Spatial modelling of congruence of native biodiversity and potential hotspots of forest invasive species (FIS) in central Indian landscape

Quantifying the landscape changes within and outside the Dachigam National Park, Kashmir Himalaya, India using observations and models

Protected areas are the cornerstone of biodiversity and serve as a haven for biodiversity conservation. However, due to immense anthropic pressures and ongoing changes in climate, the protected reserves are under immense threat. Human interference through land system changes is a major precusor of fragmentation of landscapes resulting in the decline of Himalayan biodiversity. In this context, this research assessed land use land cover changes (LULCCs) and fragmentation within and outside the Dachigam National Park (DNP) using remote sensing data, GIS-based models and ground truth over the past 55 years (1965-2020). Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFT) helped to compute edge effect, patchiness, perforation and core areas. The Land Change Modeller (LCM) of IDRISI TerrSet was used for simulating the future LULC for the years 2030, 2050, 2700 and 2100. The analysis of LULCCs showed that built-up and aquatic vegetation expanded by 326% and 174%, respectively in the vicinity of the DNP. The area under agriculture, scrub and pasture decreased primarily due to intensified land use activities. Within the DNP, the area under forest cover declined by 7%. A substantial decrease was observed in the core zone both within (39%) and outside (30%) the DNP indicative of fragmentation of natural habitats. LCM analysis projected 10% increase in the built-up extents besides forests, shrublands and pastures. This knowledge generated in this study shall form an important baseline for understanding and characterising the human-wildlife relationship, initiating long-term ecological research (LTER) on naturally vegetated and aquatic ecosystems (primarily Dal Lake) of the region.

Assessing threats of non-native species to native freshwater biodiversity: Conservation priorities for the United States

Non-native species pose one of the greatest threats to native biodiversity, and can have severe negative impacts in freshwater ecosystems. Identifying regions of spatial overlap between high freshwater biodiversity and high invasion pressure may thus better inform the prioritization of freshwater conservation efforts. We employ geospatial analysis of species distribution data to investigate the potential threat of non-native species to aquatic animal taxa across the continental United States. We mapped non-native aquatic plant and animal species richness and cumulative invasion pressure to estimate overall negative impact associated with species introductions. These distributions were compared to distributions of native aquatic animal taxa derived from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) database. To identify hotspots of native biodiversity we mapped total species richness, number of threatened and endangered species, and a community index of species rarity calculated at the watershed scale. An overall priority index allowed identification of watersheds experiencing high pressure from non-native species and also exhibiting high native biodiversity conservation value. While priority regions are roughly consistent with previously reported prioritization maps for the US, we also recognize novel priority areas characterized by moderate-to-high native diversity but extremely high invasion pressure. We further compared priority areas with existing conservation protections as well as projected future threats associated with land use change. Our findings suggest that many regions of elevated freshwater biodiversity value are compromised by high invasion pressure, and are poorly safeguarded by existing conservation mechanisms and are likely to experience significant additional stresses in the future.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum. This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum.