Exact results for amplitude spectra of fitness landscapes

Virus Evolution on Fitness Landscapes

The landscape paradigm is revisited in the light of evolution in simple systems. A brief overview of different classes of fitness landscapes is followed by a more detailed discussion of the RNA model, which is currently the only evolutionary model that allows for a comprehensive molecular analysis of a fitness landscape. Neutral networks of genotypes are indispensable for the success of evolution. Important insights into the evolutionary mechanism are gained by considering the topology of sequence and shape spaces. The dynamic concept of molecular quasispecies is viewed in the light of the landscape paradigm. The distribution of fitness values in state space is mirrored by the population structures of mutant distributions. Two classes of thresholds for replication error or mutations are important: (i) the-conventional-genotypic error threshold, which separates ordered replication from random drift on neutral networks, and (ii) a phenotypic error threshold above which the molecular phenotype is lost. Empirical landscapes are reviewed and finally, the implications of the landscape concept for virus evolution are discussed.

Higher-order epistasis and phenotypic prediction

One core goal of genetics is to systematically understand the mapping between the DNA sequence of an organism (genotype) and its measurable characteristics (phenotype). Understanding this mapping is often challenging because of interactions between mutations, where the result of combining several different mutations can be very different than the sum of their individual effects. Here we provide a statistical framework for modeling complex genetic interactions of this type. The key idea is to ask how fast the effects of mutations change when introducing the same mutation in increasingly distant genetic backgrounds. We then propose a model for phenotypic prediction that takes into account this tendency for the effects of mutations to be more similar in nearby genetic backgrounds.

Contemporary high-throughput mutagenesis experiments are providing an increasingly detailed view of the complex patterns of genetic interaction that occur between multiple mutations within a single protein or regulatory element. By simultaneously measuring the effects of thousands of combinations of mutations, these experiments have revealed that the genotype–phenotype relationship typically reflects not only genetic interactions between pairs of sites but also higher-order interactions among larger numbers of sites. However, modeling and understanding these higher-order interactions remains challenging. Here we present a method for reconstructing sequence-to-function mappings from partially observed data that can accommodate all orders of genetic interaction. The main idea is to make predictions for unobserved genotypes that match the type and extent of epistasis found in the observed data. This information on the type and extent of epistasis can be extracted by considering how phenotypic correlations change as a function of mutational distance, which is equivalent to estimating the fraction of phenotypic variance due to each order of genetic interaction (additive, pairwise, three-way, etc.). Using these estimated variance components, we then define an empirical Bayes prior that in expectation matches the observed pattern of epistasis and reconstruct the genotype–phenotype mapping by conducting Gaussian process regression under this prior. To demonstrate the power of this approach, we present an application to the antibody-binding domain GB1 and also provide a detailed exploration of a dataset consisting of high-throughput measurements for the splicing efficiency of human pre-mRNA 5′ splice sites, for which we also validate our model predictions via additional low-throughput experiments.

On the sparsity of fitness functions and implications for learning

The properties of proteins and other biological molecules are encoded in large part in the sequence of amino acids or nucleotides that defines them. Increasingly, researchers estimate functions that map sequences to a particular property using machine learning and related statistical approaches. However, an important question remains unanswered: How many experimental measurements are needed in order to accurately learn these “fitness” functions? We leverage perspectives from the fields of biophysics, evolutionary biology, and signal processing to develop a theoretical framework that enables us to make progress on answering this question. We demonstrate that this framework can be used to make useful calculations on real-world data and suggest how these calculations may be used to guide experiments.

