Clinical, immunological and genomic analysis of the post vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 infected cases with Delta derivatives from Maharashtra, India, 2021

A comprehensive profile of SARS-CoV-2 variants spreading during the COVID-19 pandemic: a genomic characterization study from Chhattisgarh State, India

SARS-CoV-2 has expressively changed its sequences during the COVID-19 pandemic situation by encompassing persistent evolutionary mutational changes resulting in the emergence of many clades and lineages. Evolution of these SARS-CoV-2 variants have significantly imparted fitness advantage to the virus, enhanced its transmissibility and severity of the disease. These new variants are a potential threat to the vaccine efficacy as well. It is therefore pertinent to monitor the evolution of these variants and their epidemiological and clinical impact, in a geographic setting. This study has thus looked into the geographic distribution and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the evolutionary circulation of different clades in Chhattisgarh (CG) state from March 2020 to July 2023. A total of 3018 sequences were retrieved from the GISAID database, in which 558 were submitted by us. The demographic data revealed male preponderance of 56.45% versus 43.54% females, with the overall mean age of 36.5 years. SARS-CoV-2 sequences represented many variants viz., Delta (55%), Omicron (22%) and others (15%) with a small proportion of recombinant (5%), Kappa (2%), and Alpha (1%). The viral clades G was found predominant for a year from initial days of pandemic in March, 2020 to January, 2021 which then subsequently evoluted to subclade GK (Delta B.1.617.2) and remained in circulation in CG till November, 2021. From December 2021, the GRA (Omicron B.1.1.529) variant had replaced GK to become the dominant strain and continues to predominate in present time. GRA clade is however continuously encompassing new recombinant strains, having various non-synonymous mutations especially in spike protein. The non-synonymous mutation P314L in ORF1b, S84L in ORF8 and D614G in spike protein were found as the pan mutation carried over from clade G to GRA. The continuous evolution in SARS-CoV2 warrants periodical geographic genomic surveillance monitoring to timely detect any new variants having the potential of causing future outbreak.

Reconstructing the COVID-19 incidence in India using airport screening data in Japan

BACKGROUND

A major epidemic of COVID-19 caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) occurred in India from March to July 2021, resulting in 19 million documented cases. Given the limited healthcare and testing capacities, the actual number of infections is likely to have been greater than reported, and several modelling studies and excess mortality research indicate that this epidemic involved substantial morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

To estimate the incidence during this epidemic, we used border entry screening data in Japan to estimate the daily incidence and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 infection in India. Analysing the results of mandatory testing among non-Japanese passengers entering Japan from India, we calculated the prevalence and then backcalculated the incidence in India from February 28 to July 3, 2021.

RESULTS

The estimated number of infections ranged from 448 to 576 million people, indicating that 31.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.1, 37.7) - 40.9% (95% CI: 33.5, 48.4) of the population in India had experienced COVID-19 infection from February 28 to July 3, 2021. In addition to obtaining cumulative incidence that was consistent with published estimates, we showed that the actual incidence of COVID-19 infection during the 2021 epidemic in India was approximately 30 times greater than that based on documented cases, giving a crude infection fatality risk of 0.47%. Adjusting for test-negative certificate before departure, the quality control of which was partly questionable, the cumulative incidence can potentially be up to 2.3-2.6 times greater than abovementioned estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimate of approximately 32-41% cumulative infection risk from February 28 to July 3, 2021 is roughly consistent with other published estimates, and they can potentially be greater, given an exit screening before departure. The present study results suggest the potential utility of border entry screening data to backcalculate the incidence in countries with limited surveillance capacity owing to a major surge in infections.