Polygenic Risk Scores Allow Risk Stratification for Keratinocyte Cancer in Organ-Transplant Recipients

A multi-phenotype analysis reveals 19 susceptibility loci for basal cell carcinoma and 15 for squamous cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma are the most common skin cancers, and have genetic overlap with melanoma, pigmentation traits, autoimmune diseases, and blood biochemistry biomarkers. In this multi-trait genetic analysis of over 300,000 participants from Europe, Australia and the United States, we reveal 78 risk loci for basal cell carcinoma (19 previously unknown and replicated) and 69 for squamous cell carcinoma (15 previously unknown and replicated). The previously unknown risk loci are implicated in cancer development and progression (e.g. CDKL1), pigmentation (e.g. TPCN2), cardiometabolic (e.g. FADS2), and immune-regulatory pathways for innate immunity (e.g. IFIH1), and HIV-1 viral load modulation (e.g. CCR5). We also report an optimised polygenic risk score for effective risk stratification for keratinocyte cancer in the Canadian Longitudinal Study of Aging (794 cases and 18139 controls), which could facilitate skin cancer surveillance e.g. in high risk subpopulations such as transplantees.

Polygenic risk score as a determinant of risk of keratinocyte cancer in an Australian population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Keratinocyte cancer (KC) risk is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Genetic risk can be quantified by polygenic risk scores (PRS), which sum the combined effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).

OBJECTIVES

Our objective here was to evaluate the contribution of the summed genetic score to predict the KC risk in the phenotypically well-characterised Nambour population.

METHODS

We used PLINK v1.90 to calculate PRS for 432 cases, 566 controls, using 78 genome-wide independent SNPs that are associated with KC risk. We assessed the association between PRS and KC using logistic regression, stratifying the cohort into 3 risk groups (high 20%, intermediate 60%, low 20%).

RESULTS

The fully adjusted model including traditional risk factors (phenotypic and sun exposure-related), showed a significant 50% increase in odds of KC per standard deviation of PRS (odds ratio (OR) =1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.30-1.76, P=5.75 × 10^-8 ). Those in the top 20% PRS had over three times the risk of KC of those in the lowest 20% (OR=3.45; 95% CI=2.18-5.50, P=1.5×10^-7 ) and higher absolute risk of KC per 100 person-years of 2.96 compared with 1.34. Area under the ROC curve increased from 0.72 to 0.74 on adding PRS to the fully adjusted model.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that PRS can enhance the prediction of KC above traditional risk factors.

Basal Cell Carcinoma: Pathology, Current Clinical Treatment, and Potential Use of Lipid Nanoparticles

Skin cancer is the most common type of carcinoma diagnosed worldwide, with significant morbidity and mortality rates among Caucasians, in particular basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The main risk factors of BCC are well-identified, and there are many chemotherapeutic drugs available for its treatment. The effectiveness of therapeutic options is governed by several factors, including the location of the tumor, its size, and the presence of metastases (although rare for BCC). However, available treatments are based on non-targeted approaches, which encounter a significant risk of systemic toxicity in several organs. Site-specific chemotherapy for BCC has been proposed via the loading of anticancer drugs into nanoparticles. Among various types of nanoparticles, in this review, we focus on potential new regimens for the treatment of BCC using classical anticancer drugs loaded into novel lipid nanoparticles. To meet patient aesthetic expectations and enhance the effectiveness of basal cell carcinoma treatment, new therapeutic topical strategies are discussed, despite a limited number of reports available in the literature.

Polygenic Risk Scores Stratify Keratinocyte Cancer Risk among Solid Organ Transplant Recipients with Chronic Immunosuppression in a High Ultraviolet Radiation Environment

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) have elevated risks for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), especially in high UVR environments. We assessed whether polygenic risk scores can improve the prediction of BCC and SCC risks and multiplicity over and above the traditional risk factors in SOTRs in a high UV setting. We built polygenic risk scores for BCC (n = 594,881) and SCC (n = 581,431) using UK Biobank and 23andMe datasets, validated them in the Australian QSkin Sun and Health Study cohort (n > 6,300), and applied them in SOTRs in the skin tumor in allograft recipients cohort from Queensland, Australia, a high UV environment. About half of the SOTRs with a high genetic risk developed BCC (absolute risk = 45.45%, 95% confidence interval = 33.14-58.19%) and SCC (absolute risk = 44.12%, 95% confidence interval = 32.08-56.68%). For both cancers, SOTRs in the top quintile were at >3-fold increased risk relative to those in the bottom quintile. The respective polygenic risk scores improved risk predictions by 2% for BCC (area under the curve = 0.77 vs. 0.75, P = 0.0691) and SCC (area under the curve = 0.84 vs. 0.82, P = 0.0260), over and above the established risk factors, and 19.03% (for BCC) and 18.10% (for SCC) of the SOTRs were reclassified in a high/medium/low risk scenario. The polygenic risk scores also added predictive accuracy for tumor multiplicity (BCC R2 = 0.21 vs. 0.19, P = 3.2 × 10-3; SCC R2 = 0.30 vs. 0.27, P = 4.6 × 10-4).