Fitness functions map biological sequences to a scalar property of interest. Accurate estimation of these functions yields biological insight and sets the foundation for model-based sequence design. However, the fitness datasets available to learn these functions are typically small relative to the large combinatorial space of sequences; characterizing how much data are needed for accurate estimation remains an open problem. There is a growing body of evidence demonstrating that empirical fitness functions display substantial sparsity when represented in terms of epistatic interactions. Moreover, the theory of Compressed Sensing provides scaling laws for the number of samples required to exactly recover a sparse function. Motivated by these results, we develop a framework to study the sparsity of fitness functions sampled from a generalization of the NK model, a widely used random field model of fitness functions. In particular, we present results that allow us to test the effect of the Generalized NK (GNK) model’s interpretable parameters—sequence length, alphabet size, and assumed interactions between sequence positions—on the sparsity of fitness functions sampled from the model and, consequently, the number of measurements required to exactly recover these functions. We validate our framework by demonstrating that GNK models with parameters set according to structural considerations can be used to accurately approximate the number of samples required to recover two empirical protein fitness functions and an RNA fitness function. In addition, we show that these GNK models identify important higher-order epistatic interactions in the empirical fitness functions using only structural information.

Global epistasis emerges from a generic model of a complex trait

Epistasis between mutations can make adaptation contingent on evolutionary history. Yet despite widespread ‘microscopic’ epistasis between the mutations involved, microbial evolution experiments show consistent patterns of fitness increase between replicate lines. Recent work shows that this consistency is driven in part by global patterns of diminishing-returns and increasing-costs epistasis, which make mutations systematically less beneficial (or more deleterious) on fitter genetic backgrounds. However, the origin of this ‘global’ epistasis remains unknown. Here, we show that diminishing-returns and increasing-costs epistasis emerge generically as a consequence of pervasive microscopic epistasis. Our model predicts a specific quantitative relationship between the magnitude of global epistasis and the stochastic effects of microscopic epistasis, which we confirm by reanalyzing existing data. We further show that the distribution of fitness effects takes on a universal form when epistasis is widespread and introduce a novel fitness landscape model to show how phenotypic evolution can be repeatable despite sequence-level stochasticity.

Minimum epistasis interpolation for sequence-function relationships

Massively parallel phenotyping assays have provided unprecedented insight into how multiple mutations combine to determine biological function. While such assays can measure phenotypes for thousands to millions of genotypes in a single experiment, in practice these measurements are not exhaustive, so that there is a need for techniques to impute values for genotypes whose phenotypes have not been directly assayed. Here, we present an imputation method based on inferring the least epistatic possible sequence-function relationship compatible with the data. In particular, we infer the reconstruction where mutational effects change as little as possible across adjacent genetic backgrounds. The resulting models can capture complex higher-order genetic interactions near the data, but approach additivity where data is sparse or absent. We apply the method to high-throughput transcription factor binding assays and use it to explore a fitness landscape for protein G.

Adaptive walks on high-dimensional fitness landscapes and seascapes with distance-dependent statistics

The dynamics of evolution is intimately shaped by epistasis - interactions between genetic elements which cause the fitness-effect of combinations of mutations to be non-additive. Analyzing evolutionary dynamics that involves large numbers of epistatic mutations is intrinsically difficult. A crucial feature is that the fitness landscape in the vicinity of the current genome depends on the evolutionary history. A key step is thus developing models that enable study of the effects of past evolution on future evolution. In this work, we introduce a broad class of high-dimensional random fitness landscapes for which the correlations between fitnesses of genomes are a general function of genetic distance. Their Gaussian character allows for tractable computational as well as analytic understanding. We study the properties of these landscapes focusing on the simplest evolutionary process: random adaptive (uphill) walks. Conventional measures of "ruggedness" are shown to not much affect such adaptive walks. Instead, the long-distance statistics of epistasis cause all properties to be highly conditional on past evolution, determining the statistics of the local landscape (the distribution of fitness-effects of available mutations and combinations of these), as well as the global geometry of evolutionary trajectories. In order to further explore the effects of conditioning on past evolution, we model the effects of slowly changing environments. At long times, such fitness "seascapes" cause a statistical steady state with highly intermittent evolutionary dynamics: populations undergo bursts of rapid adaptation, interspersed with periods in which adaptive mutations are rare and the population waits for more new directions to be opened up by changes in the environment. Finally, we discuss prospects for studying more complex evolutionary dynamics and on broader classes of high-dimensional landscapes and seascapes.

