Graduated driver licensing and teenage driver research in 2006

Multivariate dynamic Tobit models with lagged observed dependent variables: An effectiveness analysis of highway safety laws

Highway safety laws aim to influence driver behaviors so as to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes, and their outcomes. For one specific highway safety law, it would have different effects on the crashes across severities. Understanding such effects can help policy makers upgrade current laws and hence improve traffic safety. To investigate the effects of highway safety laws on crashes across severities, multivariate models are needed to account for the interdependency issues in crash counts across severities. Based on the characteristics of the dependent variables, multivariate dynamic Tobit (MVDT) models are proposed to analyze crash counts that are aggregated at the state level. Lagged observed dependent variables are incorporated into the MVDT models to account for potential temporal correlation issues in crash data. The state highway safety law related factors are used as the explanatory variables and socio-demographic and traffic factors are used as the control variables. Three models, a MVDT model with lagged observed dependent variables, a MVDT model with unobserved random variables, and a multivariate static Tobit (MVST) model are developed and compared. The results show that among the investigated models, the MVDT models with lagged observed dependent variables have the best goodness-of-fit. The findings indicate that, compared to the MVST, the MVDT models have better explanatory power and prediction accuracy. The MVDT model with lagged observed variables can better handle the stochasticity and dependency in the temporal evolution of the crash counts and the estimated values from the model are closer to the observed values. The results show that more lives could be saved if law enforcement agencies can make a sustained effort to educate the public about the importance of motorcyclists wearing helmets. Motor vehicle crash-related deaths, injuries, and property damages could be reduced if states enact laws for stricter text messaging rules, higher speeding fines, older licensing age, and stronger graduated licensing provisions. Injury and PDO crashes would be significantly reduced with stricter laws prohibiting the use of hand-held communication devices and higher fines for drunk driving.

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) in the United States in 2016: A literature review and commentary

This is the sixth in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, the present review covering the period mid-2012 through 2016. In the two decades since GDL programs began to be introduced on a widespread basis in the United States, a vast amount of research has been published. The current review discusses recent research and the present state of knowledge on the following topics: characteristics of the novice driver population; effects of GDL on crashes for ages 16-19; the learner and intermediate periods; night and passenger restrictions; cellphone laws; GDL for older novices; enforcement of GDL rules; and programs attempting to influence GDL compliance and safe driving practices in general. GDL stands out as a successful policy for reducing teen driver crashes and is worth building on to extend its benefits. Strengthening existing GDL programs has the most potential for producing further crash reductions.

Obstacles to engaging in young driver licensing: Perspectives of parents

INTRODUCTION

Young novice drivers remain at greater risk of injury and death despite a wealth of interventions including graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs. The key to implementing safer practices inherent in GDL appears to lie with optimising the role of parents. This qualitative research explored the parent's perspectives of obstacles to engaging in the driver licensing process within a GDL program. Parents also shared advice on what they found helpful, and where relevant, recommended changes in the process to enable safer practices for young drivers.

METHOD

Twenty-three parents (aged 35-60 years, M=49.52, SD=8.01, 11 males) participated in semi-structured interviews regarding licensing experiences with their young driver children. The young drivers included learner (n=11), provisional (restricted/intermediate) (n=9) and open (unrestricted/full) licence drivers (n=3), ranging from 16 to 24 years (M=18.04, SD=2.21, 13 males).

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Content analysis revealed that most obstacles were encountered at the learner licensing phase, with the parent-reported difficult temperament of the learner driver the most prominent. Unsurprisingly, advice to other parents to be patient and remain calm featured heavily during the same phase. Anxiety from not having control of the vehicle was another obstacle at the learner phase, translating to anxieties for child safety in the early stages of provisional driving. Recommendations for the current GDL included more rigorous road rule testing, with general support for the program, professional driver training at learner and provisional stages facilitated parental engagement through the licensing phases.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

The findings overwhelmingly suggest a need for parents to be educated regarding their importance in, and of, the driver licensing process, and the efficacy of their instruction, content and practices.

