Poultry Food Assess Risk Model for Salmonella and Chicken Gizzards: I. Initial Contamination

Poultry Food Assess Risk Model for Salmonella and Chicken Gizzards: III. Dose Consumed Step

The Dose Consumed step of the Poultry Food Assess Risk Model (PFARM) for Salmonella and chicken gizzards was presented and compared to the Exposure Assessment step of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). The specific objectives were 1) to demonstrate the dose consumed step of PFARM for Salmonella and chicken gizzards; 2) to compare Salmonella dose consumed from cooked chicken gizzards to that from cross-contaminated and temperature-abused lettuce; 3) to determine if Salmonella dose consumed changed over time in a production chain; and 4) to compare PFARM and QMRA predictions of Salmonella dose consumed. The PFARM and QMRA were developed in an Excel notebook and simulated with @Risk. Salmonella prevalence and number data (P = 100) for chicken gizzards (56 g) and scenario analysis were used to address objectives 1, 2, and 4, whereas running windows of 60 consecutive chicken gizzard samples and scenario analysis were used to address objective 3. A lot size of 1,000 kg of chicken gizzards was simulated. Mean portion size was 168 g resulting in the simulation of 5,952 meals per lot. Of these, 3.69 ± 0.32% and 0.49 ± 0.07% (mean ± SD) resulted in Salmonella dose consumed of ≥1 per meal from cooked chicken gizzards and lettuce, respectively. However, the total Salmonella dose consumed per lot from cooked chicken gizzards (272 ± 27) was less (P ≤ 0.05) than from lettuce (6,050 ± 4,929) because of a few highly contaminated (>310 Salmonella) lettuce portions at consumption. Over time in the production chain, Salmonella prevalence and total dose consumed per lot changed (P ≤ 0.05) but the patterns differed. The QMRA predicted higher (P ≤ 0.05) Salmonella dose consumed per meal than PFARM. In part, this was because QMRA only simulated contaminated grams, whereas PFARM simulated contaminated and non-contaminated meals. However, other factors, which are discussed, also contributed to the overestimation of Salmonella dose consumed by QMRA.