Ground reality versus model-based computation of basic reproductive numbers in epidemics

Low Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among Healthcare Workers in Malaysia during the Third COVID-19 Wave: Prospective Study with Literature Survey on Infection Prevention and Control Measures

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at greater risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. This serology surveillance study aimed to investigate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among the HCWs who were asymptomatic during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia. HCWs from the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Health Campus were prospectively recruited between August 2020 and March 2021 on a voluntary basis. Data on socio-demographics, possible risk factors and travel history were recorded. Serological diagnoses from serum samples were examined for total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using an immunoassay kit. A literature survey was performed on the compliance with infection and prevention control (IPC) practices for COVID-19 among HCWs. The majority of the total 617 HCWs participating in this study were nurses (64.3%, n = 397), followed by health attendants (20.9%, n = 129), medical doctors (9.6%, n = 59) and others (6.3%, n = 39). Of those, 28.2% (n = 174) claimed to have exposure to COVID-19 cases, including history of close contact and casual contact with infected patients. Most importantly, all serum samples were found to be non-reactive to SARS-CoV-2, although nearly half (40.0%, n = 246) of the HCWs had been involved directly in the management of acute respiratory illness cases. A proportion of 12.7% (n = 78) of the HCWs reported having underlying health problems, such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension and hyperlipidemia. Despite the presence of medical and sociological risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections, the current study found zero prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among the HCWs of USM. Based on the literature survey, the vast majority of Malaysian HCWs demonstrated good IPC practices during the pandemic (average percentage ranged between 92.2% and 99.8%). High compliance with IPC measures may have led to the low seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among the HCWs.

Estimation of Underreported Cases of Infections and Deaths from COVID-19 for Countries with Limited and Scarce Data: Examples from Nepal

COVID-19 pandemic has overburdened the public healthcare system around the world. Further, lockdown imposed to curb the spread of pandemic has shown to have an adverse effect on economic and health status of an individual. It has also compelled us to switch from the physical world to virtual world, thus depriving us of benefits of person-to-person direct contact. People from developing countries are specially affected. An average person here lacks basic skills needed to survive in the digital world. Due to limited COVID-19 testing capacities in such countries, there is also less testing. Less testing means less contact tracing, underreported cases, and rapid spread of disease. In this paper, the underreported cases of daily infections and daily deaths are predicted using mathematical models. This is based on daily data published by the Government of Nepal. Here, Kathmandu valley is taken as a model area for estimation of underreporting. The behavior of probability of infection, probability of recovery, and probability of deaths is also mathematically analyzed. A time-dependent susceptible infected and recovered model is also proposed. Here, the second wave of COVID-19 is analyzed in detail from 1 Feb 2021 to 1 June 2021. The effect of lockdown on the psychology of people is also modeled with principal components analysis. The inherent and latent factors affecting the people in lockdown are identified. This is based on detailed primary data collected from a survey of 277 households.