Injury Prevention as an Integral Part of Health System Reform Efforts: Lessons Learned from Recently Enacted Massachusetts Laws

Abstract-Injury is the leading cause of mortality in people younger than 44 years of age. Injury prevention laws and policies are not only effective in saving lives at a population level but are also remarkably cost-effective compared to most public health interventions. For example, the implementation of a stricter Massachusetts Graduated Driver Licensing Law in 2007 resulted in a very significant and rapid decrease in the rates of motor vehicle crashes of teenager drivers, saved thousands of lives, and resulted in more than $10 million dollars savings in health care costs over 5 years. We therefore suggest that trauma and injury prevention should be made a priority in any attempt at local, regional, or national health system reform.

Steering teens safe: a randomized trial of a parent-based intervention to improve safe teen driving

BACKGROUND

Crashes are the leading cause of death for teens, and parent-based interventions are a promising approach. We assess the effectiveness of Steering Teens Safe, a parent-focused program to increase safe teen driving.

METHODS

Steering Teens Safe aimed to improve parental communication with teens about safe driving using motivational interviewing techniques in conjunction with 19 safe driving lessons. A randomized controlled trial involved 145 parent-teen dyads (70 intervention and 75 control). Intervention parents received a 45-minute session to learn the program with four follow-up phone sessions, a DVD, and a workbook. Control parents received a standard brochure about safe driving. Scores were developed to measure teen-reported quantity and quality of parental communication about safe driving. The main outcome measure was a previously validated Risky Driving Score reported by teens. Because the Score was highly skewed, a generalized linear model based on a gamma distribution was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Intervention teens ranked their parent's success in talking about driving safety higher than control teens (p = 0.035) and reported that their parents talked about more topics (non-significant difference). The Risky Driving Score was 21% lower in intervention compared to control teens (85% CI = 0.60, 1.00). Interaction between communication quantity and the intervention was examined. Intervention teens who reported more successful communication had a 42% lower Risky Driving Score (95% CI = 0.37, 0.94) than control parents with less successful communication.

CONCLUSIONS

This program had a positive although not strong effect, and it may hold the most promise in partnership with other programs, such as Driver's Education or Graduated Driver's License policies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01014923. Registered Nov. 16, 2009.

Stereotype threat and hazard perception among provisional license drivers

Stereotype threat refers to the negative impact a stereotype about one's group can have on one's performance in domains relevant to the stereotype. In the current paper, we explore whether the negative stereotype of provisional license drivers (PLDs) might produce stereotype threat in a driving-related hazard perception task. We manipulate threat by asking participants to self-identify as PLDs in a categorization condition, or by reminding PLD participants explicitly of the stereotype of PLDs in an explicit stereotype condition. Results reveal increments in hazard perception in the categorization condition, and decrements in hazard perception in the explicit stereotype condition. Mediation analysis reveals that hazard perception performance is fully mediated by increased effort in the categorization condition and by decreased effort in the explicit stereotype condition. We discuss these findings in terms of their implications for stereotype threat and its mediators, and for public policy that explicitly discriminates between PLDs and other driver groups.

Graduated driver licensing research, 2010-present

This is the latest in a series of reviews of research on graduated driver licensing (GDL) published in the Journal of Safety Research, covering the period January 1, 2010-June 1, 2012 and works in progress. The intent is to keep researchers and policy makers current regarding the existing state of knowledge about GDL, and to identify information gaps and areas where clarification of research findings are needed. The recent research indicates that we continue to learn about ways to extend GDL benefits, but there remain important questions in need of further inquiry. In terms of impact on industry, the review provides guidance for the future GDL research agenda.

Alcohol-related risk of driver fatalities: an update using 2007 data

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the relative risk of being involved in an alcohol-related crash has changed over the decade from 1996 to 2007, a period during which there has been little evidence of a reduction in the percentage of all fatal crashes involving alcohol.

METHOD

We compared blood-alcohol information for the 2006 and 2007 crash cases (N = 6,863, 22.8% of them women) drawn from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with control blood-alcohol data from participants in the 2007 U.S. National Roadside Survey (N = 6,823). Risk estimates were computed and compared with those previously obtained from the 1996 FARS and roadside survey data.

