Predictors of death among drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: A retrospective cohort study from 2009 to 2013

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for the Prediction of Unfavorable Treatment Outcome Among Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Patients in North West Ethiopia: An Application of Prediction Modelling

Background

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a global problem and a health security threat, which makes “Ending the global TB epidemic in 2035” unachievable. Globally, the unfavourable treatment outcome remains unacceptably high. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for unfavorable treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients, which can be used by clinicians as a simple clinical tool in their decision-making.

Objective

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of unfavorable treatment outcomes among MDR-TB patients in North-West Ethiopia.

Methods

We used MDR-TB data collected from the University of Gondar and Debre Markos referral hospitals. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted and a total of 517 patients were included in the study. STATA version 16 statistical software and R version 4.0.5 were used for the analysis. Descriptive statistics were carried out. A multivariable model was fitted using all potent predictors selected by the lasso regression method. A simplified risk prediction model (nomogram) was developed based on the binomial logit-based model, and its performance was described by assessing its discriminatory power and calibration. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was done to evaluate the clinical and public health impact of the developed model.

Results

The developed nomogram comprised six predictors: baseline anemia, major adverse event, comorbidity, age, marital status, and treatment supporter. The model has a discriminatory power of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.708, 0.798) and calibration test of (P-value = 0.695). It was internally validated by bootstrapping method, and it has a relatively corrected discrimination performance (AUC = 0.744, 95CI: 0.699, 0.788). The optimism coefficient was found to be 0.009. The decision curve analysis showed the net benefit of the model as threshold probabilities varied.

Conclusion

The developed nomogram can be used for individualized prediction of unfavorable treatment outcomes in MDR-TB patients for it has a satisfactory level of accuracy and good calibration. The model is clinically interpretable and was found to have added benefits in clinical practice.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among persons receiving second-line tuberculosis treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of 43 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance remains from among the most feared public health threats that commonly challenges tuberculosis treatment success. Since 2010, there have been rapid evolution and advances to second-line anti-tuberculosis treatments (SLD). However, evidence on impacts of these advances on incidence of mortality are scarce and conflicting. Estimating the number of people died from any cause during the follow-up period of SLD as the incidence proportion of all-cause mortality is the most informative way of appraising the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment outcome. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and its predictors among persons receiving the SLD in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically identified relevant studies published between January, 2010 and March, 2020, by searching PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane library, Google scholar, and Health Technology Assessment. Eligible English-language publications reported on death and/or its predictors among persons receiving SLD, but those publications that reported death among persons treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were excluded. Study features, patients' clinical characteristics, and incidence and/or predictors of mortality were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled incidence of mortality was estimated as percentage rate while risks of the individual predictors were appraised based on their independent associations with the mortality outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies were reviewed that revealed 31,525 patients and 4,976 deaths. The pooled incidence of mortality was 17% (95% CI: 15%-18%; I2 = 91.40; P = 0.00). The studies used varied models in identifying predictors of mortality. They found diagnoses of clinical conditions (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.82-3.05); excessive substance use (RR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.78-3.67); HIV and other comorbidities (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.65-2.32); resistance to SLD (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37-2.23); and male sex (RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.44) as consistent predictors of the mortality. Few individual studies also reported an increased incidence of mortality among persons initiated with the SLD after a month delay (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.98-2.60) and those persons with history of tuberculosis (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

We found about one in six persons who received SLD in sub-Saharan Africa had died in the last decade. This incidence of mortality among the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in the sub-Saharan Africa mirrors the global average. Nevertheless, it was considerably high among the patients who had comorbidities; who were diagnosed with other clinical conditions; who had resistance to SLD; who were males and substance users. Therefore, modified measures involving shorter SLD regimens fortified with newer or repurposed drugs, differentiated care approaches, and support of substance use rehabilitation programs can help improve the treatment outcome of persons with the drug-resistant tuberculosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020160473; PROSPERO.