Evolving generalists in switching rugged landscapes

Evolving systems, be it an antibody repertoire in the face of mutating pathogens or a microbial population exposed to varied antibiotics, constantly search for adaptive solutions in time-varying fitness landscapes. Generalists refer to genotypes that remain fit across diverse selective pressures; while multi-drug resistant microbes are undesired yet prevalent, broadly-neutralizing antibodies are much wanted but rare. However, little is known about under what conditions such generalists with a high capacity to adapt can be efficiently discovered by evolution. In addition, can epistasis-the source of landscape ruggedness and path constraints-play a different role, if the environment varies in a non-random way? We present a generative model to estimate the propensity of evolving generalists in rugged landscapes that are tunably related and alternating relatively slowly. We find that environmental cycling can substantially facilitate the search for fit generalists by dynamically enlarging their effective basins of attraction. Importantly, these high performers are most likely to emerge at intermediate levels of ruggedness and environmental relatedness. Our approach allows one to estimate correlations across environments from the topography of experimental fitness landscapes. Our work provides a conceptual framework to study evolution in time-correlated complex environments, and offers statistical understanding that suggests general strategies for eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies or preventing microbes from evolving multi-drug resistance.

Average Fitness Differences on NK Landscapes

The average fitness difference between adjacent sites in a fitness landscape is an important descriptor that impacts in particular the dynamics of selection/mutation processes on the landscape. Of particular interest is its connection to the error threshold phenomenon. We show here that this parameter is intimately tied to the ruggedness through the landscape's amplitude spectrum. For the NK model, a surprisingly simple analytical estimate explains simulation data with high precision.

Long-term evolution on complex fitness landscapes when mutation is weak

Understanding evolution on complex fitness landscapes is difficult both because of the large dimensionality of sequence space and the stochasticity inherent to population-genetic processes. Here, I present an integrated suite of mathematical tools for understanding evolution on time-invariant fitness landscapes when mutations occur sufficiently rarely that the population is typically monomorphic and evolution can be modeled as a sequence of well-separated fixation events. The basic intuition behind this suite of tools is that surrounding any particular genotype lies a region of the fitness landscape that is easy to evolve to, while other pieces of the fitness landscape are difficult to evolve to (due to distance, being across a fitness valley, etc.). I propose a rigorous definition for this "dynamical neighborhood" of a genotype which captures several aspects of the distribution of waiting times to evolve from one genotype to another. The neighborhood structure of the landscape as a whole can be summarized as a matrix, and I show how this matrix can be used to approximate the expected waiting time for certain evolutionary events to occur and to provide an intuitive interpretation to existing formal results on the index of dispersion of the molecular clock.

Selection for Protein Stability Enriches for Epistatic Interactions

A now classical argument for the marginal thermodynamic stability of proteins explains the distribution of observed protein stabilities as a consequence of an entropic pull in protein sequence space. In particular, most sequences that are sufficiently stable to fold will have stabilities near the folding threshold. Here, we extend this argument to consider its predictions for epistatic interactions for the effects of mutations on the free energy of folding. Although there is abundant evidence to indicate that the effects of mutations on the free energy of folding are nearly additive and conserved over evolutionary time, we show that these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that a non-additive contribution to the folding free energy is essential for observed proteins to maintain their native structure. In particular, through both simulations and analytical results, we show that even very small departures from additivity are sufficient to drive this effect.

Unraveling the causes of adaptive benefits of synonymous mutations in TEM-1 β-lactamase

While synonymous mutations were long thought to be without phenotypic consequences, there is growing evidence they can affect gene expression, protein folding, and ultimately the fitness of an organism. In only a few cases have the mechanisms by which synonymous mutations affect the phenotype been elucidated. We previously identified 48 mutations in TEM-1 β-lactamase that increased resistance of Escherichia coli to cefotaxime, 10 of which were synonymous. To better understand the molecular mechanisms underlying the beneficial effect of these synonymous mutations, we made a series of measurements for a panel containing the 10 synonymous together with 10 non-synonymous mutations as a reference. Whereas messenger levels were unaffected, we found that total and functional TEM protein levels were higher for 5 out of 10 synonymous mutations. These observations suggest that some of these mutations act on translation or a downstream process. Similar effects were observed for some small-benefit non-synonymous mutations, suggesting a similar causal mechanism. For the synonymous mutations, we found that the cost of resistance scales with TEM protein levels. A resistance landscape for four synonymous mutations revealed strong epistasis: none of the combinations of mutations exceeded the resistance of the largest-effect mutation and there were synthetically neutral combinations. By considering combined effects of these mutations, we could infer that functional TEM protein level is a multi-dimensional phenotype. These results suggest that synonymous mutations may have beneficial effects by increasing the expression of an enzyme with low substrate activity, which may be realized via multiple, yet unknown, post-transcriptional mechanisms.

