Model-based data analysis of tissue growth in thin 3D printed scaffolds

Profile-Wise Analysis: A profile likelihood-based workflow for identifiability analysis, estimation, and prediction with mechanistic mathematical models

Interpreting data using mechanistic mathematical models provides a foundation for discovery and decision-making in all areas of science and engineering. Developing mechanistic insight by combining mathematical models and experimental data is especially critical in mathematical biology as new data and new types of data are collected and reported. Key steps in using mechanistic mathematical models to interpret data include: (i) identifiability analysis; (ii) parameter estimation; and (iii) model prediction. Here we present a systematic, computationally-efficient workflow we call Profile-Wise Analysis (PWA) that addresses all three steps in a unified way. Recently-developed methods for constructing 'profile-wise' prediction intervals enable this workflow and provide the central linkage between different workflow components. These methods propagate profile-likelihood-based confidence sets for model parameters to predictions in a way that isolates how different parameter combinations affect model predictions. We show how to extend these profile-wise prediction intervals to two-dimensional interest parameters. We then demonstrate how to combine profile-wise prediction confidence sets to give an overall prediction confidence set that approximates the full likelihood-based prediction confidence set well. Our three case studies illustrate practical aspects of the workflow, focusing on ordinary differential equation (ODE) mechanistic models with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise models. While the case studies focus on ODE-based models, the workflow applies to other classes of mathematical models, including partial differential equations and simulation-based stochastic models. Open-source software on GitHub can be used to replicate the case studies.

Quantifying tissue growth, shape and collision via continuum models and Bayesian inference

Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues and organs coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.

Mechano-immunology in microgravity

Life on Earth has evolved to thrive in the Earth's natural gravitational field; however, as space technology advances, we must revisit and investigate the effects of unnatural conditions on human health, such as gravitational change. Studies have shown that microgravity has a negative impact on various systemic parts of humans, with the effects being more severe in the human immune system. Increasing costs, limited experimental time, and sample handling issues hampered our understanding of this field. To address the existing knowledge gap and provide confidence in modelling the phenomena, in this review, we highlight experimental works in mechano-immunology under microgravity and different computational modelling approaches that can be used to address the existing problems.

Profile likelihood-based parameter and predictive interval analysis guides model choice for ecological population dynamics

Calibrating mathematical models to describe ecological data provides important insight via parameter estimation that is not possible from analysing data alone. When we undertake a mathematical modelling study of ecological or biological data, we must deal with the trade-off between data availability and model complexity. Dealing with the nexus between data availability and model complexity is an ongoing challenge in mathematical modelling, particularly in mathematical biology and mathematical ecology where data collection is often not standardised, and more broad questions about model selection remain relatively open. Therefore, choosing an appropriate model almost always requires case-by-case consideration. In this work we present a straightforward approach to quantitatively explore this trade-off using a case study exploring mathematical models of coral reef regrowth after some ecological disturbance, such as damage caused by a tropical cyclone. In particular, we compare a simple single species ordinary differential equation (ODE) model approach with a more complicated two-species coupled ODE model. Univariate profile likelihood analysis suggests that the both models are practically identifiable. To provide additional insight we construct and compare approximate prediction intervals using a new parameter-wise prediction approximation, confirming both the simple and complex models perform similarly with regard to making predictions. Our approximate parameter-wise prediction interval analysis provides explicit information about how each parameter affects the predictions of each model. Comparing our approximate prediction intervals with a more rigorous and computationally expensive evaluation of the full likelihood shows that the new approximations are reasonable in this case. All algorithms and software to support this work are freely available as jupyter notebooks on GitHub so that they can be adapted to deal with any other ODE-based models.

Curvature dependences of wave propagation in reaction–diffusion models

Reaction–diffusion waves in multiple spatial dimensions advance at a rate that strongly depends on the curvature of the wavefronts. These waves have important applications in many physical, ecological and biological systems. In this work, we analyse curvature dependences of travelling fronts in a single reaction–diffusion equation with general reaction term. We derive an exact, non-perturbative curvature dependence of the speed of travelling fronts that arises from transverse diffusion occurring parallel to the wavefront. Inward-propagating waves are characterized by three phases: an establishment phase dominated by initial and boundary conditions, a travelling-wave-like phase in which normal velocity matches standard results from singular perturbation theory and a dip-filling phase where the collision and interaction of fronts create additional curvature dependences to their progression rate. We analyse these behaviours and additional curvature dependences using a combination of asymptotic analyses and numerical simulations.

