Analysis of the Usefulness of the WORSEN Score for Predicting the Deterioration of Acute Ischemic Stroke

Relative score of early neurological deterioration in perforator artery infarction: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Compared to small vessel occlusion (SVO) patients, branch atheromatous disease (BAD) patients are more likely to develop early neurological deterioration (END). Stroke patients with END have a poor prognosis. Initial clinical features/radiological findings are often insufficient to distinguish between BAD and SVO; therefore, they may not detect END. In this retrospective study, we investigated relative factors for END in perforator artery infarction and created a scoring system for END in these patients.

METHODS

We extracted data from stroke patients with perforator artery infarction admitted to the Department of Neurology at Juntendo University between January 2016 and December 2022. We examined factors, such as the presence of SVO and BAD, leading to END. Variables with a P-value < 0.1 on univariate analysis were entered into binominal logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 1,420 stroke patients admitted over a 7-year period, 201 with perforator infarction were included in this study. END was found in 27 of 201 patients (13.4%). Binominal logistic regression analysis of background factors less than p < 0.1 revealed that age > 69 (P = 0.032; odds ratio [OR], 3.941; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.126-13.769), body mass index < 23.8 (P = 0.041; OR, 3.183; 95%CI, 1.049-9.654), and pretreatment with anti-platelets (P = 0.003; OR, 5.183; 95%CI, 1.783-15.071) were significant factors. Regarding anti-platelet therapy, END was observed in 34.4% of patients administered aspirin and 35.0% administered clopidogrel. Initial infarct lesion size over 15 mm on initial MRI had a P value of 0.076 in univariate analysis and an odds ratio of 1.330 (95% CI 0.471-3.755; P = 0.590) in binomial logistic regression analysis. The length of stay and modified Rankin Scale at discharge were significantly exacerbated in the END group. Creating a scoring system with 1 point for each relevant factor (pEND score), significant correlations were obtained with ROC curves, and over 2 points produced the highest sensitivity and specificity for detecting END.

CONCLUSION

Patients with high pEND scores may require intensive care from early hospitalization. In addition, the occurrence of stroke during anti-platelet therapy suggests the need for alternative treatment.

Predictive Modeling of Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Ischaemic stroke is the leading cause of death worldwide, and early neurological deterioration(END) occurs in 20%-40% of patients, which is the main cause of severe neurological deficits and disability, and even increased mortality. The occurrence of END is closely related to the poor prognosis of the patients, so it is important to identify the risk factors for the occurrence of END in patients with AIS and target intervention at an early stage factors and targeted intervention is of great significance.

METHODS

Up to December 20, 2023, a comprehensive search was conducted across PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, MedLine, and The Cochrane Library for studies focusing on predictive models for END in acute stroke patients. Included studies either developed or validated predictive models. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment tool was utilized to assess bias in these prediction models. Pooled area under the curve values were calculated using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies, each presenting an original model, were identified. Predominantly constructed through logistic multiple regression, these models demonstrated robust predictive performance (area under the curve ≥0.80). Key predictors of END in acute ischemic stroke patients included blood glucose levels, baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale scores, extent of cerebral infarction, and stenosis in the carotid and middle cerebral arteries.

DISCUSSION

Clinical practitioners should closely monitor high-frequency predictors of END in patients. However, the varying quality of current models necessitates the selection of models that balance performance with operational simplicity in clinical practice.

Early neurological deterioration in patients with acute ischemic stroke is linked to unfavorable cerebral venous outflow

INTRODUCTION

Early neurological deterioration (END) is associated with poor outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (AIS-LVO). Causes of END after mechanical thrombectomy (MT) include unsuccessful recanalization and reperfusion hemorrhages. However, little is known about END excluding the aforementioned causes. We aimed to investigate factors associated with unexplained END (ENDunexplained) with regard to the cerebral collateral status.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Multicenter retrospective study of AIS-LVO patients with successful MT (mTICI 2b-3). On admission CT angiography (CTA), pial arterial collaterals and venous outflow (VO) were assessed using the modified Tan-Scale and the Cortical Vein Opacification Score (COVES), respectively. ENDunexplained was defined as an increase in NIHSS score of ⩾ 4 within the first 24 hours after MT without parenchymal hemorrhage on follow-up imaging. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to examine factors of ENDunexplained and unfavorable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3-6).

