Predictors of liver failure after transarterial chemoembolization in patients with spontaneously ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective study

Nomogram for Estimation of Acute Liver Failure Risk in Spontaneous Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a severe complication of spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (SRHCC) that requires accurate prediction for effective treatment strategies. We aimed to develop a predictive nomogram to estimate the risk of ALF in patients with SRHCC undergoing treatment.

Patients and Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of historical data from 284 patients diagnosed with SRHCC at the First Hospital of Jilin University over the past decade. Variables were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. We evaluated its predictive accuracy against the Child-Pugh Score, R.MELD, and ALBI by assessing discrimination, calibration, and net clinical benefit.

Results

Among the 284 patients, 65 developed ALF. The risk factors identified for model development included largest tumor size (LTS), platelet counts, prolonged prothrombin time, and elevated serum α-fetoprotein levels. The nomogram exhibited high accuracy in predicting ALF risk with a C-index of 0.91 (0.87-0.95). The Delong test showed a significant difference between the nomogram and the other three models (p<0.05). The calibration curve for the nomogram fit well, and the decision curve analysis revealed superior net benefit. The optimal cut-off point for the nomogram was determined to be 40, yielding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 83.10%, 87.20%, 65.90% and 94.60%, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram we developed provides an optimized tool for predicting ALF in SRHCC patients. Its application can help determine individual patient's risk of ALF, enabling more rational and personalized treatment strategies.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Plus Sorafenib versus Transarterial Chemoembolization Alone for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analyses and Systematic Reviews

Background

Sorafenib is the standard treatment for most cases of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), based on Western and Eastern clinical guidelines. Thus, an increasing number of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus sorafenib combination therapies have been used in clinical practice. In addition, several systematic reviews and meta-analyses have explored the efficacy and safety of the combination of TACE and sorafenib. Therefore, we performed an umbrella review to summarize and evaluate these evidence-based studies.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases were searched up to June 1, 2023. All meta-analyses that evaluated the effect of TACE plus sorafenib on HCC were considered eligible. The quality of the included meta-analyses was evaluated by AMSTAR2 (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews). The quality of evidence per association provided in the meta-analyses was rated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE). This study was registered with PROSPERO (Registration ID: CRD42023420417).

Results

We included 12 meta-analyses, including randomized clinical trials, cohort studies, and observational studies. A total of 44 associations with overall survival, survival rate, time to disease progression, overall response rate, disease control rate, and adverse events were evaluated in this umbrella review. The quality of most associations ranged from low to very low, indicating that flaws were significant in the current meta-analyses.

Conclusion

This umbrella review identified beneficial associations between TACE and sorafenib combination therapy in advanced HCC. However, owing to the low certainty of the evidence, clinicians should interpret our results with caution when applying them in clinical practice, and high-quality studies are required in the future to confirm our results.