Predicting extended operative time and length of inpatient stay in cervical deformity corrective surgery

Cost Benefit of Implementation of Risk Stratification Models for Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

Assess the extent to which defined risk factors of adverse events are drivers of cost-utility in spinal deformity (ASD) surgery.

METHODS

ASD patients with 2-year (2Y) data were included. Tertiles were used to define high degrees of frailty, sagittal deformity, blood loss, and surgical time. Cost was calculated using the Pearl Diver registry and cost-utility at 2Y was compared between cohorts based on the number of risk factors present. Statistically significant differences in cost-utility by number of baseline risk factors were determined using ANOVA, followed by a generalized linear model, adjusting for clinical site and surgeon, to assess the effects of increasing risk score on overall cost-utility.

RESULTS

By 2 years, 31% experienced a major complication and 23% underwent reoperation. Patients with ≤2 risk factors had significantly less major complications. Patients with 2 risk factors improved the most from baseline to 2Y in ODI. Average cost increased by $8234 per risk factor (R2 = .981). Cost-per-QALY at 2Y increased by $122,650 per risk factor (R2 = .794). Adjusted generalized linear model demonstrated a significant trend between increasing risk score and increasing cost-utility (r2 = .408, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The number of defined patient-specific and surgical risk factors, especially those with greater than two, were associated with increased index surgical costs and diminished cost-utility. Efforts to optimize patient physiology and minimize surgical risk would likely reduce healthcare expenditures and improve the overall cost-utility profile for ASD interventions.Level of evidence: III.

Predictive models to assess risk of extended length of stay in adults with spinal deformity and lumbar degenerative pathology: development and internal validation

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Postoperative recovery after adult spinal deformity (ASD) operations is arduous, fraught with complications, and often requires extended hospital stays. A need exists for a method to rapidly predict patients at risk for extended length of stay (eLOS) in the preoperative setting.

PURPOSE

To develop a machine learning model to preoperatively estimate the likelihood of eLOS following elective multi-level lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal instrumented fusions (≥3 segments) for ASD.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

Retrospectively from a state-level inpatient database hosted by the Health care cost and Utilization Project.

PATIENT SAMPLE

Of 8,866 patients of age ≥50 with ASD undergoing elective lumbar or thoracolumbar multilevel instrumented fusions.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was eLOS (>7 days).

METHODS

Predictive variables consisted of demographics, comorbidities, and operative information. Significant variables from univariate and multivariate analyses were used to develop a logistic regression-based predictive model that use six predictors. Model accuracy was assessed through area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

Of 8,866 patients met inclusion criteria. A saturated logistic model with all significant variables from multivariate analysis was developed (AUC=0.77), followed by generation of a simplified logistic model through stepwise logistic regression (AUC=0.76). Peak AUC was reached with inclusion of six selected predictors (combined anterior and posterior approach, surgery to both lumbar and thoracic regions, ≥8 level fusion, malnutrition, congestive heart failure, and academic institution). A cutoff of 0.18 for eLOS yielded a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 68%.

CONCLUSIONS

This predictive model can facilitate identification of adults at risk for eLOS following elective multilevel lumbar/thoracolumbar spinal instrumented fusions for ASD. With a fair diagnostic accuracy, the predictive calculator will ideally enable clinicians to improve preoperative planning, guide patient expectations, enable optimization of modifiable risk factors, facilitate appropriate discharge planning, stratify financial risk, and accurately identify patients who may represent high-cost outliers. Future prospective studies that validate this risk assessment tool on external datasets would be valuable.

Factors contributing to a longer length of stay in adults admitted to a quaternary spinal care center

BACKGROUND

Longer hospital length of stay (LOS) has been associated with worse outcomes and increased resource utilization. However, diagnostic and patient-level factors associated with LOS have not been well studied on a large scale. The goal was to identify patient, surgical and organizational factors associated with longer patient LOS for adult patients at a high-volume quaternary spinal care center.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 13,493 admissions from January 2006 to December 2019. Factors analyzed included age, sex, admission status (emergent vs scheduled), ASIA grade, operative vs non-operative management, mean blood loss, operative time, and adverse events. Specific adverse events included surgical site infection (SSI), other infection (systemic or UTI), neuropathic pain, delirium, dural tear, pneumonia, and dysphagia. Diagnostic categories included trauma, oncology, deformity, degenerative, and "other". A multivariable linear regression model was fit to log-transformed LOS to determine independent factors associated with patient LOS, with effects expressed as multipliers on mean LOS.

