Future costs in cost effectiveness analysis

Incorporating future unrelated medical costs in cost-effectiveness analysis in China

The occurrence of future unrelated medical costs is a direct consequence of life-prolonging interventions, but most pharmacoeconomic guidelines recommend the exclusion of these costs. The Chinese guidelines were updated in 2020, taking an exclusion approach for the future unrelated medical cost. We notice the research surrounding this issue continues in other countries and leads to an inclusion recommendation in some guidelines. Meanwhile, this issue has not been discussed in China, reflecting an urgent need for extensive research on its impact. We reviewed the theoretical and practical studies surrounding the inclusion of future unrelated medical costs, summarised the landscape of guidelines in other jurisdictions. We found that the inclusion would increase the internal and external consistency of economic evaluation and the comparability of results between different jurisdictions. However, more research is needed surrounding this issue. We proposed a future research agenda to inform the update of Chinese guidelines. We recommend research on individual-level healthcare reimbursement data and end-of-life costs from hospital administrative data to generate the age-specific, sex-specific and condition-specific costs. We also recommend establishing a formal process to evaluate the ethical and economic impact of including future unrelated medical costs and adjust the threshold accordingly in the guidelines.

Estimating the costs of non-medical consumption in life-years gained for economic evaluations

Including the costs of non-medical consumption in life years gained in economic evaluations of medical interventions has been controversial. This paper focuses on the estimation of these costs using Dutch data coming from cross-sectional household surveys consisting of 56,569 observations covering the years 1978-2004. We decomposed the costs of consumption into age, period and cohort effects and modelled the non-linear age and cohort patterns of consumption using P-splines. As consumption patterns depend on household composition, we also estimated household size using the same regression modeling strategy. Estimates of non-medical consumption and household size were combined with life tables to estimate the impact of including non-medical survivor costs on an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results revealed that including non-medical survivor costs substantially increases the ICER, but the effect varies strongly with age. The impact of cohort effects is limited but ignoring household economies of scale results in a significant overestimation of non-medical costs. We conclude that a) ignoring the costs of non-medical consumption results in an underestimation of the costs of life prolonging interventions b) economies of scale within households with respect to consumption should be accounted for when estimating future costs.

Broadening the Concept of Value: A Scoping Review on the Option Value of Medical Technologies

OBJECTIVES

A recent debate in health economics and outcomes research community identified option value as one of the elements warranting consideration in the assessment of medical technologies. To conduct a scoping review of contributions on option value in the healthcare sector and identify relevant conceptual aspects and methods used to incorporate it in standard economic evaluations.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted up to July 2020 to identify contributions from electronic bibliographic database and gray literature. Data on the proposed definitions of option value, theoretical implications of its use in economic evaluations, and methods used to estimate it were extracted and analyzed.

RESULTS

We found 57 eligible studies. Three different definitions emerged: insurance value, real option value, and option value of survival. Focusing on the latter (24 studies), we analyzed in depth 8 empirical applications across 7 therapeutic areas. The most relevant methodological challenges were on the perspective used in economic evaluations and how to robustly manage forecasting uncertainty, update cost-effectiveness thresholds, and avoid double-counting issues. For empirical studies assessing the total value of the technology, including option value, estimates ranged from +7% to +469% of its conventional value.

CONCLUSIONS

This review synthesizes theoretical and empirical aspects on option value of healthcare technologies and proposes a terminology to distinguish 3 different concepts identified. Future work should focus primarily on agreeing on whether option value should be included in economic evaluations and, if so, on developing and validating reliable methods for its ex-ante estimation.

Catalog of Age- and Medical Condition-Specific Healthcare Costs in the United States to Inform Future Costs Calculations in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop a catalog of annual age- and medical condition-specific healthcare costs per capita among those who are living at a certain age (survivors) and the costs attributable to death itself for those who die at that age (decedents) in the United States. These estimates can be used to inform future cost calculations in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA).

METHODS

We discussed a theoretical framework to incorporate futures costs in CEA. We used the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data to estimate costs among survivors and death costs. For survivors, we obtained cost estimates nonparametrically using kernel-based regression and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing. We estimated costs attributable to death using inverse probability weights comparing decedents with appropriately weighted survivors at a given age after controlling for more than 270 clinical condition classifications, demographics, and interactions. Cost estimates were expressed in 2019 US dollar and also separately by sex and specific clinical conditions.

RESULTS

Average healthcare costs per capita among survivors, expectedly, rose over age from $2062 (95% confidence interval [CI] $1553-$2478) during the first year of life to $14 307 (95% CI $13 706-$14 956) at 85 years or older. Average costs of death were $44 569 (95% CI $14 304-$67 369) during the first year of life and declined by -$321 (95% CI -$620 to -$22) per 1 year older.

CONCLUSIONS

The US catalog of healthcare costs among survivors and decedents can facilitate calculations of future costs in CEA as recommended by the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

Incorporating Future Medical Costs: Impact on Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

The inclusion of future medical costs in cost-effectiveness analyses remains a controversial issue. The impact of capturing future medical costs is likely to be particularly important in patients with cancer where costly lifelong medical care is necessary. The lack of clear, definitive pharmacoeconomic guidelines can limit comparability and has implications for decision making.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impact of incorporating future medical costs through an applied example using original data from a clinical study evaluating the cost effectiveness of a sepsis intervention in cancer patients.

METHODS

A decision analytic model was used to capture quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs of cancer patients from an Australian healthcare system perspective over a lifetime horizon. The evaluation considered three scenarios: (1) intervention-related costs (no future medical cost), (2) lifetime cancer costs and (3) all future healthcare costs. Inputs to the model included patient-level data from the clinical study, relative risk of death due to sepsis, cancer mortality and future medical costs sourced from published literature. All costs are expressed in 2017 Australian dollars and discounted at 5%. To further assess the impact of future costs on cancer heterogeneity, variation in survival and lifetime costs between cancer types and the implications for cost-effectiveness analysis were explored.

RESULTS

The inclusion of future medical costs increased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) resulting in a shift from the intervention being a dominant strategy (cheaper and more effective) to an ICER of $7526/QALY. Across different cancer types, longer life expectancies did not necessarily result in greater lifetime healthcare costs. Incremental costs differed across cancers depending on the respective costs of managing cancer and survivorship, thus resulting in variations in ICERs.

CONCLUSIONS

There is scope for including costs beyond intervention costs in economic evaluations. The inclusion of future medical costs can result in markedly different cost-effectiveness results, leading to higher ICERs in a cancer population, with possible implications for funding decisions.

Future Costs in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: Past, Present, Future

There has been considerable debate on the extent to which future costs should be included in cost-effectiveness analyses of health technologies. In this article, we summarize the theoretical debates and empirical research in this area and highlight the conclusions that can be drawn for current practice. For future related and future unrelated medical costs, the literature suggests that inclusion is required to obtain optimal outcomes from available resources. This conclusion does not depend on the perspective adopted by the decision maker. Future non-medical costs are only relevant when adopting a societal perspective; these should be included if the benefits of non-medical consumption and production are also included in the evaluation. Whether this is the case currently remains unclear, given that benefits are typically quantified in quality-adjusted life-years and only limited research has been performed on the extent to which these (implicitly) capture benefits beyond health. Empirical research has shown that the impact of including future costs can be large, and that estimation of such costs is feasible. In practice, however, future unrelated medical costs and future unrelated non-medical consumption costs are typically excluded from economic evaluations. This is explicitly prescribed in some pharmacoeconomic guidelines. Further research is warranted on the development and improvement of methods for the estimation of future costs. Standardization of methods is needed to enhance the practical applicability of inclusion for the analyst and the comparability of the outcomes of different studies. For future non-medical costs, further research is also needed on the extent to which benefits related to this spending are captured in the measurement and valuation of health benefits, and how to broaden the scope of the evaluation if they are not sufficiently captured.

Screening and brief intervention for obesity in primary care: cost-effectiveness analysis in the BWeL trial

Background

The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled 1882 consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). After one year, the support group lost 1.4kg more (95%CI 0.9 to 2.0): 2.4 kg versus 1.0 kg. We use a cohort simulation to predict effects on disease incidence, quality of life, and healthcare costs over 20 years.