Substance use disorders and adherence to antituberculosis medications in Southwest Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

In Ethiopia, little is known about the association between substance use disorders and adherence to antituberculosis (anti-TB) medications. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the effect of substance use disorders on adherence to anti-TB medications in Southwest Ethiopia.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTINGS

Patients were recruited from 22 health centres and four hospitals in Southwest Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

This study was conducted among 268 patients with TB, aged 18-80 in Southwest Ethiopia between October 2017 and October 2018. At baseline, patients who were exposed substance use disorders (134 patients) and unexposed to substance use disorders (134 patients) were recruited. Patients were followed for 6 months, and data were collected on three occasions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Adherence to anti-TB medications.

RESULTS

Patients with substance use disorders had consistently higher prevalence of non-adherence than those without, 16.4% versus 3.0% at baseline, 41.7% versus 14.4% at 2-month follow-up and 45.7% versus 10.8% at 6-month follow-up assessments. Patients with khat use disorder were 3.8 times more likely to be non-adherent to anti-TB medications than patients without khat use disorder (Adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=3.8, 95% CI 1.8 to 8.0). Patients who had alcohol use disorder (AUD) were also 3.2 times likely to have poor adherence compared with their counterparts (aOR=3.2, 95% CI 1.6 to 6.6). In addition, being educated (aOR=4.4, 95% CI 1.7 to 11.3), and being merchant (aOR=6.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 30.8) were associated with non-adherence to anti-TB medications.

CONCLUSION

Khat and AUDs predict greater likelihood of non-adherence to anti-TB medication. This implies the need to integrate the management for substance use disorders into the existing TB treatment services.

Predictors of mortality in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Even though the lives of millions have been saved in the past decades, the mortality rate in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis is still high. Different factors are associated with this mortality. However, there is no comprehensive global report addressing these risk factors. This study aimed to determine the predictors of mortality using data generated at the global level.

METHODS

We systematically searched five electronic major databases (PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science), and other sources (Google Scholar, Google). We used the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools to assess the quality of included articles. Heterogeneity assessment was conducted using the forest plot and I2 heterogeneity test. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 15. The pooled hazard ratio, risk ratio, and odd's ratio were estimated along with their 95% CIs.

RESULT

After reviewing 640 articles, 49 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The predictors of mortality were; being male (HR = 1.25,95%CI;1.08,1.41,I2;30.5%), older age (HR = 2.13, 95%CI;1.64,2.62,I2;59.0%,RR = 1.40,95%CI; 1.26, 1.53, I2; 48.4%) including a 1 year increase in age (HR = 1.01, 95%CI;1.00,1.03,I2;73.0%), undernutrition (HR = 1.62,95%CI;1.28,1.97,I2;87.2%, RR = 3.13, 95% CI; 2.17,4.09, I2;0.0%), presence of any type of co-morbidity (HR = 1.92,95%CI;1.50-2.33,I2;61.4%, RR = 1.61, 95%CI;1.29, 1.93,I2;0.0%), having diabetes (HR = 1.74, 95%CI; 1.24,2.24, I2;37.3%, RR = 1.60, 95%CI;1.13,2.07, I2;0.0%), HIV co-infection (HR = 2.15, 95%CI;1.69,2.61, I2; 48.2%, RR = 1.49, 95%CI;1.27,1.72, I2;19.5%), TB history (HR = 1.30,95%CI;1.06,1.54, I2;64.6%), previous second-line anti-TB treatment (HR = 2.52, 95% CI;2.15,2.88, I2;0.0%), being smear positive at the baseline (HR = 1.45, 95%CI;1.14,1.76, I2;49.2%, RR = 1.58,95%CI;1.46,1.69, I2;48.7%), having XDR-TB (HR = 2.01, 95%CI;1.50,2.52, I2;60.8%, RR = 2.44, 95%CI;2.16,2.73,I2;46.1%), and any type of clinical complication (HR = 2.98, 95%CI; 2.32, 3.64, I2; 69.9%). There are differences and overlaps of predictors of mortality across different drug-resistance categories. The common predictors of mortality among different drug-resistance categories include; older age, presence of any type of co-morbidity, and undernutrition.

CONCLUSION

Different patient-related demographic (male sex, older age), and clinical factors (undernutrition, HIV co-infection, co-morbidity, diabetes, clinical complications, TB history, previous second-line anti-TB treatment, smear-positive TB, and XDR-TB) were the predictors of mortality in patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis. The findings would be an important input to the global community to take important measures.