Evolution of high-level resistance during low-level antibiotic exposure

It has become increasingly clear that low levels of antibiotics present in many environments can select for resistant bacteria, yet the evolutionary pathways for resistance development during exposure to low amounts of antibiotics remain poorly defined. Here we show that Salmonella enterica exposed to sub-MIC levels of streptomycin evolved high-level resistance via novel mechanisms that are different from those observed during lethal selections. During lethal selection only rpsL mutations are found, whereas at sub-MIC selection resistance is generated by several small-effect resistance mutations that combined confer high-level resistance via three different mechanisms: (i) alteration of the ribosomal RNA target (gidB mutations), (ii) reduction in aminoglycoside uptake (cyoB, nuoG, and trkH mutations), and (iii) induction of the aminoglycoside-modifying enzyme AadA (znuA mutations). These results demonstrate how the strength of the selective pressure influences evolutionary trajectories and that even weak selective pressures can cause evolution of high-level resistance.

Evolution of high-level resistance during low-level antibiotic exposure

It has become increasingly clear that low levels of antibiotics present in many environments can select for resistant bacteria, yet the evolutionary pathways for resistance development during exposure to low amounts of antibiotics remain poorly defined. Here we show that Salmonella enterica exposed to sub-MIC levels of streptomycin evolved high-level resistance via novel mechanisms that are different from those observed during lethal selections. During lethal selection only rpsL mutations are found, whereas at sub-MIC selection resistance is generated by several small-effect resistance mutations that combined confer high-level resistance via three different mechanisms: (i) alteration of the ribosomal RNA target (gidB mutations), (ii) reduction in aminoglycoside uptake (cyoB, nuoG, and trkH mutations), and (iii) induction of the aminoglycoside-modifying enzyme AadA (znuA mutations). These results demonstrate how the strength of the selective pressure influences evolutionary trajectories and that even weak selective pressures can cause evolution of high-level resistance.

The Influence of Higher-Order Epistasis on Biological Fitness Landscape Topography

The effect of a mutation on the organism often depends on what other mutations are already present in its genome. Geneticists refer to such mutational interactions as epistasis. Pairwise epistatic effects have been recognized for over a century, and their evolutionary implications have received theoretical attention for nearly as long. However, pairwise epistatic interactions themselves can vary with genomic background. This is called higher-order epistasis, and its consequences for evolution are much less well understood. Here, we assess the influence that higher-order epistasis has on the topography of 16 published, biological fitness landscapes. We find that on average, their effects on fitness landscape declines with order, and suggest that notable exceptions to this trend may deserve experimental scrutiny. We conclude by highlighting opportunities for further theoretical and experimental work dissecting the influence that epistasis of all orders has on fitness landscape topography and on the efficiency of evolution by natural selection.

Inferring genetic interactions from comparative fitness data

Darwinian fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology. In practice, however, it is hardly possible to measure fitness for all genotypes in a natural population. Here, we present quantitative tools to make inferences about epistatic gene interactions when the fitness landscape is only incompletely determined due to imprecise measurements or missing observations. We demonstrate that genetic interactions can often be inferred from fitness rank orders, where all genotypes are ordered according to fitness, and even from partial fitness orders. We provide a complete characterization of rank orders that imply higher order epistasis. Our theory applies to all common types of gene interactions and facilitates comprehensive investigations of diverse genetic interactions. We analyzed various genetic systems comprising HIV-1, the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax, the fungus Aspergillus niger, and the TEM-family of β-lactamase associated with antibiotic resistance. For all systems, our approach revealed higher order interactions among mutations.