Methods

Randomly sampling from the trial population, we created a virtual cohort of 20 million adults and assigned baseline morbidity. We applied the weight loss observed in the trial and assumed weight regain over four years. Using epidemiological data, we assigned the incidence of 12 weight-related diseases depending on baseline disease status, age, gender, body mass index. From a healthcare perspective, we calculated the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) accruing and calculated the incremental difference between trial arms in costs expended in delivering the intervention and healthcare costs accruing. We discounted future costs and benefits at 1.5% over 20 years.

Results

Compared with advice, the support intervention reduced the cumulative incidence of weight-related disease by 722/100,000 people, 0.33% of all weight-related disease. The incremental cost of support over advice was £2.01million/100,000. However, the support intervention reduced health service costs by £5.86 million/100,000 leading to a net saving of £3.85 million/100,000. The support intervention produced 992 QALYs/100,000 people relative to advice.

Conclusions

A brief intervention in which physicians opportunistically endorse, offer, and facilitate a referral to a behavioural weight management service to patients with a BMI of at least 30kg/m² reduces healthcare costs and improves health more than advising weight loss.

Development of an Official Guideline for the Economic Evaluation of Drugs/Medical Devices in Japan

OBJECTIVES

In Japan, cost-effectiveness evaluation was implemented on a trial basis from fiscal year 2016. The results will be applied to the future repricing of drugs and medical devices. On the basis of a request from the Central Social Insurance Medical Council (Chuikyo), our research team drafted the official methodological guideline for trial implementation. Here, we report the process of developing and the contents of the official guideline for cost-effectiveness evaluation.

METHODS

The guideline reflects discussions at the Chuikyo subcommittee (e.g., the role of quality-adjusted life-year) and incorporates our academic perspective. Team members generated research questions for each section of the guideline and discussions on these questions were carried out. A draft guideline was prepared and submitted to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), and then to the subcommittee. The draft guideline was revised on the basis of the discussions at the subcommitte, if appropriate.

RESULTS

Although the "public health care payer's perspective" is standard in this guideline, other perspectives can be applied as necessary depending on the objective of analysis. On the basis of the discussions at the subcommittee, quality-adjusted life-year will be used as the basic outcome. A discount rate of 2% per annum for costs and outcomes is recommended. The final guideline was officially approved by the Chuikyo general assembly in February 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first officially approved guideline for the economic evaluation of drugs and medical devices in Japan. The guideline is expected to improve the quality and comparability of submitted cost-effectiveness data for decision making.

Unrelated Future Costs and Unrelated Future Benefits: Reflections on NICE Guide to the Methods of Technology Appraisal

In this editorial, we consider the vexing issue of 'unrelated future costs' (for example, the costs of caring for people with dementia or kidney failure after preventing their deaths from a heart attack). The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance is not to take such costs into account in technology appraisals. However, standard appraisal practice involves modelling the benefits of those unrelated technologies. We argue that there is a sound principled reason for including both the costs and benefits of unrelated care. Changing this practice would have material consequences for decisions about reimbursing particular technologies, and we urge future research to understand this better. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Future Costs, Fixed Healthcare Budgets, and the Decision Rules of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Life-saving medical technologies result in additional demand for health care due to increased life expectancy. However, most economic evaluations do not include all medical costs that may result from this additional demand in health care and include only future costs of related illnesses. Although there has been much debate regarding the question to which extent future costs should be included from a societal perspective, the appropriate role of future medical costs in the widely adopted but more narrow healthcare perspective has been neglected. Using a theoretical model, we demonstrate that optimal decision rules for cost-effectiveness analyses assuming fixed healthcare budgets dictate that future costs of both related and unrelated medical care should be included. Practical relevance of including the costs of future unrelated medical care is illustrated using the example of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Our findings suggest that guidelines should prescribe inclusion of these costs.

Cost effectiveness of lanthanum carbonate in chronic kidney disease patients in Spain before and during dialysis

AIMS

In Spain, the first line treatment of hyperphosphatemia in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) consists of calcium-based phosphate binders (CB). However, their use is associated with vascular calcification and an increased mortality risk. The aim of this study was to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of second-line Lanthanum Carbonate (LC) treatment in patients not responding to CB (calcium carbonate and calcium acetate).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A lifetime Markov model was developed considering three health states (predialysis, dialysis and death). Transitions between states and efficacy data were obtained from randomized clinical trials and the European Dialysis and Transplant Association Annual report. Mortality rate was adjusted with the relative risk related to serum phosphorus levels. According to the Spanish healthcare system perspective, only medical direct costs were considered. Dialysis costs (2013 prices in Euros) were obtained from diagnosis-related groups. Drug costs were derived from ex-factory prices, adjusted with 7.5% mandatory rebate. Quality of life estimates were based on a published systematic review. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted.

