Designing combination therapies using multiple optimal controls

Unraveling the influence of the objective functional on epidemic optimal control: Insights from the SIR model

In the application of optimal control theory to medical and biological problems, the dependence of the objective functional on the control variable is often subject to uncertainty. This study examines the effects of this dependency on the outcomes of optimal control problems in the context of disease control using the SIR model. We formulate two distinct optimal control problems: one for the control of disease spread through prophylactic vaccination, and another for the treatment of infected individuals. For each scenario, we propose four variations of the objective functional to capture the cost of control interventions, namely, quadratic state-independent, quadratic state-dependent, linear state-independent, and linear state-dependent. We also conduct numerical simulations to compare optimal control solutions across different weight parameters. While some qualitative characteristics of the control profiles are similar in certain scenarios, there are also notable differences suggesting that the choice of objective functional can substantially alter the resulting control profiles. Consequently, when there is uncertainty regarding the functional form of the objective and its relationship to the control parameter, it is recommended to evaluate multiple objectives and subsequently identify which solution is most suitable for practical implementation.

Vaccination strategies in a pair formation model for human papillomavirus infection: An optimal control approach

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a widespread sexually transmitted infection responsible for several cancers including anal, oropharyngeal, penile, vaginal, and cervical cancer. Despite HPV vaccines have been available for almost 20 years and are incredibly effective in preventing infection, the scale-up of vaccination has been slow in many low and middle-income countries. This analysis uses a pair model that explicitly accounts for sexual partnership formation to investigate HPV immunization programs. The optimality of vaccine interventions is analyzed using optimal control theory. We give formal proof of the existence of optimal control solutions and obtain first-order optimality conditions via Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Extensive numerical simulations are used to investigate plausible what-if scenarios to understand under which conditions the inclusion of males should be recommended in addition to female vaccination. The results suggest that a gender-neutral vaccination program should be recommended in regions where vaccination uptake in women is still low whereas for an already existing female-only program with high uptake, it is more effective to keep increasing coverage in females.

Optimal control of combination immunotherapy for a virtual murine cohort in a glioblastoma-immune dynamics model

The immune checkpoint inhibitor anti-PD-1, commonly used in cancer immunotherapy, has not been successful as a monotherapy for the highly aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma. However, when used in conjunction with a CC-chemokine receptor-2 (CCR2) antagonist, anti-PD-1 has shown efficacy in preclinical studies. In this paper, we aim to optimize treatment regimens for this combination immunotherapy using optimal control theory. We extend a treatment-free glioblastoma-immune dynamics ODE model to include interventions with anti-PD-1 and the CCR2 antagonist. An optimized regimen increases the survival of an average mouse from 32 days post-tumor implantation without treatment to 111 days with treatment. We scale this approach to a virtual murine cohort to evaluate mortality and quality of life concerns during treatment, and predict survival, tumor recurrence, or death after treatment. A parameter identifiability analysis identifies five parameters suitable for personalizing treatment within the virtual cohort. Sampling from these five practically identifiable parameters for the virtual murine cohort reveals that personalized, optimized regimens enhance survival: 84% of the virtual mice survive to day 100, compared to 60% survival in a previously studied experimental regimen. Subjects with high tumor growth rates and low T cell kill rates are identified as more likely to die during and after treatment due to their compromised immune systems and more aggressive tumors. Notably, the MDSC death rate emerges as a long-term predictor of either disease-free survival or death.

Optimal control of combination immunotherapy for a virtual murine cohort in a glioblastoma-immune dynamics model

The immune checkpoint inhibitor anti-PD-1, commonly used in cancer immunotherapy, has not been successful as a monotherapy for the highly aggressive brain cancer glioblastoma. However, when used in conjunction with a CC-chemokine receptor-2 (CCR2) antagonist, anti-PD-1 has shown efficacy in preclinical studies. In this paper, we aim to optimize treatment regimens for this combination immunotherapy using optimal control theory. We extend a treatment-free glioblastoma-immune dynamics ODE model to include interventions with anti-PD-1 and the CCR2 antagonist. An optimized regimen increases the survival of an average mouse from 32 days post-tumor implantation without treatment to 111 days with treatment. We scale this approach to a virtual murine cohort to evaluate mortality and quality of life concerns during treatment, and predict survival, tumor recurrence, or death after treatment. A parameter identifiability analysis identifies five parameters suitable for personalizing treatment within the virtual cohort. Sampling from these five practically identifiable parameters for the virtual murine cohort reveals that personalized, optimized regimens enhance survival: 84% of the virtual mice survive to day 100, compared to 60% survival in a previously studied experimental regimen. Subjects with high tumor growth rates and low T cell kill rates are identified as more likely to die during and after treatment due to their compromised immune systems and more aggressive tumors. Notably, the MDSC death rate emerges as a long-term predictor of either disease-free survival or death.