Enzyme Efficiency but Not Thermostability Drives Cefotaxime Resistance Evolution in TEM-1 β-Lactamase

A leading intellectual challenge in evolutionary genetics is to identify the specific phenotypes that drive adaptation. Enzymes offer a particularly promising opportunity to pursue this question, because many enzymes' contributions to organismal fitness depend on a comparatively small number of experimentally accessible properties. Moreover, on first principles the demands of enzyme thermostability stand in opposition to the demands of catalytic activity. This observation, coupled with the fact that enzymes are only marginally thermostable, motivates the widely held hypothesis that mutations conferring functional improvement require compensatory mutations to restore thermostability. Here, we explicitly test this hypothesis for the first time, using four missense mutations in TEM-1 β-lactamase that jointly increase cefotaxime Minimum Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) ∼1500-fold. First, we report enzymatic efficiency (kcat/KM) and thermostability (Tm, and thence ΔG of folding) for all combinations of these mutations. Next, we fit a quantitative model that predicts MIC as a function of kcat/KM and ΔG. While kcat/KM explains ∼54% of the variance in cefotaxime MIC (∼92% after log transformation), ΔG does not improve explanatory power of the model. We also find that cefotaxime MIC rises more slowly in kcat/KM than predicted. Several explanations for these discrepancies are suggested. Finally, we demonstrate substantial sign epistasis in MIC and kcat/KM, and antagonistic pleiotropy between phenotypes, in spite of near numerical additivity in the system. Thus constraints on selectively accessible trajectories, as well as limitations in our ability to explain such constraints in terms of underlying mechanisms are observed in a comparatively "well-behaved" system.

Detecting High-Order Epistasis in Nonlinear Genotype-Phenotype Maps

High-order epistasis has been observed in many genotype-phenotype maps. These multi-way interactions between mutations may be useful for dissecting complex traits and could have profound implications for evolution. Alternatively, they could be a statistical artifact. High-order epistasis models assume the effects of mutations should add, when they could in fact multiply or combine in some other nonlinear way. A mismatch in the “scale” of the epistasis model and the scale of the underlying map would lead to spurious epistasis. In this article, we develop an approach to estimate the nonlinear scales of arbitrary genotype-phenotype maps. We can then linearize these maps and extract high-order epistasis. We investigated seven experimental genotype-phenotype maps for which high-order epistasis had been reported previously. We find that five of the seven maps exhibited nonlinear scales. Interestingly, even after accounting for nonlinearity, we found statistically significant high-order epistasis in all seven maps. The contributions of high-order epistasis to the total variation ranged from 2.2 to 31.0%, with an average across maps of 12.7%. Our results provide strong evidence for extensive high-order epistasis, even after nonlinear scale is taken into account. Further, we describe a simple method to estimate and account for nonlinearity in genotype-phenotype maps.

Adaptation in protein fitness landscapes is facilitated by indirect paths

The structure of fitness landscapes is critical for understanding adaptive protein evolution. Previous empirical studies on fitness landscapes were confined to either the neighborhood around the wild type sequence, involving mostly single and double mutants, or a combinatorially complete subgraph involving only two amino acids at each site. In reality, the dimensionality of protein sequence space is higher (20^L) and there may be higher-order interactions among more than two sites. Here we experimentally characterized the fitness landscape of four sites in protein GB1, containing 20⁴ = 160,000 variants. We found that while reciprocal sign epistasis blocked many direct paths of adaptation, such evolutionary traps could be circumvented by indirect paths through genotype space involving gain and subsequent loss of mutations. These indirect paths alleviate the constraint on adaptive protein evolution, suggesting that the heretofore neglected dimensions of sequence space may change our views on how proteins evolve.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16965.001

Proteins can evolve over time by changing their component parts, which are called amino acids. These changes usually happen one at a time and natural selection tends to preserve those changes that make the protein more efficient at its specific tasks, while discarding those that impair the protein’s activity. However the effect of each change depends on the protein as a whole, and so two changes that separately make the protein worse can make it much better if they occur together. This phenomenon is called epistasis and in some cases it can trap proteins in a sub-optimal form and prevent them from improving further.

