MELD: the holy grail of organ allocation?

MELD3.0 is superior to MELDNa and MELD for prediction of mortality in patients with cirrhosis: An external validation in a multi-ethnic population

Background and Aim

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was updated to MELDNa and recently to MELD3.0 to predict survival of cirrhotic patients. We validated the prognostic performance of MELD3.0 and compared with MELDNa and MELD amongst cirrhotic inpatients.

Methods

Demographical, clinical, biochemical, and survival data of cirrhotic inpatients in Singapore General Hospital (SGH) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2018, were studied retrospectively. Patients were followed up from first admission in 2018 until death or until 01 April 2023. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) were computed for the discriminative effects of MELD3.0, MELDNa, and MELD to predict 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities. AUROC was compared with DeLong's test. The cutoff MELD3.0 score for patients at high risk of 30-day mortality was determined using Youden's Index. Survival curves of patients with MELD3.0 score above and below the cutoff were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared with log-rank analysis.

Results

Totally 862 patients were included (median age 71.0 years [interquartile range, IQR: 64.0-79.0], 65.4% males, 75.8% Chinese). Proportion of patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A/B/C were 55.5%/35.5%/9.0%. Median MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD scores were 12.2 (IQR: 8.7-18.3)/11.0 (IQR: 8.0-17.5)/10.3 (IQR: 7.8-15.0). Median time of follow-up was 51.9 months (IQR: 8.5-59.6). The proportion of 30-/90-/365-day mortalities was 5.7%/13.2%/26.9%. AUROC of MELD3.0/MELDNa/MELD in predicting 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortalities, respectively, were 0.823/0.793/0.783, 0.754/0.724/0.707, 0.682/0.654/0.644 (P < 0.05). Optimal cutoff to predict 30-day mortality was MELD3.0 > 19 (sensitivity = 67.4%, specificity = 82.4%). Patients with MELD3.0 > 19, compared with patients with MELD3.0 ≤ 19, had shorter median time to death (98.0 days [IQR: 28.8-398.0] vs 390.0 days [IQR: 134.3-927.5]), and higher proportion of 30-day mortality (68.8% vs 43.0%) (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

MELD3.0 performs better than MELDNa and MELD in predicting mortality in cirrhotic inpatients. MELD3.0 > 19 predicts higher 30-day mortality.

[Hepatopulmonary syndrome]

The hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) is one of the lung diseases associated with cirrhosis and portal hypertension. It should be discussed for any dyspnea in cirrhotic patients. HPS is a pulmonary vascular disease characterized by intrapulmonary vascular dilatations (IPVD). The pathogenesis is complex and seems to rely on communications between the portal and pulmonary circulations. The diagnosis is based on a triad of liver disease and portal hypertension, evidence of IPVDs, and impaired gas exchange (alveolar-arterial oxygen difference [A-aO2]≥15mmHg). HPS impairs prognosis (23% survival at 5years) and patients' quality of life. Liver transplantation (LT) allows regression of IPDVD in almost 100% of cases, normalization of gas exchange and improves survival with a 5-year post-LT survival between 76 and 87%. It is the only curative treatment, indicated in patients with severe HPS, defined by an arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) below 60mmHg. When LT is not indicated or feasible, long-term oxygen therapy may be proposed as a palliative treatment. A better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms is needed to improve the therapeutic possibilities in a near future.

Establishment and evaluation of an early prediction model of hepatorenal syndrome in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

In China, hepatorenal syndrome is a serious complication in the decompensated stage of hepatitis B cirrhosis, which requires early clinical intervention, so the early diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome is crucial. This study establishes a new predictive model based on serum biomarkers for the early diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome.

METHODS

Patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned to the training dataset and validation dataset at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the risk factors for hepatorenal syndrome. The identified risk factors were used to establish and verify a model.

RESULTS

This study included 255 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, including 184 in the training group and 71 in the validation group. The multivariate logistic regression model was established in the training group and verified in the validation group. Logistic regression showed that hemoglobin (OR 0.938, 95% CI 0.908-0.969), total bilirubin (OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.008-1.021) and creatinine (OR 1.079, 95% CI 1.043-1.117) were independent risk factors for hepatorenal syndrome (P < 0.05). These were used to establish the model. In the training group and the validation group, the area under the ROC curve of the nomogram for the diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome was 0.968 and 0.980, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The three serum biomarkers, including hemoglobin, total bilirubin and creatinine, can be used as independent early predictors of hepatorenal syndrome in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Congenital heart disease-associated liver disease: a narrative review

Congenital heart diseases (CHD) can be associated with liver dysfunction. The cause for liver impairment can result out of a wide spectrum of different causes, including liver congestion, hypoxemia or low cardiac output. Fortunately, most CHD show a good long-term outcome from a cardiac perspective, but great attention should be paid on non-cardiac health problems that develop frequently in patients suffering from CHD. The treatment of liver dysfunction in CHD requires a close multidisciplinary management in a vulnerable patient collective. Unfortunately, structured recommendations on the management of liver dysfunction in patients with CHD are scarce. The objective of this review is to provide insights on the pathophysiology and etiologies of liver dysfunction as one of the most relevant non-cardiac problems related to CHD. Furthermore, we advise here on the management of liver disease in CHD with special attention on assessment of liver dysfunction, management of portal hypertension as well as on surveillance and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A multidisciplinary perspective may help to optimize morbidity and mortality in the long-term course in these patients. However, as evidence is low in many aspects, we encourage the scientific community to perform prospective studies to gain more insights in the treatment of liver dysfunction in patients with CHD.

Model for end-stage liver disease-sodium underestimates 90-day mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unclear whether the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score captures the clinical severity of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared observed 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF with expected mortality based on the calculated MELD-Na and examined the consequences of underestimating clinical severity.

METHODS

We identified patients with ACLF during hospitalization for cirrhosis in 127 VA hospitals between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2014. We examined MELD-Na scores by ACLF presence and grade. We used actual and observed 90-day mortality to estimate a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by ACLF presence and grade. We used transplant center-specific median MELD-Na at transplantation (MMaT) to estimate the proportion likely to receive priority for liver transplantation (LT) based on MELD-Na alone.