RESULTS

Although the adult relative risk of being involved in a fatal alcohol-related crash apparently did not change from 1996 to 2007, the risk for involvement in an alcohol-related crash for underage women has increased to the point where it has become the same as that for underage men. Further, the risk that sober underage men will become involved in a fatal crash has doubled over the 1996-2007 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with estimates obtained from a decade earlier, young women in this study are at an increased risk of involvement in alcohol-related crashes. Similarly, underage sober drivers in this study are more at risk of involvement in a crash than they were a decade earlier.

Evaluation of a program to enhance young drivers' safety in Israel

Young drivers in Israel, as in other parts of the world, are involved in car crashes more than any other age group. The graduated driver licensing system in Israel requires that all new drivers be accompanied by an experienced driver whenever they drive for the first 3 months after obtaining a driving license. In an effort to make the accompanied driving phase more effective, a novel program which targets both young drivers and their parents was initiated in 2005. The program administers a personal meeting with the young driver and the accompanying parent scheduled for the beginning of the accompanied driving phase. In this meeting guidance is given regarding best practices for undertaking the accompanied driving, as well as tips for dealing with in-vehicle parent-teen dynamics. Through 2008, almost 130,000 families of young drivers have participated in the program. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the program, injury crash records of the young drivers who participated in the program were compared with those of all other young drivers that were licensed at the same time period. The results obtained indicate statistically significant lower crash records for young drivers that participated in the program. Limitations of the evaluation related to self-selection biases are discussed, and practical implications are suggested.

Attempts at the practical on-road driving test and the hazard perception test and the risk of traffic crashes in young drivers

OBJECTIVE

This study separately examined the impact of the outcomes of a practical on-road driving test and a hazard perception test on the likelihood of traffic crashes among a cohort of newly licensed young drivers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

The DRIVE study is a prospective cohort study of drivers aged 17 to 24 years holding their first-year provisional driver license in NSW. Information obtained from 20,822 participants in a detailed baseline questionnaire was linked to information on the number of attempts at a mandatory practical on-road driving test and hazard perception test as well as police-reported traffic crashes.

RESULTS

After controlling for a number of sociodemographic and behavioral factors as well as factors related to driver learning experiences, multivariate analysis showed that those who failed the practical on-road test at least 4 times had an increased risk of involvement in a traffic crash compared to those who passed the test at first attempt (relative risk [RR]: 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.65). The crash risk among those who failed the practical on-road test at least 4 times was particularly high in females (RR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.20-3.68). Similarly, those who failed the hazard perception test at least twice had an increased risk of involvement in a traffic crash (RR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.27-2.63) compared to those who passed the test on the first attempt. The crash risk of those who failed the hazard perception test at least twice was particularly high in males (RR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.5-4.1) and among those from rural and remote areas (RR: 5.53, 95% CI: 1.63-18.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings have implications on licensing practices and suggest the need for adequate strategies to assist young drivers with multiple failures in the driving and hazard perception tests.

An evaluation of graduated driver licensing effects on fatal crash involvements of young drivers in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems are designed to reduce the high crash risk of young novice drivers. Almost all states in the United States have some form of a 3-phase GDL system with various restrictions in the intermediate phase. Studies of the effects of GDL in various states show significant reductions in fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers; however, only a few national studies of GDL effects have been published. The objective of this national panel study was to evaluate the effect of GDL laws on the fatal crash involvements of novice drivers while controlling for possible confounding factors not accounted for in prior studies.

METHODS

The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) was used to examine 16- and 17-year-old driver involvement in fatal crashes (where GDL laws are applied) relative to 2 young driver age groups (19-20, 21-25) where GDL would not be expected to have an effect. Dates when various GDL laws were adopted in the states between 1990 and 2007 were coded from a variety of sources. Covariates in the longitudinal panel regression analyses conducted included 4 laws that could have an effect on 16- and 17-year-old drivers: primary enforcement seat belt laws, zero-tolerance (ZT) alcohol laws for drivers younger than age 21, lowering the blood alcohol concentration limit for driving to 0.08, and so-called use and lose laws where drivers aged 20 and younger lose their licenses for underage drinking violations.