RESULTS

A total of 620 patients met the inclusion criteria. ENDunexplained occurred in 10% of patients. While there was no significant difference in pial arterial collaterals, patients with ENDunexplained exhibited more often unfavorable VO (81% vs. 53%; P < 0.001). Unfavorable VO (aOR [95% CI]; 2.56 [1.02-6.40]; P = 0.045) was an independent predictor of ENDunexplained. ENDunexplained was independently associated with unfavorable functional outcomes at 90 days (aOR [95% CI]; 6.25 [2.06-18.94]; P = 0.001).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Unfavorable VO on admission CTA was associated with ENDunexplained. ENDunexplained was independently linked to unfavorable functional outcomes at 90 days. Identifying AIS-LVO patients at risk of ENDunexplained may help to select patients for intensified monitoring and guide to optimal treatment regimes.

Post-thrombolysis early neurological deterioration occurs with or without hemorrhagic transformation in acute cerebral infarction: risk factors, prediction model and prognosis

Objectives

Early neurological deterioration (END) after ischemic stroke is a severe clinical event and can be caused by hemorrhagic and ischemic injury. We studied the difference between the risk factors of END occurs with or without hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis.

Materials and methods

Consecutive cerebral infarction patients who underwent intravenous thrombolysis from 2017 to 2020 in our hospital were retrospectively recruited. END was defined as a ≥2 points increase on 24-h National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score after therapy compared with the best neurological status after thrombolysis and divided into two types based on the computed tomography (CT): symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ENDh) and non-hemorrhagic factors (ENDn). Potential risk factors of ENDh and ENDn were assessed by multiple logistic regression and applied to establish the prediction model.

Results

A total of 195 patients were included. In multivariate analysis, the previous history of cerebral infarction (odds ratio [OR],15.19; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.43-161.17; P = 0.025), previous history of atrial fibrillation (OR,8.43; 95%CI,1.09-65.44; P = 0.043), higher baseline NIHSS score (OR,1.19; 95%CI,1.03-1.39; P = 0.022) and higher alanine transferase level (OR,1.05; 95%CI, 1.01-1.10; P = 0.016) were independently associated with ENDh. While higher systolic blood pressure (OR,1.03; 95%CI,1.01-1.05; P = 0.004), higher baseline NIHSS score (OR,1.13; 95%CI,2.86-27.43; P < 0.000) and large artery occlusion (OR,8.85, 95%CI,2.86-27.43; P < 0.000) were independent risk factors of ENDn. The prediction model showed good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of ENDn.

Conclusions

There are differences between the major contributors to ENDh and ENDn, while a severe stroke can increase the occurrence of both sides.

Multiple chronic lacunes predicting early neurological deterioration and long-term functional outcomes according to TOAST classification in acute ischemic stroke

INTRODUCTION

Studies regarding multiple chronic lacunes (MCLs) and clinical outcome according to stroke etiology are scarce. We sought to evaluate the association between MCL and short-term/long-term clinical outcomes according to stroke etiology.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analyzed a prospectively collected stroke registry of acute ischemic stroke patients over 4 years. The enrolled patients were classified as having large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), small vessel occlusion (SVO), cardioembolic (CE) stroke, and other etiology. The early neurological deterioration (END) and favorable outcome at 3 months were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 1070 patients were enrolled. Patients with MCL had significantly more END compared to those without MCL both in total population (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5; p = 0.013*) and in the LAA group (adjusted OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3-4.2, p < 0.006). Patients with MCL had a significantly lower OR for favorable outcome at 3 months compared to those without MCL both in total population (adjusted OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-1.0, p = 0.035) and in the LAA group (adjusted OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-1.0, p = 0.043). However, MCL was not associated with END or long-term functional outcome in patients with SVO, CE, or other etiology.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of MCL was an independent predictive factor for END as well as long-term poor functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients. These associations were only observed in patients with LAA, not in those with SVO, CE, or other etiology.