Computationally efficient mechanism discovery for cell invasion with uncertainty quantification

Parameter estimation for mathematical models of biological processes is often difficult and depends significantly on the quality and quantity of available data. We introduce an efficient framework using Gaussian processes to discover mechanisms underlying delay, migration, and proliferation in a cell invasion experiment. Gaussian processes are leveraged with bootstrapping to provide uncertainty quantification for the mechanisms that drive the invasion process. Our framework is efficient, parallelisable, and can be applied to other biological problems. We illustrate our methods using a canonical scratch assay experiment, demonstrating how simply we can explore different functional forms and develop and test hypotheses about underlying mechanisms, such as whether delay is present. All code and data to reproduce this work are available at https://github.com/DanielVandH/EquationLearning.jl.

Mathematical and computational models in spheroid-based biofabrication

Ubiquitous in embryonic development, tissue fusion is of interest to tissue engineers who use tissue spheroids or organoids as building blocks of three-dimensional (3D) multicellular constructs. This review presents mathematical models and computer simulations of the fusion of tissue spheroids. The motivation of this study stems from the need to predict the post-printing evolution of 3D bioprinted constructs. First, we provide a brief overview of differential adhesion, the main morphogenetic mechanism involved in post-printing structure formation. It will be shown that clusters of cohesive cells behave as an incompressible viscous fluid on the time scale of hours. The discussion turns then to mathematical models based on the continuum hydrodynamics of highly viscous liquids and on statistical mechanics. Next, we analyze the validity and practical use of computational models of multicellular self-assembly in live constructs created by tissue spheroid bioprinting. Finally, we discuss the perspectives of the field as machine learning starts to reshape experimental design, and modular robotic workstations tend to alleviate the burden of repetitive tasks in biofabrication. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Bioprinted constructs are living systems, which evolve via morphogenetic mechanisms known from developmental biology. This review presents mathematical and computational tools devised for modeling post-printing structure formation. They help achieving a desirable outcome without expensive optimization experiments. While previous reviews mainly focused on assumptions, technical details, strengths, and limitations of computational models of multicellular self-assembly, this article discusses their validity and practical use in biofabrication. It also presents an overview of mathematical models that proved to be useful in the evaluation of experimental data on tissue spheroid fusion, and in the calibration of computational models. Finally, the perspectives of the field are discussed in the advent of robotic biofabrication platforms and bioprinting process optimization by machine learning.

3D Plotting of Calcium Phosphate Cement and Melt Electrowriting of Polycaprolactone Microfibers in One Scaffold: A Hybrid Additive Manufacturing Process

The fabrication of patient-specific scaffolds for bone substitutes is possible through extrusion-based 3D printing of calcium phosphate cements (CPC) which allows the generation of structures with a high degree of customization and interconnected porosity. Given the brittleness of this clinically approved material, the stability of open-porous scaffolds cannot always be secured. Herein, a multi-technological approach allowed the simultaneous combination of CPC printing with melt electrowriting (MEW) of polycaprolactone (PCL) microfibers in an alternating, tunable design in one automated fabrication process. The hybrid CPC+PCL scaffolds with varying CPC strand distance (800-2000 µm) and integrated PCL fibers featured a strong CPC to PCL interface. While no adverse effect on mechanical stiffness was detected by the PCL-supported scaffold design; the microfiber integration led to an improved integrity. The pore distance between CPC strands was gradually increased to identify at which critical CPC porosity the microfibers would have a significant impact on pore bridging behavior and growth of seeded cells. At a CPC strand distance of 1600 µm, after 2 weeks of cultivation, the incorporation of PCL fibers led to pore coverage by a human mesenchymal stem cell line and an elevated proliferation level of murine pre-osteoblasts. The integrated fabrication approach allows versatile design adjustments on different levels.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

A Continuum Mathematical Model of Substrate-Mediated Tissue Growth

We consider a continuum mathematical model of biological tissue formation inspired by recent experiments describing thin tissue growth in 3D-printed bioscaffolds. The continuum model, which we call the substrate model, involves a partial differential equation describing the density of tissue, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{u}}(\hat{{\mathbf {x}}},{\hat{t}})$$\end{document}u^(x^,t^) that is coupled to the concentration of an immobile extracellular substrate, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}(\hat{{\mathbf {x}}},{\hat{t}})$$\end{document}s^(x^,t^). Cell migration is modelled with a nonlinear diffusion term, where the diffusive flux is proportional to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}$$\end{document}s^, while a logistic growth term models cell proliferation. The extracellular substrate \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}$$\end{document}s^ is produced by cells and undergoes linear decay. Preliminary numerical simulations show that this mathematical model is able to recapitulate key features of recent tissue growth experiments, including the formation of sharp fronts. To provide a deeper understanding of the model we analyse travelling wave solutions of the substrate model, showing that the model supports both sharp-fronted travelling wave solutions that move with a minimum wave speed, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$c = c_{\mathrm{min}}$$\end{document}c=cmin, as well as smooth-fronted travelling wave solutions that move with a faster travelling wave speed, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$c > c_{\mathrm{min}}$$\end{document}c>cmin. We provide a geometric interpretation that explains the difference between smooth and sharp-fronted travelling wave solutions that is based on a slow manifold reduction of the desingularised three-dimensional phase space. In addition, we also develop and test a series of useful approximations that describe the shape of the travelling wave solutions in various limits. These approximations apply to both the sharp-fronted and smooth-fronted travelling wave solutions. Software to implement all calculations is available at GitHub.

