Conditions for success of engineered underdominance gene drive systems

Making waves: Comparative analysis of gene drive spread characteristics in a continuous space model

With their ability to rapidly increase in frequency, gene drives can be used to modify or suppress target populations after an initial release of drive individuals. Recent advances have revealed many possibilities for different types of drives, and several of these have been realized in experiments. These drives have advantages and disadvantages related to their ease of construction, confinement and capacity to be used for modification or suppression. Though characteristics of these drives have been explored in modelling studies, assessment in continuous space environments has been limited, often focusing on outcomes rather than fundamental properties. Here, we conduct a comparative analysis of many different gene drive types that have the capacity to form a wave of advance in continuous space using individual-based simulations in continuous space. We evaluate the drive wave speed as a function of drive performance and ecological parameters, which reveals substantial differences between drive performance in panmictic versus spatial environments. In particular, we find that suppression drive waves are uniquely vulnerable to fitness costs and undesired CRISPR cleavage activity in embryos by maternal deposition. Some drives, however, retain robust performance even with widely varying efficiency parameters. To gain a better understanding of drive waves, we compare their panmictic performance and find that the rate of wild-type allele removal is correlated with drive wave speed, though this is also affected by other factors. Overall, our results provide a useful resource for understanding the performance of drives in spatially continuous environments, which may be most representative of potential drive deployment in many relevant scenarios.

Leveraging eco-evolutionary models for gene drive risk assessment

Engineered gene drives create potential for both widespread benefits and irreversible harms to ecosystems. CRISPR-based systems of allelic conversion have rapidly accelerated gene drive research across diverse taxa, putting field trials and their necessary risk assessments on the horizon. Dynamic process-based models provide flexible quantitative platforms to predict gene drive outcomes in the context of system-specific ecological and evolutionary features. Here, we synthesize gene drive dynamic modeling studies to highlight research trends, knowledge gaps, and emergent principles, organized around their genetic, demographic, spatial, environmental, and implementation features. We identify the phenomena that most significantly influence model predictions, discuss limitations of biological complexity and uncertainty, and provide insights to promote responsible development and model-assisted risk assessment of gene drives.

Harnessing Wolbachia cytoplasmic incompatibility alleles for confined gene drive: A modeling study

Wolbachia are maternally-inherited bacteria, which can spread rapidly in populations by manipulating reproduction. cifA and cifB are genes found in Wolbachia phage that are responsible for cytoplasmic incompatibility, the most common type of Wolbachia reproductive interference. In this phenomenon, no viable offspring are produced when a male with both cifA and cifB (or just cifB in some systems) mates with a female lacking cifA. Utilizing this feature, we propose new types of toxin-antidote gene drives that can be constructed with only these two genes in an insect genome, instead of the whole Wolbachia bacteria. By using both mathematical and simulation models, we found that a drive containing cifA and cifB together creates a confined drive with a moderate to high introduction threshold. When introduced separately, they act as a self-limiting drive. We observed that the performance of these drives is substantially influenced by various ecological parameters and drive characteristics. Extending our models to continuous space, we found that the drive individual release distribution has a critical impact on drive persistence. Our results suggest that these new types of drives based on Wolbachia transgenes are safe and flexible candidates for genetic modification of populations.

Applications of gene drive systems for population suppression of insect pests

Population suppression is an effective way for controlling insect pests and disease vectors, which cause significant damage to crop and spread contagious diseases to plants, animals and humans. Gene drive systems provide innovative opportunities for the insect pests population suppression by driving genes that impart fitness costs on populations of pests or disease vectors. Different gene-drive systems have been developed in insects and applied for their population suppression. Here, different categories of gene drives such as meiotic drive (MD), under-dominance (UD), homing endonuclease-based gene drive (HEGD) and especially the CRISPR/Cas9-based gene drive (CCGD) were reviewed, including the history, types, process and mechanisms. Furthermore, the advantages and limitations of applying different gene-drive systems to suppress the insect population were also summarized. This review provides a foundation for developing a specific gene-drive system for insect population suppression.

