Association between esophagogastric varices in hepatocellular carcinoma and poor prognosis after transarterial chemoembolization: A propensity score matching analysis

Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.

METHODS

The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.

CONCLUSION

Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

The prognostic value of prognostic nutritional index in postoperative onset of PAH in children with isolated VSD: a prospective cohort study based on propensity score matching analysis

Background

The mechanism of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) after surgery/intervention for isolated venticlular septal defect (VSD) in children is unknown. Reliable prognostic indicators for predicting postoperative PAH are urgently needed. Prognostic nutration index (PNI) is widely used to predict postoperative complications and survival in adults, but it is unclear whether it can be used as an indicator of prognosis in children.

Methods

A total of 251 children underwent VSD repair surgery or interventional closure in Hunan Children's Hospital from 2020 to 2023 were collected. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed using the nearest neighbor method with a caliper size of 0.2 Logistics regression analysis is used to examine factors associated with the development of PAH.

Results

The cut-off value for PNI was determined as 58.0. After 1:1 PSM analysis, 49 patients in the low PNI group were matched with high PNI group. Children in the low PNI group had higher risk of postoperative PAH (P = 0.002) than those in the high PNI group. Multivariate logistics regression analysis showed that PNI (RR: 0.903, 95% CI: 0.816-0.999, P = 0.049) and tricuspid regurgitation velocity (RR: 4.743, 95% CI: 1.131-19.897, P = 0.033) were independent prognostic factors for the development of PAH.

Conclusion

PNI can be used as a prognostic indicator for PAH development after surgery/intervention in children with isolated VSD.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Turcotte-Pugh class B

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is widely used for assessing the liver's functional reserve in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to explore the outcomes of patients with HCC and CTP class B and to investigate the prognostic accuracy of prediction models for ACLD in these patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 1143 patients with HCC and CTP class B between 2007 and 2022. We divided the patients into three subgroups based on their CTP scores: CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9. We compared the corrected Akaike information criterion among each mortality prediction model, including the CTP score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, modified ALBI score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD 3.0.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 576 (50.3%) were in the CTP-B7 group, 363 (31.8%) were in the CTP-B8 group, and 204 (17.9%) were in the CTP-B9 group. After a median follow-up of 4.6 months (interquartile range IQR 1.8-17.2 months), 963 patients died, and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 11.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 11.6%, 13.6%, and 8.3% in the CTP-B7, CTP-B8, and CTP-B9 groups, respectively. Patients in the CTP-B7 group and CTP-B8 group had comparable OS ( p = 0.089), both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group ( p < 0.001). Furthermore, the MELD 3.0 score had the lowest corrected akaike information criteria value and provided a more accurate mortality prediction than the MELD score, ALBI grade, modified ALBI grade, and CTP score.

CONCLUSION

Patients in the CTP-B7 and CTP-B8 groups had comparable OS, both of which were better than those in the CTP-B9 group. Moreover, MELD 3.0 provided the most accurate mortality prediction in patients with HCC and CTP class B.

The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and normal serum alpha fetoprotein levels

BACKGROUND

Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nevertheless, few studies have investigated the prognostic factors of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 2198 patients with HCC and normal serum AFP levels (<20 ng/mL) from 2007 to 2020. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and analyses of the prognostic factors were performed using a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Among the enrolled patients, 1385 (63%) patients were in the low-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels ≤7 ng/mL), and 813 (37%) patients were in the high-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels between 7 and 20 ng/mL). The high-normal AFP group had poorer liver functional reserve, more multiple tumors, and smaller tumor size compared to those in the low-normal AFP group. After a median follow-up of 32.4 months, 942 patients died, and the 5-year OS rate was 54.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 57.4% and 49.8% in the low-normal AFP group and high-normal AFP group, respectively (p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis showed the independent prognostic factors of poor OS were no anti-viral therapy, advanced albumin-bilirubin grades, the presence of vascular invasion, tumor size ≥5 cm, and non-curative treatment modalities. Serum AFP levels were not associated with OS according to the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Liver functional reserve, anti-viral therapy, tumor size, vascular invasion, and treatment modalities, determined the outcomes of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels, but serum AFP levels did not.

Efficacy of early re-ligation after endoscopic gastric glue injection combined with endoscopic variceal ligation in preventing rebleeding of esophagogastric varices in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The rate of rebleeding after successful hemostasis by endoscopic gastric glue injection (EGGI) combined with endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) in ruptured esophagogastric varices (EHV) in cirrhosis is still high, and a second EVL is often required, but the optimal interval between the first and second EVL has not been determined.

AIM

To explore the effect of timing of the second EVL after EGGI combined with EVL in the prevention of rebleeding from esophagogastric varices in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 121 patients with cirrhosis and hemorrhage who were treated at our hospital from May 2017 to September 2019 were retrospectively selected and divided into 1 mo group (n = 27), 2 mo group (n = 32), 3 mo group (n = 37), and > 3 mo group (n = 25) based on the interval between the first and second EVL. The curative effect, rebleeding rate, fatality rate, rate of complications and portal hemodynamic changes (splenic vein, portal vein, and left gastric vein diameter and mean blood flow velocity) after the completion of the second EVL were compared among the groups.