RESULTS

At the end of simulation, costs per patient with LC therapy were 1,169 and 5,044 with CB alone. 4.653 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) were gained per patient treated with LC, and 4.579 QALYs with CB. CB therapy is dominated by the LC strategy (i.e. lower costs, higher QALYs). Assuming a 30,000/QALY threshold, LC was dominant in 100% of PSA simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

LC is a cost-effective second line treatment of hyperphosphatemia in CKD patients irrespective of dialysis status in Spain.

Pertussis post-exposure prophylaxis among household contacts: a cost-utility analysis

Background

Recent pertussis outbreaks have prompted re-examination of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) strategies, when immunization is not immediately protective. Chemoprophylaxis is recommended to household contacts; however there are concerns of clinical failure and significant adverse events, especially with erythromycin among infants who have the highest disease burden. Newer macrolides offer fewer side effects at higher drug costs. We sought to determine the cost-effectiveness of PEP strategies from the health care payer perspective.

Methods

A Markov model was constructed to examine 4 mutually exclusive strategies: erythromycin, azithromycin, clarithromycin, or no intervention, stratified by age group of contacts (“infant”, “child”, and “adult”). Transition probabilities, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from the literature. Chronic neurologic sequelae were modeled over a lifetime, with costs and QALYs discounted at 5%. Associated health outcomes and costs were compared, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated in 2012 Canadian dollars. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the degree of uncertainty in the results.

Findings

Azithromycin offered the highest QALYs in all scenarios. While this was the dominant strategy among infants, it produced an ICER of $16,963 per QALY among children and $2,415 per QALY among adults. Total QALYs with azithromycin were 19.7 for a 5-kg infant, 19.4 for a 10-year-old child, and 18.8 for a 30-year-old adult. The costs of azithromycin PEP among infants, children and adults were $1,976, $132 and $90, respectively. While results were sensitive to changes in PEP effectiveness (11% to 87%), disease transmission (variable among age groups) and hospitalization costs ($379 to $59,644), the choice of strategy remained unchanged.

Interpretation

Pertussis PEP is a cost-effective strategy compared with no intervention and plays an important role in contact management, potentially in outbreak situations. From a healthcare payer perspective, azithromycin is the optimal strategy among all contact groups.

Incorporation of future costs in health economic analysis publications: current situation and recommendations for the future

Future costs are not usually included in economic evaluations. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of published economic analyses that incorporate future costs. A systematic review was conducted of economic analyses published from 2008 to 2013 in three general health economics journals: PharmacoEconomics, Value in Health and the European Journal of Health Economics. A total of 192 articles met the inclusion criteria, 94 of them (49.0%) incorporated future related medical costs, 9 (4.2%) also included future unrelated medical costs and none of them included future nonmedical costs. The percentage of articles including future costs increased from 2008 (30.8%) to 2013 (70.8%), and no differences were detected between the three journals. All relevant costs for the perspective considered should be included in economic evaluations, including related or unrelated, direct or indirect future costs. It is also advisable that pharmacoEconomic guidelines are adapted in this sense.

Ethical objections against including life-extension costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: a consistent approach

One of the major ethical concerns regarding cost-effectiveness analysis in health care has been the inclusion of life-extension costs ("it is cheaper to let people die"). For this reason, many analysts have opted to rule out life-extension costs from the analysis. However, surprisingly little has been written in the health economics literature regarding this ethical concern and the resulting practice. The purpose of this work was to present a framework and potential solution for ethical objections against life-extension costs. This work found three levels of ethical concern: (i) with respect to all life-extension costs (disease-related and -unrelated); (ii) with respect to disease-unrelated costs only; and (iii) regarding disease-unrelated costs plus disease-related costs not influenced by the intervention. Excluding all life-extension costs for ethical reasons would require-for reasons of consistency-a simultaneous exclusion of savings from reducing morbidity. At the other extreme, excluding only disease-unrelated life-extension costs for ethical reasons would require-again for reasons of consistency-the exclusion of health gains due to treatment of unrelated diseases. Therefore, addressing ethical concerns regarding the inclusion of life-extension costs necessitates fundamental changes in the calculation of cost effectiveness.