Modeling-informed Engineered Genetic Incompatibility strategies to overcome resistance in the invasive Drosophila suzukii

Engineered Genetic Incompatibility (EGI) is an engineered extreme underdominance genetic system wherein hybrid animals are not viable, functioning as a synthetic speciation event. There are several strategies in which EGI could be leveraged for genetic biocontrol of pest populations. We used an agent-based model of Drosophila suzukii (Spotted Wing Drosophila) to determine how EGI would fare with high rates of endemic genetic resistance alleles. We discovered a surprising failure mode wherein field-generated females convert an incompatible male release program into a population replacement gene drive. Local suppression could still be attained in two seasons by tailoring the release strategy to take advantage of this effect, or alternatively in one season by altering the genetic design of release agents. We show in this work that data from modeling can be utilized to recognize unexpected emergent phenomena and a priori inform genetic biocontrol treatment design to increase efficacy.

Design and analysis of CRISPR-based underdominance toxin-antidote gene drives

CRISPR gene drive systems offer a mechanism for transmitting a desirable transgene throughout a population for purposes ranging from vector-borne disease control to invasive species suppression. In this simulation study, we assess the performance of several CRISPR-based underdominance gene drive constructs employing toxin-antidote (TA) principles. These drives disrupt the wild-type version of an essential gene using a CRISPR nuclease (the toxin) while simultaneously carrying a recoded version of the gene (the antidote). Drives of this nature allow for releases that could be potentially confined to a desired geographic location. This is because such drives have a nonzero-invasion threshold frequency required for the drive to spread through the population. We model drives which target essential genes that are either haplosufficient or haplolethal, using nuclease promoters with expression restricted to the germline, promoters that additionally result in cleavage activity in the early embryo from maternal deposition, and promoters that have ubiquitous somatic expression. We also study several possible drive architectures, considering both "same-site" and "distant-site" systems, as well as several reciprocally targeting drives. Together, these drive variants provide a wide range of invasion threshold frequencies and options for both population modification and suppression. Our results suggest that CRISPR TA underdominance drive systems could allow for the design of flexible and potentially confinable gene drive strategies.

Novel combination of CRISPR-based gene drives eliminates resistance and localises spread

Invasive species are among the major driving forces behind biodiversity loss. Gene drive technology may offer a humane, efficient and cost-effective method of control. For safe and effective deployment it is vital that a gene drive is both self-limiting and can overcome evolutionary resistance. We present HD-ClvR in this modelling study, a novel combination of CRISPR-based gene drives that eliminates resistance and localises spread. As a case study, we model HD-ClvR in the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), which is an invasive pest in the UK and responsible for both biodiversity and economic losses. HD-ClvR combats resistance allele formation by combining a homing gene drive with a cleave-and-rescue gene drive. The inclusion of a self-limiting daisyfield gene drive allows for controllable localisation based on animal supplementation. We use both randomly mating and spatial models to simulate this strategy. Our findings show that HD-ClvR could effectively control a targeted grey squirrel population, with little risk to other populations. HD-ClvR offers an efficient, self-limiting and controllable gene drive for managing invasive pests.

Control of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes using gene drives

Gene drives are selfish genetic elements that can be re-designed to invade a population and they hold tremendous potential for the control of mosquitoes that transmit disease. Much progress has been made recently in demonstrating proof of principle for gene drives able to suppress populations of malarial mosquitoes, or to make them refractory to the Plasmodium parasites they transmit. This has been achieved using CRISPR-based gene drives. In this article, I will discuss the relative merits of this type of gene drive, as well as barriers to its technical development and to its deployment in the field as malaria control. This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Engineering the Composition and Fate of Wild Populations with Gene Drive

Insects play important roles as predators, prey, pollinators, recyclers, hosts, parasitoids, and sources of economically important products. They can also destroy crops; wound animals; and serve as vectors for plant, animal, and human diseases. Gene drive-a process by which genes, gene complexes, or chromosomes encoding specific traits are made to spread through wild populations, even if these traits result in a fitness cost to carriers-provides new opportunities for altering populations to benefit humanity and the environment in ways that are species specific and sustainable. Gene drive can be used to alter the genetic composition of an existing population, referred to as population modification or replacement, or to bring about population suppression or elimination. We describe technologies under consideration, progress that has been made, and remaining technological hurdles, particularly with respect to evolutionary stability and our ability to control the spread and ultimate fate of genes introduced into populations.