RESULTS

The total effective rate in the 1 mo group was 100.00% (27/27), significantly higher than those of the 2 mo [78.13% (25/32)], 3 mo [75.68% (28/37)], and > 3 mo [68.00% (17/25)] groups (P < 0.05). The rebleeding rate in the 1 mo group [3.70% (1/27)] was significantly lower than those of the 2 mo [31.25% (10/32)], 3 mo [37.84% (14/32)], and > 3 mo [68.00% (17/25)] groups (P < 0.05); the rebleeding rate in the 2 mo group was significantly lower than that of the > 3 mo group (P < 0.05). The mortality rate in the 1 mo group (0) was significantly lower than that of the > 3 mo group [24.00% (6/25)] (P < 0.05). The average blood flow velocity of the splenic vein and portal vein after the second EVL in the 1 mo group [(32.42 ± 3.36) cm/s and (27.51 ± 2.79) cm/s, respectively] were significantly higher than those of the 2 mo [(30.02 ± 2.77) cm/s and (24.55 ± 2.61) cm/s, respectively], 3 mo [(29.11 ± 3.24) cm/s and (24.19 ± 2.38) cm/s, respectively], and > 3 mo [(29.04 ± 2.81) cm/s and (23.89 ± 2.11) cm/s, respectively] groups (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Early re-ligation after EGGI combined with EVL can effectively, safely, and reliably improve the severity of varicose veins and reduce the rebleeding rate, and has a positive impact on the portal venous system.

Comparison of prognoses between cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and esophageal varices undergoing surgical resection

BACKGROUND

Esophageal varices (EV) is common and is a poor prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the outcomes between cirrhotic and noncirrhotic HCC patients with EV is not well studied. The present study aimed to investigate the clinical manifestations and prognoses of HCC patients after surgical resection stratified by the cirrhosis status.

METHODS

A total of 111 patients with HCC and EV, who underwent surgical resection, were retrospectively enrolled between July 2003 and July 2019. The diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was established using the Ishak fibrosis score F5 or F6 in the nontumor part of liver specimens. Prognostic factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

There were 85 (76.6%) and 26 (23.4%) patients with and without cirrhosis, respectively. Compared with those without cirrhosis, there were more females, less seropositive rate of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), more seropositive rate of antibody against to hepatitis C virus (HCV), less albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 1, lower platelet count, and more had tumor burden within the Milan criteria in cirrhotic patients. Cirrhotic patients had a higher risk of posthepatectomy decompensation compared to noncirrhotic patients (hazard ratio 9.577, p = 0.017). No difference was observed in overall survival and recurrence-free survival between patients with or without cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Compared with patients without cirrhosis, cirrhotic patients with HCC and EV are vulnerable to posthepatectomy decompensation. However, cirrhosis is not a poor prognostic factor of overall survival and recurrence for HCC patients after surgical resection.

Surgical resection could provide better outcomes for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and tumor rupture

We investigated the outcomes of patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identified the optimal treatment modality for such patients. We retrospectively enrolled 91 patients with treatment-naive HCC and tumor rupture at diagnosis, including 38 patients who underwent surgical resection (SR) alone, 28 patients who were treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) only, 20 patients who had a sequential combination therapy of TACE and SR, and 5 patients who received best supportive care. After a median follow-up of 13.1 months, 54 patients died. The cumulative 5 years overall survival (OS) rates were 55.1% and 0% in the SR group and non-SR group, respectively (p < 0.001). Non-SR therapy was associated with poorer OS according to a multivariate analysis with a hazard ratio of 6.649 (95% confidence interval 3.581–12.344, p < 0.001). Moreover, whether patients received TACE or not did not impact the OS in both the SR group and the non-SR group. In conclusion, for patients with HCC and tumor rupture at the time of diagnosis, SR could lead to better prognoses than non-surgery treatment modalities. Moreover, a sequential combination of TACE and SR had similar clinical outcomes when compared to SR alone.

Differential prognoses among male and female patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is significantly higher in men than women. Nonetheless, the impact of sex disparities on HCC outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to compare the clinical manifestations and prognoses between male and female patients with HCC.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 5337 consecutive patients (3976 men, 1361 women) who were diagnosed with HCC from 2007 to 2020. The prognostic factors were identified by the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Male patients were younger upon HCC diagnosis (median age 64 vs 69 years; p < 0.001) with more favorable hepatic functional reserves (39.0% vs 35.1% albumin-bilirubin grade 1; p = 0.025) but had greater tumor burdens than the female patients. Furthermore, fewer male patients underwent curative therapies for HCC compared with the female patients (49.0% vs 57.0%; p < 0.001). After a median follow-up of 20.1 months (interquartile range, 5.8-47.3 months), 3133 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival rates were 37.1% and 41.9% for male and female patients, respectively (p < 0.001). From the multivariate analysis, male sex was not an independent factor predictive of poor overall survival in all patients and in the subgroup analysis stratified by treatment modalities. When stratified by age, the female sex was an independent factor associated with lower mortality in younger (≤50 years) patients but not in older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSION

Sex was not an independent predictor of the outcome of patients with HCC, especially for those aged more than 50 years.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined With Endoscopic Therapy Is Beneficial for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Esophagogastric Varices

Background

The efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with endoscopic therapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with esophagogastric varices remains unclear.

