Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19

Asymmetric dynamic linkage between consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and international energy prices: Evidence from time-frequency wavelet and nonlinear analysis

This study investigates the relationship between consumer sentiment (CONS), inflation expectations (INEX) and international energy prices, drawing on principles from behavioral. We focus on Brent crude oil price and Henry Hub natural gas prices as key indicators of energy market dynamics. Based on the monthly data from January 2003 to March 2023, three wavelet methods are applied to examine the time-frequency linkage, while the nonlinear distributed lag model (NARDL) is used to verify the asymmetric impact of two factors on energy prices. The results highlight a substantial connection between consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and international energy prices, with the former in the short term and the latter in the medium to long term. Especially, these correlations are particularly pronounced during the financial crisis and global health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 epidemic. Furthermore, we detect short-term asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations on Brent crude oil price, with the negative shocks dominating. The positive effects of these factors on oil prices contribute to observed long-term asymmetry. In contrast, inflation expectations have short-term and long-run asymmetric effects on natural gas price, and both are dominated by reverse shocks, while the impact of consumer sentiment on natural gas prices appears to be less asymmetric. This study could enrich current theories on the interaction between the international energy market and serve as a supplement to current literature.

Dynamic Influence of Network Public Opinions on Price Fluctuation of Small Agricultural Products Based on NLP-TVP-VAR Model—Taking Garlic as an Example

In recent years, the price of small agricultural products has both plummeted and skyrocketed, which has a great impact on people’s lives. Studying the factors affecting the price fluctuation of small agricultural products is of great significance for stabilizing their price. With the development and application of social media, farmers and consumers are more greatly influenced by online public opinion, resulting in irrational planting behavior or purchasing behavior, which has a complex impact on the price of small agricultural products. Taking garlic as an example, we crawled through network public opinions about garlic price from January 2015 to December 2020 using web crawler technology. Then, the network public opinions were quantified using a natural language processing and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (NLP-TVP-VAR) model to empirically analyze their dynamic influence on garlic price fluctuation. It was found that both public attitude and public attention have a short-term influence on garlic price fluctuation, and the influences of each differ according to direction, intensity and timing. The influence of public attitude on garlic price fluctuation is positive, while the influence of public attention on garlic price fluctuation is largely negative. The influence intensity of public attitude is stronger than of public attention on garlic price fluctuation. The influence of public attitude on garlic price fluctuation shows a trend of intensifying, while that of public attention has been weaker than in previous years. In addition, based on the results of our study, we present some recommendations for improving the comprehensive information platform and price fluctuation early warning system for the whole industry chain of small agricultural products.

Modeling and Simulation Research of Interactive Public Opinion Evolution under Multi-Agent Interventions

To study the interactive impact and multi-agent intervention effect caused by multiple public opinion events, a SI3R interactive public opinion communication model is proposed in this paper. Based on interactive public opinion evolution and influence paths of multi-agent interventions, the dynamic equation under multi-agent intervention is formulated; the equilibrium points of the model are calculated and the stability of the model is validated; and the assignment functions are constructed. Further, real data of the case study are obtained and set as initial model simulation parameters, the multi-agent intervention and control measures are numerically simulated and the effects of comprehensive public opinion control are obtained and put forward to suggestions for public opinion management. Simulation results show that the model can simulate the interactive propagation and evolution trend of multiple public opinion events, and imitate the intervention effect of each agent. Compared with the traditional transmission and infection model, it provides an assignment method combined with actual events. Taking the interaction of multiple public opinion events and the effect of multi-agent intervention into account, a new perspective for the formulation of public opinion supervision and control strategies can be provided.

Analysis of the Dilemma of Promoting Circular Logistics Packaging in China: A Stochastic Evolutionary Game-Based Approach

The environmental pollution caused by logistics packaging in China has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and circular packaging is considered an effective means to solve the aforementioned problem. Therefore, this study considers the uncertainty of the external environment; constructs a stochastic game model of circular logistics-packaging promotion, which consists of environmental regulators, logistics enterprises, and consumers; collects data related to logistics packaging in China to describe the current circular-packaging promotion dilemma; and conducts a parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results show that (1) after a short period of fluctuation, the environmental regulator will lock in the "strong regulation" strategy, whereas logistics enterprises and consumers will quickly lock in the "no promotion" and "negative use" strategies. (2) The change in the initial probability will affect the rate of strategy evolution of the gaming system. (3) The "strong regulatory" strategy of environmental regulators and the increase in the number of circular-packaging cycles can help establish a logistics-recycling-packaging system. (4) The increase in recycling incentives can cause consumers to shift toward "active use" strategies, but this has accelerated the rate at which logistics companies lock into "no promotion" strategies. (5) The increase in the intensity of random interference will raise the fluctuation of the evolution of the game subject. For logistics enterprises, moderate random interference helps them evolve toward the "promotion" strategy.

Public Social Media Discussions on Agricultural Product Safety Incidents: Chinese African Swine Fever Debate on Weibo

Public concern over major agricultural product safety incidents, such as swine flu and avian flu, can intensify financial losses in the livestock and poultry industries. Crawler technology were applied to reviewed the Weibo social media discussions on the African Swine Fever (ASF) incident in China that was reported on 3 August 2018, and used content analysis and network analysis to specifically examine the online public opinion network dissemination characteristics of verified individual users, institutional users and ordinary users. It was found that: (1) attention paid to topics related to "epidemic," "treatment," "effect" and "prevent" decrease in turn, with the interest in "prevent" increasing significantly when human infections were possible; (2) verified individual users were most concerned about epidemic prevention and control and play a supervisory role, the greatest concern of institutional users and ordinary users were issues related to agricultural industry and agricultural products price fluctuations respectively; (3) among institutional users, media was the main opinion leader, and among non-institutional users, elites from all walks of life, especially the food safety personnel acted as opinion leaders. Based on these findings, some policy suggestions are given: determine the nature of the risk to human health of the safety incident, stabilizing prices of relevant agricultural products, and giving play to the role of information dissemination of relevant institutions.