Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

Systemic Inflammation-Based Staging System for Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Drug-Eluting Beads Transarterial Chemoembolization: A Multicenter Study

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The optimal prognostic assessment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) remains unclear. This study aimed to propose a novel staging system in comparison with the current staging systems for HCC following DEB-TACE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From four centers, patients with HCC undergoing DEB-TACE as the initial therapy were retrospectively included and classified into training and validation sets. Multivariable regression was used to determine the independent prognostic factors in the training set. A novel staging system incorporating the independent factors was proposed and externally validated in terms of discrimination and calibration compared to other staging systems in both sets.

RESULTS

The training and validation sets included 335 and 99 patients, respectively. Multivariable regression revealed independent factors including alpha-fetoprotein level, aspartate aminotransferase to lymphocyte count ratio index, maximum tumor diameter, Child-Pugh class, and portal vein invasion. The novel prognostic staging system, named PADCA, was proposed and outperformed other staging systems with the highest C-index, area under the curve, Wald test value, clinical benefit, and the lowest Akaike information criterion in the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

The PADCA staging system has a superior prognostic predictive ability compared to the current staging systems. PADCA can assist clinicians in screening out the patients most likely to derive benefit from DEB-TACE and guiding the formulation of therapy and follow-up strategy.

Efficacy and safety of TACE combined with tyrosine kinase inhibitors and camrelizumab for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and camrelizumab (collectively: T-T-C) is a novel treatment strategy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of T-T-C compared with TACE combined with TKIs only (T-T) in the treatment of patients with unresectable HCC. A systematic literature search was conducted on T-T and T-T-C using PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Data regarding the clinical outcome, including overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), tumor response and adverse events (AEs), were independently extracted and analyzed by two researchers using standardized protocols. In total, 7 cohort studies, including 1,798 patients (T-T-C, 838; T-T, 960), were included in the meta-analysis. The results of the present study demonstrated that the T-T-C group had significantly prolonged OS [hazard ratio (HR), 0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.29-0.50; I2=61.5%; P=0.016)] and PFS (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.30-0.46; I2=44.5%; P=0.109), and showed significantly higher objective response rates [risk ratio (RR), 0.82; 95% CI, 0.69-0.96; I2=25.1%; P=0.237)] and slightly higher disease control rates without a significant difference (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.89-1.03; I2=0.0%; P=0.969). In addition, grade 3/4 AEs were more common in the T-T group, including hypertension (RR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.85-1.56), vomiting or nausea (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.44-1.76) and pain (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.45-1.21); however, these results were not statistically significant. In conclusion, compared with T-T combination therapy, T-T-C demonstrated a notable advantage in terms of OS, PFS, ORR and DCR in patients with unresectable HCC. For manageable AEs, although the results were not statistically significant, the incidence of AEs in the T-T group was higher than that in the T-T-C group in terms of event probability.

The prognostic role of an optimal machine learning model based on clinical available indicators in HCC patients

Although methods in diagnosis and therapy of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have made significant progress in the past decades, the overall survival (OS) of liver cancer is still disappointing. Machine learning models have several advantages over traditional cox models in prognostic prediction. This study aimed at designing an optimal panel and constructing an optimal machine learning model in predicting prognosis for HCC. A total of 941 HCC patients with completed survival data and preoperative clinical chemistry and immunology indicators from two medical centers were included. The OCC panel was designed by univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis. Subsequently, cox model and machine-learning models were established and assessed for predicting OS and PFS in discovery cohort and internal validation cohort. The best OCC model was validated in the external validation cohort and analyzed in different subgroups. In discovery, internal and external validation cohort, C-indexes of our optimal OCC model were 0.871 (95% CI, 0.863-0.878), 0.692 (95% CI, 0.667-0.717) and 0.648 (95% CI, 0.630-0.667), respectively; the 2-year AUCs of OCC model were 0.939 (95% CI, 0.920-0.959), 0.738 (95% CI, 0.667-0.809) and 0.725 (95% CI, 0.643-0.808), respectively. For subgroup analysis of HCC patients with HBV, aged less than 65, cirrhosis or resection as first therapy, C-indexes of our optimal OCC model were 0.772 (95% CI, 0.752-0.792), 0.769 (95% CI, 0.750-0.789), 0.855 (95% CI, 0.846-0.864) and 0.760 (95% CI, 0.741-0.778), respectively. In general, the optimal OCC model based on RSF algorithm shows prognostic guidance value in HCC patients undergoing individualized treatment.

Predicting Survival Using Whole-Liver MRI Radiomics in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After TACE Refractoriness

PURPOSE

To develop a model based on whole-liver radiomics features of pre-treatment enhanced MRI for predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing continued transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) after TACE-resistance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 111 TACE-resistant HCC patients between January 2014 and March 2018 were retrospectively collected. At a ratio of 7:3, patients were randomly assigned to developing and validation cohorts. The whole-liver were manually segmented, and the radiomics signature was extracted. The tumor and liver radiomics score (TLrad-score) was calculated. Models were trained by machine learning algorithms and their predictive efficacies were compared.

RESULTS

Tumor stage, tumor burden, body mass index, alpha-fetoprotein, and vascular invasion were revealed as independent risk factors for survival. The model trained by Random Forest algorithms based on tumor burden, whole-liver radiomics signature, and clinical features had the highest predictive efficacy, with c-index values of 0.85 and 0.80 and areas under the ROC curve of 0.96 and 0.83 in the developing cohort and validation cohort, respectively. In the high-rad-score group (TLrad-score > - 0.34), the median overall survival (mOS) was significantly shorter than in the low-rad-score group (17 m vs. 37 m, p < 0.001). A shorter mOS was observed in patients with high tumor burden compared to those with low tumor burden (14 m vs. 29 m, p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The combined radiomics model from whole-liver signatures may effectively predict survival for HCC patients continuing TACE after TACE refractoriness. The TLrad-score and tumor burden are potential prognostic markers for TACE therapy following TACE-resistance.

A novel radiomics approach for predicting TACE outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients using deep learning for multi-organ segmentation

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) represent the standard of therapy for non-operative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), while prediction of long term treatment outcomes is a complex and multifactorial task. In this study, we present a novel machine learning approach utilizing radiomics features from multiple organ volumes of interest (VOIs) to predict TACE outcomes for 252 HCC patients. Unlike conventional radiomics models requiring laborious manual segmentation limited to tumoral regions, our approach captures information comprehensively across various VOIs using a fully automated, pretrained deep learning model applied to pre-TACE CT images. Evaluation of radiomics random survival forest models against clinical ones using Cox proportional hazard demonstrated comparable performance in predicting overall survival. However, radiomics outperformed clinical models in predicting progression-free survival. Explainable analysis highlighted the significance of non-tumoral VOI features, with their cumulative importance superior to features from the largest liver tumor. The proposed approach overcomes the limitations of manual VOI segmentation, requires no radiologist input and highlight the clinical relevance of features beyond tumor regions. Our findings suggest the potential of this radiomics models in predicting TACE outcomes, with possible implications for other clinical scenarios.

Incorporating Inflammatory Markers and Clinical Indicators into a Predictive Model of Single Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Primary Locoregional Treatments

Purpose

We explored the role of tumor size and number in the prognosis of HCC patients who underwent ablation and created a nomogram based on machine learning to predict the recurrence.

Patients and Methods

A total of 990 HCC patients who underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were prospectively enrolled, including 478 patients with single small HCC (S-S), 209 patients with single large (≥30mm) HCC (S-L), 182 patients with multiple small HCC (M-S), and 121 patients with multiple large HCC (M-L). S-S patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=334) and the validation cohort (N=144). Lasso-Cox regression analysis was carried out to identify independent risk factors, which were used to construct a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Patients in the training and validation cohorts were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups based on the risk scores of the nomogram.

Results

The median recurrence-free survival (mRFS) in S-S patients was significantly longer than the S-L, M-S, and S-L patients (P<0.0001). The content of the nomogram includes age, monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR), gamma-glutamyl transferase-to-lymphocyte (GLR), International normalized ratio (INR), and Erythrocyte (RBC). The C-index (0.704 and 0.71) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.726, 0.800, 0.780, and 0.752, 0.761, 0.760) of the training and validation cohorts proved the excellent predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves the DCA curves showed that the nomogram had good consistency and clinical utility. There were apparent variances in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

S-S patients who underwent ablation had the best prognosis. The nomogram developed and validated in the study had good predictive ability for S-S patients.

CRAFITY score benefits hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization and lenvatinib

BACKGROUND

The CRAFITY score serves as a simple and effective predictive model for individuals diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and subjected to treatment with atezolizumab and bevacizumab (Atez/Bev). However, no large sample size studies have reported the application of the CRAFITY score among HCC patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in conjunction with lenvatinib. This research aims to assess the prognostic role of the CRAFITY score in the context of individuals with HCC receiving TACE in combination with lenvatinib.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis encompassed 314 individuals diagnosed with HCC who underwent the combination of TACE and lenvatinib at two medical facilities in China from August 2019 to August 2022 (comprising a training cohort of n = 172 and a validation cohort of n = 142). We investigated the prognostic values of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), disease control rate, and objective response rate in the training cohort based on the CRAFITY scores. Furthermore, the predictive capacity of the model was corroborated through validation using an external cohort.