RESULTS

Of 71,894 patients hospitalized for decompensated cirrhosis, 18,979 (26.4%) patients met the criteria for ACLF on admission. The median (P25-P75) MELD-Na on admission was 26 (22-30) for ACLF compared to 15 (12-20) for patients without ACLF; it was 24 (21-27), 27 (23-31), and 32 (26-37) for ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively. At 90 days, 40.0% of patients with ACLF died (30.8%, 41.6% and 68.8% with ACLF-1, 2 and 3, respectively) compared to 21.3% of patients without ACLF. Compared to the expected death rate based on MELD-Na, mortality risk was higher for patients with ACLF, SMR (95% CI): 1.52 (1.48-1.52), 1.46 (1.41-1.51), 1.50 (1.44-1.55), 1.66 (1.58-1.74) for overall ACLF, ACLF-1, -2 and -3, respectively. Only 9.1% of patients with ACLF reached the national median MELD-Na of 35 and between 17.3% to 35.1% exceeded the MMaT at any center. During index admission, 589 (0.8%) patients with ACLF were considered for LT evaluation and 16 (0.1%) were listed for LT.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis, MELD-Na did not capture 90-day mortality risk in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF are at a disadvantage in the current MELD-Na-based system.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a condition marked by multiple organ failures in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of death. Liver transplantation may be the only curative treatment for these patients. A score called model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) helps guide donor liver allocation for transplantation in the United States. The higher the MELD-Na score in a patient, the more likely that a patient receives a liver transplant. Our study data showed that MELD-Na score underestimates the risk of dying at 90 days in patients with ACLF. Thus, physicians need to start liver transplant evaluation early instead of waiting for a high MELD-Na number.

Organ donation in the US and Europe: The supply vs demand imbalance

Organ donation and transplantation remain the best and most cost-effective clinical solution for end-stage organ failure. Several agencies across the US and Europe provide legislative, regulatory, and humanitarian services to generate smoother applications in all transplantation processes and donor-recipient relationships. US and European statistics present nine types of grafts, with kidneys being the most transplanted organ worldwide. However, organ shortage, religion, underrepresented minority groups, difficulties in obtaining consent, lack of understanding, and general ethical concerns present challenging barriers to organ donation, reflecting the complexity of graft procurement and allocation. Breaking down these barriers to reduce the organ-supply imbalance requires an appropriate multifaceted approach. Some of the key areas include increasing the potential donor pool and consent rates, apt organ allocation, and improving organ health. Additionally, suitable policies and standardized guidelines for both donors and recipients, alongside educational initiatives, are needed to ensure patient safety and global awareness. Looking forward, novel and effective research plans and initiatives are needed if we are to avoid a colossal supply-demand gap.

Incidence and mortality of renal dysfunction in cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common complication in cirrhosis. Renal dysfunction may be crucial for the outcomes of cirrhotic patients with acute GIB. This study aimed to explore the incidence and mortality of renal dysfunction in cirrhotic patients with acute GIB.Methods: The PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched. We pooled the incidence and mortality of renal dysfunction in cirrhotic patients using a random-effect model. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated.Results: Seventeen studies were included. The pooled incidence of renal dysfunction was 21% (95%CI = 16%-25%) in cirrhosis with acute GIB. In subgroup analyses, the pooled incidence of renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), and renal impairment were 21%, 25%, and 15%, respectively. The pooled mortality was 46% (95%CI = 37%-55%) in cirrhosis with acute GIB and renal dysfunction. In subgroup analyses, the pooled mortality in patients with renal failure, AKI, and renal impairment were 42%, 47%, and 49%, respectively. Renal dysfunction significantly increased the mortality of cirrhosis with acute GIB (OR = 4.92; 95%CI = 3.47-6.96; P < 0.001).Conclusion: Renal dysfunction is a common indicator for poor outcome of cirrhosis with acute GIB. Prevention of renal dysfunction in such patients should be further explored.

Indications for liver transplantation in adults : Recommendations of the Austrian Society for Gastroenterology and Hepatology (ÖGGH) in cooperation with the Austrian Society for Transplantation, Transfusion and Genetics (ATX)

Liver transplantation has emerged as an established and well-accepted therapeutic option for patients with acute and chronic liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. The disproportion between recipients and donors is still an ongoing problem that has only been solved partially over the last centuries. For several patients no life-saving organs can be distributed. Therefore, objective and internationally established recommendations regarding indication and organ allocation are imperative. The aim of this article is to establish evidence-based recommendations regarding the evaluation and assessment of adult candidates for liver transplantation. This publication is the first Austrian consensus paper issued and approved by the Austrian Society of Gastroenterology and Hepatology in cooperation with the Austrian Society of Transplantation, Infusion and Genetics.

Association between ratio of sodium to potassium in random urine samples and renal dysfunction and mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are used to assess renal function and are an independent prognostic factor for patients with decompensated cirrhosis, but are impractical for routine use. We investigated whether the ratio of sodium to potassium in randomly collected urine samples (UNa/K) is associated with mortality and renal dysfunction in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites.

METHODS

We assessed data from 126 consecutive patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites (93 men; age, 56 ± 12 y; 55% with viral-related disease) admitted to the Hippokration General Hospital of Thessaloniki, Greece, from September 2010 through January 2012. At admission, clinical and laboratory variables were recorded, including GFR, measured with (51)Cr-EDTA. Urine samples were collected, and UNa/K was determined. We evaluated the association between UNa/K and patient mortality using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

Forty-one patients (32%; group 1) had a GFR less than 60 mL/min, and 85 patients (68%; group 2) had a GFR of 60 mL/min or greater. In the multivariable analysis, 3 variables were associated independently with the presence of severe renal dysfunction (GFR, <60 mL/min): age (odds ratio [OR], 0.93; P = .008), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.05; P = .022), and UNa/K (OR, 1.5; P = .025). A UNa/K less than 1.0 had high sensitivity and a negative predictive value for the presence of GFR less than 60 mL/min (79% and 87%, respectively) and mortality (68% and 91%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with decompensated cirrhosis and ascites, a ratio of sodium to potassium of less than 1 in randomly collected urine samples was associated with renal dysfunction and short-term mortality. These findings require confirmation in additional studies.