Proteins are made from twenty different kinds of amino acid, and there are millions of different combinations of amino acids that could, in theory, make a protein of a given length. Studying protein evolution involves making variants of the same protein, each with just a few changes, and comparing how efficient, or “fit”, they are. Previous studies only measured the fitness of a few variants and showed that epistasis could block protein evolution by requiring the protein to lose some fitness before it could improve further. However, new techniques have now made it easier to study protein evolution by testing many more protein variants.

Wu, Dai et al. focused on four amino acids in part of a protein called GB1 and tested the efficiency of every possible combination of these four amino acids, a total of 160,000 (20⁴) variants. Contrary to expectations, the results suggested that the protein could evolve quickly to maximise fitness despite there being epistasis between the four amino acids. Overcoming epistasis typically involved making a change to one amino acid that paved the way for further changes while avoiding the need to lose fitness. The original change could then be reversed once the epistasis was overcome. The complexity of this solution means it can only be seen by studying a large number of protein variants that represent many alternative sequences of protein changes.

Wu, Dai et al. conclude that proteins are able to achieve a higher level of fitness through evolution by exploring a large number of changes. There are many possible changes for each protein and it is this variety that, despite epistasis, allows proteins to become naturally optimised for the tasks that they perform. While the full complexity of protein evolution cannot be explored at the moment, as technology advances it will become possible to study more protein variants. Such advances would therefore hopefully allow researchers to discover even more about the natural mechanisms of protein evolution.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16965.002

Greedy adaptive walks on a correlated fitness landscape

We study adaptation of a haploid asexual population on a fitness landscape defined over binary genotype sequences of length L. We consider greedy adaptive walks in which the population moves to the fittest among all single mutant neighbors of the current genotype until a local fitness maximum is reached. The landscape is of the rough mount Fuji type, which means that the fitness value assigned to a sequence is the sum of a random and a deterministic component. The random components are independent and identically distributed random variables, and the deterministic component varies linearly with the distance to a reference sequence. The deterministic fitness gradient c is a parameter that interpolates between the limits of an uncorrelated random landscape (c=0) and an effectively additive landscape (c→∞). When the random fitness component is chosen from the Gumbel distribution, explicit expressions for the distribution of the number of steps taken by the greedy walk are obtained, and it is shown that the walk length varies non-monotonically with the strength of the fitness gradient when the starting point is sufficiently close to the reference sequence. Asymptotic results for general distributions of the random fitness component are obtained using extreme value theory, and it is found that the walk length attains a non-trivial limit for L→∞, different from its values for c=0 and c=∞, if c is scaled with L in an appropriate combination.

Evolutionary dynamics of a polymorphic self-replicator population with a finite population size and hyper mutation rate

Self-replicating biomolecules, subject to experimental evolution, exhibit hyper mutation rates where the genotypes of most offspring have at least a one point mutation. Thus, we formulated the evolutionary dynamics of an asexual self-replicator population with a finite population size and hyper mutation rate, based on the probability density of fitnesses (fitness distribution) for the evolving population. As a case study, we used a Kauffman's "NK fitness landscape". We deduced recurrence relations for the first three cumulants of the fitness distribution and compared them with the results of computer simulations. We found that the evolutionary dynamics is classified in terms of two modes of selection: the "radical mode" and the "gentle mode". In the radical mode, only a small number of genotypes with the highest or near highest fitness values can leave offspring. In the gentle mode, genotypes with moderate fitness values can leave offspring. We clarified how the evolutionary equilibrium and climbing rate depend on given parameters such as gradient and ruggedness of the landscape, mutation rate and population size, in terms of the two modes of selection. Roughly, the radical mode conducts the fast climbing but attains to the stationary states with low fitness, while the gentle mode conducts the slow climbing but attains to the stationary states with high fitness.