Methods

The study has been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with the number NCT05017922 (https://register.clinicaltrials.gov). Eligible patients were divided into combined group (received TACE plus endoscopic therapy) and control group (only received TACE). The occurrence of death and bleeding episodes during the follow-up was recorded. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to compare outcomes between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine independent predictors for the survival.

Results

Eighty-nine patients were included, 42 in the combined group, others in the control group. During the follow-up, 51 patients died, the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 64.9%, 45.5%, and 34.5%. The cumulative survival was significantly higher in the combined group than in the control group (p = 0.027); the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates were 75.5%, 55.9%, 43.8% and 55.0%, 35.9%, 26.6%, respectively. Forty-four patients experienced bleeding, the bleeding rate was significantly higher in the control group than in the combined group (77.4% vs. 56.8%, p = 0.016). Multivariate analysis showed that treatment, hemoglobin, portal vein tumor thrombosis, and aspartate aminotransferase were independent predictors for overall survival; the first three factors were also independent predictors for bleeding-free survival. Patients who received primary prophylaxis had longer overall survival (p = 0.042) and bleeding-free survival (p = 0.029) than those who received secondary prophylaxis.

Conclusions

TACE combined with endoscopic therapy significantly improved survival and reduced bleeding rates in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with esophagogastric varices patients. Portal vein tumor thrombosis was a strong negative prognostic factor for both overall survival and bleeding-free survival. Primary prophylaxis improved survival benefits compared with secondary prophylaxis.

The Value of Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) on Newly Diagnosed Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Patients: A Multicenter Retrospective Study of HHLWG Based on Propensity Score Matched Analysis

Introduction

Immunonutritional status is associated with the survival of DLBCL. This multicenter retrospective study aimed to explore the prognostic value of Prognostic Nutrition Index (PNI) in DLBCL patients by using propensity score matched analysis (PSM).

Methods

A total of 990 DLBCL cases were recruited from 5 centers of Huaihai Lymphoma Working Group (HHLWG). A 1:1 PSM analysis was performed using the nearest-neighbor method, with a caliper size of 0.02. Cox regression analysis was used to examine factors associated with survival.

Results

The median age at diagnosis was 62 years and 52.5% were males, with the 3-y overall survival of 65.1%. According to the MaxStat analysis, 44 was the optimal cut-off point of PNI. After PSM analysis, a total of 282 patients in PNI < 44 group could be propensity matched to PNI ≥ 44 patients, creating a group of 564 patients. Multivariable analysis revealed that PNI, age, central nervous system involvement and International Prognostic Index (IPI) were independent prognostic factors for DLBCL. Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated that patients with low PNI in Ann Arbor Stage (III/VI), ECOG (<2), IPI (LR+LIR), GCB, and BCL-2 negative groups had a poor prognosis.

Discussion

PNI could accurately stratify the prognosis of DLBCL after PSM analysis.

The role of albumin-bilirubin grade in determining the outcomes of patients with very early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and with a single tumor <2 cm in size are classified as having Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 HCC. We aimed to investigate the role of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in predicting outcomes in patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC in Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2007 to 2015. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis.

RESULTS

There were 420 patients enrolled, including 207 with ALBI grade 1, and 213 with ALBI grade 2 or 3. After a median follow-up of 60.0 months (interquartile range, 37.2-84.6 months), 179 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 80.6% in patients with ALBI grade 1 and 53.7% in those with ALBI grade 2 or 3, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age >65 years, negative hepatitis B surface in serum, creatinine >1.0 mg/dL, platelet count ≤105/mm3, tumor size >1.5 cm, nonsurgical resection (SR) therapy, and higher ALBI grade were independent risk factors related to poor OS. Patients who underwent SR had a better OS and recurrence-free survival than those who received radiofrequency ablation, which was confirmed by a multivariate analysis and PSM analysis.

CONCLUSION

The ALBI grade can determine OS for patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC. SR can also provide a better outcome than nonsurgical treatment.

A comparison of prognoses between surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and esophagogastric varices

There has been insufficient investigation of the differences in long-term outcomes between surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and esophagogastric varices (EGV). We retrospectively enrolled 251 patients with treatment-naïve HCC and EGV who underwent SR or RFA as a first-line treatment. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 68 patients underwent SR, and the remaining 183 patients received RFA. Patients who underwent SR were younger, had better liver functional reserves, and had larger tumors. After a median follow-up duration of 45.1 months, 151 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was significantly higher among patients who underwent SR than those treated with RFA (66.7% vs. 36.8%, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age > 65 years, multiple tumors, RFA, albumin bilirubin grade > 1, and the occurrence of major peri-procedural morbidity were the independent risk factors that are predictive of poor OS. In conclusion, SR could be recommended as a first-line treatment modality for HCC patients with EGV if the patients are carefully selected and liver function is well preserved.