Improving traffic safety: conceptual considerations for successful action

Road traffic accident severity analysis: A census-based study in China

BACKGROUND

In China, despite the decrease in average road traffic fatalities per capita, the fatality rate and injury rate have been increasing until 2015.

PURPOSE

This study aims to analyze the road traffic accident severity in China from a macro viewpoint and various aspects and illuminate several key causal factors. From these analyses, we propose possible countermeasures to reduce accident severity.

METHOD

The severity of traffic accidents is measured by human damage (HD) and case fatality rate (CFR). Different categorizations of national road traffic census data are analyzed to evaluate the severity of different types of accidents and further to demonstrate the key factors that contribute to the increase in accident severity. Regional data from selected major municipalities and provinces are also compared with national traffic census data to verify data consistency.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2016, the overall CFR and HD of road accidents in China have increased by 19.0% and 63.7%, respectively. In 2016, CFR of freight vehicles is 33.5% higher than average; late-night accidents are more fatal than those that occur at other periods. The speeding issue is severely becoming worse. In 2000, its CFR is only 5.3% higher than average, while in 2016, the number is 42.0%. Conclusion and practical implementation: A growing trend of accident severity was found to be contrasting to the decline of road traffic accidents. From the analysis of casual factors, it was confirmed that the release way of the impact energy and the protection worn by the victims are key variables contributing to the severity of road traffic accidents.

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

METHODS

In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957-2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

RESULTS

Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.