RESULTS

We included 174 and 142 patients treated with TACE plus lenvatinib in the training and validation cohorts, correspondingly. PFS and OS differed across all three groups in all training and validation cohorts, based on the CRAFITY score (p < 0.001). In both cohorts, the CRAFITY score effectively predicted tumor response (p < 0.001). Moreover, among the 121 patients who received TACE, lenvatinib, and immunotherapy, the CRAFITY score showed promising predictive efficacy in PFS and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRAFITY score, utilizing C-reactive protein and alpha-fetoprotein values, emerges as a dependable and pragmatic instrument for forecasting the effectiveness of TACE plus lenvatinib in individuals with unresectable HCC. This scoring system holds the potential to assist oncologists in making informed clinical decisions.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined with Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors Plus Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Versus Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors Plus Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma with First- or Lower-Order Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis

PURPOSE

To compare the efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) plus immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) (TACE-TKI-ICI) versus TKIs plus ICIs (TKI-ICI) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with first- or lower-order portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was performed in HCC patients with first- or lower-order PVTT receiving TKIs (Lenvatinib or sorafenib) plus ICIs (camrelizumab, sintilimab, or atezolizumab) with or without TACE from four institutions between January 2019 and January 2022. Propensity score-based method was performed to minimize bias by confounding factors. Tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs) were evaluated and compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

After inverse probability of treatment weighting, two balanced pseudopopulations were created: 106 patients in the TACE-TKI-ICI group and 109 patients in the TKI-ICI group. The objective response rate was higher in the TACE-TKI-ICI group (50.9% vs. 28.4%, P < 0.001). The median PFS and OS were significantly longer in the TACE-TKI-ICI group than in the TKI-ICI group (PFS: 9.1 vs. 5.0 months, P = 0.005; OS: 19.1 vs. 12.7 months, P = 0.002). In Cox regression, TACE-TKI-ICI treatment was an independent predictor of favorable OS. Treatment-related grade 3/4 AEs were comparable between the two groups (22.6% vs. 17.9%, P = 0.437).

CONCLUSION

TACE-TKI-ICI therapy contributed to better tumor control, PFS and OS than TKI-ICI therapy in unresectable HCC patients with first- or lower-order PVTT.

Evaluation of models to predict prognosis in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE combined with apatinib

BACKGROUND

The HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores have been substantiated as reliable prognostic markers in patients presenting with intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment. Given this premise, our research aims to assess the predictive efficacy of these models in patients with intermediate and advanced HCC receiving a combination of TACE and Apatinib. Additionally, we have conducted a meticulous comparative analysis of these four scoring systems to discern their respective predictive capacities and efficacies in combined therapy.

METHODS

Performing a retrospective analysis on the clinical data from 200 patients with intermediate and advanced HCC, we studied those who received TACE combined with Apatinib at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China between June 2018 and December 2022. To identify the factors affecting survival, the study performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, with calculations of four different scores: HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI. Lastly, Harrell's C-index was employed to compare the prognostic abilities of these scores.

RESULTS

Cox proportional hazards model results revealed that the ALBI score, presence of portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT, )and tumor size are independent determinants of prognostic survival. The Kaplan-Meier analyses showed significant differences in survival rates among patients classified by the HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scoring methods. Of the evaluated systems, the HAP scoring demonstrated greater prognostic precision, with a Harrell's C-index of 0.742, surpassing the alternative models (P < 0.05). In addition, an analysis of the area under the AU-ROC curve confirms the remarkable superiority of the HAP score in predicting short-term survival outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms the predictive value of HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores in intermediate to advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving combined Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) and Apatinib therapy. Notably, the HAP model excels in predicting outcomes for this specific HCC subgroup.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Patients Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Purpose

This study aims to establish a prognostic nomogram for patients who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Patients who underwent TACE for recurrent early- and middle-stage HCC after hepatectomy between 2009.01 and 2015.12 were included. Enrolled patients were randomly divided into training (n=345) and validation (n=173) cohorts according to a computer-generated randomized number. Independent factors for overall survival (OS) were determined and included in the nomogram based on the univariate and multivariate analyses of the training group. The nomogram was validated and compared to other prognostic models. Discriminative ability and predictive accuracy were determined using the Harrell C index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and calibration curve.

Results

The final nomogram was established based on four parameters including resection-to-TACE time interval, recurrent tumor diameter, recurrent tumor number, and AFP level. The C-indexes of the nomogram for predicting OS were 0.67 (95% CI 0.63-0.70) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) in the training and validation cohort respectively. The AUROCs for predicting the 1-year, 2-year and 3-year OS based on the nomogram were also superior to those of the other models. The calibration curve for 3-year survival showed a high congruence between the predicted and actual survival probabilities. According to the scores calculated by the nomogram, patients were stratified into three subgroups: high-risk (scoring ≥53 points), middle-risk (scoring ≥26 and <53 points), and low-risk (scoring <26 points) subgroups with a median OS of 10.1 (95% CI 0.63-0.70), 20.3 (95% CI 17.5-22.5) and 47.0 (95% CI 34.2-59.8) months, respectively.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram served as a new tool to predict individual survival in patients who underwent TACE for recurrent HCC after hepatectomy, with favorable performance and discrimination. For high-risk patients, treatment should be optimized beyond TACE alone based on the nomogram.

A refined prediction model for survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization

Background/Aims

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is widely performed as a major treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, and there is a need to stratify patients for whom the most benefit from the treatment. This study aimed to develop a refined prediction model for overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing TACE as a first-line treatment in a large cohort and validate its performance.

Methods

A total of 2,632 patients with HCC of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A or B who underwent TACE between 2008 and 2017 were enrolled. The patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 1,304) or a validation cohort (n = 1,328). Independent predictors of OS were used to develop a prediction model.

Results

The median age of patients in the entire cohort was 63 years, with the majority having hepatitis B virus (56.6%) and being classified as Child-Pugh class A (82.4%). We developed a new prognostic model, called the TACE-prognostic (TP) score, based on tumor burden (sum of the largest tumor diameter and tumor number), alpha-fetoprotein, and Albumin-Bilirubin grade. Patients were classified into five risk groups according to TP scores, with median survival significantly differentiated in both training and validation cohorts (P < 0.001). The new model consistently outperformed other currently available models in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusion

This newly developed TP scoring system has the potential to be a useful tool in identifying ideal candidates of TACE and predicting OS with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further external validation is needed to confirm its effectiveness.

Prognostic Evaluation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombus Patients Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization Plus Molecular Targeted Therapies-Development and Validation of the ABPS Score

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus molecular targeted therapies has emerged as the main approach for treating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT). A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE plus molecular targeted therapies candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 384 patients with HCC and PVTT who underwent TACE plus molecular targeted therapies at 16 different institutions. We developed and validated a new prognostic score which called ABPS score. Additionally, an external validation was performed on data from 200 patients enrolled in a prospective cohort study.

RESULTS

The ABPS score (ranging from 0 to 3 scores), which involves only Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI, grade 1: 0 score; grade 2: 1 score), PVTT(I-II type: 0 score; III-IV type: 1 score), and systemic-immune inflammation index (SII,<550 × 1012: 0 score; ≥550 × 1012: 1 score). Patients were categorized into three risk groups based on their ABPS score: ABPS-A, B, and C (scored 0, 1-2, and 3, respectively). The concordance index (C-index) of the ABPS scoring system was calculated to be 0.802, significantly outperforming the HAP score (0.758), 6-12 (0.712), Up to 7 (0.683), and ALBI (0.595) scoring systems (all P < 0.05). These research findings were further validated in the external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The ABPS score demonstrated a strong association with survival outcomes and radiological response in patients undergoing TACE plus molecular targeted therapy for HCC with PVTT. The ABPS scoring system could serve as a valuable tool to guide treatment selection for these patients.

Construction of a prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization treatment based on the Tumor Burden Score

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may have varied outcomes based on their liver function and tumor burden diversity. This study aims to assess the prognostic significance of the tumor burden score (TBS) in these patients and develop a prognostic model for their overall survival.

METHODS

The study involved a retrospective analysis of 644 newly diagnosed HCC patients undergoing TACE treatment. The individuals were assigned randomly to a training cohort (n = 452) and a validation cohort (n = 192). We utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk model to identify independent preoperative predictive factors. We then evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (c-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) methods.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis revealed four prognostic factors associated with overall survival: Tumor Burden Score, Tumor Extent, Types of portal vein invasion (PVI), and Child-Pugh score. The total score was calculated based on these factors. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability with high AUC values and c-index, providing high net clinical benefits for patients. Based on the model's scoring results, patients were categorized into high, medium, and low-risk groups. These results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The tumor burden score shows promise as a viable alternative prognostic indicator for assessing tumor burden in cases of HCC. The new prognostic model can place patients in one of three groups, which will estimate their individual outcomes. For high-risk patients, it is suggested to consider alternative treatment options or provide the best supportive care, as they may not benefit significantly from TACE treatment.

Impact of body composition on the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives

To summarize current evidence about the influence of body composition on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment.

Methods

Public databases were systematically searched to identify relevant studies published from the inception of the database up to May 2023. Studies that evaluated the association between body composition and clinical outcomes in HCC patients who underwent TACE were included. A pre-designed table was applied to summarize relevant information. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the association of body composition with overall survival.