Predictive Model of Early Neurological Deterioration in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a predictive model of early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

The present retrospective cohort study considered patients with AIS who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Shenzhen, China between January 2014 and December 2018. An increase of 2 points or more on the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 7 days indicated END. We selected baseline clinical, laboratory, and neuroimaging variables to construct predictive models through multivariate logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 391 patients with AIS were enrolled in the study. END was observed in 64 (16.4%) cases. A prediction model developed from the initial NIHSS score, middle cerebral artery stenosis, and carotid stenosis of≥ 50% showed good discriminative ability: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.870 (95%CI, 0.813-0.911); threshold, -1.570; specificity, 84.40%; sensitivity, 75.00%; positive predictive value, 48.48%; and a negative predictive value, 94.52%.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive model developed from the initial NIHSS score, middle cerebral artery stenosis, and carotid stenosis of ≥ 50% could identify patients with AIS who were at risk of developing END. The model requires validation by larger studies performed at other institutions.

Risk factors for in-hospital mortality among acute ischemic stroke patients in China: a nationwide prospective study

Objective: We aimed to investigate factors related to in-hospital mortality (IHM) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients.Methods: We prospectively investigated 827,314 patients who were admitted within 7 days of AIS between August 2015 and July 2019. Demographic characteristics, risk factors, and clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors associated with IHM.Results: The IHM rate in this study was 0.5% in women and 0.3% in men. Factors associated with IHM in AIS included diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.43), female (OR 0.84, 95%CI 0.74-0.96), hypertension (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.34), atrial fib/flutter (OR 1.51, 95%CI 1.29-1.77), other heart disease (OR1.43, 95%CI 1.23-1.67), prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.54-2.60), antiplatelet therapies (OR 0.71, 95%CI 0.60-0.84), gastrointestinal bleeding (OR 3.54, 95%CI 2.83-4.44), pulmonary embolism (OR 2.53, 95%CI1.41-4.53), dysphagia(OR7.32, 95%CI6.23-8.61), glycosylated hemoglobin (OR1.05, 95%CI 1.02-1.09), serum creatinine (OR 1.001, 95%CI 1.001-1.002), urea nitrogen (OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.08-1.12), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (4-5 vs. 0-4: OR 3.58; ≥15 vs. 0-4: OR 8.78), stroke rehabilitation (OR 0.27, 95%CI 0.23-0.30), age (third IQR vs. first IQR: OR 1.57; fourth IQR vs. first IQR: OR 2.23), and in-hospital stroke/TIArecurrence (OR 2.38, 95%CI 2.03-2.78).Conclusions: The findings from this study may help clinicians control the risk of IHM better for patients with AIS.

External Validation of the WORSEN Score for Prediction the Deterioration of Acute Ischemic Stroke in a Chinese Population

Background: Early neurological deterioration (END) has been recognized as a serious neurological complication after acute ischemic stroke. However, to date, the WORSEN score was the only one scoring system specifically developed to detect END events in acute ischemic stroke patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the WORSEN score's utility in China, and to determine the potential predictors of END in acute stroke patients. Methods: Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology, Aerospace Center Hospital between March 2015 to February 2017 were recruited into the study's cohort and divided into two groups: patients with and without END. END was defined as either an increase in two or more NIHSS points, an increment of at least one point in motor power or a description of fluctuating of clinical symptoms in medical reports during the first 7 days after admission. Severe END was defined as an increase of NIHSS ≥ 4 points from baseline during the first 7 days after admission. Results: Three hundred fifty four patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled in the present study and 67.5% were male. END occurred in 90 of these patients and severe END occurred in 55 of these patients. Logistic regression analysis showed that an initial NIHSS score ≥8, diameter of infarction, striatocapsular infarction, and TOAST type of large arterial atherosclerosis were independent predictors for END. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the WORSEN score for the prediction of END was 0.80 (95%CI 0.75-0.84), with a sensitivity of 62.22%, a specificity of 88.26%, positive predictive values of 64.37% and negative predictive values of 87.27%. Meanwhile, the AUC of the WORSEN score for the prediction of severe END was 0.82 (95%CI 0.78-0.86), with a sensitivity of 70.91%, specificity of 83.95%, positive predictive values of 44.83% and negative predictive values of 94.01%. Conclusion: END is a relatively common neurological complication in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Our findings showed that the WORSEN score had a good predictive value for identifying patients with END in a Chinese population. Moving forward, multi-center studies are required for further validations.