Prospective analysis of 44 consecutive liver transplants performed at a university hospital

PURPOSE

To analyze the intraoperative and immediate postoperative biochemical parameters of patients submitted to orthotopic liver transplantation.

METHODS

Forty four consecutive orthotopic liver transplants performed from October 2009 to December 2010 were analyzed. The patients (38 male and eight female) were divided into two groups: group A, survivors, and group B, non-survivors. Fifty percent of group A patients were Chid-Pugh C, 40% Chid-Pugh B and 10% Chid-Pugh A. In group B, 52% of the patients were Chid-Pugh C, 41% Chid-Pugh B, and 17% Chid-Pugh A. All orthotopic liver transplants were performed by the piggy-back technique without a portacaval shunt in an anhepatic phase. ALT, AST, LDH and lactate levels were determined preoperatively, at five, 60 minutes after arterial revascularization of the graft and 24 and 48 hours after the end of the surgery.( or: after the surgery was finished).

RESULTS

There were no preoperative clinical differences (Child and Meld) between the two groups. The times of warm and hypothermal ischemia were similar for both groups (p>0.05). Serum aminotransferases levels at five and 60 minutes after arterial revascularization of the graft were similar (p>0.05) for both groups, as also were lactate levels at the time points studied. There was no significant difference in Δ lactate between groups at any time point studied (p>0.05). No significant difference was observed between groups during the first 24 and 48 hours after surgery (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

No significant difference in any of the parameters studied was observed between groups. Under the conditions of the present study and considering the parameters evaluated, no direct relationship was detected between the intraoperative situation and the type of evolution of the patients of the two groups studied.

Can joint analysis of postoperative MELD, base excess and blood lactate levels be used as an index of postoperative outcome for patients submitted to liver transplantation?

PURPOSE: The objective of the present study was to evaluate the postoperative levels of classical or pure MELD and changes in lactate or base excess (BE) levels as possible predictive factors of the type of outcome of patients submitted to orthotopic liver trasplantation (OLT). METHODS: The study was conducted on 60 patients submitted to OLT at the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirão Preto, USP, between October 2008 and March 2012. The 30 latest survivor (S) and non-survivor (NS) cases were selected. All liver transplants were performed using the piggy-back technique. ALT, AST, BE and blood lactate values were determined for each group at five time points (immediate preoperative period, end of hypothermal ischemia, 5 and 60 minutes after arterial revascularization and in the immediate postoperative period, when the postoperative MELD was also calculated. RESULTS: The aminotransferases reached a maximum increase 24 hours after surgery in both the S and NS groups. There was a significantly higher increase in BE and blood lactate in the NS group, especially after 5 minutes of afterial reperfusion of the graft, p<0.05. There was no significant difference in preoperative MELD between groups (p>0.05), while the postoperative MELD was higher in the NS than in the S group (p<0.05) CONCLUSION: Joint analysis of postoperative MELD, BE and blood lactate can be used as an index of severity of the postoperative course of patients submitted to liver transplantation.

Role of splenectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and hypersplenism

INTRODUCTION

Hypersplenism with thrombocytopenia is a common complication of cirrhosis with portal hypertension. We evaluated the role of splenectomy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in terms of the improvement of biochemical indices and liver volume.

METHODS

Nineteen patients with HCC underwent liver resection and splenectomy from January 2000 to December 2009. Thirty-nine patients who underwent liver resection during the same period were enrolled as case-matched controls. We performed a retrospective review of prospectively collected data. We analysed the results of biochemical tests, disease-free survival and overall survival and measured the liver volume before and at 90 days after operation.

RESULTS

Preoperative white blood cell counts (P = 0.001), platelet counts (P = 0.021), total bilirubin (P ≤ 0.001) and prothrombin time by international normalized ratio (P = 0.043) were significantly different. However, these results had converged to similar levels 90 days after the operation. The degree of increment in liver volume were similar (P = 0.763). In splenectomy group, portal vein thrombosis developed in eight patients and all patients except one recovered using only conservative treatments. There was an operative mortality because of liver failure by thrombosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although splenectomy may induce thrombosis, liver failure and subsequent mortality, splenectomy may improve liver function and expand the indication of liver resection if postoperative management is conducted conservatively.

Is close monitoring in the intensive care unit necessary after elective liver resection?

Purpose

Many surgical patients are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), resulting in an increased demand, and possible waste, of resources. Patients who undergo liver resection are also transferred postoperatively to the ICU. However, this may not be necessary in all cases. This study was designed to assess the necessity of ICU admission.

Methods

The medical records of 313 patients who underwent liver resections, as performed by a single surgeon from March 2000 to December 2010 were retrospectively reviewed.

Results

Among 313 patients, 168 patients (53.7%) were treated in the ICU. 148 patients (88.1%) received only observation during the ICU care. The ICU re-admission and intensive medical treatment significantly correlated with major liver resection (odds ratio [OR], 6.481; P = 0.011), and intraoperative transfusions (OR, 7.108; P = 0.016). Patients who underwent major liver resection and intraoperative transfusion were significantly associated with need for mechanical ventilator care, longer postoperative stays in the ICU and the hospital, and hospital mortality.

Conclusion

Most patients admitted to the ICU after major liver resection just received close monitoring. Even though patients underwent major liver resection, patients without receipt of intraoperative transfusion could be sent to the general ward. Duration of ICU/hospital stay, ventilator care and mortality significantly correlated with major liver resection and intraoperative transfusion. Major liver resection and receipt of intraoperative transfusions should be considered indicators for ICU admission.

Which score system can best predict recipient outcomes after living donor liver transplantation?

INTRODUCTION

Many scoring systems have been suggested to predict the outcomes of deceased donor liver transplantations. The aims of this study were to compare the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with respect to other scores among patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) seeking to evaluate the best system to correlate with postoperative outcomes after LDLT.

