The influence of hospital antimicrobial use on carbapenem-non-susceptible Enterobacterales incidence rates according to their mechanism of resistance: a time-series analysis

Ceftazidime with avibactam for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model

Background

To limit the use of antimicrobials without disincentivising the development of novel antimicrobials, there is interest in establishing innovative models that fund antimicrobials based on an evaluation of their value as opposed to the volumes used. The aim of this project was to evaluate the population-level health benefit of ceftazidime-avibactam in the NHS in England, for the treatment of severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections when used within its licensed indications. The results were used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance in support of commercial discussions regarding contract value between the manufacturer and NHS England.

Methods

The health benefit of ceftazidime-avibactam was first derived for a series of high-value clinical scenarios. These represented uses that were expected to have a significant impact on patients' mortality risks and health-related quality of life. Patient-level costs and health-related quality of life of ceftazidime-avibactam under various usage scenarios compared with alternative management strategies in the high-value clinical scenarios were quantified using decision modelling. Results were reported as incremental net health effects expressed in quality-adjusted life-years, which were scaled to 20-year population in quality-adjusted life-years using infection number forecasts based on data from Public Health England. The outcomes estimated for the high-value clinical scenarios were extrapolated to other expected uses for ceftazidime-avibactam.

Results

The clinical effectiveness of ceftazidime-avibactam relative to its comparators was estimated by synthesising evidence on susceptibility of the pathogens of interest to the antimicrobials in a network meta-analysis. In the base case, ceftazidime-avibactam was associated with a statistically significantly higher susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 7.24, 95% credible interval 2.58 to 20.94). The remainder of the treatments were associated with lower susceptibility than colistin (odds ratio < 1). The results were sensitive to the definition of resistance and the studies included in the analysis. In the base case, patient-level benefit of ceftazidime-avibactam was between 0.08 and 0.16 quality-adjusted life-years, depending on the site of infection and the usage scenario. There was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the benefits of ceftazidime-avibactam across all subgroups, and the results were sensitive to assumptions in the meta-analysis used to estimate susceptibility. There was substantial uncertainty in the number of infections that are suitable for treatment with ceftazidime-avibactam, so population-level results are presented for a range of scenarios for the current infection numbers, the expected increases in infections over time, and rates of emergence of resistance. The population-level benefit varied substantially across the scenarios, from 531 to 2342 quality-adjusted life-years over 20 years.

Conclusion

This work has provided quantitative estimates of the value of ceftazidime-avibactam within its areas of expected usage within the NHS.

Limitations

Given existing evidence, the estimates of the value of ceftazidime-avibactam are highly uncertain.

Future work

Future evaluations of antimicrobials would benefit from improvements to NHS data linkages, research to support appropriate synthesis of susceptibility studies, and application of routine data and decision modelling to assess enablement value.

Study registration

No registration of this study was undertaken.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135592), conducted through the Policy Research Unit in Economic Methods of Evaluation in Health and Social Care Interventions, PR-PRU-1217-20401, and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 73. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Cefiderocol for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model

Background

To limit the use of antimicrobials without disincentivising the development of novel antimicrobials, there is interest in establishing innovative models that fund antimicrobials based on an evaluation of their value as opposed to the volumes used. The aim of this project was to evaluate the population-level health benefit of cefiderocol in the NHS in England, for the treatment of severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections when used within its licensed indications. The results were used to inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance in support of commercial discussions regarding contract value between the manufacturer and NHS England.

Methods

The health benefit of cefiderocol was first derived for a series of high-value clinical scenarios. These represented uses that were expected to have a significant impact on patients' mortality risks and health-related quality of life. The clinical effectiveness of cefiderocol relative to its comparators was estimated by synthesising evidence on susceptibility of the pathogens of interest to the antimicrobials in a network meta-analysis. Patient-level costs and health outcomes of cefiderocol under various usage scenarios compared with alternative management strategies were quantified using decision modelling. Results were reported as incremental net health effects expressed in quality-adjusted life-years, which were scaled to 20-year population values using infection number forecasts based on data from Public Health England. The outcomes estimated for the high-value clinical scenarios were extrapolated to other expected uses for cefiderocol.

Results

Among Enterobacterales isolates with the metallo-beta-lactamase resistance mechanism, the base-case network meta-analysis found that cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.32, 95% credible intervals 0.04 to 2.47), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were also associated with lower susceptibility than colistin, but the results were not statistically significant. In the metallo-beta-lactamase Pseudomonas aeruginosa base-case network meta-analysis, cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.44, 95% credible intervals 0.03 to 3.94), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were associated with no susceptibility. In the base case, patient-level benefit of cefiderocol was between 0.02 and 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years, depending on the site of infection, the pathogen and the usage scenario. There was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the benefits of cefiderocol across all subgroups. There was substantial uncertainty in the number of infections that are suitable for treatment with cefiderocol, so population-level results are presented for a range of scenarios for the current infection numbers, the expected increases in infections over time and rates of emergence of resistance. The population-level benefits varied substantially across the base-case scenarios, from 896 to 3559 quality-adjusted life-years over 20 years.

Conclusion

This work has provided quantitative estimates of the value of cefiderocol within its areas of expected usage within the NHS.