Apples and oranges: a comparison of costing methods for obesity

Obesity has escalated to epidemic proportions over the past 30 years resulting in increased disease burden and healthcare costs. The aim of this paper was to analyse different costing methods for obesity. Several databases have been searched to identify eligible literature estimating obesity cost. These were categorized into databases, patient-attributable fraction (PAF) and modelling studies. Studies from the United States were used to explore effects of study designs on cost outcomes. Our results show that cost outcomes are largely affected by underlying study designs, such as population size, age, cost categories (medical expenditure vs. total costs), length of the data collection and body mass index cut-offs. Three study types are likely to have an impact on reported costs, with modelling studies providing the most conservative estimates. Database studies can help to increase the overall awareness of the economic burden of obesity. PAF studies can make the obesity disease more tangible by drawing connections to diseases. Decision makers need to be aware of the different purposes and weaknesses of the studies when interpreting cost outcomes. Further research is needed to refine the existing methods and provide high-quality data accounting for the complexity of the disease.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of guideline-directed medical therapies for heart failure

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to quantify the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), beta-blocker (BB), and aldosterone antagonist (AldA) therapies for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

BACKGROUND

There are evidence-based, guideline-directed medical therapies for patients with HFrEF, but the incremental cost-effectiveness of these therapies has not been well studied using contemporary data.

METHODS

A Markov model with lifetime horizon and two states, dead or alive, was created. We compared HFrEF patients treated with diuretic agents alone to three treatment arms: 1) ACEI therapy alone; 2) ACEI+BB; and 3) ACEI+BB+AldA. Sequential therapy was also analyzed. HF hospitalizations and mortality rates were based on representative studies. Costs of medications and inpatient and outpatient care were accounted for.

RESULTS

Treatment with ACEI and ACEI+BB strictly dominated treatment with diuretics only (cost-saving). The greatest gains in quality-adjusted life-years occurred when all 3 guideline-directed medications were provided. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ACEI+BB+AldA versus ACEI+BB and ACEI+BB versus ACEI was <$1,500 per quality-adjusted life-year. The cost-savings in the ACEI and ACEI+BB cohorts compared to that with diuretics alone were $444 and $33, respectively. Assuming lower treatment costs and lower hospitalization rates in the ACEI+BB+AldA arm resulted in greater cost-savings. Even in the most unfavorable situations, the ICER was <$10,000 per life-year gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis demonstrates that medical treatment of HFrEF is highly cost-effective and may even result in cost-savings. Greater efforts to ensure optimal adherence to guideline-directed medical therapy for HFrEF are warranted.

Health care expenditures from living longer--how much do they matter

Health interventions have two major downstream cost effects, savings from reducing morbidity and expenditures from living longer. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many economic evaluations, particularly those that are trial-based, do not include health care costs from living longer. The purpose of this study was therefore to determine the bias from excluding life extension costs in economic evaluations. To this end, the impact of health changes on savings from preventing disease and costs of living longer was examined in the US Medicare population between 1998 and 2004. A state transition decision model with two health states (alive and dead) was built from an extended payer's perspective. It used Medicare expenditure data on survivors and decedents. Health changes were measured in terms of both morbidity and mortality reduction. The analysis shows that life extension costs cancel out savings from reducing morbidity. Users of economic evaluations may use this finding to estimate the bias when life extensions costs are not included in the analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of therapies for chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis: a case for excluding dialysis costs