METHODS

We analyzed retrospectively data from 202 adult patients who underwent LDLT from January 2008 to July 2010. We calculated preoperative MELD, MELD-sodium, MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO), integrated MELD, United Kingdom MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health evaluation II (APACHE II), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores in all patients. We analyzed the correlation of each score with postoperative laboratory results, as well as survival at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after LDLT.

RESULTS

There was significant positive correlation between all scores and peak total bilirubin during the first 7 days after LDLT. The MELD score showed the greatest correlation with peak total bilirubin (r=0.745). APACHE II and SOFA scores at 6 months and 1 year after LDLT and MESO score at 1 year after LDLT showed acceptable discrimination performance {area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC)>0.7, while other scoring systems showed poor discrimination. However, the AUCs of each score were not significantly different from the MELD score AUC.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score most correlated with total bilirubin after LDLT, while the APACHE II and SOFA scores seemed to correlate with mortality after LDLT.

Renal failure and cirrhosis: a systematic review of mortality and prognosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To evaluate renal failure (RF) in cirrhosis to determine and quantify its prognostic significance.

METHODS

Studies were identified by MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, ISI Web of Science (1977-2010); search terms included renal failure, mortality, and cirrhosis. Included studies (n=74) reported >10 patients and mortality data (8088 patients). Mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months was evaluated with respect to Child-Pugh score, serum creatinine, ascites, ICU status or sepsis, prospective study design, and publication year. Pooled odds ratio (POR) for death was compared for RF vs. non-RF (5668 patients).

RESULTS

Overall median mortality for RF patients was 67%: 58% at 1 month and 63% (IQR 54-79) at 12 months. POR for death RF vs. non-RF patients was 7.6 (95%CI 5.4-10.8). Overall mortality before 2005 (1264 patients) was 74% and after 2005 (2833 patients) was 63% with a marked reduction only at 30 days (71% vs. 52%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a measure of the increased risk of death in cirrhosis with renal failure. RF increases mortality 7-fold, with 50% of patients dying within one month. Preventative strategies for RF are needed.

MELD-based indices as predictors of mortality in chronic liver disease patients who undergo emergency surgery with general anesthesia

BACKGROUND

Underlying chronic liver disease is associated with high morbidity and mortality after emergency surgery, which complicates clinical decisions over performing such surgery. In addition, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is limited in its ability to predict postoperative residual liver function. This study was designed to determine whether the scores of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-based indices are effective predictors of mortality following emergency surgery in patients with chronic liver disease.

METHOD

Medical records of 53 chronic liver disease patients who underwent emergency surgery under general anesthesia from 2001 to 2008 were analyzed retrospectively.

RESULTS

Median preoperative CTP score was 6 (5-12); MELD, 11 (6-33); MELD-Na, 15 (7-34); integrated MELD (iMELD), 33 (14-64); and MELD to sodium ratio, 8 (4-24). During a median 11-month follow-up period, 19 (35.8%) patients died. Five of them (26.3%) had operative mortality (i.e., mortality within 30 days after surgery). On multivariate analysis, CTP class C was correlated with operative mortality, and estimated blood loss above 300 ml and the iMELD score above 35 were significantly correlated with overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

iMELD reflects underlying liver function and predicts overall mortality more accurately than CTP and other MELD-based indices scores do in chronic liver disease patients after emergency surgery with general anesthesia.

Model for end-stage liver disease exceptions committee activity in Argentina: does it provide justice and equity among adult patients waiting for a liver transplant?

BACKGROUND

In 2005, the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based allocation system was adopted to assess potential liver transplant (LT) recipients in Argentina. The aim of the present study was to revise the activity of the MELD Exception Experts Committee.

METHODS

Between 2005 and 2009, 1623 patients were listed for LT. Regulation provides extra-MELD points for amyloidosis, hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) and T(2) hepatocellular carcinoma (T(2) HCC). Centres could also request priority for other situations. Using a prospective database, we identified patients in whom priority points were requested. Pathology reports of explanted livers were analysed for patients with T(2) HCC.

RESULTS

From 234 out of 1623 (14.4%) requests, the overall approval rate was 60.2% including: 2 amyloidosis, 6 HPS, 111 T(2) HCC and 22 non-regulated situations. Of the 111 patients with T(2) HCC, 6 died (5.4%), 8 had tumour progression (7.2%), 94 were transplanted (84.2%) and 3 are still waiting. An explants correlation showed that presumed diagnosis of T(2) HCC was incorrect in 20/94 (22%) and was correct in only 41/94 (43%) cases being T(1) HCC in 9 and T(3) HCC in 23.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD exceptions are frequently requested in Argentina. Unfortunately, most receiving priority points for T(2) HCC benefited by medical error or imaging limitations. An intense review process is urgently needed to maintain equity and justice in the allocation system.

Predictors of minimal hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIM

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) impairs patient's daily functioning of life. Predictors of MHE in cirrhotic patients have not been evaluated.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 200 cirrhotic patients (Child A, 74 [37%]; Child B, 72 [36%]; Child C, 54 [27%]) were evaluated by psychometry, P300 auditory event-related potential (P300ERP) and critical flicker frequency (CFF). MHE was diagnosed by abnormal psychometry (>2 S.D.) and P300ERP (>2.5 S.D.). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of MHE.

RESULTS

Eighty-two (41%) patients were diagnosed to have MHE - 26/74 (35%) in Child A, 26/72 (36%) in Child B and 30/54 (56%) in Child C. Ninety-seven (48.5%) patients had abnormal psychometric tests, and 96 (48%) had prolonged P300ERP (>358 ms). Sixteen (16.5%) patients with abnormal psychometry had P300ERP < 358 ms, and 15 (14.5%) patients with normal psychometry results had P300ERP > 358 ms. One hundred and three patients had CFF value < 39 Hz with specificity of 86.6% and sensitivity of 72.9% for MHE. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) (17.9 +/- 5.7 vs. 13.4 +/- 4.2, P = 0.005), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (8.4 +/- 2.5 vs. 7.7 +/- 2.2, P = 0.02), ammonia (104.8 +/- 37.9 vs. 72.5 +/- 45.2 micromol/L, P = 0.001) and CFF (37.0 +/- 2.8 vs. 41.0 +/- 3.4 Hz, P = 0.001) were significantly higher in MHE as compared to non-MHE patients. Ninety-one (45.5%) patients had MELD > 15.5, 115 (57.5%) had CTP score > 7.5, while 93 (46.5%) had venous ammonia > 84.5 micromol/L. On univariate analysis, MELD (8.52 [95% CI, 4.46-16.26; P = 0.001]), CFF (17.34 [95% CI, 8.16-36.85; P = 0.001]) and venous ammonia (7.80 [95% CI, 4.11-14.81; P = 0.003]) were associated with MHE; while CTP score (1.51 [95% CI, 0.85-2.69; P = 0.30]) was not significant. On multivariate analysis, MELD, CFF and venous ammonia were predictive of MHE.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of MHE in this study was 41%; and MELD > 15.5, CFF < 39 Hz and venous ammonia > 84.5 micromol/L were predictive of MHE.

