Ten existing osteoporosis prediction tools for the successful application of National Health Insurance-reimbursed anti-osteoporosis medications in long-term care residents in Taiwan

Decomposing and simplifying the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool-a module from the Taiwan-specific calculator

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) is a widely utilized country-specific calculator for identifying individuals with high fracture risk; its score is calculated from 12 variables, but its formulation is not publicly disclosed. We aimed to decompose and simplify the FRAX® by utilizing a nationwide community survey database as a reference module for creating a local assessment tool for osteoporotic fracture community screening in any country. Participants (n = 16384; predominantly women (75%); mean age = 64.8 years) were enrolled from the Taiwan OsteoPorosis Survey, a nationwide cross-sectional community survey collected from 2008 to 2011. We identified 11 clinical risk factors from the health questionnaires. BMD was assessed via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in a mobile DXA vehicle, and 10-year fracture risk scores, including major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) risk scores, were calculated using the FRAX®. The mean femoral neck BMD was 0.7 ± 0.1 g/cm2, the T-score was -1.9 ± 1.2, the MOF was 8.9 ± 7.1%, and the HF was 3.2 ± 4.7%. Following FRAX® decomposition with multiple linear regression, the adjusted R2 values were 0.9206 for MOF and 0.9376 for HF when BMD was included and 0.9538 for MOF and 0.9554 for HF when BMD was excluded. The FRAX® demonstrated better prediction for women and younger individuals than for men and elderly individuals after sex and age stratification analysis. Excluding femoral neck BMD, age, sex, and previous fractures emerged as 3 primary clinical risk factors for simplified FRAX® according to the decision tree analysis in this study population. The adjusted R2 values for the simplified country-specific FRAX® incorporating 3 premier clinical risk factors were 0.8210 for MOF and 0.8528 for HF. After decomposition, the newly simplified module provides a straightforward formulation for estimating 10-year fracture risk, even without femoral neck BMD, making it suitable for community or clinical osteoporotic fracture risk screening.