Results

Fourteen studies were included in this review, including 3631 patients (sample size range: 56-908, median 186). All body composition measurements (including skeletal muscle area, visceral and subcutaneous adipose area, and bone mineral density) were based on computer tomography. The commonly used parameter was skeletal muscle index at 3rd lumbar vertebra level (8/14). Three studies evaluated the correlations of body composition changes with the prognosis after TACE. Most studies (12/14) identified body composition parameters as an independent indicator for overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response rate. The hazard ratio of different body composition parameters ranged from 1.01 to 2.88, and hazard ratio of body composition changes ranged from 1.88 to 5.93. The pooled hazard ratio of sarcopenia for overall survival was 1.38 (95 %CI: 1.20-1.58).

Conclusions

Body composition seems to be an important prognostic factor for a poorer clinical outcome after TACE treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Future prospective studies with a larger sample size are required to confirm these findings.

Registration study

This study has been prospectively registered at the PROSPERO platform (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/) with the registration No. CRD42022345602.

Identification of patients with favorable prognosis after resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUNDS

It is unclear which patients benefit from resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The authors aimed to identify high-risk patients for early recurrence among patients with resectable intermediate-stage HCC.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent resection or trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage HCC (2008-2019). Multivariable Cox proportional analysis was performed to identify high-risk patients when treated with resection. A prediction score for 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was developed using the training cohort and validated. The 2-year RFS in each risk group was compared with that in TACE group, after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

A total of 1686 patients were included (480 and 1206 patients in the resection and TACE groups). During a median follow-up of 31.4 months, the 2-year RFS was significantly higher in the resection (47.7%) than in the TACE group (19.8%) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.471, 95% CI: 1.199-1.803, P <0.001). On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR=0.202), ALBI grade ≥2 (aHR=0.709), tumor number ≥3 (aHR=0.404), and maximal tumor size ≥5 cm (aHR=0.323) were significantly associated with the lower risk of 2-year RFS in the resection group. The newly developed Surgery Risk score in BCLC-B (SR-B score) with four significant risk factors showed an area under the curve of 0.801 for the 2-year RFS and was validated. Based on the SR-B score, low-risk patients had a significantly higher 2-year RFS (training: aHR=5.834; validation: aHR=5.675) than high-risk patients (all P <0.001) did. In a PSM cohort, a low-risk resection group had a significantly higher (aHR=3.891); a high-risk resection group had a comparable 2-year RFS to those treated with TACE (aHR=0.816).

CONCLUSIONS

Resection may be beneficial for resectable intermediate-stage HCC based on the SR-B score.

Prognostic model for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with dual PD-1 and angiogenesis blockade therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Dual programmed death 1 (PD-1) and angiogenesis blockade therapy is a frontline treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). An accepted model for survival prediction and risk stratification in individual patients receiving this treatment is lacking. Aimed to develop a simple prognostic model specific to these patients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with unresectable HCC undergoing dual PD-1 and angiogenesis blockade therapy were included in training cohort (n=168) and validation cohort (n=72). We investigated the prognostic value of clinical variables on overall survival using a Cox model in the training set. A prognostic score model was then developed and validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were also evaluated. Largest tumor size and Alpha-fetoprotein concentration at baseline and Neutrophil count and Spleen volume change after 6 weeks of treatment were identified as independent predictors of overall survival in multivariable analysis and used to develop LANS score. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis, calibration curves, and C-index showed LANS score had favorable performance in survival prediction. Patients were divided into three risk categories based on LANS score. Median survival for patients with low, intermediate, and high LANS scores was 31.7, 23.5, and 11.5 months, respectively (p<0.0001). The disease control rates were 96.4%, 64.3%, and 32.1%, respectively (p<0.0001). The predictive performance and risk stratification ability of the LANS score were confirmed in validation and entire cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The LANS score model can provide individualized survival prediction and risk stratification in patients with unresectable HCC undergoing dual PD-1 and angiogenesis blockade therapy.

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy with anti-angiogenesis agents and immune checkpoint inhibitors for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) has been proven to be an ideal choice for treating unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). HAIC-based treatment showed great potential for treating uHCC. However, large-scale studies on HAIC-based treatments and meta-analyses of first-line treatments for uHCC are lacking.

AIM

To investigate better first-line treatment options for uHCC and to assess the safety and efficacy of HAIC combined with angiogenesis inhibitors, programmed cell death of protein 1 (PD-1) and its ligand (PD-L1) blockers (triple therapy) under real-world conditions.

METHODS

Several electronic databases were searched to identify eligible randomized controlled trials for this meta-analysis. Study-level pooled analyses of hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) were performed. This was a retrospective single-center study involving 442 patients with uHCC who received triple therapy or angiogenesis inhibitors plus PD-1/PD-L1 blockades (AIPB) at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from January 2018 to April 2023. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the bias between the groups. The Kaplan-Meier method and cox regression were used to analyse the survival data, and the log-rank test was used to compare the suvival time between the groups.

RESULTS

A total of 13 randomized controlled trials were included. HAIC alone and in combination with sorafenib were found to be effective treatments (P values for ORs: HAIC, 0.95; for HRs: HAIC + sorafenib, 0.04). After PSM, 176 HCC patients were included in the analysis. The triple therapy group (n = 88) had a longer median overall survival than the AIPB group (n = 88) (31.6 months vs 14.6 months, P < 0.001) and a greater incidence of adverse events (94.3% vs 75.4%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggests that HAIC-based treatments are likely to be the best choice for uHCC. Our findings confirm that triple therapy is more effective for uHCC patients than AIPB.

Management of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Systemic Versus Locoregional Therapy

Intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprises a heterogeneous group of patients with varying levels of tumor burden. Transarterial chemoembolization was traditionally the mainstay of treatment for intermediate-stage HCC for almost 2 decades. New and emerging treatment options have revolutionized HCC therapy, allowing for broader application to patients with intermediate- and advanced-stage disease. Accordingly, new guidelines acknowledge these options, and intermediate stage HCC can now be treated with surgical, locoregional or systemic therapies, or a combination thereof. Patients will continue to benefit from the development of complex treatment strategies in a multidisciplinary setting to optimize individual outcomes.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Algorithm for Evaluating the Efficacy of Postoperative Adjuvant TACE Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is a lack of a reliable outcome prediction model for patients evaluating the feasibility of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PATACE) therapy. Our goal was to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

From January 2013 to June 2017, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from the Liver Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University received postoperative adjuvant Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) therapy after liver cancer resection. A Cox proportional hazards model was established for these patients, followed by internal validation (enhanced bootstrap resampling technique) to further evaluate the predictive performance and discriminanceevaluate the predictive performance and discriminance, and compare it with other predictive models. The prognostic factors considered included tumour number, maximum tumor diameter, Edmondson-Steiner (ES) grade, Microvascular invasion (MVI) grade, Ki67, age, sex, hepatitis B surface antigen, cirrhosis, Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, Childpugh grade, body mass index (BMI), Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR).

RESULTS

The endpoint of the study was overall survival. The median overall survival was 36 (95%CI: 34.0-38.0) months, with 1-year, 2-year and 3-year survival rates being 96.3%, 84.0% and 75.3%, respectively. Tumour number, MVI grade, and BMI was incorporated into the model, which had good differentiation and accuracy. Internal validation (enhanced bootstrap) suggested that Harrell's C statistic is 0.72. The model consistently outperforms other currently available models.

CONCLUSION

This model may be an easy-to-use tool for screening patients suitable for PA-TACE treatment and guiding the selection of clinical protocols. But further research and external validation are required.

Efficacy of Lenvatinib in Combination With PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody and Interventional Treatment for Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Impact on Serum Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor and Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 Levels: A Retrospective Study

Objectives: To scrutinize the therapeutic efficiency and safety profile of lenvatinib, accompanied by the programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody, and interventional treatment in managing intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods: Retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data from 93 patients suffering from intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, treated at our institution from May 2018 to April 2020. Patients were divided based on the therapeutic regimen: 43 cases constituted the control group receiving lenvatinib plus transhepatic artery chemoembolization (TACE), while the remaining 50 cases in the study group were managed with lenvatinib, PD-1 monoclonal antibody, and TACE. Outcome measures included therapeutic efficacy, tumor markers (carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA], alpha-fetoprotein [AFP], α-L-fucosidase [AFU], carbohydrate antigen 199 [CA199]), immune response indices (CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, CD4+/CD8+ ratio), pertinent cytokine levels (vascular endothelial growth factor [VEGF], matrix metalloproteinase-9 [MMP-9], basic fibroblast growth factor [aFGF], acidic fibroblast growth factor [bFGF]), quality of life (as per Quality of Life Assessment Scale for Cancer Patients [QOL-LC] scores), adverse effects, and survival rates. Results: The study group exhibited a significantly enhanced total effective rate compared to the control group (74.00% vs 53.49%, P < .05). Post-treatment levels of CEA, AFP, AFU, CA199, CD8+, VEGF, MMP-9, aFGF, and bFGF were notably lower in both groups, particularly in the study group. Contrastingly, CD3+, CD4+, CD4+/CD8+ratios, and QOL-LC scores were substantially elevated in the study group (P < .05). Adverse reaction prevalence was analogous between 2 groups (27.91% vs 26.00%; P > .05). Moreover, the study group reported significantly higher 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates than the control group (P < .05). Conclusion: The combined use of lenvatinib, PD-1 monoclonal antibody, and interventional treatment for intermediate to advanced hepatocellular carcinoma may have a definitive therapeutic efficacy. This regimen is effective in reducing tumor marker levels, enhancing immune function, modulating VEGF, MMP-9, and other related cytokine levels, and improving patients' quality of life without significantly augmenting adverse effects. This treatment paradigm also contributes to increased survival rates and promises favorable prognosis.

Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization for Treatment-Naive Hepatocellular Carcinoma Has Different Treatment Effects Depending on Central or Peripheral Tumor Location

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the treatment efficacy of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for treatment-naive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to tumor location and burden.

Methods

Between 2010 and 2019, consecutive patients who underwent TACE as the first treatment were enrolled. Tumors were classified into two categories based on their location, as central or peripheral tumors. Tumors in the central zone, which is within 1 cm of the main trunk or the first branch of the portal vein, were classified as central tumors, while those located in the peripheral zone were classified as peripheral tumors. Patients were grouped according to the HCC location and up-to-7 criteria. Patients with central tumors were classified into the central arm and those with only peripheral tumors were classified into the peripheral arm. Patients within and beyond the up-to-7 criteria were classified into the up-to-7 in and up-to-7 out-groups, respectively. Local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared per nodule (central tumor vs. peripheral tumor) and per patient (central arm vs. peripheral arm), respectively. The prognostic factors of LRFS and PFS were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

A total of 174 treatment-naive patients with 352 HCCs were retrospectively enrolled. Ninety-six patients and 130 lesions were selected by propensity score matching. Median LRFS was longer for peripheral tumors than central tumors (not reached vs. 3.3 months, p < 0.001). Median PFS was 17.1 months (8.3-24.9) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 in, 7.0 months (3.3-12.7) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 out, 8.4 months (4.0-12.6) in the central arm and up-to-7 in, and 3.0 months (1.2-4.9) in the central arm and up-to-7 out-groups. The peripheral arm and up-to-7 in-groups had significantly longer PFS than the other three groups (p = 0.013, p = 0.015, p < 0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis confirmed that the central zone and central arm were associated with high adjusted hazard ratios for tumor recurrence or death (2.87, p < 0.001; 2.89, p < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusion

Treatment-naive HCCs in the peripheral zone had a longer LRFS and PFS following TACE compared to those in the central zone.

Real-world efficacy and safety of TACE plus camrelizumab and apatinib in patients with HCC (CHANCE2211): a propensity score matching study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus camrelizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting programmed death-1, and apatinib for patients with intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world setting.

METHODS

A total of 586 HCC patients treated with either TACE plus camrelizumab and apatinib (combination group, n = 107) or TACE monotherapy (monotherapy group, n = 479) were included retrospectively. Propensity score matching analysis was used to match patients. The overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and safety in the combination group were described in comparison to monotherapy.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching (1:2), 84 patients in the combination group were matched to 147 patients in the monotherapy group. The median age was 57 years and 71/84 (84.5%) patients were male in the combination group, while the median age was 57 years with 127/147 (86.4%) male in the monotherapy group. The median OS, PFS, and ORR in the combination group were significantly higher than those in the monotherapy group (median OS, 24.1 vs. 15.7 months, p = 0.008; median PFS, 13.5 vs. 7.7 months, p = 0.003; ORR, 59.5% [50/84] vs. 37.4% [55/147], p = 0.002). On multivariable Cox regression, combination therapy was associated with significantly better OS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.64; p < 0.001) and PFS (adjusted HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.37-0.74; p < 0.001). Grade 3 or 4 adverse events occurred in 14/84 (16.7%) and 12/147 (8.2%) in the combination and monotherapy groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

TACE plus camrelizumab and apatinib showed significantly better OS, PFS, and ORR versus TACE monotherapy for predominantly advanced HCC.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Compared with TACE monotherapy, TACE plus immunotherapy and molecular targeted therapy showed better clinical efficacy for predominantly advanced HCC patients, with a higher incidence of adverse events.

KEY POINTS

• This propensity score-matched study demonstrates that TACE plus immunotherapy and molecular targeted therapy have a longer OS, PFS, and ORR compared with TACE monotherapy in HCC. • Grade 3 or 4 adverse events occurred in 14/84 (16.7%) patients treated with TACE plus immunotherapy and molecular targeted therapy compared with 12/147 (8.2%) patients in the monotherapy group, while no grade 5 adverse events were observed in all cohorts.

The Antitumor Impact of Combining Hepatic Artery Ligation With Copper Chelators for Liver Cancer

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the main cancer-related mortality worldwide. Thus, there is a constant search for improvement in treatment strategies to enhance the prognosis of this malignancy. The study aims to investigate the combined antitumor activity of ammonium tetrathiomolybdate (TM, copper chelator) combined with hepatic artery ligation (HAL) for liver cancer.

Methods

A total of 40 Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats bearing hepatic tumors were randomly divided into four groups: the control group without any treatment (control), HAL only (HAL), given TM by gavage (TM), and given TM combined with HAL (HAL + TM). The concentrations of serum copper were measured at the predetermined time points. Tumor growth rate, overall survival (OS), expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and microvessel density (MVD), as determined by immunohistochemical examination, were compared.

Results

HAL treatment transiently could elevate alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) but resumed to baseline within 1 week. Serum copper was significantly increased in tumor-bearing animals over time. The values of serum copper in the three treatment groups were significantly lower than those in the control group at different time points, with the lowest values observed in the TM group (P < .05). The average tumor size was 30.33 ± 2.58, 20.83 ± 2.93, 16.80 ± 3.84, and 10.88 ± 1.08 mm in the control, HAL, TM, and HAL + TM groups, respectively (HAL + TM vs other groups, all P < .05). In addition, the expression levels of HIF-1α, VEGF, and MVD were significantly lower in the HAL + TM group than those in the other groups (P < .05). The OS of rats in the combined groups was significantly prolonged combined to the other groups (P < .05), with survival time of 19.1 ± 0.64, 25.4 ± 1.24, 25.3 ± 1.78, and 29.9 ± 2.22 days in the control, HAL, TM, and HAL + TM groups, respectively.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that combined treatment with TM and HAL holds great potential for liver cancer treatment by reducing tumor hypoxia and angiogenesis. The observed results indicate that these combinations may offer a novel target and strategy for interventional therapy of liver cancer.

Prognosis Prediction of CRAFITY Score in HCC Undergoing TACE Combined with PD-(L)1 Inhibitors and Molecular Targeted Therapy

Background

The CRAFITY (C-reactive protein and alpha-fetoprotein in immunotherapy) score has demonstrated prognostic significance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing immunotherapy. The study aimed to validate accuracy of CRAFITY score on predicting prognosis for patients with HCC treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with PD-(L)1 inhibitors and molecular targeted therapy.

Methods

Eighty-five HCC patients who underwent TACE in combination with molecular targeted therapy (MTT) and PD-(L)1 Inhibitors were consecutively enrolled from November 2019 to November 2022. Patients were divided into CRAFITY 0 score (n=32), CRAFITY 1 score (n=31), and CRAFITY 2 score (n=22), respectively. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), and the secondary outcomes included tumor response rate and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs). Factors affecting survival were identified via Cox regression analysis.

Results

The median overall survival (OS) for HCC patients with CRAFITY scores of 0, 1, and 2 was 33.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.1-39.7), 34.5 months (95% CI: 23.1-45.9), and 24.2 months (95% CI: 13.9-39.3), respectively, there were statistical differences among the three groups (p<0.05). The progression-free survival (PFS) was 14.1 months (95% CI: 10.0-18.2), 14.1 months (95% CI: 9.0-19.2), and 9.3 months (95% CI: 7.2-11.4) for patients with CRAFITY scores of 1, 2, and 3, respectively, with a significant difference between the three groups (p<0.05). In patients with CRAFITY scores of 1, 2, and 3, the disease control rates (DCR) were 94%, 84%, and 73%, respectively (p < 0.05), while the overall response rates (ORR) were 78.1%, 67.7%, and 59.1%, respectively (p = 0.318). A higher CRAFITY score showed a correlation with an increased frequency of fatigue and grade 3 fever (p<0.05). Moreover, CRAFITY 2 score was an independent risk factor for both OS (HR = 2.610(1.281-4.564), p = 0.014) and PFS (HR = 2.419(1.281-4.564), p = 0.006).

Conclusion

The CRAFITY score may provide an efficient predictive capacity for prognosis in HCC patients undergoing TACE combined with PD-(L)1 inhibitors and molecular targeted therapy.

"Six-and-Twelve" Prognostic Score in Transarterial Chemoembolization-Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients who qualify for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) using the "six-and-twelve" prognostic score. The research was conducted on a patient cohort between 2009 and 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, involving patients diagnosed with unresectable hepatocarcinoma, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging A or B, and Child-Pugh staging A or B. Exclusion criteria included patients with spontaneous tumor rupture, other neoplasms, decompensated liver cirrhosis, and a lack of reference images. The study assessed the size of the largest nodule and the number of tumors based on imaging studies. Overall survival was defined as the time from initial TACE to death from any cause, with telephonic follow-up conducted. Patients were categorized into three groups based on tumor burden: ≤6, >6-≤12, and >12. Mortality rates at 12, 24, and 36 months were compared using the chi-square test for categorical variables and the ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis tests for continuous variables, depending on their distribution.