Disparities in organ allocation and access to liver transplantation in the USA

Liver transplantation has become the standard of care for the treatment of chronic liver disease. In 1986, the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) was formed to ensure the just and equitable allocation of donor livers. At the time, UNOS decided to use the Childs-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system to determine the degree of liver disease in potential transplant patients. Unfortunately, it was shown that the Childs-Turcotte-Pugh system was easily manipulated and did not provide equal access to donor organs. Owing to this fact, the Model of End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was instituted by UNOS in February 2002. While the institution of MELD has shown an improvement in organ allocation and outcomes, disparities still exist. This article discusses UNOS and the MELD allocation system as well as the racial, geographic and gender disparities that occur despite the institution of the MELD system.

Combined MELD and blood lipid level in evaluating the prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis

AIM: To evaluate the prognostic value of the combined model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and blood lipid level in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS: A total of 198 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were enrolled into the study. The values of triglyceride (TG), cholesterol (TC), high density lipoproteins (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) of each patient on the first day of admission were retrieved from the medical records, and MELD was calculated. All the patients were followed up for 1 year. The relationship between the change of blood lipid level and the value of MELD score was studied by analysis of variance. The prognostic factors were screened by multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Draw Kaplan-Meier survival curves were drawn.

RESULTS: Forty-five patients died within 3 mo and 83 patients died within 1 year. The levels of TG, TC, HDL and LDL of the death group were all lower than those of the survivors. The serum TG, TC, HDL and LDL levels were lowered with the increase of the MELD score. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that MELD ≥ 18 and TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L were independent risk factors for prognosis of decompensated cirrhosis. Survival analysis showed that MELD ≥ 18 combined with TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L can clearly discriminate between the patients who would survive and die in 1 year.

CONCLUSION: MELD ≥ 18 and TC ≤ 2.8 mmol/L are two important indexes to predict the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Their combination can effectively predict the long-term prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C in patients with advanced liver disease and after liver transplantation

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) represents one of the major causes for end-stage liver disease worldwide. Although liver transplantation offers an effective treatment, HCV reinfection of the transplanted graft is a critical and almost inevitable complication with major influence on graft- and patient survival. Pre-transplant antiviral therapy in advanced liver disease is limited by poor tolerance and only applicable to mildly decompensated patients but was able to show promising results in patients reaching negative viral load when undergoing transplantation. Prophylactic therapy with HCV antibodies during the anhepatic phase has not been shown to be effective in studies to date. Antiviral therapy after transplantation but before evidence of reinfection, so called pre-emptive treatment, is limited by frequent complications and a high rate of side effects. The mainstay of management represents directed antiviral therapy after evidence of recurrence of chronic Hepatitis C. With a combination therapy of pegylated interferon and ribavirin, sustained virologic response rates of 25-45% are achieved. However, tolerability is often poor, and the need of dose reduction is frequent. To date, there is no general consensus on modality, timing and dosing of antiviral treatment of HCV in patients with advanced liver disease and after liver transplantation. More randomised, controlled trials are needed. Moreover, upcoming new treatment approaches, e.g. specifically targeted antiviral therapy for hepatitis C (STAT-C) with HCV-specific polymerase and protease inhibitors, may represent a therapeutic alternative.

Cryptogenic liver disease in HIV-seropositive men

OBJECTIVES

In the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), liver disease has become a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-seropositive individuals. Although liver disease is commonly caused by viral co-infection, it has also been described in patients without viral hepatitis. In this study, we determined clinical factors associated with the development of cryptogenic liver disease in HIV-infected individuals.

METHODS

HIV-seropositive and -seronegative patients undergoing evaluation for liver transplantation were selected if they met clinical criteria for cryptogenic liver disease. Clinical data were collected retrospectively, and radiological and histological data were reviewed separately.

RESULTS

Nine HIV-seropositive individuals were compared with 41 HIV-seronegative patients with cryptogenic liver disease. Only one HIV-seropositive patient (11%) had cirrhosis, compared to 39 HIV-seronegative patients (93%) (P<0.001). Three HIV-infected patients (33%) had histological evidence of nodular regenerative hyperplasia. HIV-seropositive patients had significantly lower body mass indices, and lower Child-Pugh-Turcotte and Model for Endstage Liver Disease scores than HIV-seronegative patients (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced cryptogenic liver disease in HIV-infected patients is infrequently caused by cirrhosis, and more frequently by nodular regenerative hyperplasia. This disease entity may become more common in the HAART era, and may contribute to an increased morbidity in HIV-infected individuals.

Drug-Induced Liver Disease and Drug Use Considerations in Liver Disease

Chronic liver disease encompasses a large number of hepatic disorders. One of the most important etiologies of liver disease is drug-induced liver disease, which is the leading cause of liver failure in patients referred for liver transplantation in the United States. Drug-induced liver disease can present in all forms of acute and chronic liver disease with highly variable clinical presentations. There is no effective treatment for most drug-induced liver disease and the recognition and prevention of drug-induced liver disease remain the most important management strategy. Drug dosing in patients with liver disease represents an even more challenging task to clinicians, as there is only scant information on biomarkers that can be used to predict the pharmacokinetic changes of drugs in patients with underlying liver disease. Several factors contribute to alterations in drugs metabolism and clearance in cirrhotic patients, including the severity of the liver disease and the metabolic pathways of each individual drug. Only general guidelines on dosage adjustment in patients with hepatic impairment are available. When drugs with extensive hepatic metabolism are required in patients with preexisting liver disease, benefit of therapeutic effect must be evaluated against the risk of toxicity, and the drugs must be initiated with extreme caution with appropriate dosage reduction.

