Association of proteinuria with incident atrial fibrillation in the general Japanese population

Proteinuria is independently associated with heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

AIMS

Previous studies have shown that proteinuria is independently associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF), and is also associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events such as stroke and thromboembolism in patients with AF. However, the association of proteinuria with heart failure (HF) events in patients with AF remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective study of patients with AF. Of the entire cohort of 4489 patients, 2164 patients had available data of proteinuria. We compared the clinical background and outcomes between patients with proteinuria (n = 606, 28.0%) and those without (n = 1558, 72.0%). Patients with proteinuria were older and had a higher prevalence of major co-morbidities. During the median follow-up of 5.0 years, the incidence rates of HF events (composite of cardiac death or HF hospitalization) were higher in patients with proteinuria than those without (4.1% vs. 2.1% person-year, P < 0.01). Multivariate analyses revealed that proteinuria was an independent risk factor of the incidence of HF events [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-1.74]. This association was consistent among the various subgroups, except for the age subgroup in which there was a significant interaction (P < 0.01) between younger (<75 years) (unadjusted HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.12-4.34) and older (≥75 years) patients (unadjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.23-2.05).

CONCLUSION

Our community-based large prospective cohort suggests that proteinuria is independently associated with the incidence of HF events in Japanese patients with AF.

Association of proteinuria and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the general population: A prospective study of Kailuan study participants

BACKGROUND

Proteinuria is a well-known cardiovascular risk factor, but whether it independently increases the risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) in Chinese population is unknown. To address this deficiency, herein, we investigated the association between proteinuria detected using urine dipstick test and the risk of AF.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of Kailuan study participants who underwent the 2006-2007 and 2010-2011 health checkups and was free from AF. Participants were classified into four groups based on the level of proteinuria: [-, trace (±), 1+, ≥2+]. The outcome was incident AF as confirmed by 12-lead electrocardiography.

RESULTS

During a median of 11.90 years of follow-up, we documented 514 incident AF cases among 60,599 participants. Proteinuria was found in 6302 (10.40%) participants. Relative to participants without proteinuria at the baseline, those with proteinuria (≥2+) had an 83.9% higher risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.073-3.154, p = .0267) of developing AF, after adjusted for confounding variables. The result was consistent in the sensitivity analysis. Compared to consistently negative proteinuria, the risk of AF significantly increased in the aggravated proteinuria group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.552, 95% CI 1.140-2.114) and the persistent proteinuria group (HR 2.485, 95% CI 1.414-4.366). Among participants with resolved proteinuria (from positive to negative), the risk of incident AF was not significantly increased compared to those with persistently negative proteinuria (HR 1.300, 95% CI 0.743-2.276).

CONCLUSIONS

Proteinuria could be a modifiable risk factor for predicting AF development. Knowing the presence of proteinuria may improve risk stratification for decision-making about AF prevention.

Characterization of baseline clinical factors associated with incident worsening kidney function in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: the Hokuriku-Plus AF Registry

Evidence suggests that atrial fibrillation (AF) could increase the risk of worsening kidney function (WKF) which is linked to an increased risk of stroke, bleeding, and death in AF patients. However, limited data exist regarding the factors that could lead to WKF in these patients. Therefore, we sought to identify the potential factors associated with the development of WKF in patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF). We analyzed prospectively recruited 1122 NVAF patients [men 71.9%, median age 73.0 years (interquartile range: 66.0-79.0)] with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 15 mL/min/1.73 m² from the Hokuriku-Plus AF Registry. The primary outcome was incident WKF, defined as the %eGFR change from the baseline ≥ 30% during the follow-up period. We evaluated the association between baseline variables and incident WKF using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. We also evaluated the non-linear association between the identified factors and incident WKF. During a median follow-up period of 3.0 years (interquartile range: 2.7-3.3), incident WKF was observed in 108 patients (32.6 per 1000 person-years). Compared to the patients without incident WKF, the patients with incident WKF were older and had a higher prevalence of heart failure (HF), diabetes mellitus (DM), and vascular disease at baseline. Those who experienced incident WKF also had higher diastolic blood pressure, lower hemoglobin, lower eGFR, higher B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and used warfarin more frequently. Upon multivariate analysis, age ≥ 75 years, HF, DM, and anemia were independently associated with incident WKF. Additionally, age and hemoglobin were linearly associated with the risk of incident WKF, whereas a J- or U-shaped association was observed for HbA1c and BNP. Age ≥ 75 years, HF, DM, and anemia were associated with the development of WKF in Japanese patients with NVAF. In patients with these risk factors, a careful monitoring of the kidney function and appropriate interventions may be important when possible.