RESULTS

A total of 90 patients were included in the study, with a median age of 69 years (interquartile range (IQR): 62-77). Among the patients, 61.1% had a tumor burden of six or less. The overall survival rate was found to have a median of 28.4 months (IQR: 26.3-30.5), with survival rates at one, two, and three years being 84.7%, 55.2%, and 29.4%, respectively. It was observed that mortality increased in proportion to tumor burden, and this difference was statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The use of tumor burden, with cut-off points of six and 12, as a prognostic score proved to be a valuable tool for predicting mortality in the studied cohort.

The current landscape of therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Globally, primary liver cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths, with approximately 830 000 deaths worldwide in 2020, accounting for 8.3% of total deaths from all cancer types (1). This disease disproportionately affects those in countries with low or medium Human Development Index scores in Eastern Asia, South-Eastern Asia, and Northern and Western Africa (2). Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common type of primary liver cancer, often develops in the background of chronic liver disease, caused by hepatitis B or C virus, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), or other diseases that cause cirrhosis. Prognosis can vary dramatically based on number, size, and location of tumors. Hepatic synthetic dysfunction and performance status (PS) also impact survival. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system best accounts for these variations, providing a reliable prognostic stratification. Therapeutic considerations of this complex disease necessitate a multidisciplinary approach and can range from curative-intent surgical resection, liver transplantation or image-guided ablation to more complex liver-directed therapies like transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and systemic therapy. Recent advances in the understanding of the tumor biology and microenvironment have brought new advances and approvals for systemic therapeutic agents, often utilizing immunotherapy or VEGF-targeted agents to modulate the immune response. This review will discuss the current landscape in the treatments available for early, intermediate, and advanced stage HCC.

Prediction model of no-response before the first transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: TACF score

Previous clinic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) mainly focused on the overall survival, whereas a simple-to-use tool for predicting the response to the first TACE and the management of risk classification before TACE are lacking. Our aim was to develop a scoring system calculated manually for these patients. A total of 437 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent TACE treatment were carefully selected for analysis. They were then randomly divided into two groups: a training group comprising 350 patients and a validation group comprising 77 patients. Furthermore, 45 HCC patients who had recently undergone TACE treatment been included in the study to validate the model's efficacy and applicability. The factors selected for the predictive model were comprehensively based on the results of the LASSO, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The discrimination, calibration ability and clinic utility of models were evaluated in both the training and validation groups. A prediction model incorporated 3 objective imaging characteristics and 2 indicators of liver function. The model showed good discrimination, with AUROCs of 0.735, 0.706 and 0.884 and in the training group and validation groups, and good calibration. The model classified the patients into three groups based on the calculated score, including low risk, median risk and high-risk groups, with rates of no response to TACE of 26.3%, 40.2% and 76.8%, respectively. We derived and validated a model for predicting the response of patients with HCC before receiving the first TACE that had adequate performance and utility. This model may be a useful and layered management tool for patients with HCC undergoing TACE.

Multidisciplinary consensus recommendations for management of hepatocellular carcinoma in Middle East and North Africa region

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a growing health concern projected to cross over a million cases worldwide by 2025. HCC presents a significant burden of disease in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries due to a high prevalence of risk factors such as hepatitis C and B infections and rising incidence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. In August 2022, an advisory meeting consisting of experts from 5 MENA countries was convened in an attempt to provide consensus recommendations on HCC screening, early diagnosis, current treatment modalities and unmet medical needs in the region. Data were collected from a pre-meeting survey questionnaire and responses analysed and presented during the advisory meeting. This review summarizes the evidence discussed at the meeting and provides expert recommendations on the management of HCC. The 2022 update of Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging and treatment strategy and its implementation in the MENA region was extensively discussed. A key consensus of the expert panel was that multidisciplinary care is crucial to effective patient management that results in better clinical outcomes and overall survival of the patient. The panel recommended the use of predictive and early response biomarkers to guide clinicians in arriving at more effective therapeutic decisions. The experts also emphasized the role of robust screening/surveillance systems, population-based registries, effective referral pathways and standardization of guidelines to ensure the successful management of HCC in the region.

Identification of BRD7 by whole-exome sequencing as a predictor for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients undergoing TACE

OBJECTIVE

In the present study, we aimed to identify potential predictors of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using whole-exome sequencing (WES) in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In A total of 51 patients, newly diagnosed with intermediate-stage HCC between January 2013 and December 2020, were enrolled. Prior to treatment, histological samples were collected for western blotting and immunohistochemistry. The predictive roles of clinical indicators and genes in patient prognosis were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Finally, the correlation between imaging features and gene signatures was examined.

RESULTS

Using WES, we identified that bromodomain-containing protein 7 (BRD7) was significantly mutated in patients with different TACE responses. No significant difference in BRD7 expression was observed between patients with and without BRD7 mutations. HCC tumors exhibited higher BRD7 than normal liver tissues. Multivariate analysis revealed that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS). In addition, Child-Pugh class, BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). Patients with wild-type BRD7 and high BRD7 expression had worse PFS and OS, whereas those with mutated BRD7 and low BRD7 expression exhibited the best PFS and OS. The Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that wash-in enhancement on computed tomography might be an independent risk factor for high BRD7 expression.

CONCLUSION

BRD7 expression may be an independent risk factor for prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Imaging features such as wash-in enhancement are closely related to BRD7 expression.

Transarterial Chemoembolization for Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Child-Pugh B7

Background and Objectives

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable early or intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and Child-Pugh (CP)-B liver dysfunction.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study enrolled patients with treatment-naïve HCC treated with TACE monotherapy between January 2012 and December 2020 at six Chinese hospitals. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and the secondary outcomes included the objective response rate (ORR) according to the modified RECIST and adverse events (AEs). Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to reduce bias between the CP-B and CP-A groups.

Results

A total of 847 patients were included in the study. CP-A patients had significantly longer OS (median, 22.0 vs 19.3 months, P = 0.032) than CP-B (score of 7-9) patients, but a non-significant trend compared with CP-B (score of 7) patients (median, 22.0 vs 20.5 months, P = 0.254). After PSM, the median OS was 22.7 months for CP-A patients, while it was 19.3 months for CP-B (score of 7-9) patients (p = 0.026) and 20.5 months for CP-B (score of 7) patients (p = 0.155). CP-A patients achieved a significantly better ORR (53.0% vs 35.8%, P < 0.05) compared to CP-B (score of 7-9) patients, but a non-significant trend was observed in CP-B (score of 7) patients (53.0% vs 51.1%, P > 0.05). The post-embolization syndrome rates in the CP-A and CP-B (score of 7) cohorts were 52.1% and 53.3%, respectively. No new safety concerns were observed.

Conclusion

Patients with HCC with a CP score of 7 receiving TACE showed a similar prognosis and safety profile to CP-A patients.

Mapping research trends of transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma from 2012 to 2021: A bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a therapy where drugs aimed to slow or halt tumor development are injected into the artery supplying for HCC tissues. A comprehensive analysis of all the articles on TACE for HCC can give us a general understanding of the progress in this field and provide guidance for future research.

AIM

To analyze and visualize scientific results and research trends in TACE treatment for HCC.

METHODS

The "Web of Science" database was used to identify articles regarding TACE for the treatment of HCC from 2012 to 2021. VOSviewer and CiteSpace were used to analyze the publications trends, collaboration between countries/insti-tutions/authors, and the co-occurrence of keywords, keyword bursts, and references.

RESULTS

A total of 5728 original articles on TACE for HCC were retrieved. Regarding the volume of publications, the total number of yearly publications showed a generally increasing trend. China had the highest number of articles, while the United States achieved the highest Hirsch index and highest number of citations. The Sun Yat-sen University in China was most prolific institution. The most active author was Park, J.W from South Korea. The Journal of Vascular and Interventional Radiology (234 articles) was the most productive journal. There is a growing trend toward international collaboration in TACE for HCC. Cluster networks of co-cited references suggested that practice guidelines and targeted therapies are an essential theme in this field. In addition, cluster analysis based on keyword co-occurrence identified the research topic "prediction of TACE treatment" as a hotspot, and propensity score matching can be used to help investigators conduct innovative studies in the future.

CONCLUSION

The results of our bibliometric analysis provide the latest trends and hot topics in TACE therapy for HCC.

Development of a machine learning algorithm to predict complications of total laparoscopic anterior resection and natural orifice specimen extraction surgery in rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Total laparoscopic anterior resection (tLAR) and natural orifice specimen extraction surgery (NOSES) has been widely adopted in the treatment of rectal cancer (RC). However, no study has been performed to predict the short-term outcomes of tLAR using machine learning algorithms to analyze a national cohort.

METHODS

Data from consecutive RC patients who underwent tLAR were collected from the China NOSES Database (CNDB). The random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN), logistic regression (LR) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithms were used to develop risk models to predict short-term complications of tLAR. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Gini coefficient, specificity and sensitivity were calculated to assess the performance of each risk model. The selected factors from the models were evaluated by relative importance.

RESULTS

A total of 4313 RC patients were identified, and 667 patients (15.5%) developed postoperative complications. The machine learning model of XGBoost showed more promising results in the prediction of complication than other models (AUROC 0.90, P < 0.001). The performance was similar when internal and external validation was used. In the XGBoost model, the top four influential factors were the distance from the lower edge of the tumor to the anus, age at diagnosis, surgical time and comorbidities. In risk stratification analysis, the rate of postoperative complications in the high-risk group was significantly higher than in the medium- and low-risk groups (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The machine learning model shows potential benefits in predicting the risk of complications in RC patients after tLAR. This novel approach can provide reliable individual information for surgical treatment recommendations.

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict the Prognosis of Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Recent studies have shown that inflammatory indicators are closely related to the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and they can serve as powerful indices for predicting recurrence and survival time after treatment. However, the predictive ability of inflammatory indicators has not been systematically studied in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Therefore, the objective of this research was to determine the predictive value of preoperative inflammatory indicators for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE.

Methods

Our retrospective research involved 381 treatment-naïve patients in 3 institutions, including the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Nantong First People's Hospital, and Nantong Tumor Hospital, from January 2007 to December 2020 that received TACE as initial treatment. Relevant data of patients were collected from the electronic medical record database, and the recurrence and survival time of patients after treatment were followed up. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to compress and screen the variables. We utilized Cox regression to determine the independent factors associated with patient outcomes and constructed a nomogram based on multivariate results. Finally, the nomogram was verified from discriminability, calibration ability, and practical applicability.

Results

Multivariate analysis revealed that the levels of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and lymphocyte count were independent influential indicators for overall survival (OS), whereas the levels of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) was an independent influential index for progression. Nomograms exhibited an excellent concordance index (C-index), in the nomogram of OS, the C-index was 0.753 and 0.755 in training and validation cohort, respectively; and in the nomogram of progression, the C-index was 0.781 and 0.700, respectively. The time-dependent C-index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram all exhibited ideal discrimination ability. Calibration curves significantly coincided with the standard lines, which indicated that the nomogram had high stability and low degree of over-fitting. Decision curve analysis revealed a wider range of threshold probabilities and could augment net benefits. The Kaplan-Meier curves for risk stratification indicated that the prognosis of patients varied significantly between risk categories (P < .0001).

Conclusions

The developed prognostic nomograms based on preoperative inflammatory indicators revealed high predictive accuracy for survival and recurrence. It can be a valuable clinical instrument for guiding individualized treatment and predicting prognosis.

Validation of the ALBI-TAE model and comparison of seven scoring systems for predicting survival outcome in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

The ALBI-TAE model was recently proposed as a scoring system to select suitable patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, this scoring system has not been externally validated. Therefore, we validated this score and compared it with six scoring systems in terms of prognostication.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 480 patients with intermediate-stage HCC who underwent TACE at a tertiary care center between January 2008 and December 2019. Seven scores, which included the ALBI-TAE model, Bolondi's subclassification, HAP score, mHAP-II score, tumor burden score, six-and-twelve score, and seven-eleven criteria, were calculated and a head-to-head comparison was made in terms of prognostic power using Harrell's C-index. Prognostic factors associated with survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

ALBI-TAE group A had the longest median overall survival (OS) of 40.80 months, followed by ALBI-TAE groups B, C, and D of 20.14 months, 10.58 months, and 7.54 months, respectively, with significant differences (P < 0.001). Among the seven scores, the ALBI-TAE model had the best predictive performance (Harrell's C-index 0.633) in differentiating OS in intermediate-stage HCC patients. Moreover, the ALBI-TAE model was identified as an independent prognostic factor for survival outcome in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirmed the value of the ALBI-TAE model with excellent prognostic discriminatory power in intermediate-stage HCC patients. The ALBI-TAE model is a simple and valuable predictive tool to identify patients with good prognosis who can get the most benefit from TACE.

Development and Validation of an α-Fetoprotein Tumor Burden Score Model to Predict Postrecurrence Survival among Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to establish a prognostic model to predict postrecurrence survival (PRS) probability after initial resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

STUDY DESIGN

Patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection were identified through a multicenter consortium (training cohort, TC); data were from a separate institution were used as validation cohort (VC). The α-fetoprotein (AFP) tumor burden score (ATS) was defined as the distance from the origin on a 3-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system that incorporated 3 variables: largest tumor diameter ( x axis), number of tumors ( y axis), and ln AFP ( z axis). ATS was calculated using the Pythagorean theorem: ATS 2 = (largest tumor diameter) 2 + (number of tumors) 2 + (ln AFP) 2 , where ATS d and ATS r represent ATS at the time of initial diagnosis and at the time of recurrence, respectively. The final model was ATS m = ATS d + 4 × ATS r . Predictive performance and discrimination of the ATS model were evaluated and compared with traditional staging systems.

RESULTS

The ATS model demonstrated strong predictive performance of PRS in both the TC (area under the curve [AUC] 0.70) and VC (AUC 0.71). An ATS-based nomogram was able to stratify patients accurately into low- and high-risk categories relative to PRS (TC: ATS m ≤ 27, 74.9 months vs. ATS m ≥ 28, 23.3 months; VC: ATS m ≤ 27, 59.4 months vs. ATS m ≥ 28, 15.1 months; both p < 0.001). The ATS model predicted PRS among patients undergoing curative or noncurative treatment of HCC recurrence (both p < 0.05). Of note, the ATS model outperformed the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), China Liver Cancer (CNLC), and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems relative to 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year PRS (AUC 0.70, vs. BCLC, AUC 0.50, vs. CNLC, AUC 0.54, vs. AJCC, AUC 0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

The ATS model had excellent prognostic discriminatory power to stratify patients relative to PRS.

Radiomic advances in the transarterial chemoembolization related therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Radiomics is a hot topic in the research on customized oncology treatment, efficacy evaluation, and tumor prognosis prediction. To achieve the goal of mining the heterogeneity information within the tumor tissue, the image features concealed within the tumoral images are turned into quantifiable data features. This article primarily describes the research progress of radiomics and clinical-radiomics combined model in the prediction of efficacy, the choice of treatment modality, and survival in transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and TACE combination therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy combined with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy and molecularly targeted agents for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a real world study

Background

Molecular targeted therapy combined with immunotherapy significantly improves the prognosis of patients with advanced liver cancer. Additionally, hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) can improve the prognosis of patients with advanced liver cancer. This real-world study aimed to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of HAIC combined with molecular targeted therapy and immunotherapy in the treatment of primary unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC).

Methods

A total of 135 patients with uHCC were enrolled in this study. Progression-free survival (PFS) was the primary endpoint. The efficacy of the combination therapy was assessed based on the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) guidelines. Overall survival (OS), adverse events (AEs) and surgical conversion rate were the secondary endpoints. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to examine independent prognostic factors. For sensitivity analysis, inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to balance the influence of the tested confounding factors between groups to verify the robustness of conversion surgery for survival benefits. The E-values were estimated to assess robustness to unmeasured confounders.

Results

The median number of therapies was three. Approximately 60% of the patients had portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT). The most common targeted drugs were lenvatinib and bevacizumab, whereas the most common immunotherapy drug was sintilimab. The overall objective response rate (ORR) was 54.1%, and the disease control rate (DCR) was 94.6%. A total of 97 (72%) patients experienced AEs of grades 3-4. Fatigue, pain and fever were the most common symptoms of grade 3-4 AEs. The median PFS was 28 months and 7 months in the successful and unsuccessful conversion groups, respectively. The median OS was 30 months and 15 months in the successful and unsuccessful conversion groups, respectively. Successful conversion surgery, sex, hapatic vein invasion, BCLC stage, baseline tumour size, AFP levels and maximum therapeutic response were independent prognostic factors for PFS. Successful conversion surgery, number of interventions, hapatic vein invasion and total bilirubin levels were independent prognostic factors for OS. After IPTW, no standardised differences exceeding 0.1 were found. IPW-adjusted Kaplan-Meier curves showed that successful conversion surgery was an independent prognostic factor for both PFS and OS. The E-values of successful conversion surgery were 7.57 and 6.53 for OS and PFS, respectively, which indicated a relatively robust impact of successful conversion surgery on the prognosis of patients.

Conclusion

Patients with primary uHCC undergoing HAIC combined with immunotherapy and molecular targeted therapy have a higher tumour regression rate and the side effects are manageable. Patients undergoing surgery after combination therapy have survival benefits.

Balloon-occluded transarterial chemoembolization versus conventional transarterial chemoembolization for the treatment of single hepatocellular carcinoma: a propensity score matching analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare the safety and efficacy of balloon-occluded transarterial chemoembolization (B-TACE) and conventional TACE (C-TACE) in treating single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study included 523 patients who underwent C-TACE and 44 who underwent B-TACE as first-line treatment for single HCCs between November 2017 and December 2019. After propensity score matching (PSM), initial tumor response rates, local tumor progression (LTP), and major complication rates were evaluated in the 32 pairs of PSM matched population.

RESULTS

In the 32 pairs of PSM cohort, B-TACE showed distinct superiority over C-TACE in treating single HCCs, with significantly higher initial complete response (CR) rates (93.8% vs. 62.5%, p = 0.005). During a median follow-up of 37 months (range, 12.7-46.5 months), 13 patients (40.6%) who underwent B-TACE and 16 (50%) who underwent C-TACE showed LTP of treated lesions. Size-based sub-group analysis showed that the median times to LTP in patients with medium- to large-sized tumors (> 3 cm) were significantly longer in the B-TACE (27 months; 95% confidence interval [CI], 19.7-34.3 months) than in the C-TACE (13 months; 95% CI, 3.9-22.1 months) group (p = 0.019). The major complication rate was similar between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

B-TACE had a higher initial CR rate than C-TACE in treating single HCCs. Moreover, size-based subgroup analysis showed that time to LTP was significantly longer in patients with medium- to large-sized HCCs (> 3 cm) who underwent B-TACE rather than C-TACE.