Comparison of four models for end-stage liver disease in evaluating the prognosis of cirrhosis

AIM: To investigate the prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and three new MELD-based models combination with serum sodium in decompensated cirrhosis patients-the MELD with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na), the integrated MELD (iMELD), and the MELD to sodium (MESO) index.

METHODS: A total of 166 patients with decompensated cirrhosis were enrolled into the study. MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD and MESO scores were calculated for each patient following the original formula on the first day of admission. All patients were followed up at least 1 year. The predictive prognosis related with the four models was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the four parameters. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were made using the cut-offs identified by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

RESULTS: Out of 166 patients, 38 patients with significantly higher MELD-Na (28.84 ± 2.43 vs 14.72 ± 0.60), iMELD (49.04 ± 1.72 vs 35.52 ± 0.67), MESO scores (1.59 ± 0.82 vs 0.99 ± 0.42) compared to the survivors died within 3 mo (P < 0.001). Of 166 patients, 75 with markedly higher MELD-Na (23.01 ± 1.51 vs 13.78 ± 0.69), iMELD (44.06 ± 1.19 vs 34.12 ± 0.69), MESO scores (1.37 ± 0.70 vs 0.93 ± 0.40) than the survivors died within 1 year (P < 0.001). At 3 mo of enrollment, the iMELD had the highest AUC (0.841), and was followed by the MELD-Na (0.766), MESO (0.723), all larger than MELD (0.773); At 1 year, the iMELD still had the highest AUC (0.783), the difference between the iMELD and MELD was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Survival curves showed that the three new models were all clearly discriminated the patients who survived or died in short-term as well as intermediate-term (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: Three new models, changed with serum sodium (MELD-Na, iMELD, MESO) can exactly predict the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis for short and intermediate period, and may enhance the prognostic accuracy of MELD. The iMELD is better prognostic model for outcome prediction in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

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Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score system to evaluate patients with viral hepatitis on the waiting list: better than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) system?

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), based on creatinine, bilirubin, and International normalized ratio (INR), has been shown to be superior to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score in predicting 3-month mortality among patients on the transplant waiting list due to end-stage liver disease (ESLD). An additional advantage of MELD is the possibility to add "adjustment points" for exceptional patients at risk for death because of liver disease not identified by changes in the used parameters, as occurs in the case of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although it is useful, MELD has some important limitations: There are no differences for patients with or without ascites, and for the absence of other laboratory parameters involved in the etiology of disease. In this study, we evaluated dropouts of patients on the waiting list for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) based upon the characteristics of these subjects before and after introduction of the MELD score.

METHODS

All patients on the OLT waiting list from June 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007 were enrolled in the MELD group (A) and evaluated with CHILD and MELD score, while those listed from January 1, 2004 to May 31, 2005 were enrolled in pre-MELD group (B) to be evaluated with CHILD. In these subjects we assessed the drop out frequency and waiting time and we compared the results to assess possible differences (U Mann-Whitney Test; P<.05).

RESULTS

The total number of patients included in this study was 176: 116 patients in Group A and 60 in Group B. We had a drop-out frequency of 21% with a median of 9+/-6 S.E. months in Group A, while 9% with a median of 15+/-8 months S.E. in Group B. The dropout frequencies were as follows: Group A--16 deaths (1 HCC--15 disease complications) while in Group B we had 13 drop outs, 10 exitus (4 HCC and 6 disease complications) and three exclusions for nonmedical reasons. In Group A we had a higher number of deaths due to disease complications than in group B (P<.05). Further, we had 32 OLTx in Group A and 45 in Group B. Survival rate did not show any differences between the two groups while number needed to harm was 11.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of MELD score in this group of patients produced an advantage for HCC, but seemed to cutoff patients with viral hepatitis complications during the waiting time. Particularly, about one in every 11 patients may receive an harm using this score system. Other parameters should be introduced as adjustment points to make the MELD score suitable also for patients with infectious liver diseases.

Hot topics in liver transplantation: organ allocation--extended criteria donor--living donor liver transplantation

Liver transplantation has become the mainstay for the treatment of end-stage liver disease, hepatocellular cancer and some metabolic disorders. Its main drawback, though, is the disparity between the number of donors and the patients needing a liver graft. In this review we will discuss the recent changes regarding organ allocation, extended donor criteria, living donor liver transplantation and potential room for improvement. The gap between the number of donors and patients needing a liver graft forced the transplant community to introduce an objective model such as the modified model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in order to obtain a transparent and fair organ allocation system. The use of extended criteria donor livers such as organs from older donors or steatotic grafts is one possibility to reduce the gap between patients on the waiting list and available donors. Finally, living donor liver transplantation has become a standard procedure in specialized centers as another possibility to reduce the donor shortage. Recent data clearly indicate that center experience is of major importance in achieving good results. Great progress has been made in recent years. However, further research is needed to improve results in the future.

Review article: renal function assessment in cirrhosis - difficulties and alternative measurements

BACKGROUND

Renal function in patients with cirrhosis is important prognostically, both before and following liver transplantation. Its prognostic impact is reflected by the inclusion of serum creatinine in the model for end-stage liver disease score, which is now used for recipient prioritization on liver transplantation waiting lists in the USA.

AIM

To review the accuracy of the surrogate markers for the assessment of renal function, i.e. glomerular filtration rate, particularly in patients with cirrhosis.

