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Zhang T, Zhao XQ. Threshold dynamics of an almost periodic vector-borne disease model. J Math Biol 2023; 87:72. [PMID: 37848568 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-02002-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2021] [Revised: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/19/2023]
Abstract
Many infectious diseases cannot be transmitted from human to human directly, and the transmission needs to be done via a vector. It is well known that vectors' life cycles are highly dependent on their living environment. In order to investigate dynamics of vector-borne diseases under environment influence, we propose a vector-borne disease model with almost periodic coefficients. We derive the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] for this model and establish a threshold type result on its global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text]. As an illustrative example, we consider an almost periodic model of malaria transmission. Our numerical simulation results show that the basic reproductive number may be underestimated if almost periodic coefficients are replaced by their average values . Finally, we use our model to study the dengue fever transmission in Guangdong, China. The parameters are chosen to fit the reported data available for Guangdong. Numerical simulations indicate that the annual dengue fever case in Guangdong will increase steadily in the near future unless more effective control measures are implemented. Sensitivity analysis implies that the parameters with strong impact on the outcome are recovery rate, mosquito recruitment rate, mosquito mortality rate, baseline transmission rates between mosquito and human. This suggests that the effective control strategies may include intensive treatment, mosquito control, decreasing human contact number with mosquitoes (e.g., using bed nets and preventing mosquito bites), and environmental modification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tailei Zhang
- School of Science, Chang'an University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710064, China.
| | - Xiao-Qiang Zhao
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada
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2
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Ruan S, Xiao D. Imperfect and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations in biological models: from harvesting of species to isolation of infectives. J Math Biol 2023; 87:17. [PMID: 37358658 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01951-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/27/2023]
Abstract
A natural biological system under human interventions may exhibit complex dynamical behaviors which could lead to either the collapse or stabilization of the system. The bifurcation theory plays an important role in understanding this evolution process by modeling and analyzing the biological system. In this paper, we examine two types of biological models that Fred Brauer made pioneer contributions: predator-prey models with stocking/harvesting and epidemic models with importation/isolation. First we consider the predator-prey model with Holling type II functional response whose dynamics and bifurcations are well-understood. By considering human interventions such as constant harvesting or stocking of predators, we show that the system under human interventions undergoes imperfect bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, which induces much richer dynamical behaviors such as the existence of limit cycles or homoclinic loops. Then we consider an epidemic model with constant importation/isolation of infective individuals and observe similar imperfect and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations when the constant importation/isolation rate varies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shigui Ruan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, 33146, USA.
| | - Dongmei Xiao
- School of Mathematical Sciences, CMA-Shanghai, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China
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3
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Bamiduro GJ, Kumar N, Solo-Gabriele HM, Zahran EM. Persistence of aerially-sprayed naled in coastal sediments. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 794:148701. [PMID: 34323772 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Aerial sprays of the organophosphate pesticide, naled, were intensified over beach areas during the summer of 2016 to control the locally-acquired Zika outbreak in the continental U.S. Concerns were raised in beach frequented areas about contaminated sediments. The aim of this study was to evaluate the persistence and levels of naled and its byproduct, dichlorvos, in sediments obtained from the affected areas. Laboratory experiments were designed to simulate the effect of various natural conditions on the decomposition of naled in three sediment types (beach sand, marl, and calcinated beach sand). The three sediment samples were also exposed to field aerial sprays. After 30 min of exposure, more dichlorvos was detected in the sediments than naled, with 33 to 43% of the molar concentration initially applied as either naled or dichlorvos. Under dark conditions, trace levels of naled were observed after 24 h on sediments. Higher temperature accelerated the natural decomposition of both naled and dichlorvos in sediments. The half-life of naled ranged from 3 to 5 h at 22.5 °C and ranged from 1 to 3 h at 30 °C. Expedited decomposition of naled was observed under sunlight conditions with a half-life of naled of 20 min. In the field, only dichlorvos was detected in the sediment samples at concentrations between 0.0011 and 0.0028 μmol/g 1 h after aerial sprays. This data can be used towards a risk assessment that evaluates exposures to naled and dichlorvos through beach sands impacted by aerial spray activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gbemisola J Bamiduro
- Department of Chemistry, Ball State University, Muncie, IN, 47306, United States of America
| | - Naresh Kumar
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - Helena M Solo-Gabriele
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States of America
| | - Elsayed M Zahran
- Department of Chemistry, Ball State University, Muncie, IN, 47306, United States of America.