Split drive killer-rescue provides a novel threshold-dependent gene drive

A wide range of gene drive mechanisms have been proposed that are predicted to increase in frequency within a population even when they are deleterious to individuals carrying them. This also allows associated desirable genetic material ("cargo genes") to increase in frequency. Gene drives have garnered much attention for their potential use against a range of globally important problems including vector borne disease, crop pests and invasive species. Here we propose a novel gene drive mechanism that could be engineered using a combination of toxin-antidote and CRISPR components, each of which are already being developed for other purposes. Population genetics mathematical models are developed here to demonstrate the threshold-dependent nature of the proposed system and its robustness to imperfect homing, incomplete penetrance of toxins and transgene fitness costs, each of which are of practical significance given that real-world components inevitably have such imperfections. We show that although end-joining repair mechanisms may cause the system to break down, under certain conditions, it should persist over time scales relevant for genetic control programs. The potential of such a system to provide localised population suppression via sex ratio distortion or female-specific lethality is also explored. Additionally, we investigate the effect on introduction thresholds of adding an extra CRISPR base element, showing that this may either increase or decrease dependent on parameter context.

Adequacy and sufficiency evaluation of existing EFSA guidelines for the molecular characterisation, environmental risk assessment and post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified insects containing engineered gene drives

Advances in molecular and synthetic biology are enabling the engineering of gene drives in insects for disease vector/pest control. Engineered gene drives (that bias their own inheritance) can be designed either to suppress interbreeding target populations or modify them with a new genotype. Depending on the engineered gene drive system, theoretically, a genetic modification of interest could spread through target populations and persist indefinitely, or be restricted in its spread or persistence. While research on engineered gene drives and their applications in insects is advancing at a fast pace, it will take several years for technological developments to move to practical applications for deliberate release into the environment. Some gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have been tested experimentally in the laboratory, but none has been assessed in small-scale confined field trials or in open release trials as yet. There is concern that the deliberate release of GDMIs in the environment may have possible irreversible and unintended consequences. As a proactive measure, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has been requested by the European Commission to review whether its previously published guidelines for the risk assessment of genetically modified animals (EFSA, 2012 and 2013), including insects (GMIs), are adequate and sufficient for GDMIs, primarily disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, for deliberate release into the environment. Under this mandate, EFSA was not requested to develop risk assessment guidelines for GDMIs. In this Scientific Opinion, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) concludes that EFSA's guidelines are adequate, but insufficient for the molecular characterisation (MC), environmental risk assessment (ERA) and post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) of GDMIs. While the MC,ERA and PMEM of GDMIs can build on the existing risk assessment framework for GMIs that do not contain engineered gene drives, there are specific areas where further guidance is needed for GDMIs.

Population Dynamics of Underdominance Gene Drive Systems in Continuous Space

Underdominance systems can quickly spread through a population, but only when introduced in considerable numbers. This promises a gene drive mechanism that is less invasive than homing drives, potentially enabling new approaches in the fight against vector-borne diseases. If regional confinement can indeed be achieved, the decision-making process for a release would likely be much simpler compared to other, more invasive types of drives. The capacity of underdominance gene drive systems to spread in a target population without invading other populations is typically assessed via network models of panmictic demes linked by migration. However, it remains less clear how such systems would behave in more realistic population models where organisms move over a continuous landscape. Here, we use individual-based simulations to study the dynamics of several proposed underdominance systems in continuous-space. We find that all these systems can fail to persist in such environments, even after an initially successful establishment in the release area, confirming previous theoretical results from diffusion theory. At the same time, we find that a two-locus two-toxin-antidote system can invade connected demes through a narrow migration corridor. This suggests that the parameter space where underdominance systems can establish and persist in a release area while at the same time remaining confined to that area could be quite limited, depending on how a population is spatially structured. Overall, these results indicate that realistic spatial context must be considered when assessing strategies for the deployment of underdominance drives.

Mathematical modeling of self-contained CRISPR gene drive reversal systems

There is a critical need for further research into methods to control biological populations. Numerous challenges to agriculture, ecological systems, and human health could be mitigated by the targeted reduction and management of key species (e.g. pests, parasites, and vectors for pathogens). The discovery and adaptation of the CRISPR/Cas editing platform co-opted from bacteria has provided a mechanism for a means to alter an entire population. A CRISPR-based gene drive system can allow for the forced propagation of a genetic element that bypasses Mendelian inheritance which can be used to bias sex determination, install exogenous information, or remove endogenous DNA within an entire species. Laboratory studies have demonstrated the potency by which gene drives can operate within insects and other organisms. However, continued research and eventual application face serious opposition regarding issues of policy, biosafety, effectiveness, and reversal. Previous mathematical work has suggested the use of modified gene drive designs that are limited in spread such as daisy chain or underdominance drives. However, no system has yet been proposed that allows for an inducible reversal mechanism without requiring the introduction of additional individuals. Here, we study gene drive effectiveness, fitness, and inducible drive systems that could respond to external stimuli expanding from a previous frequency-based population model. We find that programmed modification during gene drive propagation could serve as a potent safeguard to either slow or completely reverse drive systems and allow for a return to the original wild-type population.

