Big data uncertainties

Uncertainty in and around biophysical modelling: insights from interdisciplinary research on agricultural digitalization

Agricultural digitalization is providing growing amounts of real-time digital data. Biophysical simulation models can help interpret these data. However, these models are subject to complex uncertainties, which has prompted calls for interdisciplinary research to better understand and communicate modelling uncertainties and their impact on decision-making. This article develops two corresponding insights from an interdisciplinary project in a New Zealand agricultural research organization. First, we expand on a recent Royal Society Open Science journal article (van der Bles et al. 2019 Royal Society Open Science 6, 181870 (doi:10.1098/rsos.181870)) and suggest a threefold conceptual framework to describe direct, indirect and contextual uncertainties associated with biophysical models. Second, we reflect on the process of developing this framework to highlight challenges to successful collaboration and the importance of a deeper engagement with interdisciplinarity. This includes resolving often unequal disciplinary standings and the need for early collaborative problem framing. We propose that both insights are complementary and informative to researchers and practitioners in the field of modelling uncertainty as well as to those interested in interdisciplinary environmental research generally. The article concludes by outlining limitations of interdisciplinary research and a shift towards transdisciplinarity that also includes non-scientists. Such a shift is crucial to holistically address uncertainties associated with biophysical modelling and to realize the full potential of agricultural digitalization.

Medical Big Data Is Not Yet Available: Why We Need Realism Rather than Exaggeration

Most people are now familiar with the concepts of big data, deep learning, machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) and have a vague expectation that AI using medical big data can be used to improve the quality of medical care. However, the expectation that big data could change the field of medicine is inconsistent with the current reality. The clinical meaningfulness of the results of research using medical big data needs to be examined. Medical staff needs to be clear about the purpose of AI that utilizes medical big data and to focus on the quality of this data, rather than the quantity. Further, medical professionals should understand the necessary precautions for using medical big data, as well as its advantages. No doubt that someday, medical big data will play an essential role in healthcare; however, at present, it seems too early to actively use it in clinical practice. The field continues to work toward developing medical big data and making it appropriate for healthcare. Researchers should continue to engage in empirical research to ensure that appropriate processes are in place to empirically evaluate the results of its use in healthcare.