Modeling of Mouse Experiments Suggests that Optimal Anti-Hormonal Treatment for Breast Cancer is Diet-Dependent

Estrogen receptor positive breast cancer is frequently treated with anti-hormonal treatment such as aromatase inhibitors (AI). Interestingly, a high body mass index has been shown to have a negative impact on AI efficacy, most likely due to disturbances in steroid metabolism and adipokine production. Here, we propose a mathematical model based on a system of ordinary differential equations to investigate the effect of high-fat diet on tumor growth. We inform the model with data from mouse experiments, where the animals are fed with high-fat or control (normal) diet. By incorporating AI treatment with drug resistance into the model and by solving optimal control problems we found differential responses for control and high-fat diet. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model optimal anti-hormonal treatment for breast cancer in the presence of drug resistance. Our results underline the importance of considering high-fat diet and obesity as factors influencing clinical outcomes during anti-hormonal therapies in breast cancer patients.

Optimal dosage protocols for mathematical models of synergy of chemo- and immunotherapy

The release of tumor antigens during traditional cancer treatments such as radio- or chemotherapy leads to a stimulation of the immune response which provides synergistic effects these treatments have when combined with immunotherapies. A low-dimensional mathematical model is formulated which, depending on the values of its parameters, encompasses the 3 E's (elimination, equilibrium, escape) of tumor immune system interactions. For the escape situation, optimal control problems are formulated which aim to revert the process to the equilibrium scenario. Some numerical results are included.

Optimal vaccination strategies for a heterogeneous population using multiple objectives: The case of L1- and L2-formulations

The choice of the objective functional in optimization problems coming from biomedical and epidemiological applications plays a key role in optimal control outcomes. In this study, we investigate the role of the objective functional on the structure of the optimal control solution for an epidemic model for sexually transmitted infections that includes a core group with higher sexual activity levels than the rest of the population. An optimal control problem is formulated to find a targeted vaccination program able to control the spread of the infection with minimum vaccine deployment. Both L1- and L2-objectives are considered as an attempt to explore the trade-offs between control dynamics and the functional form characterizing optimality. The results show that the optimal vaccination policies for both the L1- and the L2-formulation share one important qualitative property, that is, immunization of the core group should be prioritized by policymakers to achieve a fast reduction of the epidemic. However, quantitative aspects of this result can be significantly affected depending on the choice of the control weights between formulations. Overall, the results suggest that with appropriate weight constants, the optimal control outcomes are reasonably robust with respect to the L1- or L2-formulation. This is particularly true when the monetary cost of the control policy is substantially lower than the cost associated with the disease burden. Under these conditions, even if the L1-formulation is more realistic from a modeling perspective, the L2-formulation can be used as an approximation and yield qualitatively comparable outcomes.

Learning-based sensitivity analysis and feedback design for drug delivery of mixed therapy of cancer in the presence of high model uncertainties

In this paper, a methodology is proposed that enables to analyze the sensitivity of the outcome of a therapy to unavoidable high dispersion of the patient specific parameters on one hand and to the choice of the parameters that define the drug delivery feedback strategy on the other hand. More precisely, a method is given that enables to extract and rank the most influent parameters that determine the probability of success/failure of a given feedback therapy for a given set of initial conditions over a cloud of realizations of uncertainties. Moreover predictors of the expectations of the amounts of drugs being used can also be derived. This enables to design an efficient stochastic optimization framework that guarantees safe contraction of the tumor while minimizing a weighted sum of the quantities of the different drugs being used. The framework is illustrated and validated using the example of a mixed therapy of cancer involving three combined drugs namely: a chemotherapy drug, an immunology vaccine and an immunotherapy drug. Finally, in this specific case, it is shown that dash-boards can be built in the 2D-space of the most influent state components that summarize the outcomes' probabilities and the associated drug usage as iso-values curves in the reduced state space.

