Jhang JY, Tzeng IS, Chou HH, Jang SJ, Hsieh CA, Ko YL, Huang HL. Association Rule Mining and Prognostic Stratification of 2-Year Longevity in Octogenarians Undergoing Endovascular Therapy for Lower Extremity Arterial Disease: Observational Cohort Study.
J Med Internet Res 2020;
22:e17487. [PMID:
33177036 PMCID:
PMC7909897 DOI:
10.2196/17487]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Revised: 05/19/2020] [Accepted: 11/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background
Two-year longevity is a crucial consideration in revascularization strategies for patients with symptomatic lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD). However, factors associated with 2-year longevity and risk stratification in octogenarians or nonagenarians have been underreported.
Objective
This paper aims to investigate the associated variables and stratify the 2-year prognosis in older patients with LEAD.
Methods
We performed logistic regression and association rule mining based on the Apriori algorithm to discover independent variables and validate their associations with 2-year longevity. Malnutrition, inflammation, and stroke factors were identified. C statistics and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to assess the impact of different numbers of malnutrition, inflammation, and stroke factors on 2-year longevity.
Results
We recruited a total of 232 octogenarians or nonagenarians (mean age 85 years, SD 4.2 years) treated with endovascular therapy. During the study period, 81 patients died, and 27 of those (33%) died from a cardiac origin within 2 years. Association rules analysis showed the interrelationships between 2-year longevity and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and nutritional status as determined by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score or Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI). The cut-off values of NLR, GNRI, and CONUT were ≥3.89, ≤90.3, and >3, respectively. The C statistics for the predictive power for 2-year longevity were similar between the CONUT score and the GNRI-based models (0.773 vs 0.760; P=.57). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 2-year longevity was worse as the number of malnutrition, inflammation, and stroke factors increased from 0 to 3 in both the GNRI-based model (92% vs 68% vs 46% vs 12%, respectively; P<.001) and the CONUT score model (87% vs 75% vs 49% vs 10%, respectively; P<.001). The hazard ratio between those with 3 factors and those without was 18.2 (95% CI 7.0-47.2; P<.001) in the GNRI and 13.6 (95% CI 5.9-31.5; P<.001) in the CONUT score model.
Conclusions
This study demonstrated the association and crucial role of malnutrition, inflammation, and stroke factors in assessing 2-year longevity in older patients with LEAD. Using this simple risk score might assist clinicians in selecting the appropriate treatment.
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