Combined immunodeficiencies

Nomogram for Predicting Early Mortality after Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation in Children with Inborn Errors of Immunity

PURPOSE

Pediatric patients with inborn errors of immunity (IEI) undergoing umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) are at risk of early mortality. Our aim was to develop and validate a prediction model for early mortality after UCBT in pediatric IEI patients based on pretransplant factors.

METHODS

Data from 230 pediatric IEI patients who received their first UCBT between 2014 and 2021 at a single center were analyzed retrospectively. Data from 2014-2019 and 2020-2021 were used as training and validation sets, respectively. The primary outcome of interest was early mortality. Machine learning algorithms were used to identify risk factors associated with early mortality and to build predictive models. The model with the best performance was visualized using a nomogram. Discriminative ability was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Fifty days was determined as the cutoff for distinguishing early mortality in pediatric IEI patients undergoing UCBT. Of the 230 patients, 43 (18.7%) suffered early mortality. Multivariate logistic regression with pretransplant albumin, CD4 (absolute count), elevated C-reactive protein, and medical history of sepsis showed good discriminant AUC values of 0.7385 (95% CI, 0.5824-0.8945) and 0.827 (95% CI, 0.7409-0.9132) in predicting early mortality in the validation and training sets, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.5385 and 0.8154 for validation and 0.7667 and 0.7705 for training, respectively. The final model yielded net benefits across a reasonable range of risk thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram can predict early mortality in pediatric IEI patients undergoing UCBT.

Newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency: The results of the first pilot TREC and KREC study in Ukraine with involving of 10,350 neonates

Severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) is a group of inborn errors of immunity (IEI) characterized by severe T- and/or B-lymphopenia. At birth, there are usually no clinical signs of the disease, but in the first year of life, often in the first months the disease manifests with severe infections. Timely diagnosis and treatment play a crucial role in patient survival. In Ukraine, the expansion of hemostatic stem cell transplantation and the development of a registry of bone marrow donors in the last few years have created opportunities for early correction of IEI and improving the quality and life expectancy of children with SCID. For the first time in Ukraine, we initiated a pilot study on newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency and T-cell lymphopenia by determining T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs) and kappa-deleting recombination excision circles (KRECs). The analysis of TREC and KREC was performed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by analysis of melting curves in neonatal dry blood spots (DBS). The DBS samples were collected between May 2020 and January 2022. In total, 10,350 newborns were screened. Sixty-five blood DNA samples were used for control: 25 from patients with ataxia-telangiectasia, 37 - from patients with Nijmegen breakage syndrome, 1 – with X-linked agammaglobulinemia, 2 – with SCID (JAK3 deficiency and DCLRE1C deficiency). Retest from the first DBS was provided in 5.8% of patients. New sample test was needed in 73 (0.7%) of newborns. Referral to confirm or rule out the diagnosis was used in 3 cases, including one urgent abnormal value. CID (T^lowB+NK+) was confirmed in a patient with the urgent abnormal value. The results of a pilot study in Ukraine are compared to other studies (the referral rate 1: 3,450). Approbation of the method on DNA samples of children with ataxia-telangiectasia and Nijmegen syndrome showed a high sensitivity of TRECs (a total of 95.2% with cut-off 2000 copies per 10⁶ cells) for the detection of these diseases. Thus, the tested method has shown its effectiveness for the detection of T- and B-lymphopenia and can be used for implementation of newborn screening for SCID in Ukraine.