Serum progesterone levels could predict diagnosis, completion and complications of miscarriage

Clinical factors associated with subsequent surgical intervention in women undergoing early medical termination of viable or non-viable pregnancies

Introduction

Mifepristone-misoprostol treatment for medical abortion and miscarriage are safe and effective. This study aimed to assess clinical factors associated with subsequent surgical intervention after medical termination of early viable or non-viable pregnancy.

Methods

This retrospective, single-center study included women who underwent medical abortion at Taipei Medical University between January 2010 and December 2019. A total of 1,561 subjects, with 1,080 viable and 481 non-viable pregnancies, who were treated with oral mifepristone 600 mg followed by misoprostol 600 mg 48 h later were included. Data of all pregnancies and medical termination of pregnancy were evaluated using regression analysis. The main outcome was successful termination of pregnancy.

Results

The success rate of medical abortion was comparable in women with viable and non-viable (92.13% vs. 92.93%) pregnancies. Besides retained tissue, more existing pregnancies with ultrasonographic findings were found in the non-viable pregnancy group than in the viable pregnancy group (29.4% vs. 14.1%, p = 0.011). Multivariate analysis showed that previous delivery was an independent risk factor for failed medical abortion among all included cases. In women with viable pregnancy, longer gestational age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.483, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.224-1.797, p < 0.001] and previous Cesarean delivery (aOR: 2.177, 95% CI: 1.167-40.62, p = 0.014) were independent risk factors for failed medical abortion. Number of Cesarean deliveries (aOR: 1.448, 95% CI: 1.029-2.039, p = 0.034) was an independent risk factor for failed medication abortion in women with non-viable pregnancies.

Conclusion

This is the first cohort study to identify risk factors for subsequent surgical intervention in women with viable or non-viable pregnancies who had undergone early medically induced abortions. The success rate of medical abortion is comparable in women with viable and non-viable pregnancies. Previous delivery is an independent risk factor for failed medical abortion. Clinical follow-up may be necessary for women who are at risk of subsequent surgical intervention.

Usability, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness of a medical software for early pregnancies: a retrospective study

STUDY QUESTION

Can early pregnancies be accurately and cost-effectively diagnosed and managed using a new medical computerized tool?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Compared to the standard clinical approach, retrospective implementation of the new medical software in a gynaecological emergency unit was correlated with more accurate diagnosis and more cost-effective management.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Early pregnancy complications are responsible for a large percentage of consultations, mostly in emergency units, with guidelines becoming complex and poorly known/misunderstood by practitioners.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A total of 780 gynaecological emergency consultations (446 patients), recorded between November 2018 and June 2019 in a tertiary university hospital, were retrospectively encoded in a new medical computerized tool. The inclusion criteria were a positive hCG test result, ultrasonographical visualization of gestational sac, and/or embryo corresponding to a gestational age of 14 weeks or less. Diagnosis and management suggested by the new computerized tool are named eDiagnoses, while those provided by a gynaecologist member of the emergency department staff are called medDiagnoses.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Usability was the primary endpoint, with accuracy and cost reduction, respectively, as secondary and tertiary endpoints. Identical eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses were considered as accurate. During follow-up visits, if the updated eDiagnoses and medDiagnoses became both identical to a previously discrepant eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis, this previous eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis was also considered as correct. Four double-blinded experts reviewed persistent discrepancies, determining the accurate diagnoses. eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses accuracies were compared using McNemar's Chi square test, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Only 1 (0.1%) from 780 registered medical records lacked data for full encoding. Out of the 779 remaining consultations, 675 eDiagnoses were identical to the medDiagnoses (86.6%) and 104 were discrepant (13.4%). From these 104, 60 reached an agreement during follow-up consultations, with 59 medDiagnoses ultimately changing into the initial eDiagnoses (98%) and only one discrepant eDiagnosis turning later into the initial medDiagnosis (2%). Finally, 24 remained discrepant at all subsequent checks and 20 were not re-evaluated. Out of these 44, the majority of experts agreed on 38 eDiagnoses (86%) and 5 medDiagnoses (11%, including four twin pregnancies whose twinness was the only discrepancy). No majority was reached for one discrepant eDiagnosis/medDiagnosis (2%). In total, the accuracy of eDiagnoses was 99.1% (675 + 59 + 38 = 772 eDiagnoses out of 779), versus 87.4% (675 + 1 + 5 = 681) for medDiagnoses (P < 0.0001). Calculating all basic costs of extra consultations, extra-medications, extra-surgeries, and extra-hospitalizations induced by incorrect medDiagnoses versus eDiagnoses, the new medical computerized tool would have saved 3623.75 Euros per month. Retrospectively, the medical computerized tool was usable in almost all the recorded cases (99.9%), globally more accurate (99.1% versus 87.4%), and for all diagnoses except twinning reports, and it was more cost-effective than the standard clinical approach.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The retrospective study design is a limitation. Some observed improvements with the medical software could derive from the encoding by a rested and/or more experienced physician who had a better ultrasound interpretation. This software cannot replace clinical and ultrasonographical skills but may improve the compliance to published guidelines.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This medical computerized tool is improving. A new version considers diagnosis and management of multiple pregnancies with their specificities (potentially multiple locations, chorioamnionicity). Prospective evaluations will be required. Further developmental steps are planned, including software incorporation into ultrasound devices and integration of previously published predictive/prognostic factors (e.g. serum progesterone, corpus luteum scoring).

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

No external funding was obtained for this study. F.B. and D.G. created the new medical software.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03993015.

Corpus luteum score, a simple Doppler examination to prognose early pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

In early pregnancies, miscarriages and inconclusive ultrasound scans considering location and viability are very common. In several previous studies, serum progesterone levels predicted viability of pregnancy and, in recent ones, failed Pregnancies of Unknown Location (PUL), completion of miscarriage and complications. Corpus luteum, secreting progesterone in early pregnancy, was less studied. Some publications showed correlations between corpus luteum aspects and diagnosis of miscarriage but it was not evaluated for other outcomes in early pregnancy, such as failed PUL, completion of miscarriage or complications. We aimed to assess if Doppler examination of corpus luteum could also predict all these outcomes: failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and complications.

STUDY DESIGN

A single operator prospectively described and/or collected pictures of Doppler signal in the wall of the corpus luteum at most consultations in our early pregnancy unit and established a three-level score. All suspected or confirmed non-viable pregnancies with this score or/and serum progesterone levels were registered retrospectively. With logistic regressions, AIC/BIC, likelihood ratios, ROC curves, Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests, we evaluated the ability of the score, alone, to predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and the complications, and, combined, to improve previously published predictions.

RESULTS

From 277 included pregnancies, 186 (67.1 %) miscarried. Of these, 159/186 (85.5 %) fully evacuated without surgery: 114/186 (61.3 %) within 20 days after the first diagnosis and 45/186 (24.2 %) after more than 20 days. Twenty-seven patients (14.5 %) underwent surgical evacuation, including ten complications, five haemorrhages and five suspected infections. Logistic regression correlated strongly the corpus luteum score with failed PUL (p < 0.0001) and miscarriages (p < 0.0001). Moreover, rates of complications and swift non-surgical completions of miscarriage were respectively 0 % and 92 % with scores of 0, versus 6 % and 44 % with scores of 1, versus 16 % and 0 % with scores of 2. Combined with serum progesterone levels, this score improved most predictions. Adding parity or history of miscarriage in predictive models even increased these performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Corpus luteum score, alone, can predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and their complications. Combining this score with other factors (mainly serum progesterone levels) improves most predictions.