Parameter identifiability and model selection for sigmoid population growth models

Sigmoid growth models, such as the logistic, Gompertz and Richards' models, are widely used to study population dynamics ranging from microscopic populations of cancer cells, to continental-scale human populations. Fundamental questions about model selection and parameter estimation are critical if these models are to be used to make practical inferences. However, the question of parameter identifiability - whether a data set contains sufficient information to give unique or sufficiently precise parameter estimates - is often overlooked. We use a profile-likelihood approach to explore practical parameter identifiability using data describing the re-growth of hard coral. With this approach, we explore the relationship between parameter identifiability and model misspecification, finding that the logistic growth model does not suffer identifiability issues for the type of data we consider whereas the Gompertz and Richards' models encounter practical non-identifiability issues. This analysis of parameter identifiability and model selection is important because different growth models are in biological modelling without necessarily considering whether parameters are identifiable. Standard practices that do not consider parameter identifiability can lead to unreliable or imprecise parameter estimates and potentially misleading mechanistic interpretations. For example, using the Gompertz model, the estimate of the time scale of coral re-growth is 625 days when we estimate the initial density from the data, whereas it is 1429 days using a more standard approach where variability in the initial density is ignored. While tools developed here focus on three standard sigmoid growth models only, our theoretical developments are applicable to any sigmoid growth model and any appropriate data set. MATLAB implementations of all software are available on GitHub.

A quantitative analysis of cell bridging kinetics on a scaffold using computer vision algorithms

Tissue engineering involves the seeding of cells into a structural scaffolding to regenerate the architecture of damaged or diseased tissue. To effectively design a scaffold, an understanding of how cells collectively sense and react to the geometry of their local environment is needed. Advances in the development of melt electro-writing have allowed micron and submicron polymeric fibres to be accurately printed into porous, complex and three-dimensional structures. By using melt electrowriting, we created a geometrically relevant in vitro scaffold model to study cellular spatial-temporal kinetics. These scaffolds were paired with custom computer vision algorithms to investigate cell nuclei, cell membrane actin and scaffold fibres over different pore sizes (200-600 µm) and time points (28 days). We find that cells proliferated much faster in the smaller (200 µm) pores which halved the time until confluence versus larger (500 and 600 µm) pores. Our analysis of stained actin fibres revealed that cells were highly aligned to the fibres and the leading edge of the pore filling front, and we found that cells behind the leading edge were not aligned in any particular direction. This study provides a systematic understanding of cellular spatial temporal kinetics within a 3D in vitro model to inform the design of more effective synthetic tissue engineering scaffolds for tissue regeneration. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Advances in the development of melt electro-writing have allowed micron and submicron polymeric fibres to be accurately printed into porous, complex and three-dimensional structures. By using melt electrowriting, we created a geometrically relevant in vitro model to study cellular spatial-temporal kinetics to provide a systematic understanding of cellular spatial temporal kinetics within a 3D in vitro model. The insights presented in this work help to inform the design of more effective synthetic tissue engineering scaffolds by reducing cell culture time; which is valuable information for the implant or lab-grown-meat industries.

Quantitative analysis of tumour spheroid structure

Tumour spheroids are common in vitro experimental models of avascular tumour growth. Compared with traditional two-dimensional culture, tumour spheroids more closely mimic the avascular tumour microenvironment where spatial differences in nutrient availability strongly influence growth. We show that spheroids initiated using significantly different numbers of cells grow to similar limiting sizes, suggesting that avascular tumours have a limiting structure; in agreement with untested predictions of classical mathematical models of tumour spheroids. We develop a novel mathematical and statistical framework to study the structure of tumour spheroids seeded from cells transduced with fluorescent cell cycle indicators, enabling us to discriminate between arrested and cycling cells and identify an arrested region. Our analysis shows that transient spheroid structure is independent of initial spheroid size, and the limiting structure can be independent of seeding density. Standard experimental protocols compare spheroid size as a function of time; however, our analysis suggests that comparing spheroid structure as a function of overall size produces results that are relatively insensitive to variability in spheroid size. Our experimental observations are made using two melanoma cell lines, but our modelling framework applies across a wide range of spheroid culture conditions and cell lines.