Global Differences in natural transmission rates of Monkeypox virus

Simulating the impact of optimized prevention and control measures on the transmission of monkeypox in the United States: A model-based study

This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention and control measures. To further assess the impact of public health measures on the transmission of monkeypox, different intervention scenarios were developed based on the classic SEIR model, considering reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, diagnosis delay, and environmental transmission risk, respectively. We evaluated the impact of different measures by simulating their spread in different scenarios. During the simulation period, 8709 people were infected with monkeypox. The simulation analysis showed that: (1) the most effective measures to control monkeypox transmission during the early stage of the epidemic were reducing contact and enhancing vaccination, with cumulative infections at 51.20% and 41.90% of baseline levels, respectively; (2) shortening diagnosis time would delay the peak time of the epidemic by 96 days; and (3) the risk of environmental transmission of monkeypox virus was relatively low. This study indirectly proved the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures, such as reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, shortening diagnosis time, and low risk of environmental transmission, which also provided an important reference and containment experience for nonepidemic countries.

Unexpectedly higher levels of anti-orthopoxvirus neutralizing antibodies are observed among gay men than general adult population

BACKGROUND

The confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Monkeypox are predominantly identified in the networks of men who have sex with men (MSM). The preexisting antibodies may profoundly impact the transmission of monkeypox virus (MPXV), however the current-day prevalence of antibodies against MPXV among gay men is not well characterized.

METHODS

A cohort of gay men (n = 326) and a cohort of the general adult population (n = 295) were enrolled in this study. Binding antibodies responses against MPXV/vaccinia and neutralizing antibody responses against vaccinia virus (Tiantan strain) were measured. The antibody responses of these two cohorts were then compared, as well as the responses of individuals born before and in/after 1981 (when the smallpox vaccination ceased in China). Finally, the correlation between the anti-MPXV antibody responses and the anti-vaccinia antibody responses, and the associations between preexisting anti-orthopoxvirus antibody responses and the diagnosed sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the MSM cohort were analyzed separately.

RESULTS

Our data showed that binding antibodies against MPXV H3, A29, A35, E8, B6, M1 proteins and vaccinia whole-virus lysate could be detected in individuals born both before and in/after 1981, of which the prevalence of anti-vaccinia binding antibodies was significantly higher among individuals born before 1981 in the general population cohort. Moreover, we unexpectedly found that the positive rates of binding antibody responses against MPXV H3, A29, A35, E8 and M1 proteins were significantly lower among individuals of the MSM cohort born in/after 1981, but the positive rates of anti-MPXV B6 and anti-vaccinia neutralizing antibody responses were significantly higher among these individuals compared to those of age-matched participants in the general population cohort. Additionally, we demonstrated that the positive and negative rates of anti-MPXV antibody responses were associated with the anti-vaccinia antibody responses among individuals born before 1981 in the general population cohort, but no significant association was observed among individuals born in/after 1981 in both cohorts. The positive rates of both the binding and the neutralizing antibody responses were comparable between individuals with and without diagnosed STIs in the MSM cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-MPXV and anti-vaccinia antibodies could be readily detected in an MSM cohort and a general population cohort. And a higher level of anti-vaccinia neutralizing antibody responses was observed among individuals who did not get vaccinated against smallpox in the MSM cohort compared to age-matched individuals in the general population cohort.