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Kondapaneni R, Malcolm AN, Vazquez BM, Zeng E, Chen TY, Kosinski KJ, Romero-Weaver AL, Giordano BV, Allen B, Riles MT, Killingsworth D, Campbell LP, Caragata EP, Lee Y. Mosquito Control Priorities in Florida-Survey Results from Florida Mosquito Control Districts. Pathogens 2021; 10:pathogens10080947. [PMID: 34451411 PMCID: PMC8401384 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10080947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Revised: 07/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Florida lies within a subtropical region where the climate allows diverse mosquito species including invasive species to thrive year-round. As of 2021, there are currently 66 state-approved Florida Mosquito Control Districts, which are major stakeholders for Florida public universities engaged in mosquito research. Florida is one of the few states with extensive organized mosquito control programs. The Florida State Government and Florida Mosquito Control Districts have long histories of collaboration with research institutions. During fall 2020, we carried out a survey to collect baseline data on the current control priorities from Florida Mosquito Control Districts relating to (1) priority control species, (2) common adult and larval control methods, and (3) major research questions to address that will improve their control and surveillance programs. The survey data showed that a total of 17 distinct mosquito species were considered to be priority control targets, with many of these species being understudied. The most common control approaches included truck-mounted ultra-low-volume adulticiding and biopesticide-based larviciding. The districts held interest in diverse research questions, with many prioritizing studies on basic science questions to help develop evidence-based control strategies. Our data highlight the fact that mosquito control approaches and priorities differ greatly between districts and provide an important point of comparison for other regions investing in mosquito control, particularly those with similar ecological settings, and great diversity of potential mosquito vectors, such as in Florida. Our findings highlight a need for greater alignment of research priorities between mosquito control and mosquito research. In particular, we note a need to prioritize filling knowledge gaps relating to understudied mosquito species that have been implicated in arbovirus transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rishi Kondapaneni
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Ashley N. Malcolm
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Brian M. Vazquez
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Eric Zeng
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Tse-Yu Chen
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Kyle J. Kosinski
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Ana L. Romero-Weaver
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Bryan V. Giordano
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Benjamin Allen
- Mosquito Control Division, City of Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL 32202, USA;
| | - Michael T. Riles
- Beach Mosquito Control District, Panama City Beach, FL 32413, USA;
| | | | - Lindsay P. Campbell
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Eric P. Caragata
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
| | - Yoosook Lee
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA; (R.K.); (A.N.M.); (B.M.V.); (E.Z.); (T.-Y.C.); (K.J.K.); (A.L.R.-W.); (B.V.G.); (L.P.C.); (E.P.C.)
- Correspondence:
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Rhoden K, Alonso J, Carmona M, Pham M, Barnes AN. Twenty years of waterborne and related disease reports in Florida, USA. One Health 2021; 13:100294. [PMID: 34368415 PMCID: PMC8326185 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2021] [Revised: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Florida represents a unique challenge for preventing and responding to infectious disease associated with water. This study cataloged the prevalence of reportable waterborne and water-related disease within Florida residents over the last twenty years and identified relationships between confirmed cases by location and additional risk factors. Data was collected through FLHealthCHARTS for confirmed cases between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2019. Case records were compiled and analyzed by year, county, pathogen name and disease category, patient age, and where the infection was acquired. During this time, 218,707 cases of water-related disease were recorded with 214,745 due to waterborne disease, 3255 cases of water-related vector-borne disease, and 707 cases caused by a water-based toxin. Children aged 0–4 and the elderly demonstrated a higher proportion of waterborne disease while 45–49 year olds had increased rates of water-based toxins and water-related vector-borne disease. Most cases were reported in the southeast region. Across the state, opportunities for water contact have led to high rates of water-related infectious disease. Public health initiatives and response efforts should target the pathogens of greatest impact for each region, largely zoonotic waterborne diseases, using a One Health approach. Over 200,000 cases of water-related disease have been reported to the Florida Department of Health over the last 20 years Most reported disease is due to waterborne pathogens followed by water-related vector-borne disease and water-based toxins Salmonellosis makes up the largest reported water-related disease burden for Florida Children and seniors have higher risk for waterborne disease; adults have higher risk for toxins and vector-borne disease Water disease prevention and response must use a One Health model for collaboration with human and animal health providers
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelly Rhoden
- Department of Public Health, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Jose Alonso
- Department of Public Health, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Meg Carmona
- Department of Public Health, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Michelle Pham
- Department of Public Health, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Amber N Barnes
- Department of Public Health, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, USA
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Núñez-López M, Alarcón Ramos L, Velasco-Hernández JX. Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network. APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 2021; 89:1949-1964. [PMID: 32952269 PMCID: PMC7486824 DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2020.08.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a general contact rate that represents a local measure of several factors: the population size of infected hosts that arrive at a given location as a function of total population size, the current incidence at neighboring locations, and the connectivity of the network where the disease spreads. This parameter can be interpreted as an indicator of outbreak risk at a given location. This parameter is tied to the fraction of individuals that move across boundaries (migration). To illustrate our model capabilities, we estimate from epidemic Dengue data in Mexico the dynamics of migration at a regional scale incorporating climate variability represented by an index based on precipitation data.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Núñez-López
- Department of Mathematics, ITAM Río Hondo 1, Ciudad de México 01080, México
| | - L Alarcón Ramos
- Departamento de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Sistemas, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Cuajimalpa, Av. Vasco de Quiroga 4871, Cuajimalpa de Morelos, 05300, México
| | - J X Velasco-Hernández
- Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Boulevard Juriquilla No. 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, México
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Dénes A, Ibrahim MA, Oluoch L, Tekeli M, Tekeli T. Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever. Sci Rep 2019; 9:17055. [PMID: 31745123 PMCID: PMC6863851 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53062-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2019] [Accepted: 10/26/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and the role of asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate the impact of the seasonality of weather on the spread of Zika, we apply a nonautonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth rate and biting rate, which allows us to explain the differing outcome of the epidemic in different countries of South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, we were able to reproduce the different outcomes of the disease in various countries. Sensitivity analysis shows that, although the most important factors in Zika transmission are the birth rate of mosquitoes and the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans, spread through sexual contacts also highly contributes to the transmission of Zika virus: our study suggests that the practice of safe sex among those who have possibly contracted the disease, can significantly reduce the number of Zika cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Attila Dénes
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, H-6720, Hungary.
| | - Mahmoud A Ibrahim
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, H-6720, Hungary.,Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt
| | - Lillian Oluoch
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, H-6720, Hungary
| | - Miklós Tekeli
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, H-6720, Hungary
| | - Tamás Tekeli
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Szeged, H-6720, Hungary
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