Tuberculosis Treatment Outcome in Patients with TB-HIV Coinfection in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious health threat to people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study aimed to identify the characteristics, unsuccessful TB treatment rate, and determinants of unsuccessful TB treatment outcome among patients with TB-HIV coinfection in Kuala Lumpur.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study. The data of all patients with TB-HIV in the federal territory of Kuala Lumpur from 2013 to 2017 were collected and reviewed. The data were retrieved from the national database (TB Information System) at the Kuala Lumpur Health Department from 1 March 2018 to 31 May 2018.

Results

Out of 235 randomly selected patients with TB-HIV, TB treatment outcome was successful in 57.9% (cured and completed treatment) and unsuccessful in 42.1% (died, failed, or lost to follow-up). Patients who did not receive DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course) (adjusted odds ratio: 21.71; 95% confidence interval: 5.36–87.94) and those who received shorter treatment duration of <6 months (aOR: 34.54; 95% CI: 5.97–199.93) had higher odds for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome.

Conclusions

Nearly half of the patients with TB-HIV had unsuccessful TB treatment outcome. Therefore, it is important to ensure that such patients receive DOTS and continuous TB treatment of >6 months. It is crucial to strengthen and widen the coverage of DOTS, especially among high-risk groups, in healthcare settings. Strict follow-up by healthcare providers is needed for patients with TB-HIV to gain treatment adherence and for better rates of successful TB treatment.

Impact of different tuberculosis history at the onset of future multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: A large, retrospective, population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The impact of tuberculosis (TB) history on the risk of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is not yet fully understood. We aimed to identify the impact of different TB history at the onset of future MDR-TB.

METHODS

A large, retrospective, population-based cohort study was performed between 2005 and 2019. A multivariable Cox model was used to evaluate independent risk factors for MDR-TB for individuals with different previous TB history (PTBH), such as newly diagnosed TB history (NDTH) and re-treated TB history (RTH).

RESULTS

Overall, 12 172 individuals with PTBH were included in this study. The main impacts of different PTBH at the onset of future MDR-TB were as follows: (a) low family income, high-risk occupation, TB patients with severe infection, extended or shortened treatment course, 2H3R3Z3E3/4H3R3 and frequency of sputum culture were significantly linked to incident MDR-TB only in individuals with NDTH (P < 0.05); (b) passive mode of TB case finding, individualised treatment regimens, 3HRZES/6HRE, duration of pulmonary cavities, excellent frequency of chest X-ray examination and duration of negative sputum smear were significantly associated with incident MDR-TB only in individuals with RTH (P < 0.05); (c) age <60 years, history of direct contact, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, unsuccessful treatment and duration of positive sputum culture were related to incident MDR-TB in both categories of PTBH individuals (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Early and differential surveillances, assessments and interventions for reducing the risk of MDR-TB among individuals with different PTBH play a key role.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

The purposes of this study were to construct a comprehensive nomogram for providing a simple, precise and personalized prediction of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) after completing pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (CPTBT). A matched case–control study (1:2 ratios) was performed between 2005 and 2018. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate independent predictors of incident MDR-TB after the CPTBT. A comprehensive nomogram was developed based on the multivariable Cox model. Overall, 1, 836 participants were included in this study. We developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram that predicted the individualized risk of incident MDR-TB by using 10 parameters after the CPTBT. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.807–0.859] and 0.871 (95% CI 0.773–0.969) for the training and validation sets, respectively, which indicated adequate discriminatory power. The calibration curves for the risk of incident MDR-TB showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation in the training and validation sets, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity of nomogram was indicated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Through this clinic tool, TB control executives could more precisely monitor, estimate and intervene the risk of incident MDR-TB among individuals with CPTBT.

Poor treatment outcome and its predictors among drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess poor treatment outcomes and their predictors among drug-resistant tuberculosis patients treated in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Data were searched from both electronic databases and other sources. From the whole search, 404 articles were reviewed and 17 articles that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included in the analysis. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist was followed and Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal checklist was used for assessing the quality. Risk of bias was assessed using forest plot and Egger's regression test. Data were analyzed using STATA version 15 and Review Manager Software version 5.3.

