A model-based comparative meta-analysis of the efficacy of dolutegravir-based and efavirenz-based regimens in HIV-infected patients

Effectiveness and Safety of Dolutegravir Versus Efavirenz-Based Antiviral Regimen in People Living With HIV-1 in Sichuan Province of China: A Real-World Study

BACKGROUND

The application time of dolutegravir (DTG) is relatively short, and the treatment experience is insufficient. Therefore, evidence is required to shed more light on the effectiveness and safety issues of DTG in China.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of a DTG vs. efavirenz (EFV) antiviral regimens (the current mainstream regimen).

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study. Data of people with HIV (PWH), who started initial DTG-based or EFV-based antiretroviral therapy at the Chengdu Public Health Clinical Medical Center from January 2018 to October 2020, were collected. Effectiveness indicators such as CD4+ T-cell recovery and HIV viral suppression, and safety indicators, including blood routine, liver and kidney function, and occurrence of abnormal blood lipids after DTG vs. EFV-based antiviral regimen treatments, were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 656 patients were eligible, of which 611 patients were included in the study. Most of the PWHs in our center were young men (86.25%). Nearly one-third of the participants were coinfected with syphilis. The median baseline HIV viral load was 4.70 log10 copies/mL. The median CD4+ T-cell count was 254 cells/mm3. More participants started on EFV-based regimens than DTG-based regimens (82.32% vs. 17.67%). The time to reach the target value (CD4 > 350 cells/mm3) in the DTG group was shorter than that in the EFV group (408 days vs. 522 days), and the percentage of reaching the CD4 target value of the DTG group was higher than that of the EFV group (41.04% vs. 33.76%) in 1 year. The effect of virologic suppression (<50 copies/mL) in the DTG group was superior to that in the EFV group. The use of DTG-containing treatment regimens was significantly related to a quicker virologic suppression (hazard ratio, 1.76; 95% confidence interval of 1.40-2.21, P < 0.0001). The safety data analysis of laboratory indicators showed that there was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A DTG-based regimen may be more conducive to the CD4 recovery than the EFV-based regimen. The virologic suppression of the DTG group may be superior to that of the EFV group. DTG-based regimens might be the preferred treatment option for people with HIV for initial HIV treatment.

Applications of Model-Based Meta-Analysis in Drug Development

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is a quantitative approach that leverages published summary data along with internal data and can be applied to inform key drug development decisions, including the benefit-risk assessment of a treatment under investigation. These risk-benefit assessments may involve determining an optimal dose compared against historic external comparators of a particular disease indication. MBMA can provide a flexible framework for interpreting aggregated data from historic reference studies and therefore should be a standard tool for the model-informed drug development (MIDD) framework.In addition to pairwise and network meta-analyses, MBMA provides further contributions in the quantitative approaches with its ability to incorporate longitudinal data and the pharmacologic concept of dose-response relationship, as well as to combine individual- and summary-level data and routinely incorporate covariates in the analysis.A common application of MBMA is the selection of optimal dose and dosing regimen of the internal investigational molecule to evaluate external benchmarking and to support comparator selection. Two case studies provided examples in applications of MBMA in biologics (durvalumab + tremelimumab for safety) and small molecule (fenebrutinib for efficacy) to support drug development decision-making in two different but well-studied disease areas, i.e., oncology and rheumatoid arthritis, respectively.Important to the future directions of MBMA include additional recognition and engagement from drug development stakeholders for the MBMA approach, stronger collaboration between pharmacometrics and statistics, expanded data access, and the use of machine learning for database building. Timely, cost-effective, and successful application of MBMA should be part of providing an integrated view of MIDD.

The value of adherence information during clinical pharmaceutical trials

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The quality of the evidence used to evaluate a drug's safety and efficacy depends, in part, on how well participants adhere to the prescribed drug-taking regime. There are multiple approaches to measure adherence in clinical trials, varying in their cost and accuracy. We demonstrate a method for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of common adherence monitoring methods, considering the costs and data quality for drugs that differ in how forgiving they are of nonadherence.

METHODS

We propose a simulation approach to estimate the value of evidence about adherence, considering both costs of collection and potential errors in interpreting clinical trial results. We demonstrate the approach with a simulated clinical trial of nitrendipine, a common calcium channel blocker. We consider two trial designs, one using pretrial adherence to "enrich" the trial sample and one without an enrichment strategy. We use scenarios combining high and low values of two key properties of a clinical trial: participant adherence and drug forgiveness.

RESULTS

Under the conditions of these simulations, the most cost-effective adherence monitoring approach depends on both trial participant adherence and drug forgiveness. For example, the enrichment strategy is not cost-effective for the base scenario (high forgiveness and high adherence), but is for other scenarios. We also estimate the effects of evaluable patient analysis, a controversial procedure that excludes nonadherent participants from the analyses, after a trial is completed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed approach can guide drug regulators and developers in designing efficient clinical trials and assessing the impact of nonadherence on trial results. It can identify cost-effective adherence-monitoring methods, given available knowledge about the methods, drug, and patients' expected adherence.

Quantitative efficacy of L-carnitine supplementation on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the quantitative efficacy of L-carnitine supplementation on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients using model-based meta-analysis (MBMA).

METHODS

Literatures were retrieved from the public database and data from these trials were extracted. The quantitative efficacy of L-carnitine on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients were evaluated by maximal effect (E_max) models with nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NONMEM).

RESULTS

In the model of FPG, E_max and _treatment duration to reach half of the maximal effects (ET₅₀) were -9.8% and 36.1 weeks, respectively. In the model of HbA1c, E_max and ET₅₀ were -19.6% and 106 weeks, respectively. In addition, the durations for achieving 25%, 50%, 75%, 80%, and 90% E_max of L-carnitine on FPG were 13, 36.1, 118, 160, and 390 weeks, respectively. The durations for achieving 25%, 50%, 75%, 80%, and 90% E_max of L-carnitine on HbA1c were 38, 106, 334, 449, and 1058 weeks, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

It was the first time to provide valuable quantitative information for efficacy of L-carnitine supplementation on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.