METHOD

We reviewed the available literature in PubMed regarding the markers for GFR evaluation and the factors which affect their accuracy in cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Although creatinine is widely available, it is an unreliable marker of glomerular filtration rate, particularly in patients with cirrhosis. Clearance of exogenous markers is considered the 'gold standard', but this methodology has many drawbacks, particularly poor applicability. Several mathematical formulae for estimated glomerular filtration rate are used to overcome some of these limitations: Cockcroft-Gault and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formulae are the most frequently applied, but they are based on serum creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the inaccuracy of serum creatinine and its derived formulae in estimating glomerular filtration rate, alternative serum markers, such as cystatin C, and new formulae are desirable. These need formal evaluation in patients with cirrhosis so as to have a reliable surrogate of glomerular filtration rate, and to obviate many problems that are associated with using creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

An integrated MELD model including serum sodium and age improves the prediction of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is widely used to predict the short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but potential limitations of this score have been reported. The aim of this study was to improve the score's prognostic accuracy by assessing new objective variables. Data of 310 consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement between July 1995 and March 2005 were analyzed retrospectively. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed by proportional hazard Cox regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and the likelihood ratio test were used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality. Findings were validated in a cohort of 451 consecutive patients with cirrhosis on waiting list for liver transplantation. Bivariate analyses showed that the following variables correlated with time to death: age, serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, serum albumin, serum sodium, and MELD. Multivariate analysis revealed that MELD, serum sodium, and age were independently associated with the risk of death. The integrated MELD model (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) was better than original MELD in predicting 12-month mortality: auROC increased by 13.4% and the likelihood ratio statistic from 23.5 to 48.2. The improved accuracy of iMELD was confirmed in the validation sample of 451 patients with cirrhosis on the waiting list for liver transplantation by increasing auROC (+8%) and likelihood ratio statistic (from 41.4 to 82.0). This study shows that in patients with cirrhosis, serum sodium and age are predictors of mortality independent of the MELD score. The incorporation of these variables into the original MELD formula improves the predictive accuracy of time to death.

Different methods of creatinine measurement significantly affect MELD scores

Bilirubin (Bil) interferes with creatinine (Cr) measurement. Different laboratory methods are used to overcome this problem. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring incorporates Cr and is used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. Thus, MELD scores may vary with different Cr measurements influencing patients' priority. Our aim was to evaluate 4 different Cr assays (O'Leary modified Jaffe [mJCr], compensated [rate blanked] kinetic Jaffe [cJCr], enzymatic [ECr], and standard kinetic Jaffe [JCr]) in patients with abnormal liver function tests and assess changes in MELD score. A total of 403 consecutive samples from 158 patients' Cr assays were evaluated.. Bland-Altman plots and MELD scores were also evaluated for each assay. Agreement was found to be poor among all Cr assays. Increased variability in Cr occurred with increasing Bil concentrations: Bil <100 micromol/L <or=3-point MELD variation - 3-point difference in 2%; Bil >or=400micromol/L <or=7-point MELD variation - >or=3-point difference in 78%. When MELD was >or=25 (mJCr as reference; mean, 30.5 points), MELD variation was greatest: mean, 28 (MELD cJCr), 27.5 (MELD ECr), and 28.4 (MELD JCr) (P < 0.001). In conclusion, there is poor agreement among different assays for Cr. As Bil concentration rises, there is greater variability in each creatinine measurements and thus greater variability in MELD scores that, this affect prioritization for liver transplantation.

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was initially created to predict survival in patients with complications of portal hypertension undergoing elective placement of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. The MELD which uses only objective variables was validated subsequently as an accurate predictor of survival among different populations of patients with advanced liver disease. The major use of the MELD score has been in allocation of organs for liver transplantation. However, the MELD score has also been shown to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis who have infections, variceal bleeding, as well as in patients with fulminant hepatic failure and alcoholic hepatitis. MELD may be used in selection of patients for surgery other than liver transplantation and in determining optimal treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are not candidates for liver transplantation. Despite the many advantages of the MELD score, there are approximately 15%-20% of patients whose survival cannot be accurately predicted by the MELD score. It is possible that the addition of variables that are better determinants of liver and renal function may improve the predictive accuracy of the model. Efforts at further refinement and validation of the MELD score will continue.

Female liver transplant recipients with the same GFR as male recipients have lower MELD scores--a systematic bias

Women have lower glomerular filtration (GFR) than men for the same serum creatinine (Cr) value, not accounted for in model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). We compare male/female Cr, GFR (using MDRD formula) and respective MELD scores in 403 Cr measurements using standard (sCr), O'Leary modified (mCr) and Compensated (cCr) Jaffe and Enzymatic (eCr) in 158 liver disease patients, mCr in 208 liver transplantation (LT) candidates, and EDTA-Cr(51)-GFR in 38 other candidates for LT; considering each female as male, a 'corrected' Cr was derived. MELD scores were calculated for measured and "corrected" Cr in females. Median Cr and GFR in females were lower than males (p < 0.05). Both MDRD and EDTA-Cr(51) GFR were lower in females than males, despite lower Cr values. In females, each MELD score was lower than the corresponding MELD-corrected Cr (p < 0.001) with > or =three-point difference in liver disease patients: 25%[sCr]; 23%[mCr]; 11%[eCr]; and 14%[cCr]. In 65% of female LT candidates, two- or three-point difference was found. Females with liver disease have lower GFR than males for the same Cr value; correcting Cr increases MELD score by two or three points in 65% of female LT candidates. MELD score adjustment in females would ensure equal LT priority by gender.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score-Based Allocation of Donors for Liver Transplantation: A Spanish Multicenter Experience

BACKGROUND

Prioritizing the liver transplant waiting list (WL) is subject to great variability. We present the experience of four transplant centers in Andalusia (Southern Spain) with a new consensus model of WL management based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

METHODS

The initial criteria for local prioritizing were: a) cirrhosis with MELD score > or =24, and b) all hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admitted to the WL. Fourteen months later new criteria were established: a) cirrhosis with MELD score > or =18, and b) uninodular HCC between 3-5 cm or multinodular HCC (2-3 nodules <3 cm). Access to regional priority was scheduled after three months for patients with cirrhosis or six months for patients with HCC. We analyzed the WL mortality rate, posttransplant survival rate, and overall survival rate over three 14-month periods: A (before implementation of priority criteria), B (initial criteria), and C (current criteria).