In many jurisdictions, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) plays an important role in determining drug coverage and reimbursement and, therefore, has the potential to impact patient access. Health economic guidelines recommend the inclusion of future costs related to the intervention of interest within CEAs but provide little guidance regarding the definition of 'related'. In the case of CEAs of therapies that extend the lives of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis but do not impact the need for or the intensity of dialysis, the determination of the relatedness of future dialysis costs to the therapy of interest is particularly ambiguous. The uncertainty as to whether dialysis costs are related or unrelated in these circumstances has led to inconsistencies in the conduct of CEAs for such products, with dialysis costs included in some analyses while excluded in others. Due to the magnitude of the cost of dialysis, whether or not dialysis costs are included in CEAs of such therapies has substantial implications for the results of such analyses, often meaning the difference between a therapy being deemed cost effective (in instances where dialysis costs are excluded) or not cost effective (in instances where dialysis costs are included). This paper explores the issues and implications surrounding the inclusion of dialysis costs in CEAs of therapies that extend the lives of dialysis patients but do not impact the need for dialysis. Relevant case studies clearly demonstrate that, regardless of the clinical benefits of a life-extending intervention for dialysis patients, and due to the high cost of dialysis, the inclusion of dialysis costs in the analysis essentially eliminates the possibility of obtaining a favourable cost-effectiveness ratio. This raises the significant risk that dialysis patients may be denied access to interventions that are cost effective in other populations due solely to the high background cost of dialysis itself. Finally, the paper presents a case for excluding dialysis costs in CEAs of therapies that extend the lives of patients receiving dialysis but do not impact the need for dialysis. The argument is founded on the following: (i) health economic guidelines imply that dialysis costs are unrelated to such therapies and therefore should not be included in CEAs of such therapies; (ii) the high cost and cost-effectiveness ratio associated with dialysis place an unreasonable and insurmountable barrier to demonstrating the cost effectiveness of such therapies, particularly since the decision to fund dialysis has already been made; and (iii) current clinical and reimbursement practices include the use of such therapies for patients with CKD receiving dialysis. We conclude that the exclusion of dialysis costs in such cases is methodologically correct given current health economic guidelines and is consistent with current practices regarding the treatment of dialysis patients.

[Costs of diseases with long-term survival]

In the past decades medical progress in the treatment of fatal diseases has led to substantial improvement of survival. This long-term survival has financial consequences for health care and society. In this article methodological challenges of measuring the costs of long-term survival are presented. In this regard the costs of long-term treatment, indirect costs, unrelated future health care costs and discounting of costs are highlighted and illustrated by examples. A methodological challenge related to the economic evaluation of therapies leading to long-term survival is the consideration of unrelated future health care costs occurring in life years gained. In the literature the issue of unrelated future health care costs is discussed comprehensively on a methodological-theoretical basis. In economic evaluations published in the literature, these costs have rarely been considered so far, which may cause biased results. Concerning the comparability of study results, a standardization of the methods of measuring costs is desirable.

The evaluation of lifestyle interventions in the Netherlands

Current investments in preventive lifestyle interventions are relatively low, despite the significant impact of unhealthy behaviour on population health. This raises the question of whether the criteria used in reimbursement decisions about healthcare interventions put preventive interventions at a disadvantage. In this paper, we highlight the decision-making framework used in the Netherlands to delineate the basic benefits package. Important criteria in that framework are ‘necessity’ and ‘cost-effectiveness’. Several normative choices need to be made, and these choices can have an important impact on the evaluation of lifestyle interventions, especially when making these criteria operational and quantifiable. Moreover, the implementation of the decision-making framework may prove to be difficult for lifestyle interventions. Improvements of the decision-making framework in the Netherlands are required to guarantee sound evaluations of lifestyle interventions aimed at improving health.

Using a genetic, observational study as a strategy to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of pharmacological CCR5 blockade in dialysis patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Randomized clinical trials are expensive and time consuming. Therefore, strategies are needed to prioritise tracks for drug development. Genetic association studies may provide such a strategy by considering the differences between genotypes as a proxy for a natural, lifelong, randomized at conception, clinical trial. Previously an association with better survival was found in dialysis patients with systemic inflammation carrying a deletion variant of the CC-chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5). We hypothesized that in an analogous manner, pharmacological CCR5 blockade could protect against inflammation-driven mortality and estimated if such a treatment would be cost-effective.

METHODS

A genetic screen and treat strategy was modelled using a decision-analytic Markov model, in which patients were screened for the CCR5 deletion 32 polymorphism and those with the wild type and systemic inflammation were treated with pharmacological CCR5 blockers. Kidney transplantation and mortality rates were calculated using patient level data. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness of the genetic screen and treat strategy was &OV0556;18 557 per life year gained and &OV0556;21 896 per quality-adjusted life years gained. Concordance between the genetic association and pharmacological effectiveness was a main driver of cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses showed that even a modest effectiveness of pharmacological CCR5 blockade would result in a treatment strategy that is good value for money.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacological blockade of the CCR5 receptor in inflamed dialysis patients can be incorporated in a potentially cost-effective screen and treat programme. These findings provide formal rationale for clinical studies. This study illustrates the potential of genetic association studies for drug development, as a source of Mendelian randomized evidence from an observational setting.