KEY POINTS

• B-TACE was superior to C-TACE in treating single HCC, with a significantly higher initial complete response rate after one session of treatment. • In size-based subgroup analysis, time to LTP was significantly longer in patients with medium- to large-sized HCCs (>3 cm) who underwent B-TACE rather than C-TACE. • B-TACE should be considered an alternative treatment option for medium- to large-sized single HCCs (>3 cm) in patients with a nonresectable condition and those who prefer nonsurgical treatment.

An Integrated Liver Function, Systemic Inflammation, and Tumor Characteristic Score Predicts Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Resection

BACKGROUND

Several scoring systems are currently used to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but none of them integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model. The current study aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic score that integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model to predict the prognosis of HCC after curative resection.

METHODS

Patients with HCC who underwent curative liver resection were included in a training set (n = 1027). Multivariate Cox regression was performed to determine the risk factors for a poor prognosis. A prognostic score was developed by assigning points for risk factors in proportion to beta coefficients in a Cox multivariable model. Predictive performance and distinction ability of the prognostic score were further evaluated in two independent validation cohorts treated with either curative resection (n = 281) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) (n = 404) and compared with 16 other models.

RESULTS

The prognostic predictive system, named the function-inflammation-burden-alpha-fetoprotein (FIBA) score, was derived by assigning points for six independent predictors including albumin, total bilirubin, lymphocyte count, diameter of the largest tumor, number of tumors, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The FIBA score showed an outperformed predictive value compared with other systems in both training and validation cohorts by giving the highest C-index, likelihood ratio chi-square values, and Wald test values as well as the lowest Akaike information criterion.

CONCLUSION

The FIBA score can be used to stratify HCC patients treated with curative resection. Meanwhile, the FIBA score performs well against other prognostic scoring systems and is potentially broadly applicable to a TACE-treated patient cohort.

Computed tomography texture analysis combined with preoperative clinical factors serve as a predictor of early efficacy of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

To investigate a pre-therapeutic radiomics nomogram to accurately predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lesion responses to transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS

This retrospective study from January 2012 to 2022 included 92 TACE-treated patients who underwent liver contrast-enhanced CT scan 7 days before treatment, having complete clinical information. We extracted quantitative texture parameters and clinical factors for the largest tumors on the baseline arterial and portal venous phase CT images. An adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-penalized logistic regression identified independent predictors of tumor activity after TACE.

RESULTS

We fitted an adaptive LASSO regression model to narrow down the texture features and clinical risk factors of the tumor activity status. The selected texture features were used to construct radiomic scores (RadScore), which demonstrated superior performance in predicting tumor activity on both the training (area under the curve (AUC): 0.881, 95% CI: 0.799-0.963) and testing sets (AUC: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.726-1). A logistic regression-based nomogram was developed using RadScore and four selected clinical features. In the testing set, nomogram total points were significant predictors (P = 0.034), and the training set showed no departure from perfect fit (P = 0.833). Internal validation of the nomogram was obtained for the training (AUC: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.837-0.984) and testing (AUC: 0.889, 95% CI: 0.746-1) sets.

CONCLUSION

We propose a nomogram to predict the early response of HCC lesions to TACE treatment with high accuracy, which may serve as an additional criterion in multidisciplinary decision-making treatment.

CXCL1 and CXCL6 Are Potential Predictors for HCC Response to TACE

Distinct immune patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have prognostic implications in the response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Thus, we aimed to exploratively analyze tumor tissue of HCC patients who do or do not respond to TACE, and to identify novel prognostic biomarkers predictive of response to TACE. We retrospectively included 15 HCC patients who had three consecutive TACE between January 2019 and November 2019. Eight patients had a response while seven patients had no response to TACE. All patients had measurable disease according to mRECIST. Corresponding tumor tissue samples were processed for differential expression profiling using NanoString nCounter^® PanCancer immune profiling panel. Immune-related pathways were broadly upregulated in TACE responders. The top differentially regulated genes were the upregulated CXCL1 (log2fc 4.98, Benjamini-Hochberg (BH)-p < 0.001), CXCL6 (log2fc 4.43, BH-p = 0.016) and the downregulated MME (log2fc -4.33, BH-p 0.001). CD8/T-regs was highly increased in responders, whereas the relative number of T-regs to tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) was highly decreased. We preliminary identified CXCL1 and CXCL6 as candidate genes that might have the potential to serve as therapeutically relevant biomarkers in HCC patients. This might pave the way to improve patient selection for TACE in HCC patients beyond expert consensus.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Decompensated Cirrhotic Patients: A Comprehensive Overview

Primary liver cancer is the sixth most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for 75% of primary liver cancer cases, mostly on the basis of cirrhosis. However, the data and therapeutic options for the treatment of HCC in patients with decompensated cirrhosis are rather limited. This patient category is often considered to be in a terminal stage without the possibility of a specific treatment except liver transplantation, which is restricted by several criteria and liver donor shortages. Systemic treatments may provide a solution for patients with Child Pugh class B or C since they are less invasive. Although most of the existing trials have excluded patients with decompensated cirrhosis, there are increasing data from real-life settings that show acceptable tolerability and satisfying efficacy in terms of response. The data on the administration of locoregional treatments in such patients are also limited, but the overall survival seems to be potentially prolonged when patients are carefully selected, and close adverse event monitoring is applied. The aim of this review is to analyze the existing data regarding the administration of treatments in decompensated patients with HCC, evaluate the effect of therapy on overall survival and highlight the potential risks in terms of tolerability.

Development and Validation of a Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A-associated Prognostic Model for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

High serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels have been identified as an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to construct a VEGF-included prognostic model to accurately perform individualized predictions of survival probability for patients with unresectable HCC.

Patients and Methods

From October 2018 to March 2021, 182 consecutive newly diagnosed patients with unresectable HCC were retrospectively enrolled. Baseline serum VEGF-A and other characteristics were collected for all patients. Univariate Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression model were applied to develop the prognostic model, enhanced bootstrap method with 100 replicates was performed to validate its discrimination and calibration. We compared the final model with China Liver Cancer (CNLC) stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and the model without the "VEGF". Finally, the established model was stratified by age.

Results

The VEGF-associated prognostic model we established has high accuracy with an overall C-index of 0.7892 after correction for optimistic estimates. The area under the curve (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year after correction were 0.843, 0.860, 0.833, respectively, and the calibration of the model was 0.1153, 0.1514, and 0.1711, respectively. The final model showed significant improvement in predicting OS when compared to the other models according to Harrell's C-index, The AUC of the time-dependent ROC, area under the decision curve analysis (AUDC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI).

Conclusion

The VEGF-associated prognostic model may help to predict the survival probabilities of HCC patients with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further validation is required since we only verified this model using internal but not external data.

CT-radiomics and clinical risk scores for response and overall survival prognostication in TACE HCC patients

We aimed to identify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who will respond to repetitive transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) to improve the treatment algorithm. Retrospectively, 61 patients (mean age, 65.3 years ± 10.0 [SD]; 49 men) with 94 HCC mRECIST target-lesions who had three consecutive TACE between 01/2012 and 01/2020 were included. Robust and non-redundant radiomics features were extracted from the 24 h post-embolization CT. Five different clinical TACE-scores were assessed. Seven different feature selection methods and machine learning models were used. Radiomics, clinical and combined models were built to predict response to TACE on a lesion-wise and patient-wise level as well as its impact on overall-survival prognostication. 29 target-lesions of 19 patients were evaluated in the test set. Response rates were 37.9% (11/29) on the lesion-level and 42.1% (8/19) on the patient-level. Radiomics top lesion-wise response prognostications was AUC 0.55-0.67. Clinical scores revealed top AUCs of 0.65-0.69. The best working model combined the radiomic feature LargeDependenceHighGrayLevelEmphasis and the clinical score mHAP_II_score_group with AUC = 0.70, accuracy = 0.72. We transferred this model on a patient-level to achieve AUC = 0.62, CI = 0.41-0.83. The two radiomics-clinical features revealed overall-survival prognostication of C-index = 0.67. In conclusion, a random forest model using the radiomic feature LargeDependenceHighGrayLevelEmphasis and the clinical mHAP-II-score-group seems promising for TACE response prognostication.

Prediction of early treatment response to the combination therapy of TACE plus lenvatinib and anti-PD-1 antibody immunotherapy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: Multicenter retrospective study

Background and aim

The purpose of this study was to investigate and validate the efficacy of a nomogram model in predicting early objective response rate (ORR) in u-HCC patients receiving a combination of TACE, Lenvatinib, and anti-PD-1 antibody treatment after 3 months (triple therapy).

Method

This study included 169 u-HCC cases from five different hospitals. As training cohorts (n = 102), cases from two major centers were used, and external validation cohorts (n = 67) were drawn from the other three centers. The clinical data and contrast-enhanced MRI characteristics of patients were included in this retrospective study. For evaluating MRI treatment responses, the modified revaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select relevant variables and develop a nomogram model. Our as-constructed nomogram was highly consistent and clinically useful, as confirmed by the calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA); an independent external cohort also calibrated the nomogram.