Explainable Machine Learning for Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population Using a Generalized Additive Model ― A Cross-Sectional Study ―

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and is associated with increased thromboembolic stroke risk and heart failure. Although various prediction models for AF risk have been developed using machine learning, their output cannot be accurately explained to doctors and patients. Therefore, we developed an explainable model with high interpretability and accuracy accounting for the non-linear effects of clinical characteristics on AF incidence.

Methods and Results: Of the 489,073 residents who underwent specific health checkups between 2009 and 2018 and were registered in the Kanazawa Medical Association database, data were used for 5,378 subjects with AF and 167,950 subjects with normal electrocardiogram readings. Forty-seven clinical parameters were combined using a generalized additive model algorithm. We validated the model and found that the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.964, 0.879, and 0.920, respectively. The 9 most important variables were the physical examination of arrhythmia, a medical history of coronary artery disease, age, hematocrit, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, creatinine, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and HbA1c. Further, non-linear relationships of clinical variables to the probability of AF diagnosis were visualized.

Conclusions: We established a novel AF risk explanation model with high interpretability and accuracy accounting for non-linear information obtained at general health checkups. This model contributes not only to more accurate AF risk prediction, but also to a greater understanding of the effects of each characteristic.

Association of Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms Based on the International Prostate Symptom Score and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Because it is unclear whether lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Japanese population, we explored the association in general Japanese men aged 55-75 years.Methods and Results:The cross-sectional study included male participants who had both national health checkup data and the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) in the same calendar year between 2009 and 2017. LUTS severity was evaluated by IPSS. A robust Poisson regression model was used to assess the association between LUTS severity and the composite CVD outcome [coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, or atrial fibrillation (AF)] and each component of the composite outcome. Prevalence ratio (PR) was adjusted for conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Of 16,781 male participants (mean age, 67±5 years), mild LUTS were observed in 9,243 (55.1%); moderate, 6,445 (38.4%); and severe, 1,093 (6.5%). Compared with the mild LUTS group, moderate LUTS [PR 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.25, P<0.001] and severe LUTS (PR 1.38, 95% CI 1.24-1.53, P<0.001) were significantly associated with a higher prevalence of CVD. LUTS severity was associated with higher prevalence of CAD and stroke, but not AF.

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of LUTS was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD, especially CAD and stroke, independent of conventional CVD risk factors.

First-degree atrioventricular block is significantly associated with incident atrial fibrillation in the population predominantly including participants aged ≥ 60 years

Some previous studies demonstrated that first-degree atrioventricular block (f-AVB) was associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), while evidence is scarce regarding the association between f-AVB and incident AF in older populations. Therefore, we sought to investigate the association of f-AVB with incident AF in the population predominantly including participants aged ≥ 60 years. Eligible participants were residents in Kanazawa City, Japan aged ≥ 40 years who underwent 12-lead ECG at the National Japanese Health Check-up in 2013. Participants with AF detected at the baseline exam and those without adequate follow-up were excluded. f-AVB was defined as PR interval ≥ 220 ms based on the Minnesota code (6-3). The cumulative incidence of AF was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curve analysis, and statistical significance was evaluated by the Log-rank test. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were computed by Cox proportional hazard models. HRs were adjusted for conventional risk factors for AF. 37,730 participants (mean age, 72.3 ± 9.6 years; male, 37%) were included. Baseline f-AVB was observed in 667 (1.8%) participants. During the median follow-up period of 5 years (interquartile range, 4.0-5.0 years), 691 cases of incident AF were observed. A 5-year cumulative incidence of AF was significantly higher in f-AVB (+) group compared with f-AVB (-) group (6.8% vs 2.1%, p < 0.01). In the fully adjusted model, f-AVB was significantly associated with incident AF (HR, 1.75; 95% confidence interval 1.25-2.45; p value < 0.01). f-AVB was independently associated with incident AF in the population predominantly including participants aged ≥ 60 years.