Rewilding as a restoration strategy for lowland agricultural landscapes: Stakeholder-assisted multi-criteria analysis in Dorset, UK

Quantifying the value of on-farm measurements to inform the selection of key performance indicators for livestock production systems

The use of key performance indicators (KPIs) to assist on-farm decision making has long been seen as a promising strategy to improve operational efficiency of agriculture. The potential benefit of KPIs, however, is heavily dependent on the economic relevance of the metrics used, and an overabundance of ambiguously defined KPIs in the livestock industry has disincentivised many farmers to collect information beyond a minimum requirement. Using high-resolution sheep production data from the North Wyke Farm Platform, a system-scale grazing trial in southwest United Kingdom, this paper proposes a novel framework to quantify the information values of industry recommended KPIs, with the ultimate aim of compiling a list of variables to measure and not to measure. The results demonstrated a substantial financial benefit associated with a careful selection of metrics, with top-ranked variables exhibiting up to 3.5 times the information value of those randomly chosen. When individual metrics were used in isolation, ewe weight at lambing had the greatest ability to predict the subsequent lamb value at slaughter, surpassing all mid-season measures representing the lamb's own performance. When information from multiple metrics was combined to inform on-farm decisions, the peak benefit was observed under four metrics, with inclusion of variables beyond this point shown to be detrimental to farm profitability regardless of the combination selected. The framework developed herein is readily extendable to other livestock species, and with minimal modifications to arable and mixed agriculture as well.

Ecological restoration of agricultural land can improve its contribution to economic development

Given the negative environmental impacts of intensive agriculture, there is an urgent need to reduce the impact of food production on biodiversity. Ecological restoration of farmland could potentially contribute to this goal. While the positive impacts of ecological restoration on biodiversity are well established, less evidence is available regarding impacts on economic development and employment. Potentially, prospects for economic development could be enhanced by ecological restoration though increased provision of ecosystem services, on which some economic activity depends. Here we examined this issue through the development of contrasting land use scenarios for the county of Dorset, southern England. Two scenarios of future agricultural expansion were compared with two scenarios of landscape-scale ecological restoration and the current situation. Impacts on provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) were explored using InVEST models and proxy values for different land cover types. Impacts on economic employment were examined using an economic input-output model, which was adjusted for variation in ES flows using empirically determined ES dependency values for different economic sectors. Using the unadjusted input-output model, the scenarios had only a slight economic impact (≤ 0.3% Gross Value Added, GVA). Conversely, when the input-output model was adjusted to take account of ES flows, GVA increased by up to 5.4% in the restoration scenarios, whereas under the scenario with greatest agricultural expansion, GVA was reduced by -4.5%. Similarly, employment increased by up to 6.7% following restoration, compared to declines of up to -5.6% following maximum agricultural expansion. These results show that the economic contribution of rural land is far greater than that attributable to agricultural production alone. Landscape-scale restoration of agricultural land can potentially increase the contribution of farmland to economic development and employment, by increasing flows of multiple ES to the many economic sectors that depend on them.

The Return of Wooded Landscapes in Wales: An Exploration of Possible Post-Brexit Futures

Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact, even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.