Case fatality rate for Ebola disease, 1976-2022: A meta-analysis of global data

Molecular determinants of cross-species transmission in emerging viral infections

SUMMARYSeveral examples of high-impact cross-species transmission of newly emerging or re-emerging bat-borne viruses, such as Sudan virus, Nipah virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, have occurred in the past decades. Recent advancements in next-generation sequencing have strengthened ongoing efforts to catalog the global virome, in particular from the multitude of different bat species. However, functional characterization of these novel viruses and virus sequences is typically limited with regard to assessment of their cross-species potential. Our understanding of the intricate interplay between virus and host underlying successful cross-species transmission has focused on the basic mechanisms of entry and replication, as well as the importance of host innate immune responses. In this review, we discuss the various roles of the respective molecular mechanisms underlying cross-species transmission using different recent bat-borne viruses as examples. To delineate the crucial cellular and molecular steps underlying cross-species transmission, we propose a framework of overall characterization to improve our capacity to characterize viruses as benign, of interest, or of concern.

Molecular insights into the Ebola virus life cycle

Ebola virus and other orthoebolaviruses cause severe haemorrhagic fevers in humans, with very high case fatality rates. Their non-segmented single-stranded RNA genome encodes only seven structural proteins and a small number of non-structural proteins to facilitate the virus life cycle. The basics of this life cycle are well established, but recent advances have substantially increased our understanding of its molecular details, including the viral and host factors involved. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of our current knowledge of the molecular details of the orthoebolavirus life cycle, with a special focus on proviral host factors. We discuss the multistep entry process, viral RNA synthesis in specialized phase-separated intracellular compartments called inclusion bodies, the expression of viral proteins and ultimately the assembly of new virus particles and their release at the cell surface. In doing so, we integrate recent studies into the increasingly detailed model that has developed for these fundamental aspects of orthoebolavirus biology.

The basic reproduction number (R0) of ebola virus disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (Ebola) is highly pathogenic, transmissible, and often deadly, with debilitating consequences. Superspreading within a cluster is also possible. In this study, we aim to document Ebola basic reproduction number (R0): the average number of new cases associated with an Ebola case in a completely susceptible population.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science for studies published between 1976 and February 27, 2023. We also manually searched the reference lists of the reviewed studies to identify additional studies. We included studies that reported R0 during Ebola outbreaks in Africa. We excluded studies that reported only the effective reproduction number (Rt). Abstracting data from included studies was performed using a pilot-tested standard form. Two investigators reviewed the studies, extracted the data, and assessed quality. The pooled R0 was determined by a random-effects meta-analysis. R0 was stratified by country. We also estimated the theoretically required immunization coverage to reach herd-immunity using the formula of (1-1/R0) × 100 %.

RESULTS

The search yielded 2042 studies. We included 53 studies from six African countries in the systematic review providing 97 Ebola mean R0 estimates. 27 (with 46 data points) studies were included in the meta-analysis. The overall pooled mean Ebola R0 was 1.95 (95 % CI 1.74-2.15), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 99.99 %; τ2 = 0.38; and p < 0.001) and evidence of small-study effects (Egger's statistics: Z = 4.67; p < 0.001). Mean Ebola R0 values ranged from 1.2 to 10.0 in Nigeria, 1.1 to 7 in Guinea, 1.14 to 8.33 in Sierra Leone, 1.13 to 5 in Liberia, 1.2 to 5.2 in DR Congo, 1.34 to 2.7 in Uganda, and from 1.40 to 2.55 for all West African countries combined. Pooled mean Ebola R0 was 9.38 (95 % CI 4.16-14.59) in Nigeria, 3.31 (95 % CI 2.30-4.32) in DR Congo, 2.0 (95 % CI 1.25-2.76) in Uganda, 1.83 (95 % CI 1.61-2.05) in Liberia, 1.73 (95 % CI 1.47-2.0) in Sierra Leonne, and 1.44 (95 % CI 1.29-1.60) in Guinea. In theory, 50 % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, assuming that Ebola vaccine would be 100 % effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Ebola R0 varies widely across countries. Ebola has a much wider R0 range than is often claimed (1.3-2.0). It is possible for an Ebola index case to infect more than two susceptible individuals.

Ebola incidence and mortality before and during a lockdown: The 2022 epidemic in Uganda

On September 20, 2022, an Ebola Disease (EBOD) outbreak was declared in Mubende district, Central Uganda. Following a rapid surge in the number of cases and mortality, the Government of Uganda imposed a lockdown in the two most affected districts, Mubende and Kassanda. We describe the trends in EBOD incidence and mortality nationally and in the two districts before and during the lockdown and the lessons learned during the epidemic response. We retrieved data from the Ministry of Health situation reports from September 20, 2022, when the EBOD outbreak was declared until November 26, 2022, when the lockdown ended. We graphed trends in EBOD morbidity and mortality during a 3-week and 6-week lockdown, computed the EBOD case fatality rate, and summarized the major lessons learned during the epidemic response. We found case fatality rate during the pre-lockdown, 3-week lockdown, and 6-week lockdown period was 37.9% (22/58), 39.3% (53/135), and 38.7% (55/142), respectively. In the early weeks of the lockdown, EBOD incidence and mortality increased nationally and in Kassanda district while Mubende district registered a decline in incidence and stagnation in mortality. With the extension of the lockdown to six weeks, the EBOD incidence and mortality during the 4-6-week lockdown declined compared to the pre-lockdown period. In conclusion, the EBOD incidence and mortality remained higher in the early weeks of the lockdown than during the pre-lockdown period nationally and in one of the two districts. With extended lockdown, incidence and mortality dropped in the 4-6-week period than the pre-lockdown period. Therefore, reliance on known public health measures to control an EBOD outbreak is important.