Predictors of long-term survival after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in southern Portugal: A retrospective study of a community representative population

Impact of process of care in the short-term mortality in non-severe intracerebral hemorrhage in southern Portugal

INTRODUCTION

Patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) face the worse functional and vital prognosis among all stroke subtypes. In cases of severe SICH, therapeutic inertia or nihilism complicates meaningful identification of outcome predictors. Therefore, we sought to investigate clinic-radiological and process of care predictors of short-term mortality in patients with mild to moderate SICH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Observational retrospective community representative consecutive case series of patients from Algarve, southern Portugal. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of short-term (30-day) death.

RESULTS

Mortality was 23.9% (111/464). Most important predictors of death were unconsciousness at admission (OR = 12.392, 95% CI = 3.816-40.241, p < 0.001), hospital arrival ≥ 6 h after stroke onset (OR = 2.842, 95% CI = 1.380-5.852, p =.005), hematoma volume > 30 cc/cm3 (OR = 3.295, 95% CI 0 1.561-6.953, p =.002), intraventricular extension (OR = 2.885, 95% CI = 1.457-5.712, p =.002) and ≥ 24 h in the Emergency Department (OR = 19.675, 95% CI = 3.682-34.125, p =.009). Stroke Unit (SU) admission reduced the likelihood of death (OR = 0.293, 95% CI = 0.137-0.682, p =.002).

CONCLUSION

The observed mortality is high. Apart from the traditional clinic-radiological factors, in mild to moderate SICH, process of care related factors have strong impact on mortality. These results highlight the need of continuous improvement of SICH care to improve the prognosis.

Incidence and Long-Term Survival of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage Over Time: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background and Purpose

Recent epidemiological data indicate that the absolute number of hemorrhagic stroke cases increased by 47% between 1990 and 2010 and continued to cause high rates of death and disability. The last systematic review and meta-analysis of incidence and long-term survival of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) were published 11 and 7 years ago, respectively, and lacked comparison between different income groups, therefore, a more up to date analysis is needed. We aim to investigate the ICH incidence and long-term survival data in countries of different income groups.

Materials Methods

We systematically searched Ovid Medline for population-based longitudinal studies of first-ever spontaneous ICH published from January 2000 to December 2020. We performed meta-analyses on the incidence and survival rate in countries of 4 different income groups with random-effects models (severe inconsistency). The I² was used to measure the heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was further investigated by conducting the meta-regression on the study mid-year. Time trends of the survival rate were assessed by weighted linear regression.

Results

We identified 84 eligible papers, including 68 publications reporting incidence and 24 publications on the survival rate. The pooled incidence of ICH per 100,000 per person-years was 26.47 (95% CI: 21.84–32.07) worldwide, 25.9 (95% CI: 22.63–29.63) in high-income countries (HIC), 28.45 (95% CI: 15.90–50.88) in upper-middle-income countries, and 31.73 (95% CI: 18.41–54.7) in lower-middle-income countries. The 1-year pooled survival rate was from 50% (95% CI: 47–54%; n = 4,380) worldwide to 50% (95% CI: 47–54%) in HIC, and 46% (95% CI: 38–55%) in upper-middle income countries. The 5-year pooled survival rate was 41% (95% CI: 35–48%; n = 864) worldwide, 41% (95% CI: 32–50%) in high-income and upper-middle countries. No publications were found reporting the long-term survival in lower-middle-income and low-income countries. No time trends in incidence or survival were found by meta-regression.

Conclusion

The pooled ICH incidence was highest in lower-middle-income countries. About half of ICH patients survived 1 year, and about two-fifths survived 5 years. Reliable population-based studies estimating the ICH incidence and long-term survival in low-income and low-middle-income countries are needed to help prevention of ICH.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=170140, PROSPERO CRD42020170140.