Phase transition in random adaptive walks on correlated fitness landscapes

We study biological evolution on a random fitness landscape where correlations are introduced through a linear fitness gradient of strength c. When selection is strong and mutations rare the dynamics is a directed uphill walk that terminates at a local fitness maximum. We analytically calculate the dependence of the walk length on the genome size L. When the distribution of the random fitness component has an exponential tail, we find a phase transition of the walk length D between a phase at small c, where walks are short (D∼lnL), and a phase at large c, where walks are long (D∼L). For all other distributions only a single phase exists for any c>0. The considered process is equivalent to a zero temperature Metropolis dynamics for the random energy model in an external magnetic field, thus also providing insight into the aging dynamics of spin glasses.

Multidimensional epistasis and the transitory advantage of sex

Identifying and quantifying the benefits of sex and recombination is a long-standing problem in evolutionary theory. In particular, contradictory claims have been made about the existence of a benefit of recombination on high dimensional fitness landscapes in the presence of sign epistasis. Here we present a comparative numerical study of sexual and asexual evolutionary dynamics of haploids on tunably rugged model landscapes under strong selection, paying special attention to the temporal development of the evolutionary advantage of recombination and the link between population diversity and the rate of adaptation. We show that the adaptive advantage of recombination on static rugged landscapes is strictly transitory. At early times, an advantage of recombination arises through the possibility to combine individually occurring beneficial mutations, but this effect is reversed at longer times by the much more efficient trapping of recombining populations at local fitness peaks. These findings are explained by means of well-established results for a setup with only two loci. In accordance with the Red Queen hypothesis the transitory advantage can be prolonged indefinitely in fluctuating environments, and it is maximal when the environment fluctuates on the same time scale on which trapping at local optima typically occurs.

Adaptation in tunably rugged fitness landscapes: the rough Mount Fuji model

Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie's mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage.

Empirical fitness landscapes and the predictability of evolution

The genotype-fitness map (that is, the fitness landscape) is a key determinant of evolution, yet it has mostly been used as a superficial metaphor because we know little about its structure. This is now changing, as real fitness landscapes are being analysed by constructing genotypes with all possible combinations of small sets of mutations observed in phylogenies or in evolution experiments. In turn, these first glimpses of empirical fitness landscapes inspire theoretical analyses of the predictability of evolution. Here, we review these recent empirical and theoretical developments, identify methodological issues and organizing principles, and discuss possibilities to develop more realistic fitness landscape models.

Inferring fitness landscapes by regression produces biased estimates of epistasis

The genotype-fitness map plays a fundamental role in shaping the dynamics of evolution. However, it is difficult to directly measure a fitness landscape in practice, because the number of possible genotypes is astronomical. One approach is to sample as many genotypes as possible, measure their fitnesses, and fit a statistical model of the landscape that includes additive and pairwise interactive effects between loci. Here, we elucidate the pitfalls of using such regressions by studying artificial but mathematically convenient fitness landscapes. We identify two sources of bias inherent in these regression procedures, each of which tends to underestimate high fitnesses and overestimate low fitnesses. We characterize these biases for random sampling of genotypes as well as samples drawn from a population under selection in the Wright-Fisher model of evolutionary dynamics. We show that common measures of epistasis, such as the number of monotonically increasing paths between ancestral and derived genotypes, the prevalence of sign epistasis, and the number of local fitness maxima, are distorted in the inferred landscape. As a result, the inferred landscape will provide systematically biased predictions for the dynamics of adaptation. We identify the same biases in a computational RNA-folding landscape as well as regulatory sequence binding data treated with the same fitting procedure. Finally, we present a method to ameliorate these biases in some cases.

Should evolutionary geneticists worry about higher-order epistasis?

Natural selection drives evolving populations up the fitness landscape, the projection from nucleotide sequence space to organismal reproductive success. While it has long been appreciated that topographic complexities on fitness landscapes can arise only as a consequence of epistatic interactions between mutations, evolutionary genetics has mainly focused on epistasis between pairs of mutations. Here we propose a generalization to the classical population genetic treatment of pairwise epistasis that yields expressions for epistasis among arbitrary subsets of mutations of all orders (pairwise, three-way, etc.). Our approach reveals substantial higher-order epistasis in almost every published fitness landscape. Furthermore we demonstrate that higher-order epistasis is critically important in two systems we know best. We conclude that higher-order epistasis deserves empirical and theoretical attention from evolutionary geneticists.