RESULTS

Mean LOS for the population (SD) was 15.8 (34.0) days. Factors significantly (p < 0.05) associated with longer LOS were advanced patient age [multiplier on mean LOS 1.011/year (95% CI: 1.007-1.015)], emergency admission [multiplier on mean LOS 1.615 (95% CI: 1.337-1.951)], ASIA grade [multiplier on mean LOS 1.125/grade (95% CI: 1.051-1.205)], operative management [multiplier on mean LOS 1.211 (95% CI: 1.006-1.459)], and the occurrence of one or more AEs [multiplier on mean LOS 2.613 (95% CI: 2.188-3.121)]. Significant AEs included postoperative SSI [multiplier on mean LOS 1.749 (95% CI: 1.250-2.449)], other infections (systemic infections and UTI combined) [multiplier on mean LOS 1.650 (95% CI: 1.359-2.004)], delirium [multiplier on mean LOS 1.404 (95% CI: 1.103-1.787)], and pneumonia [multiplier on mean LOS 1.883 (95% CI: 1.447-2.451)]. Among the diagnostic categories explored, degenerative patients experienced significantly shorter LOS [multiplier on mean LOS 0.672 (95%CI: 0.535-0.844), p < 0.001] compared to non-degenerative categories.

CONCLUSION

This large-scale study taking into account diagnostic categories identified several factors associated with patient LOS. Future interventions should target modifiable factors to minimize LOS and guide hospital resource allocation thereby improving patient outcomes and quality of care and decreasing healthcare-associated costs.

Neuromuscular lordoscoliosis: an unusual response to post-operative halo-gravity traction

PURPOSE

To report the results of prolonged post-operative halo-gravity traction in a patient in whom the surgery had to be interrupted unexpectedly and for whom subsequently specific clinical circumstances contraindicated completion of the surgical procedure.

METHODS

The patient was a 15-year-old male with severe cervico-dorsolumbar lordoscoliosis who was being studied for associated diffuse axonal injury. He performed halo-gravity traction for 12 weeks. Subsequent surgical management consisted of occipito-lumbar posterior instrumented fusion. During the surgical approach, electrocardiographic changes with hemodynamic decompensation were detected that did not improve with anesthetic reanimation. The intervention was stopped, the surgical wound was closed, and the patient was transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU). It was decided that a revision surgery with the aim to continue with the previous strategy would imply a high risk of perioperative morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

Orthopedic management was decided upon consisting of continued halo-gravity traction with wheelchair modification at home, which was extended to a period of 12 months because of the good results obtained in terms of cervicothoracic realignment. Two years after halo-gravity discontinuation, clinical and radiographic occipito-cervical alignment was good and the patient conserved certain occipito-cervical range of motion and had the capacity of maintaining a horizontal gaze.

CONCLUSION

We considered the outcome extraordinary and relevant in this complex and unusual patient. A longer follow-up will provide more data regarding the final outcome of this treatment.

Risk factors for determining length of intensive care unit and hospital stays following correction of cervical deformity: evaluation of early severe adverse events

OBJECTIVE

Correction of rigid cervical deformities can be associated with high complication rates and result in prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stays. In this study, the authors aimed to examine the risk factors contributing to length of stay (LOS) in both the hospital and ICU following adult cervical deformity (ACD) surgery and to identify severe adverse events that occurred in this setting.

METHODS

A retrospective review of ACD patients who underwent posterior-based osteotomies for deformity correction from 2010 to 2019 was performed. Inclusion criteria were cervical kyphosis > 20° and/or cervical sagittal vertical axis (cSVA) > 4 cm. Multivariate analysis was used to identify risk factors independently associated with ICU and hospital LOS.

RESULTS

A total of 107 patients were included. The mean age was 63.5 years, and 61.7% were female. Over half (52.3%) underwent 3-column osteotomies, while 47.7% underwent posterior column osteotomies. There was significant correction of all cervical parameters: cSVA (6.0 vs 3.6 cm, p < 0.001), cervical lordosis (8.2° vs -5.3°, p < 0.001), cervical scoliosis (6.5° vs 2.2°, p < 0.001), and T1-slope (40.2° vs 34.5°, p < 0.001). There were also reciprocal changes to the distal spine: thoracic kyphosis (54.4° vs 46.4°, p < 0.001), lumbar lordosis (49.9° vs 45.8°, p = 0.003), and thoracolumbar scoliosis (13.9° vs 11.1°, p = 0.009). Overall, 4 patients (3.7%) suffered aspiration-related complications, 3 patients (2.8%) experienced dysphagia requiring a feeding tube, and 4 patients (3.7%) had compromised airways, with 1 resulting in death. The mean ICU and hospital LOS were 2.8 days and 7.9 days, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified three factors independently associated with longer ICU LOS: female sex (3.0 vs 2.4 days, p = 0.004), ≥ 12 segments fused (3.5 vs 1.9 days, p = 0.002), and postoperative complication (4.0 vs 1.9 days, p = 0.017). These same factors were independently associated with longer hospital LOS as well: female sex (8.3 vs 7.3 days, p = 0.013), ≥ 12 segments fused (9.4 vs 6.2 days, p = 0.001), and complication (9.7 vs 6.7 days, p = 0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Posterior-based osteotomies are very effective for the correction of ACD, but postoperative hospital stays are relatively longer than those following surgery for degenerative disease. Risk factors for prolonged ICU and hospital LOS consist of both nonmodifiable (female sex) and modifiable (≥ 12 segments fused and presence of complication) risk factors. Additional multicenter prospective studies will be needed to validate these findings.