Reply to: "Systemic inflammation and disorders of hemostasis in the AD-ACLF syndrome"

Toward a more precise prognostic stratification in acute decompensation of cirrhosis: The Padua model 2.0

BACKGROUND

The clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD) is heterogeneous. Presepsin (PSP) is a plasmatic biomarker that reflects Toll-like receptor activity and systemic inflammation. We conducted a prospective study to: (1) measure PSP in AD and (2) assess whether PSP in AD can predict the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

Patients with AD were prospectively recruited at admission and underwent determination of PSP. In study part 1, we compared PSP in AD versus controls (stable decompensated and compensated cirrhosis). In study part 2, we prospectively followed patients with AD for 1 year and evaluated predictors of ACLF.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventy three patients with AD were included (median MELD: 18; CLIF-C AD score: 54). Compared with controls, patients with AD had higher levels of PSP (674 ng/L vs. 310 ng/L vs. 157 ng/L; p < 0.001). In patients with AD, Child-Pugh C and acute kidney injury were associated with higher levels of PSP. During the follow-up, 52 patients developed ACLF (median time from recruitment: 66 days). PSP, CLIF-C AD score, and Child-Pugh stage were independently associated with ACLF. A predictive model combining these variables (Padua model 2.0) accurately identified patients at higher risk of ACLF (AUROC 0.864; 95% CI 0.780-0.947; sensitivity 82.9%, specificity 76.7%). In patients at lower risk of ACLF based on a CLIF-C AD <50, a PSP >674 ng/L could discriminate between two groups at significantly different risk of ACLF. Finally, in patients who did not develop ACLF, baseline PSP was significantly higher in those who progressed toward unstable versus stable decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The Padua model 2.0 can be used to identify patients with AD at high risk of ACLF. If these results are validated by external cohorts, PSP could become a new biomarker to improve risk stratification in AD.

Severity of systemic inflammation is the main predictor of ACLF and bleeding in individuals with acutely decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hypercoagulability and hypofibrinolysis in acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD) may be implicated in disease progression and haemostatic complications. We conducted a prospective study to: (1) characterise haemostatic alterations in AD; (2) evaluate whether such alterations can predict acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and bleeding/thrombosis.

METHODS

Hospitalised individuals with AD were prospectively recruited and underwent an extensive haemostatic profiling including coagulation factors, thrombomodulin-modified thrombin generation assay with evaluation of endogenous thrombin potential (ETP; marker for plasmatic hypercoagulability), fibrinolytic factors, and plasmin-antiplasmin complex (fibrinolysis activation marker). Inflammation severity was assessed by C-reactive protein (CRP). In part 1 of the study, we compared haemostasis in AD vs. controls (stable decompensated and compensated cirrhosis). In part 2 of the study, we prospectively followed individuals with AD for 1 year and investigated predictors of ACLF and bleeding/thrombosis.

RESULTS

A total of 169 individuals with AD were recruited (median model for end-stage liver disease score 20; CLIF-C AD 54). Compared with controls, AD was associated with more pronounced hypercoagulability (ETP: 871 vs. 750 vs. 605 nmol/L per min; p <0.0001), without differences in fibrinolysis activation. During follow-up, 55 individuals developed ACLF. CLIF-C AD, CRP, and Child-Pugh were independently associated with ACLF. A predictive model combining these variables (Padua model) accurately identified individuals at higher risk of ACLF (AUROC 0.857; 95% CI 0.798-0.915; sensitivity 74.5%, specificity 83.3%). Notably, CRP and progression to ACLF, but not baseline coagulopathy, were associated with bleeding (n = 11); CRP and antifibrinolytic factor PAI-1 >50 ng/ml were associated with thrombosis (n = 14). The prognostic value of the Padua model was validated in an independent, bicentric European cohort (N = 301).

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammation severity, and not coagulopathy, is the most important predictor of ACLF and bleeding in AD. The Padua model can be used to identify individuals with AD at risk of ACLF.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

A better understanding of haemostasis in individuals with acutely decompensated cirrhosis may help to identify those at higher risk of progression and complications. In this prospective study, we found no significant association between alterations of haemostasis and cirrhosis progression, indicating that the assessment of haemostatic alterations is not useful to identify those at risk. However, we found that C-reactive protein (a simple blood test that reflects severity of inflammation) and severity of chronic liver disease itself (as assessed by specific scores) were associated with cirrhosis progression and development of bleeding complications. Therefore, we developed a simple predictive model - based on C-reactive protein and liver disease scores - that, if validated by independent studies, could be used in clinical practice to assist physicians in identifying individuals with decompensated cirrhosis at higher risk of disease progression and death (i.e. in whom to consider an expedited evaluation for liver transplantation).