RESULTS

The adoption of a GDL law of average strength was associated with a significant decrease in fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers relative to fatal crash involvements of one of the 2 comparison groups. GDL laws rated as "good" showed stronger relationships to fatal crash reductions, and laws rated as "less than good" showed no reductions in crash involvements relative to the older driver comparison groups.

CONCLUSIONS

States that adopt a basic GDL law can expect a decrease of 8 to 14 percent in the proportion of 16- and 17-year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes (relative to 21- to 25-year-old drivers), depending upon their other existing laws that affect novice drivers, such as those used in these analyses. This finding is consistent with recent national studies that used different outcome measures and covariates. The results of this study provide additional support for states to adopt, maintain, and upgrade GDL systems to reduce youthful traffic crash fatalities.

Graduated driver licensing research, 2007-present: a review and commentary

The evolution of graduated licensing systems in the past 25 years has resulted in dramatic growth in research on this topic. The most recent summary reports have covered the period up to 2007. In the present article more recent and ongoing research is categorized, summarized, and discussed.

Road injuries and relaxed licensing requirements for driving light motorcycles in Spain: a time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess differences between the risk of injury for motorcycle riders before and after the passing of a law allowing licenced car drivers to drive light motorcycles without having to take a special motorcycle driving test.

METHODS

We carried out a quasi-experimental study involving comparison groups, and a time-series analysis from 1 January 2002 to 30 April 2008. The study group was composed of people injured while driving or riding a light motorcycle (engine capacity 51-125 cubic centimetres), while the comparison groups consisted of riders of heavy motorcycles (engine capacity > 125 cc), mopeds (engine capacity <or= 50 cc) or cars who were injured in a collision within the city limits. The 'intervention' was a law passed in October 2004 allowing car drivers to drive light motorcycles without taking a special driving test. To detect and quantify changes over time we used Poisson regression, with adjustments for trend and seasonality in road injuries and the existence of a driver's licence penalty point system.

FINDINGS

The risk of injury among light motorcycle riders was greater after the law than before (relative risk, RR = 1.46; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.34-1.60). Although less markedly, after the law the risk of injury also increased among heavy motorcycle drivers (RR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.02-1.29) but remained unchanged among riders of mopeds (RR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.83-1.01) and cars (RR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.97-1.16).

CONCLUSION

Allowing car drivers to drive motorcycles without passing a special test increases the number of road injuries from motorcycle accidents.

An evaluation of graduated driver licensing programs in North America using a meta-analytic approach

Most jurisdictions in North America have some version of graduated driver licensing (GDL). A sound body of evidence documenting the effectiveness of GDL programs in reducing collisions, fatalities and injuries among novice drivers is available. However, information about the relative importance of individual components of GDL is lacking. The objectives of this study are to calculate a summary statistic of GDL effectiveness and to identify the most effective components of GDL programs using a meta-analytic approach. Data from 46 American States, the District of Columbia and 11 Canadian jurisdictions are used and were obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) for the U.S. and from Transport Canada's Traffic Accident Information Database (TRAID) for Canada. The timeframe of this evaluation is 1992 through 2006, inclusive. Relative fatality risks and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated using fatality counts and population data for target and comparison groups, both in a pre-implementation and post-implementation period in each jurisdiction. The target groups were 16-, 17-, 18- and 19-year-old drivers. The comparison group was 25-54-year-old drivers. The relative fatality risks of all jurisdictions were summarized using the random effects DerSimonian and Laird model. Meta-regression using Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling was also conducted. Strong evidence in support of GDL was found. GDL had a positive and significant impact on the relative fatality risk of 16-year-old drivers (reduction of 19.1%). Significant effects were found for meta-regression models with 16-, 18- and 19-year-old drivers. These effects include length of night restriction in the learner stage, country, driver education in the learner stage and in the intermediate stage, whether night restrictions are lifted in the intermediate stage for work purposes, passenger restriction in the intermediate stage, whether passenger restrictions in the intermediate stage are lifted if passengers are family members, and whether there is an exit test in the intermediate stage. In conclusion, several GDL program components have an important effect on the relative fatality risk of novice drivers. These results help understand how such effects are achieved.

