Development of pedestrian- and vehicle-related safety performance functions using Bayesian bivariate hierarchical models with mode-specific covariates

A ward level analysis of child pedestrian casualty frequencies in Greater London

INTRODUCTION

Child pedestrian safety remains a challenge despite the remarkable progress that has been attained in recent years, particularly, in high income jurisdictions such as London. This study sought to identify and quantify the magnitude of the effects of various explanatory variables, from the domains of transport, built and natural environment, socio-demographic and economic factors, on ward level child pedestrian injury frequencies in Greater London.

METHOD

We adopted a multilevel random parameters model to investigate the factors associated with child pedestrian injuries given the hierarchical nature of the data comprising of wards nested within boroughs.

RESULTS

We found that crime, the Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) population, school enrollment, and the proportion of the population who walk five times a week had an increasing effect on the number of child pedestrian casualties. Conversely, the proportion of the population with a level 4 qualification and the number of cars per household had a decreasing effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified high child pedestrian injury frequency wards and boroughs: Stratford and New Town had the highest expected child pedestrian injury frequencies followed by Selhurst, Westend, and Greenford Broadway. Some inner London boroughs are among the highest injury frequency areas; however, a higher number of high child pedestrian injury boroughs are in outer London.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

The paper provides recommendations for policy makers for targeted child pedestrian safety improvement interventions and prioritization to optimize the utilization of often constrained resources. The study also highlights the importance of considering social inequities in policies that aim at improving child traffic safety.