Modeling the mutation and reversal of engineered underdominance gene drives

A range of gene drive systems have been proposed that are predicted to increase their frequency and that of associated desirable genetic material even if they confer a fitness cost on individuals carrying them. Engineered underdominance (UD) is such a system and, in one version, is based on the introduction of two independently segregating transgenic constructs each carrying a lethal gene, a suppressor for the lethal at the other locus and a desirable genetic "cargo". Under this system individuals carrying at least one copy of each construct (or no copies of either) are viable whilst those that possess just one of the transgenic constructs are non-viable. Previous theoretical work has explored various properties of these systems, concluding that they should persist indefinitely in absence of resistance or mutation. Here we study a population genetics model of UD gene drive that relaxes past assumptions by allowing for loss-of-function mutations in each introduced gene. We demonstrate that mutations are likely to cause UD systems to break down, eventually resulting in the elimination of introduced transgenes. We then go on to investigate the potential of releasing "free suppressor" carrying individuals as a new method for reversing UD gene drives and compare this to the release of wild-types; the only previously proposed reversal strategy for UD. This reveals that while free suppressor carrying individuals may represent an inexpensive reversal strategy due to extremely small release requirements, they are not able to return a fully wild-type population as rapidly as the release of wild-types.

Tethered homing gene drives: A new design for spatially restricted population replacement and suppression

Optimism regarding potential epidemiological and conservation applications of modern gene drives is tempered by concern about the possibility of unintended spread of engineered organisms beyond the target population. In response, several novel gene drive approaches have been proposed that can, under certain conditions, locally alter characteristics of a population. One challenge for these gene drives is the difficulty of achieving high levels of localized population suppression without very large releases in the face of gene flow. We present a new gene drive system, tethered homing (TH), with improved capacity for both localization and population suppression. The TH drive is based on driving a payload gene using a homing construct that is anchored to a spatially restricted gene drive. We use a proof-of-concept mathematical model to show the dynamics of a TH drive that uses engineered underdominance as an anchor. This system is composed of a split homing drive and a two-locus engineered underdominance drive linked to one part of the split drive (the Cas endonuclease). We use simple population genetic simulations to show that the tethered homing technique can offer improved localized spread of costly transgenic payload genes. Additionally, the TH system offers the ability to gradually adjust the genetic load in a population after the initial alteration, with minimal additional release effort. We discuss potential solutions for improving localization and the feasibility of creating TH drive systems. Further research with models that include additional biological details will be needed to better understand how TH drives would behave in natural populations, but the preliminary results shown here suggest that tethered homing drives can be a useful addition to the repertoire of localized gene drives.

Recent advances in threshold-dependent gene drives for mosquitoes

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue and chikungunya, cause morbidity and mortality around the world. Recent advances in gene drives have produced control methods that could theoretically modify all populations of a disease vector, from a single release, making whole species less able to transmit pathogens. This ability has caused both excitement, at the prospect of global eradication of mosquito-borne diseases, and concern around safeguards. Drive mechanisms that require individuals to be released at high frequency before genes will spread can therefore be desirable as they are potentially localised and reversible. These include underdominance-based strategies and use of the reproductive parasite Wolbachia Here, we review recent advances in practical applications and mathematical analyses of these threshold-dependent gene drives with a focus on implementation in Aedes aegypti, highlighting their mechanisms and the role of fitness costs on introduction frequencies. Drawing on the parallels between these systems offers useful insights into practical, controlled application of localised drives, and allows us to assess the requirements needed for gene drive reversal.