Predictive nonlinear modeling of malignant myelopoiesis and tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a blood cancer characterized by dysregulated production of maturing myeloid cells driven by the product of the Philadelphia chromosome, the BCR-ABL1 tyrosine kinase. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have proved effective in treating CML, but there is still a cohort of patients who do not respond to TKI therapy even in the absence of mutations in the BCR-ABL1 kinase domain that mediate drug resistance. To discover novel strategies to improve TKI therapy in CML, we developed a nonlinear mathematical model of CML hematopoiesis that incorporates feedback control and lineage branching. Cell-cell interactions were constrained using an automated model selection method together with previous observations and new in vivo data from a chimeric BCR-ABL1 transgenic mouse model of CML. The resulting quantitative model captures the dynamics of normal and CML cells at various stages of the disease and exhibits variable responses to TKI treatment, consistent with those of CML patients. The model predicts that an increase in the proportion of CML stem cells in the bone marrow would decrease the tendency of the disease to respond to TKI therapy, in concordance with clinical data and confirmed experimentally in mice. The model further suggests that, under our assumed similarities between normal and leukemic cells, a key predictor of refractory response to TKI treatment is an increased maximum probability of self-renewal of normal hematopoietic stem cells. We use these insights to develop a clinical prognostic criterion to predict the efficacy of TKI treatment and design strategies to improve treatment response. The model predicts that stimulating the differentiation of leukemic stem cells while applying TKI therapy can significantly improve treatment outcomes.

Optimal treatment strategy of cancers with intratumor heterogeneity

Intratumor heterogeneity hinders the success of anti-cancer treatment due to the interaction between different types of cells. To recapitulate the communication of different types of cells, we developed a mathematical model to study the dynamic interaction between normal, drug-sensitive and drug-resistant cells in response to cancer treatment. Based on the proposed model, we first study the analytical conclusions, namely the nonnegativity and boundedness of solutions, and the existence and stability of steady states. Furthermore, to investigate the optimal treatment that minimizes both the cancer cells count and the total dose of drugs, we apply the Pontryagin's maximum(or minimum) principle (PMP) to explore the combination therapy strategy with either quadratic control or linear control functionals. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the quadratic control problem, and apply the forward-backward sweep method (FBSM) to solve the optimal control problems and obtain the optimal therapy scheme.

Ecoevolutionary biology of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the most common histological subtype of pancreatic cancer, is an aggressive disease predicted to be the 2nd cause of cancer mortality in the US by 2040. While first-line therapy has improved, 5-year overall survival has only increased from 5 to ∼10%, and surgical resection is only available for ∼20% of patients as most present with advanced disease, which is invariably lethal. PDAC has well-established highly recurrent mutations in four driver genes including KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A, and SMAD4. Unfortunately, these genetic drivers are not currently therapeutically actionable. Despite extensive sequencing efforts, few additional significantly recurrent and druggable drivers have been identified. In the absence of targetable mutations, chemotherapy remains the mainstay of treatment for most patients. Further, the role of the above driver mutations on PDAC initiation and early development is well-established. However, these mutations alone cannot account for PDAC heterogeneity nor discern early from advanced disease. Taken together, management of PDAC is an example highlighting the shortcomings of the current precision medicine paradigm. PDAC, like other malignancies, represents an ecoevolutionary process. Better understanding the disease through this lens can facilitate the development of novel therapeutic strategies to better control and cure PDAC. This review aims to integrate the current understanding of PDAC pathobiology into an ecoevolutionary framework.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

On the Controllability of a System Modeling Cell Dynamics Related to Leukemia

In this paper, two control problems for a symmetric model of cell dynamics related to leukemia are considered. The first one, in connection with classical chemotherapy, is that the evolution of the disease under treatment should follow a prescribed trajectory assuming that the drug works by increasing the cell death rates of both malignant and normal cells. In the case of the second control problem, as for targeted therapies, the drug is assumed to work by decreasing the multiplication rate of leukemic cells only, and the control objective is that the disease state reaches a desired endpoint. The solvability of the two problems as well as their stability are proved by using a general method of analysis. Some numerical simulations are included to illustrate the theoretical results and prove their applicability. The results can possibly be used to design therapeutic scenarios such that an expected clinical evolution can be achieved.

Implementation and acceleration of optimal control for systems biology

Optimal control theory provides insight into complex resource allocation decisions. The forward–backward sweep method (FBSM) is an iterative technique commonly implemented to solve two-point boundary value problems arising from the application of Pontryagin’s maximum principle (PMP) in optimal control. The FBSM is popular in systems biology as it scales well with system size and is straightforward to implement. In this review, we discuss the PMP approach to optimal control and the implementation of the FBSM. By conceptualizing the FBSM as a fixed point iteration process, we leverage and adapt existing acceleration techniques to improve its rate of convergence. We show that convergence improvement is attainable without prohibitively costly tuning of the acceleration techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these methods can induce convergence where the underlying FBSM fails to converge. All code used in this work to implement the FBSM and acceleration techniques is available on GitHub at https://github.com/Jesse-Sharp/Sharp2021.