Cost-effectiveness of lanthanum carbonate in the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in chronic kidney disease before and during dialysis

OBJECTIVES

Hyperphosphatemia is a common and harmful condition in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We determined the cost-effectiveness of the noncalcium-based phosphate binder lanthanum carbonate (LC) as second-line treatment of hyperphosphatemia after therapy failure with calcium-based binders (CB).

METHODS

Two CKD populations were modeled: 1) predialysis CKD patients and 2) incident dialysis patients. Patients not responding to CB with a serum phosphate (SP) level >5.5 mg/dl received a trial with LC. Patients not responding to LC (SP >4.6 mg/dl) returned to CB treatment. Patient-level data were obtained from clinical trials in predialysis and dialysis. Time-dependent, life-long Markov models (discounting at 3.5% annually) were developed, using a UK National Health Service perspective.

RESULTS

The health gains with second-line LC treatment compared to CB treatment were 44 and 56 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the predialysis and incident dialysis populations, respectively. Second-line LC was a cost-saving strategy in the predialysis population because of the cost-savings of delayed CKD progression. Second-line LC was cost-effective at £6900 (90% probability interval: £5800-£8300) per QALY gained in the dialysis population. Results were robust to plausible variations in other model parameters; inclusion of future unrelated dialysis costs had a large influence on cost-effectiveness estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Second-line treatment with LC is associated with considerable clinical benefits and good value for money in CKD, irrespective of dialysis status. These results support Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines to treat CKD patients with hyperphosphatemia irrespective of dialysis status.

Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK

Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations--the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8·5 million cases of diabetes, 5·7-7·3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492,000-669,000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by £1·9-2 billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits.

Economic evaluation and the postponement of health care costs

The inclusion of medical costs in life years gained in economic evaluations of health care technologies has long been controversial. Arguments in favour of the inclusion of such costs are gaining support, which shifts the question from whether to how to include these costs. This paper elaborates on the issue how to include cost in life years gained in cost effectiveness analysis given the current practice of economic evaluations in which costs of related diseases are included. We combine insights from the theoretical literature on the inclusion of unrelated medical costs in life years gained with insights from the so-called 'red herring' literature. It is argued that for most interventions it would be incorrect to simply add all medical costs in life years gained to an ICER, even when these are corrected for postponement of the expensive last year of life. This is the case since some of the postponement mechanism is already captured in the unadjusted ICER by modelling the costs of related diseases. Using the example of smoking cessation, we illustrate the differences and similarities between different approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion about the proper way to account for medical costs in life years gained in economic evaluations.

Standardizing the inclusion of indirect medical costs in economic evaluations

A shortcoming of many economic evaluations is that they do not include all medical costs in life-years gained (also termed indirect medical costs). One of the reasons for this is the practical difficulties in the estimation of these costs. While some methods have been proposed to estimate indirect medical costs in a standardized manner, these methods fail to take into account that not all costs in life-years gained can be estimated in such a way. Costs in life-years gained caused by diseases related to the intervention are difficult to estimate in a standardized manner and should always be explicitly modelled. However, costs of all other (unrelated) diseases in life-years gained can be estimated in such a way. We propose a conceptual model of how to estimate costs of unrelated diseases in life-years gained in a standardized manner. Furthermore, we describe how we estimated the parameters of this conceptual model using various data sources and studies conducted in the Netherlands. Results of the estimates are embedded in a software package called 'Practical Application to Include future Disease costs' (PAID 1.0). PAID 1.0 is available as a Microsoft® Excel tool (available as Supplemental Digital Content via a link in this article) and enables researchers to 'switch off' those disease categories that were already included in their own analysis and to estimate future healthcare costs of all other diseases for incorporation in their economic evaluations. We assumed that total healthcare expenditure can be explained by age, sex and time to death, while the relationship between costs and these three variables differs per disease. To estimate values for age- and sex-specific per capita health expenditure per disease and healthcare provider stratified by time to death we used Dutch cost-of-illness (COI) data for the year 2005 as a backbone. The COI data consisted of age- and sex-specific per capita health expenditure uniquely attributed to 107 disease categories and eight healthcare provider categories. Since the Dutch COI figures do not distinguish between costs of those who die at a certain age (decedents) and those who survive that age (survivors), we decomposed average per capita expenditure into parts that are attributable to decedents and survivors, respectively, using other data sources.