Results

The ORR was 60.7% and the risk of early ORR was independently predicted by AFP, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), tumor number, and size in both the training (C-index = 0.853) and test (C-index = 0.731) cohorts. The calibration curve revealed that the nomogram-predicted values were consistent with the actual response rates in both cohorts. Furthermore, DCA indicated that our developed nomogram performed well in clinical settings.

Conclusion

The nomogram model accurately predicts early ORR achieved by triple therapy in u-HCC patients, which aids in individual decision-making and modifying additional therapies for u-HCC cases.

FAIL-T (AFP, AST, tumor sIze, ALT, and Tumor number): a model to predict intermediate-stage HCC patients who are not good candidates for TACE

Background

Patients with un-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are a diverse group with varying overall survival (OS). Despite the availability of several scoring systems for predicting OS, one of the unsolved problems is identifying patients who might not benefit from TACE. We aim to develop and validate a model for identifying HCC patients who would survive <6 months after their first TACE.

Methods

Patients with un-resectable HCC, BCLC stage 0-B, who received TACE as their first and only treatment between 2007 and 2020 were included in this study. Before the first TACE, demographic data, laboratory data, and tumor characteristics were obtained. Eligible patients were randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to training and validation sets. The former was used for model development using stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and the model was validated in the latter set.

Results

A total of 317 patients were included in the study (210 for the training set and 107 for the validation set). The baseline characteristics of the two sets were comparable. The final model (FAIL-T) included AFP, AST, tumor sIze, ALT, and Tumor number. The FAIL-T model yielded AUROCs of 0.855 and 0.806 for predicting 6-month mortality after TACE in the training and validation sets, respectively, while the "six-and-twelve" score showed AUROCs of 0.751 (P < 0.001) in the training set and 0.729 (P = 0.099) in the validation sets for the same purpose.

Conclusion

The final model is useful for predicting 6-month mortality in naive HCC patients undergoing TACE. HCC patients with high FAIL-T scores may not benefit from TACE, and other treatment options, if available, should be considered.

A Novel Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Sarcopenia Based TACE-Predict Model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Purpose

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) was commonly applied in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients across BCLC A-C stages with heterogeneous outcomes in real-world practice. We aimed to develop a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and sarcopenia-based prognostic nomogram to estimate the prognosis of HCC patients after TACE treatment.

Patients and Methods

Between June 2013 and December 2019, a total of 364 HCC patients who underwent TACE were included and randomly assigned to the training (n=255) and the validation cohort (n=109). Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on the third lumbar vertebra skeletal muscle mass index (L3-SMI). The multivariate Cox proportional risk model was used to generate a nomogram.

Results

NLR ≥4.0, sarcopenia, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥200 ng/mL, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3, number of lesions (≥2), and maximum size of the lesion (≥5 cm) were independent predictors for overall survival (OS) (P < 0.05). The calibration curve shows that the predicted results agree well with the observed results. The time-dependent areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for OS at 1, 2, and 3 years predicted by the nomogram were 0.818/0.827, 0.742/0.823, and 0.748/0.836 in both training and validation cohorts. Nomogram can divide patients into low-, medium- and high-risk groups based on predictor factors. The C-indexes of the nomogram for OS were 0.782/0.728 in the training and validation cohorts, outperforming other currently available models.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram based on NLR and sarcopenia may be useful to predict the prognosis of HCC patients who underwent TACE across BCLC A-C stage patients.

Prediction of bile duct injury after transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: Model establishment and verification

Objective

This study aimed to establish and validate a predictive model for bile duct injury in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 284 patients with HCC treated with DEB-TACE at our hospital between January 2017 and December 2021, of whom 63 patients experienced postoperative bile duct injuries. Univariate and logistic multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for bile duct injury, as well as establish and internally validate the nomogram model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to assess the predictive power, clinical value, and practicability of the nomogram model.

Results

The incidence of bile duct injuries after DEB-TACE was 22.18% (63/284), with one injury occurring in every 2.86 sessions of DEB-TACE treatment. Univariate and logistic multivariate regression analyses indicated that a history of hepatectomy (odds ratio [OR]=2.285; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.066-4.898; P<0.05), subjective angiographic chemoembolization endpoint level (OR=1.832; 95% CI=1.258-2.667; P<0.05), alkaline phosphatase (OR=1.005; 95% CI=1.001-1.010; P<0.05), and platelet count (OR=1.005; 95% CI=1.001-1.009; P<0.05) were independent risk factors for bile duct injury after DEB-TACE among patients with HCC. The risk nomogram model based on the above four variables was validated using the bootstrap method, showing consistency between the predicted and experimental values. Furthermore, the model performed well in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (²=3.648; P=0.887). The AUC of this model was 0.749 (95% CI=0.682-0.817), with an overall accuracy of 69.01%, a positive predictive value of 73.02%, a negative predictive value of 67.87%, a sensitivity of 73.0%, and a specificity of 67.90%, suggesting that the nomogram model had good accuracy and discrimination. In addition, DCA and CIC revealed a high clinical value and practicability of the model.

Conclusion

Bile duct injury in patients with HCC treated with DEB-TACE is caused by multiple factors rather than a single factor. The nomogram prediction model used in this study had a good fitting degree and prediction efficacy, with high clinical value and practicability.

CT Radiomics to Predict Macrotrabecular-Massive Subtype and Immune Status in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background Macrotrabecular-massive (MTM) subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive variant associated with angiogenesis and immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment, which is expected to be noninvasively identified using radiomics approaches. Purpose To construct a CT radiomics model to predict the MTM subtype and to investigate the underlying immune infiltration patterns. Materials and Methods This study included five retrospective data sets and one prospective data set from three academic medical centers between January 2015 and December 2021. The preoperative liver contrast-enhanced CT studies of 365 adult patients with resected HCC were evaluated. The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University provided the training set and internal test set, while Yueyang Central Hospital and Hunan Cancer Hospital provided the external test sets. Radiomic features were extracted and used to develop a radiomics model with machine learning in the training set, and the performance was verified in the two test sets. The outcomes cohort, including 58 adult patients with advanced HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization and antiangiogenic therapy, was used to evaluate the predictive value of the radiomics model for progression-free survival (PFS). Bulk RNA sequencing of tumors from 41 patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and single-cell RNA sequencing from seven prospectively enrolled participants were used to investigate the radiomics-related immune infiltration patterns. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the radiomics model was calculated, and Cox proportional regression was performed to identify predictors of PFS. Results Among 365 patients (mean age, 55 years ± 10 [SD]; 319 men) used for radiomics modeling, 122 (33%) were confirmed to have the MTM subtype. The radiomics model included 11 radiomic features and showed good performance for predicting the MTM subtype, with AUCs of 0.84, 0.80, and 0.74 in the training set, internal test set, and external test set, respectively. A low radiomics model score relative to the median value in the outcomes cohort was independently associated with PFS (hazard ratio, 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8; P = .01). The radiomics model was associated with dysregulated humoral immunity involving B-cell infiltration and immunoglobulin synthesis. Conclusion Accurate prediction of the macrotrabecular-massive subtype in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma was achieved using a CT radiomics model, which was also associated with defective humoral immunity. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license. Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Yoon and Kim in this issue.

Postoperative outcomes and recurrence patterns of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma dictated by the sum of tumor size and number

BACKGROUND

The selection criteria for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who would truly benefit from liver resection (LR) remain undefined.

AIM

To identify BCLC-B HCC patients more suitable for LR.

METHODS

We included patients undergoing curative LR for BCLC stage A or B multi-nodular HCC (MNHCC) and stratified BCLC-B patients by the sum of tumor size and number (N + S). Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), recur-rence-to-death survival (RTDS), recurrence patterns, and treatments after recurrence in BCLC-B patients in each subgroup were compared with those in BCLC-A patients.

RESULTS

In total, 143 patients who underwent curative LR for MNHCC with BCLC-A (n = 25) or BCLC-B (n = 118) were retrospectively analyzed. According to the N + S, patients with BCLC-B HCC were divided into two subgroups: BCLC-B1 (N + S ≤ 10, n = 83) and BCLC-B2 (N + S > 10, n = 35). Compared with BCLC-B2 patients, those with BCLC-B1 had a better OS (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 33.6%; P < 0.001), which was comparable to that in BCLC-A patients (5-year OS rate: 67.4% vs 74.1%; P = 0.250), and a better RFS (median RFS: 19 mo vs 7 mo; P < 0.001), which was worse than that in BCLC-A patients (median RFS: 19 mo vs 48 mo; P = 0.022). Further analysis of patients who developed recurrence showed that both BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients had better RTDS (median RTDS: Not reached vs 49 mo; P = 0.599), while the RTDS in BCLC-B2 patients was worse (median RTDS: 16 mo vs not reached, P < 0.001; 16 mo vs 49 mo, P = 0.042). The recurrence patterns were similar between BCLC-B1 and BCLC-A patients, but BCLC-B2 patients had a shorter recurrence time and a higher proportion of patients had recurrence with macrovascular invasion and/or extrahepatic metastasis, both of which were independent risk factors for RTDS.

CONCLUSION

BCLC-B HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy with N + S ≤ 10 had mild recurrence patterns and excellent OS similar to those in BCLC-A MNHCC patients, and LR should be considered in these patients.