The route of HIV escape from immune response targeting multiple sites is determined by the cost-benefit tradeoff of escape mutations.
PLoS Comput Biol 2014;
10:e1003878. [PMID:
25356981 PMCID:
PMC4214571 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003878]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2013] [Accepted: 08/21/2014] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) are a major factor in the control of HIV replication. CTL arise in acute infection, causing escape mutations to spread rapidly through the population of infected cells. As a result, the virus develops partial resistance to the immune response. The factors controlling the order of mutating epitope sites are currently unknown and would provide a valuable tool for predicting conserved epitopes. In this work, we adapt a well-established mathematical model of HIV evolution under dynamical selection pressure from multiple CTL clones to include partial impairment of CTL recognition, , as well as cost to viral replication, . The process of escape is described in terms of the cost-benefit tradeoff of escape mutations and predicts a trajectory in the cost-benefit plane connecting sequentially escaped sites, which moves from high recognition loss/low fitness cost to low recognition loss/high fitness cost and has a larger slope for early escapes than for late escapes. The slope of the trajectory offers an interpretation of positive correlation between fitness costs and HLA binding impairment to HLA-A molecules and a protective subset of HLA-B molecules that was observed for clinically relevant escape mutations in the Pol gene. We estimate the value of from published experimental studies to be in the range (0.01–0.86) and show that the assumption of complete recognition loss () leads to an overestimate of mutation cost. Our analysis offers a consistent interpretation of the commonly observed pattern of escape, in which several escape mutations are observed transiently in an epitope. This non-nested pattern is a combined effect of temporal changes in selection pressure and partial recognition loss. We conclude that partial recognition loss is as important as fitness loss for predicting the order of escapes and, ultimately, for predicting conserved epitopes that can be targeted by vaccines.
Like many viruses, HIV has evolved mechanisms to evade the host immune response. As early as a few weeks after infection is initiated, mutations appear in the viral genome that reduce the ability of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) to control virus replication. However, of the many mutations in the viral genome that could potentially mediate viral escape from the CTL response, a specific subset are typically observed. This suggests that some mutations either entail too high a fitness cost for the virus, or are relatively inefficient escape mutations. A successful vaccine would target the CTL response to these regions in such a way that escape would not be possible. We use a computational model of HIV infection in order to study the factors that determine whether a given escape mutation will occur, how long it will be maintained in the population, and how these changes in the viral genome will affect the CTL response. Our analysis highlights the important role of partial recognition loss conferred by a mutation in producing the complex dynamics of escape that are observed during the course of infection.
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