On the welfare theoretic foundation of cost-effectiveness analysis-the case when survival is not affected

This paper develops a welfare theoretic foundation for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) when survival is not affected. With this foundation, all costs and their corresponding utility-terms should be included. A key question, though, is whether these utility-terms are consistent with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (utility) theory or not. The results show that health care costs and changes in the utility of health should be included. However, as QALYs do not capture the utility of changes in consumption (as this utility must be independent of health, according to QALY theory), the corresponding changes in consumption costs should be excluded. Regarding the costs for changes in absence from work, these should only be included if the utility of changes in the amount of leisure is included. As no QALY theory has been developed that includes this utility, it is unclear how to handle these costs (even if there are arguments for excluding them). For changes in productivity at work, though, there are robust arguments for the inclusion of these costs. Overall, it seems difficult to provide a clear basis for CEA in economic welfare theory when also including non-medical goods such as consumption and leisure.

WHO Guide for standardisation of economic evaluations of immunization programmes

Traditional EPI vaccines are considered to be among the most efficient uses of scarce health care resources. Today, there are many under-used and new vaccines available. In the short- to medium-term, these vaccines will not cost the few cents per dose the traditional vaccines do, but will be 'multi-dollar' vaccines. Decision-makers will need information, among other things, on their relative cost-effectiveness. A number of reviews have indicated that there is scope for improving the transparency, completeness and comparability of economic evaluations of vaccination programmes. Thus, there is a need to improve the quality of economic evaluations of vaccination programmes. Adherence to general guidelines would increase the quality, interpretability and transferability of future analyses. However, there is reason to believe that there might also be a need for more specific advice for vaccination programmes. For example, there are inconsistencies in the methods used to estimate the future benefits of vaccination programmes and the relative efficiency of these programmes can be sensitive to some of the more controversial aspects of general guidelines, such as the inclusion of indirect costs and the discounting of health outcomes. This guide has been developed in order to meet the needs of decision-makers for relevant, reliable and consistent economic information. They aim to provide clear and concise, practical and high quality guidance for those who conduct economic evaluations.

Future costs in economic evaluation. A comment on Lee

In a recent article in this journal Lee argued that indirect medical costs should be ignored in economic evaluations. To reach this conclusion, Lee uses an unrealistic and uncommon budget constraint. This comment highlights a number of methodological problems in Lee's analysis. Moreover, it highlights that looking at current practice of economic evaluation, Lee's model implies the inclusion rather than the exclusion of indirect medical costs.

Unrelated medical costs in life-years gained: should they be included in economic evaluations of healthcare interventions?

Which costs and benefits to consider in economic evaluations of healthcare interventions remains an area of much controversy. Unrelated medical costs in life-years gained is an important cost category that is normally ignored in economic evaluations, irrespective of the perspective chosen for the analysis. National guidelines for pharmacoeconomic research largely endorse this practice, either by explicitly requiring researchers to exclude these costs from the analysis or by leaving inclusion or exclusion up to the discretion of the analyst. However, the inclusion of unrelated medical costs in life-years gained appears to be gaining support in the literature.This article provides an overview of the discussions to date. The inclusion of unrelated medical costs in life-years gained seems warranted, in terms of both optimality and internal and external consistency. We use an example of a smoking-cessation intervention to highlight the consequences of different practices of accounting for costs and effects in economic evaluations. Only inclusion of all costs and effects of unrelated medical care in life-years gained can be considered both internally and externally consistent. Including or excluding unrelated future medical costs may have important distributional consequences, especially for interventions that substantially increase length of life. Regarding practical objections against inclusion of future costs, it is important to note that it is becoming increasingly possible to accurately estimate unrelated medical costs in life-years gained. We therefore conclude that the inclusion of unrelated medical costs should become the new standard.