Limitations

Given existing evidence, the estimates of the value of cefiderocol are highly uncertain.

Future work

Future evaluations of antimicrobials would benefit from improvements to NHS data linkages; research to support appropriate synthesis of susceptibility studies; and application of routine data and decision modelling to assess enablement value.

Study registration

No registration of this study was undertaken.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Policy Research Programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135591), conducted through the Policy Research Unit in Economic Methods of Evaluation in Health and Social Care Interventions, PR-PRU-1217-20401, and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 28. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Usefulness of dynamic regression time series models for studying the relationship between antimicrobial consumption and bacterial antimicrobial resistance in hospitals: a systematic review

BACKGROUNG

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is on the rise worldwide. Tools such as dynamic regression (DR) models can correlate antimicrobial consumption (AMC) with AMR and predict future trends to help implement antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs).

MAIN BODY

We carried out a systematic review of the literature up to 2023/05/31, searching in PubMed, ScienceDirect and Web of Science. We screened 641 articles and finally included 28 studies using a DR model to study the correlation between AMC and AMR at a hospital scale, published in English or French. Country, bacterial species, type of sampling, antimicrobials, study duration and correlations between AMC and AMR were collected. The use of β-lactams was correlated with cephalosporin resistance, especially in Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterobacterales. Carbapenem consumption was correlated with carbapenem resistance, particularly in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumannii. Fluoroquinolone use was correlated with fluoroquinolone resistance in Gram-negative bacilli and methicillin resistance in Staphylococcus aureus. Multivariate DR models highlited that AMC explained from 19 to 96% of AMR variation, with a lag time between AMC and AMR variation of 2 to 4 months. Few studies have investigated the predictive capacity of DR models, which appear to be limited.

CONCLUSION

Despite their statistical robustness, DR models are not widely used. They confirmed the important role of fluoroquinolones, cephalosporins and carbapenems in the emergence of AMR. However, further studies are needed to assess their predictive capacity and usefulness for ASPs.

Correlation between Antimicrobial Resistance and the Hospital-Wide Diverse Use of Broad-Spectrum Antibiotics by the Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in Japan

Increased antibiotic use and antibiotic homogeneity cause selective pressure. This study investigated the correlation between antibiotic diversity and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Gram-negative organisms. The days of therapy/100 patient-days (DOT) for four broad-spectrum antibiotic classes were evaluated for 2015-2022. The antibiotic heterogeneity index (AHI) for the equal use of four classes (25%) and the modified AHI for the equal use of three classes (30%), excluding fluoroquinolones (10%), were measured (target: 1.0). Quarterly antibiotic use markers and the resistance rates against ≥2 anti-Pseudomonas antibiotics were compared. The DOT value was 9.94, and the relative DOT were 34.8% for carbapenems, 32.1% for piperacillin/tazobactam, 24.3% for fourth generation cephalosporins/ceftazidime/aztreonam, and 8.9% for fluoroquinolones. Although no correlation was found between the total DOT and the resistance rate for any bacterium, a significant negative correlation was found between the heterogeneity indices and resistance rates for Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Klebsiella pneumoniae. The significant cutoffs that discriminate the risk of resistance were 0.756 for the AHI and 0.889 for the modified AHI for K. pneumoniae. Antibiotic diversity is more important in preventing AMR than overall antibiotic use. The ideal ratio of broad-spectrum antibiotics should be studied for diversified use to prevent AMR.

Risk factors and outcomes associated with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium and ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis bacteraemia: A 10-year study in a tertiary-care centre in Mexico City

OBJECTIVES

We sought to identify risk factors associated with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VRE) and ampicillin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis (ARE) bacteraemia, predictors of 30-day mortality, and 90-day recurrence-free survival according to resistance.

METHODS

We evaluated clinical records of patients with E. faecalis and E. faecium bacteraemia (2007-2017). We performed bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with VRE and ARE bacteraemia and predictors of 30-day mortality. A Kaplan-Meier estimate of 90-day recurrence-free survival was done.

RESULTS

We identified 192 and 147 E. faecium and E. faecalis bacteraemia episodes, respectively, of which 55.7% of E. faecium were VRE (94% vanA) and 12.2% of E. faecalis were ARE. Factors related to VRE bacteraemia were previous hospitalisation (aOR, 80.18, 95% CI 1.81-634), history of central venous catheter (aOR, 11.15, 95% CI 2.48-50.2) and endotracheal cannula use (aOR, 17.91, 95% CI 1.22-262.82). There was higher attributable mortality to VRE (28%, 95% CI 14-68%; P < 0.001) and ARE (10%, 95% CI 0.1-36%; P = 0.58) compared with their susceptible counterparts. APACHE II (aOR, 1.45, 95% CI 1.26-1.66) and history of chemotherapy (aOR, 3.52, 95% CI 1.09-11.39) were predictors of E. faecium bacteraemia 30-day mortality. We could not recognise any factor related to ARE bacteraemia or E. faecalis 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

History of hospitalisation and invasive device use were related to VRE bacteraemia. APACHE II and history of chemotherapy were predictors of mortality. We could not identify factors related to ARE or predictors of mortality.