RESULTS

The overall pooled proportion of poor treatment outcome and mortality was 17.86% and 15.13% respectively. The incidence density rate of poor treatment outcome and mortality was 10.41/1000 person-months and 9.28/1000 person-months respectively. Survival status and successful treatment outcomes were 76.97% and 63.82% respectively. HIV positivity, non-HIV comorbidities, clinical complications, extrapulmonary involvement, undernutrition, anemia, treatment delay, lower body weight, and older age were the predictors of poor treatment outcome.

CONCLUSION

Better survival and treatment success rates were noted in Ethiopia as compared to the global average. The majority of the poor treatment outcomes occurred within the intensive phase. Early initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment would be important for successful treatment outcomes.

Contributing risk factors towards the prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Malaysia: A systematic review

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is one of the causes of morbidity and mortality, among tuberculosis (TB) patients in Malaysia. The purpose of this study was to determine the contributing risk factors to the prevalence of (MDR-TB). Based on systematic review of the literatures, the prevalence of (MDR-TB) and associated risk factors in Malaysia were studied. A comprehensive search of Scopus, Science direct, PubMed, DOAJ, CINAHL Plus, MyJournal, BIREME, BMC Public Health, Medline, CAB, and WoS databases were done among the articles published from 31st January 2009 to 31st December 2018, by using medical subject heading (MeSH) key terms. In conducting this study, a total of 121 papers were reviewed and 23 research papers were chosen, because, they met the specific inclusion criteria. In this study, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, homeless status, living in urban area and history of imprisonment were evaluated as demographic factors, while educational level and employment were evaluated as socioeconomic factors. Smoking, diabetes mellitus, drug abuse and alcohol consumption were evaluated as behavioral and co-morbidities factors. All the studies chosen as eligible to be included in this study were found to be significantly associated with the risk factors for the prevalence of (MDR-TB). It was also discovered that, lack of adequate knowledge among the community and (TB) patients might increase the progression of (MDR-TB) infection in Malaysia. Thus, carried out a systematic review provided a comprehensive assessment of the (MDR-TB) which might be useful for policy makers, health experts and researchers to implement appropriate strategies for (TB) infected population in Malaysia.

Impact of ethnic disparities on the treatment outcomes of HIV-negative drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: A call for a culturally-sensitive community intervention approach

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the treatment outcomes of HIV-negative drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) patients in Malaysia. With respect to this issue, this study aimed to determine factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes among drug-resistant TB patients at the Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study involved laboratory-confirmed drug-resistant TB patients from January 2009 to June 2013. Multiple logistic regression was used to model the outcome, which was subsequently defined according to the recent definition by the WHO. Data were analysed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows version 22.0.

RESULTS

Among the 403 patients who were analysed, 66.7% of them were found to have achieved successful outcomes (cured or completed treatment) while the remaining 33.3% had unsuccessful treatment outcomes (defaulted, treatment failure or died). Multivariable analysis showed that the type of resistance [polyresistant (aOR = 3.00, 95% CI 1.14-7.91), multidrug resistant (MDR) (aOR = 5.37, 95% CI 2.65-10.88)], ethnicity [Malay (aOR = 2.86, 95% CI 1.44-5.71), Indian (aOR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.20-7.70)], and treatment non-compliance (aOR = 26.93, 95% CI 14.47-50.10) were the independent risk factors for unsuccessful treatment outcomes among this group of patients. Notably, the odds of unsuccessful treatment outcome was also amplified among Malay MDR-TB patients in this study (aOR = 13.44, 95% CI 1.99-90.58).

CONCLUSION

In order to achieve better treatment outcomes for TB, effective behavioural intervention and thorough investigation on ethnic disparities in TB treatment are needed to promote good compliance.