What can we learn about North Dakota's youngest drivers from their crashes?

For North Dakota teens, three of every four deaths are from motor vehicle crashes. Injury crash records for teen drivers were studied to gain insight regarding driver, vehicle, and road factors for public safety policy and program discussions. Results show 14-year-old drivers are three times more likely to die or be disabled in an injury crash than 17-year-old drivers, and that male drivers are 30% less likely to incur severe injury. As expected, seat belt use is a critical factor in severe injury avoidance. The likelihood for death or disablement is 165% greater for unbelted teen drivers than for those who are properly belted. In addition, rural and gravel roads pose a risk. Teens are six times more likely to be severely injured in crashes on rural roads than on urban roads. Findings suggest that an increased licensing age and seat belt emphasis may reduce teen traffic injuries in the state. In addition, more information on exposure should be attained to better understand rural and gravel road as risks.

How much can you drink before driving? The influence of riding with impaired adults and peers on the driving behaviors of urban and rural youth

AIMS

Following an ecological model to specify risks for impaired driving, we assessed the effects of youth attitudes about substance use and their experiences of riding in cars with adults and peers who drove after drinking alcohol or smoking cannabis on the youths' own driving after drinking or using cannabis.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Participants were 2594 students in grades 10 and 12 (mean age = 16 years and 2 months; 50% girls) from public high schools in urban (994) and rural communities (1600) on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada; 1192 of these were new drivers with restricted licenses. Self-report data were collected in anonymous questionnaires. Regression analyses were used to assess the independent and interacting effects of youth attitudes about substance use and their experiences of riding in cars with adults or peers who drove after drinking alcohol or smoking cannabis on youth driving.

FINDINGS

Youth driving risk behaviors were associated independently with their own high-risk attitudes and experiences riding with peers who drink alcohol or use cannabis and drive. However, risks were highest for the youth who also report more frequent experiences of riding with adults who drink alcohol or use cannabis and drive.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention efforts should be expanded to include the adults and peers who are role models for new drivers and to increase youths' awareness of their own responsibilities for their personal safety as passengers.

Graduated driver licensing: review of evaluation results since 2002

Unintentional injury from motor-vehicle crashes is the number one cause of death among teenagers in the United States. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems for young novice drivers. Since a previous review of U.S. GDL evaluation results, many more U.S. states and Canadian provinces have implemented GDL and/or had enough time pass that additional evaluation results are now available. Twenty-one studies of GDL within 14 individual jurisdictions, and six studies of GDL in the U.S. nationwide, were collected, reviewed, and summarized. Positive results (usually crash reductions) of varying degrees were reported from nearly all the studies. Given differences in approaches, study goals, methods, and analyses, the results are surprisingly consistent. Overall, GDL programs have reduced the youngest drivers' crash risk by roughly 20 to 40%. Research on teen driving and comprehensive GDL enhancements could further reduce teen drivers' motor-vehicle crashes, injuries, and fatalities.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

Policy-makers, as well as the motor vehicle, insurance, and other industries have been involved in teen driving safety and could enhance and coordinate their roles.

Novice teen driving: GDL and beyond

The Symposium on Novice Teen Driving: GDL and Beyond--Research Foundations for Policy and Practice, held in Tucson, AZ, on February 5-7, 2007, provided a detailed overview of graduated driver licensing (GDL) and other beginning driver issues in the United States. This paper summarizes the information presented at the Symposium and in its background papers.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

This information and summary should help all interested persons and organizations, including industry, in their efforts to improve GDL and teen driver programs in the United States, which in turn will further reduce traffic crashes and fatalities involving teenage drivers.