Ecological effects on underdominance threshold drives for vector control

Underdominance gene drives are frequency-dependent drives that aim to spread a desired homozygote genotype within a population. When the desired homozygote is released above a threshold frequency, heterozygote fitness disadvantage acts to drive the desired trait to fixation. Underdominance drives have been proposed as a way to control vector-borne disease through population suppression and replacement in a spatially contained and reversible way-benefits that directly address potential safety concerns with gene drives. Here, ecological and epidemiological dynamics are coupled to a model of mosquito genetics to investigate theoretically the impact of different types of underdominance gene drive on disease prevalence. We model systems with two engineered alleles carried either on the same pair of chromosomes at the same locus or homozygously on different pairs at different loci, genetic lethality that affects both sexes or only females, and bi-sex or male-only releases. Further, the different genetic and ecological fitness costs that can arise from genetic modification and artificial rearing are investigated through their effect on the population threshold frequency that is required to trigger the drive mechanism. We show that male-only releases must be significantly larger than bi-sex releases to trigger the underdominance drive. In addition, we find that female-specific lethality averts a higher percentage of disease cases over a control period than does bi-sex lethality. Decreases in the genetic fitness of the engineered homozygotes can increase the underdominance threshold substantially, but we find that the mating success of transgenic mosquitoes with wild-type females (influenced by a lack of competitiveness or the evolution of behavioural resistance in the form of active female mate preference) and the longevity of artificially-reared mosquitoes are vitally important to the success chances of underdominance based gene drive control efforts.

Invasion and migration of spatially self-limiting gene drives: A comparative analysis

Recent advances in research on gene drives have produced genetic constructs that could theoretically spread a desired gene (payload) into all populations of a species, with a single release in one place. This attribute has advantages, but also comes with risks and ethical concerns. There has been a call for research on gene drive systems that are spatially and/or temporally self-limiting. Here, we use a population genetics model to compare the expected characteristics of three spatially self-limiting gene drive systems: one-locus underdominance, two-locus underdominance and daisy-chain drives. We find large differences between these gene drives in the minimum release size required for successfully driving a payload into a population. The daisy-chain system is the most efficient, requiring the smallest release, followed by the two-locus underdominance system, and then the one-locus underdominance system. However, when the target population exchanges migrants with a nontarget population, the gene drives requiring smaller releases suffer from higher risks of unintended spread. For payloads that incur relatively low fitness costs (up to 30%), a simple daisy-chain drive is practically incapable of remaining localized, even with migration rates as low as 0.5% per generation. The two-locus underdominance system can achieve localized spread under a broader range of migration rates and of payload fitness costs, while the one-locus underdominance system largely remains localized. We also find differences in the extent of population alteration and in the permanence of the alteration achieved by the three gene drives. The two-locus underdominance system does not always spread the payload to fixation, even after successful drive, while the daisy-chain system can, for a small set of parameter values, achieve a temporally limited spread of the payload. These differences could affect the suitability of each gene drive for specific applications.

Considerations for the governance of gene drive organisms

Governance is a broader and more flexible concept than statute-driven regulations as it incorporates components outside the latter's remit. Considerations of governance are critical in the development of emerging biotechnologies such as gene drive organisms. These have been proposed or are being developed to address public and environmental health issues not addressed easily by conventional means. Here, we consider how the concept of governance differs from statute-driven regulation with reference to the role each may play in the development of gene drive organisms. First, we discuss existing statute-based regulatory systems. Second, we consider whether novel risks or different concerns derive from gene drive organisms, concentrating on characteristics that contribute to public health or environmental risk and uncertainties that may affect risk perceptions. Third, we consider public engagement, outlining how existing statute-driven regulatory systems and other governance mechanisms may provide opportunities for constructive interactions. Finally, we provide some observations that may help address science- and values-based concerns in a governance space larger than that of statute-driven regulatory systems.

Population dynamics of engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drives in the control of disease vectors

A number of different genetics-based vector control methods have been proposed. Two approaches currently under development in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the two-locus engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drive systems. Each of these is theoretically capable of increasing in frequency within a population, thus spreading associated desirable genetic traits. Thus they have gained attention for their potential to aid in the fight against various mosquito-vectored diseases. In the case of engineered underdominance, introduced transgenes are theoretically capable of persisting indefinitely (i.e. it is self-sustaining) whilst in the killer-rescue system the rescue component should initially increase in frequency (while the lethal component (killer) is common) before eventually declining (when the killer is rare) and being eliminated (i.e. it is temporally self-limiting). The population genetics of both systems have been explored using discrete generation mathematical models. The effects of various ecological factors on these two systems have also been considered using alternative modelling methodologies. Here we formulate and analyse new mathematical models combining the population dynamics and population genetics of these two classes of gene drive that incorporate ecological factors not previously studied and are simple enough to allow the effects of each to be disentangled. In particular, we focus on the potential effects that may be obtained as a result of differing ecological factors such as strengths of larval competition; numbers of breeding sites; and the relative fitness of transgenic mosquitoes compared with their wild-type counterparts. We also extend our models to consider population dynamics in two demes in order to explore the effects of dispersal between neighbouring populations on the outcome of UD and KR gene drive systems.