More Than Malnutrition: A Review of the Relationship Between Food Insecurity and Tuberculosis

Despite a significant reduction in tuberculosis (TB) mortality over the past decade, TB remains a leading cause of death worldwide. Food insecurity-through pathways such as malnutrition, mental health impact, and high-risk health behaviors-affects the risk of TB disease, treatment failure, and mortality. We searched the literature for studies reporting on the links between food insecurity and TB. In contrast to the well-documented interactions between food insecurity and HIV/AIDS, we found that the association between food insecurity and TB remains largely understudied-this is especially true with regard to non-nutritional correlations. Mental health and behavioral linkages between TB and food insecurity deserve further attention. An improved understanding of the pathways through which food insecurity impacts TB is crucial to inform evidence-based integration of interventions such as psychological counseling, psychiatric care, harm reduction programs, and efforts to address social determinants of disease within current TB programs.

Demographic, socio-economic and behavior as risk factors of tuberculosis in Malaysia: a systematic review of the literature

Background Tuberculosis (TB) is making a comeback and has remained one of the main causes of mortality among the list of infectious diseases in Malaysia. Objective To evaluate the burden and demographic, socio-economic and behavior as risk factors of TB among communities in Malaysia. Method A comprehensive search of Scopus, Sciencedirect, PubMed, DOAJ, CINAHL Plus, MyJournal, BIREME, BMC Public Health, Medline, CAB, EMBASE (Excerpta Medica dataBASE), and Web of Science (WoS) was undertaken from the articles published from 1st January 2008 to 31st December 2017 using medical subject heading (MeSH) key terms. Results Of 717 papers screened, 31 eligible studies met our inclusion criteria. Gender, age, marriage status, ethnicity, area of living, being in prison and immigrant were evaluated as demographic factors, while educational level, occupation and household income were evaluated as socio-economic factors. For behavioral factors, smoking, drug abuse, alcohol consumption and other lifestyle practices were evaluated. However, not all the studies were statistically significantly associated with these risk factors. Studies on household income were few and too small to permit a conclusion. We also did not find any study that investigated TB infection among sex workers. Conclusion Immigrant in high density settings may increase the progression of disease infection in Malaysia. The risk factors for the development of TB, specifically in a high-risk population, should be targeted through the implementation of specialized interventions. Further research into the role of indoor and outdoor physical environments is required to better understand the association between the physical environment and the social environment with TB infection.

High use of private providers for first healthcare seeking by drug-resistant tuberculosis patients: a cross-sectional study in Yangon, Myanmar

Background

Drug resistance is a growing challenge to tuberculosis (TB) control worldwide, but particularly salient to countries such as Myanmar, where the health system is fragmented across the public and private sector. A recent systematic review has identified a critical lack of evidence for local policymaking, particularly in relation to drivers of drug-resistance that could be the target of preventative efforts. To address this gap from a health systems perspective, our study investigates the healthcare-seeking behavior and preferences of recently diagnosed patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), focusing on the use of private versus public healthcare providers.

Methods

The study was conducted in ten townships across Yangon with high DR-TB burden. Patients newly-diagnosed with DR-TB by GeneXpert were enrolled, and data on healthcare-seeking behavior and socio-economic characteristics were collected from patient records and interviews. A descriptive analysis of healthcare-seeking behavior was followed by the investigation of relationships between socio-economic factors and type of provider visited upon first feeling unwell, through univariate logistic regressions.

Results

Of 202 participants, only 8% reported first seeking care at public facilities, while 88% reported seeking care at private facilities upon first feeling unwell. Participants aged 25–34 (Odds Ratio = 0.33 [0.12–0.95]) and males (Odds Ratio = 0.39 [0.20–0.75]) were less likely to visit a private clinic or hospital than those aged 18–24 and females, respectively. In contrast, participants with higher income were more likely to utilize private providers. Prior to DR-TB diagnosis, 86% of participants took medications from private providers. After DR-TB diagnosis, only 7% of participants continued to take medications from private providers.

Conclusion

In urban Myanmar, most patients shifted to being managed exclusively in the public sector after being formally diagnosed with DR-TB. However, since the vast majority of DR-TB patients first visited private providers in the period leading to diagnosis, related issues such as unregulated quality of care, potential delays to diagnosis, and lack of care continuity may greatly influence the emergence of drug-resistance. A greater understanding of the health system and these healthcare-seeking behaviors may simultaneously strengthen TB control programmes and reduce government and out-of-pocket expenditures on the management of DR-TB.