RESULTS

Priority was given to 36% of recipients in period B and 47% in period C. The WL mortality rate (including removals from WL) was 12.9%, 12.9%, and 10.7% in periods A, B, and C, respectively. One-year graft survival was 79.7%, 72.6%, and 81.2% in the same periods. The overall one-year survival rate for new cases on the WL was 74.9% in period A, 68.6% in period B, and 82.2% in period C.

CONCLUSIONS

The allocation system and WL management with the current criteria resulted in lower waiting list mortality without reducing posttransplant survival, leading to better survival for all patients listed.

Limitation of the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis-related complications

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy are major complications of cirrhosis and traditional indications for liver transplantation evaluation. However, these complications are not included in the MELD and it is not clear if these complications correlate with MELD score in terms of outcome prediction. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of cirrhosis-related complication as a prognostic predictor in 290 cirrhotic patients. The MELD score and outcome were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis-related complications. There was no significant difference of the MELD score between patients with (n = 67) and without (n = 223) complications (11.6 +/- 2.9 vs. 12.2 +/- 3.2, p = 0.184). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 for MELD vs. 0.604 for complications (p = 0.174) at six months, and the area was 0.641 for MELD vs. 0.611 for complications (p = 0.522) at 12 months. A high MELD score and presence of complications had a similar profile of predictive accuracy and both were significant predictors of mortality at six and 12 months in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients with cirrhosis-related complications at presentation had a decreased survival compared with those without complications (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a predictor of poor prognosis. While early transplantation referral is recommended, these patients do not necessarily have a higher MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.

[Prognostic significance of the hepatopulmonary syndrome in liver cirrhosis]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The prognosis of hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) has been only rarely investigated.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

We investigated the survival of 32 cirrhotic patients, 14 (44%) with HPS and 18 with a normal gaseous exchange (NGE), and the associated factors.

RESULTS

During a mean (standard deviation) of 56 (27) months, 9 patients in the HPS group (relative risk: 0.64) and 4 patients in the NGE group (relative risk: 0.22) died. The odds ratio was 6.42 (p < 0.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.80). Patients in the HPS group died after 44 (31) months, while patients in the NGE group died 65 (21) months after inclusion (p < 0.05). Overall, 46% of deaths were liver related. Factors associated with death were the right to left shunting and the increased plasmatic renin levels. Of note, the plasmatic volume and diffusing capacity were protective.

CONCLUSIONS

The coexistence of HPS worsens the prognosis in liver cirrhosis.

Prognostic value of MELD score and donor quality in liver transplantation: implications for the donor recipient match

The model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been adopted by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) in 2002 as the standard priority rule for the liver transplantation waiting list. We retrospectively calculated the pretransplant MELD scores of 226 consecutive adult grafts. We did not correct for hepatocellular carcinoma comorbidity or for the etiology of liver disease. Cases were categorized according to the MELD score: class I, MELD scores between 6 and 14 (low MELD, n = 116); class II, MELD score between 15 and 24 (intermediate MELD, n = 78); class III, MELD score between 25 and 42 (high MELD, n = 32). All patients were transplanted using deceased donors. Grafts were categorized also according to donor quality (standard donor vs nonstandard donor). Sorting into categories was performed before transplant by officers of the Central-South Italian Transplant Organization overregional organ procurement agencies, namely OCST. Differences in Kaplan-Meier graft survivals (GS) between low MELD class and high MELD class were statistically significant (P < .01). Among standard donors, the 6-month GS were 83%, 94%, and 63% for the low, intermediate, and high MELD subset, respectively, differences that did not reach statistical significance. Among nonstandard donors, the 6-month GS were 77%, 71%, and 38% for the low, intermediate, and high MELD classes, respectively. Differences between low MELD class and intermediate MELD class and between low MELD class and high MELD class were statistically significant (P < .01). We strongly suggest that the utilization of nonstandard organs should be avoided for patients with high MELD scores.

Liver transplantation organ allocation between Child and MELD

Liver transplantation (LT) has been established as the most effective therapy for acute and chronic liver diseases over the last few decades due to its excellent long-term results. At the beginning of the LT era, donor organs were allocated based on waiting time. However, as the number of LT candidates consistently increased, a specific allocation system became necessary to prioritize the large number of patients waiting for a limited pool of organs. The LT candidates were categorized into different urgency levels based on their hospital status, degree of liver disease as measured by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, and accompanying complications of liver disease, such as ascites, variceal bleeding or hepatocellular carcinoma. The majority of European countries, including Austria, still rely on this organ allocation system. In the United States, however, a new allocation system based on the risk of death without transplantation, assessed by the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), was initiated in February 2002. Recent reports have shown that the introduction of the MELD system led to a reduction in waiting list mortality, but also that the MELD score has several limitations that call for further refinements. In the transplant community there are reasonable doubts that MELD is actually superior to the Child-Turcotte Pugh score. Therefore, the optimal liver organ allocation system is yet to be defined.

Different model for end-stage liver disease score block distributions may have a variable ability for outcome prediction

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system has become the prevailing criteria for organ allocation in liver transplantation. However, it is not clear if the predictive accuracy of MELD is equally homogeneous in different distribution of MELD score blocks.

METHODS

We investigated 472 cirrhotic patients (mean MELD, 14.3+/-5.5), and compared the predictive accuracy of MELD and the corresponding Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores in patients with low (<16), intermediate (10-20) and high (>14) MELD score range by using c-statistic for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at different time frames.

RESULTS

The MELD scores well correlated with CTP scores at baseline (rho=0.492, P<0.001). Overall, MELD was significantly better than the CTP system to predict the risk of mortality. However, in stratified analysis there were no significant differences between MELD and CTP for the c-statistic in patients with low and intermediate range MELD scores at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month (p values all > 0 1). Among patients with high MELD scores, MELD was consistently more accurate than the CTP system in predicting the mortality at 3- (AUC, 0.715 vs. 0.543, P=0.020), 6- (0.705 vs. 0.536, P=0.003), 9- (0.737 vs. 0.507, P<0.001) and 12-month (0.716 vs. 0.526, P<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD has a better performance only in a subset of patients with higher MELD scores. The outcome in patients with lower range MELD scores cannot be reliably predicted solely with their MELD scores, and alternative prognostic markers should be used in conjunction to enhance the predictive accuracy.