Modeling the optimal mitigation of potential impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems

Global warming is adversely affecting the earth's climate system due to rapid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Consequently, the world's coastal ecosystems are rapidly approaching a dangerous situation. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to assess the impact of rapid emissions of GHGs on climate change and coastal ecosystems. Furthermore, we develop a mitigation method involving two control strategies: coastal greenbelt and desulfurization. Here, greenbelt is considered in coastal areas to reduce the concentrations of GHGs by absorbing the environmental carbon dioxide (CO₂), whereas desulfurization is considered in factories and industries to reduce GHG emissions by controlling the release of harmful sulfur compounds. The model and how it can control the situation are analytically verified. Numerical results of this study are confirmed by comparison with other studies that examine different scenarios. Results show that both control strategies can mitigate GHG concentrations, curtail global warming and to some extent manage climate change. The results further reveal that both control strategies are more effective than one control method. Overall, the results suggest that the concentrations of GHGs and the effects of climate change can be controlled by adopting sufficient coastal greenbelt and desulfurization techniques in various industries.

Optimal control for colistin dosage selection

Optimization of antibiotic administration helps minimizing cases of bacterial resistance. Dosages are often selected by trial and error using a pharmacokinetic (PK) model. However, this is limited to the range of tested dosages, restraining possible treatment choices, especially for the loading doses. Colistin is a last-resort antibiotic with a narrow therapeutic window; therefore, its administration should avoid subtherapeutic or toxic concentrations. This study formulates an optimal control problem for dosage selection of colistin based on a PK model, minimizing deviations of colistin concentration to a target value and allowing a specific dosage optimization for a given individual. An adjoint model was used to provide the sensitivity of concentration deviations to dose changes. A three-compartment PK model was adopted. The standard deviation between colistin plasma concentrations and a target set at 2 mg/L was minimized for some chosen treatments and sample patients. Significantly lower deviations from the target concentration are obtained for shorter administration intervals (e.g. every 8 h) compared to longer ones (e.g. every 24 h). For patients with normal or altered renal function, the optimal loading dose regimen should be divided into two or more administrations to attain the target concentration quickly, with a high first loading dose followed by much lower ones. This regimen is not easily obtained by trial and error, highlighting advantages of the method. The present method is a refined optimization of antibiotic dosage for the treatment of infections. Results for colistin suggest significant improvement in treatment avoiding subtherapeutic or toxic concentrations.

Persistence as an Optimal Hedging Strategy

Bacteria invest in a slow-growing subpopulation, called persisters, to ensure survival in the face of uncertainty. This hedging strategy is remarkably similar to financial hedging, where diversifying an investment portfolio protects against economic uncertainty. We provide a new, to our knowledge, theoretical foundation for understanding cellular hedging by unifying the study of biological population dynamics and the mathematics of financial risk management through optimal control theory. Motivated by the widely accepted role of volatility in the emergence of persistence, we consider several models of environmental volatility described by continuous-time stochastic processes. This allows us to study an emergent cellular hedging strategy that maximizes the expected per capita growth rate of the population. Analytical and simulation results probe the optimal persister strategy, revealing results that are consistent with experimental observations and suggest new opportunities for experimental investigation and design. Overall, we provide a new, to our knowledge, way of conceptualizing and modeling cellular decision making in volatile environments by explicitly unifying theory from mathematical biology and finance.

Optimal vaccination strategy for dengue transmission in Kupang city, Indonesia

Dengue is a public health problem with around 390 million cases annually and is caused by four distinct serotypes. Infection by one of the serotypes provides lifelong immunity to that serotype but have a higher chance of attracting the more dangerous forms of dengue in subsequent infections. Therefore, a perfect strategy against dengue is required. Dengue vaccine with 42-80% efficacy level has been licensed for the use in reducing disease transmission. However, this may increase the likelihood of obtaining the dangerous forms of dengue. In this paper, we have developed single and two-serotype dengue mathematical models to investigate the effects of vaccination on dengue transmission dynamics. The model is validated against dengue data from Kupang city, Indonesia. We investigate the effects of vaccination on seronegative and seropositive individuals and perform a global sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential parameters of the model. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the vaccination rate, the transmission probability and the biting rate have greater effects on the reduction of the proportion of dengue cases. Interestingly, with vaccine implementation, the mosquito-related parameters do not have significant impact on the reduction in the proportion of dengue cases. If the vaccination is implemented on seronegative individuals only, it may increase the likelihood of obtaining the severe dengue. To reduce the proportion of severe dengue cases, it is better to vaccinate seropositive individuals. In the context of Kupang City where the majority of individuals have been infected by at least one dengue serotype, the implementation of vaccination strategy is possible. However, understanding the serotype-specific differences is required to optimise the delivery of the intervention.