Early administration of tirofiban after urokinase-mediated intravenous thrombolysis reduces early neurological deterioration in patients with branch atheromatous disease

Objectives

To investigate the effects of early administration of tirofiban after intravenous thrombolysis on early neurological deterioration in patients with branch atheromatous disease.

Methods

We analyzed clinical data from patients with branch atheromatous disease. We enrolled seven cases into the urokinase-only (UO) control group and 10 cases into the urokinase + tirofiban (UT) treatment group. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores were obtained at admission and on days 3 and 5 after admission. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were obtained 3 months after admission.

Results

Significant differences between the UO and UT groups were evident on days 3 and 5 after admission. In the UT group, there was a significant difference between NIHSS scores at admission and on day 5, while there were no significant differences in scores in the UO group. The early neurological deterioration rates were not significantly different between the two groups. However, there were significant differences in these rates at 72 and 120 hours. Both the mRS scores and the prognoses at 3 months differed between the two groups.

Conclusion

Early administration of tirofiban after urokinase-mediated intravenous thrombolysis reduces early neurological deterioration and improves the long-term prognosis of patients with branch atheromatous disease.

Early Motor-Behavioral Outcome of Ischemic Stroke with Ketogenic Diet Preconditioning: Interventional Animal Study

BACKGROUND

Cerebral stroke, with ischemic stroke being its most common type, is the leading cause of chronic disability. The ketogenic diet has been used for treating seizures for centuries and has been considered to be a treatment for other neurologic diseases in recent years. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of ketogenic diet preconditioning on the early motor-behavior outcome of rats with induced cerebral ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Twenty-four rats were surveyed in 3 groups of Main, Control, and Sham. The Main group received a ketogenic diet plus medium chain triglyceride oil starting 3 days prior to stroke induction, while the other 2 groups took a normal diet. Subsequently, Endothelin-1 was injected stereotactically near the middle cerebral artery to induce an ischemic stroke in the Main and Control group. Normal saline was injected to the members of the Sham group with the same technique. The motor-behavior functions of the rats were compared between 3 groups using adjusting step, beam, and cylinder tests.

RESULTS

After stroke induction, rats on ketogenic diet were able to adjust their steps more efficiently, moved faster on the beam, and used their hands more symmetrically in the transparent cylinder in relation to the rats in the Control group.

CONCLUSION

It seems that ketogenic diet preconditioning improves the early motor-behavioral outcome of ischemic stroke.

The JAGUAR Score Predicts 1-Month Disability/Death in Ischemic Stroke Patient Ineligible for Recanalization Therapy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Most available scoring system to predict outcome after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) were established in Western countries. We aimed to develop a simple prediction score of 1-month severe disability/death after onset in AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy based on readily and widely obtainable on-admission clinical, laboratory and radiological examinations in Asian developing countries.

METHODS

Using the Shiga Stroke Registry, a large population-based registry in Japan, multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted in 1617 AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy to yield ß-coefficients of significant predictors of 1-month modified Rankin Scale score of 5-6, which were then multiplied by a specific constant and rounded to nearest integer to develop 0-10 points system. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the original and bootstrapped population.

RESULTS

Japan Coma Scale score (J), age (A), random glucose (G), untimely onset-to-arrival time (U), atrial fibrillation (A), and preadmission dependency status according to the modified Rankin Scale score (R), were recognized as independent predictors of outcome. Each of their β-coefficients was multiplied by 1.3 creating the JAGUAR score. Its area under the curve (95% confidence interval) was .901 (.880- .922) and .901 (.900- .901) in the original and bootstrapped population, respectively. It was found to have good calibration in both study population (P = .27).

CONCLUSIONS

The JAGUAR score can be an important prediction tool of severe disability/death in AIS patients ineligible for recanalization therapy that can be applied on admission with no complicated calculation and multimodal neuroimaging necessary, thus suitable for Asian developing countries.