Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Parameterizing mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology: a review of empirical approaches

Mechanistic niche models are computational tools developed using biophysical principles to address grand challenges in ecology and evolution, such as the mechanisms that shape the fundamental niche and the adaptive significance of traits. Here, we review the empirical basis of mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology, which are used to answer a broad array of questions in ecology, evolution and global change biology. We describe the experiments and observations that are frequently used to parameterize these models and how these empirical data are then incorporated into mechanistic niche models to predict performance, growth, survival and reproduction. We focus on the physiological, behavioral and morphological traits that are frequently measured and then integrated into these models. We also review the empirical approaches used to incorporate evolutionary processes, phenotypic plasticity and biotic interactions. We discuss the importance of validation experiments and observations in verifying underlying assumptions and complex processes. Despite the reliance of mechanistic niche models on biophysical theory, empirical data have and will continue to play an essential role in their development and implementation.

Evaluation of species thermal sensitivity with individual-based physiological performance

Ignoring intraspecific variations can prevent us from accurately assessing species' thermal sensitivity to global warming. Individual-based physiological performance provides a feasible solution to depict species' thermal sensitivity using a bottom-up approach. We measured the cardiac performance of intertidal bivalves (1159 individuals from multiple populations of six bivalves), determined the upper thermal limit of each individual, calculated the proportions of individuals suffering sublethal/lethal heat stress, and mapped sensitive regions to high temperatures. Results showed that high inter-individual variations of physiological performance existed in levels of populations and species, and species' thermal sensitivity was positively related to the intraspecific variations of heat tolerance. This bottom-up approach scaled up from individual, population to species emphasizes the importance of individual-based physiology performance in assessing thermal sensitivity across different hierarchical levels and enables better evaluating and forecasting of species responses to global warming.

Hydric effects on thermal tolerances influence climate vulnerability in a high-latitude beetle

Species' thermal tolerances are used to estimate climate vulnerability, but few studies consider the role of the hydric environment in shaping thermal tolerances. As environments become hotter and drier, organisms often respond by limiting water loss to lower the risk of desiccation; however, reducing water loss may produce trade-offs that lower thermal tolerances if respiration becomes inhibited. Here, we measured the sensitivity of water loss rate and critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) to precipitation in nature and laboratory experiments that exposed click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae) to acute- and long-term humidity treatments. We also took advantage of their unique clicking behavior to characterize subcritical thermal tolerances. We found higher water loss rates in the dry acclimation treatment compared to the humid, and water loss rates were 3.2-fold higher for individuals that had experienced a recent precipitation event compared to individuals that had not. Acute humidity treatments did not affect CTmax , but precipitation indirectly affected CTmax through its effect on water loss rates. Contrary to our prediction, we found that CTmax was negatively associated with water loss rate, such that individuals with high water loss rate exhibited a lower CTmax . We then incorporated the observed variation of CTmax into a mechanistic niche model that coupled leaf and click beetle temperatures to predict climate vulnerability. The simulations indicated that indices of climate vulnerability can be sensitive to the effects of water loss physiology on thermal tolerances; moreover, exposure to temperatures above subcritical thermal thresholds is expected to increase by as much as 3.3-fold under future warming scenarios. The correlation between water loss rate and CTmax identifies the need to study thermal tolerances from a "whole-organism" perspective that considers relationships between physiological traits, and the population-level variation in CTmax driven by water loss rate complicates using this metric as a straightforward proxy of climate vulnerability.

Linking critical thermal maximum to mortality from thermal stress in a cold-water frog

Estimates of organismal thermal tolerance are frequently used to assess physiological risk from warming, yet the assumption that these estimates are predictive of mortality has been called into question. We tested this assumption in the cold-water-specialist frog, Ascaphus montanus. For seven populations, we used dynamic experimental assays to measure tadpole critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and measured mortality from chronic thermal stress for 3 days at different temperatures. We tested the relationship between previously estimated population CTmax and observed mortality, as well as the strength of CTmax as a predictor of mortality compared to local stream temperatures capturing varying timescales. Populations with higher CTmax experienced significantly less mortality in the warmest temperature treatment (25°C). We also found that population CTmax outperformed stream temperature metrics as the top predictor of observed mortality. These results demonstrate a clear link between CTmax and mortality from thermal stress, contributing evidence that CTmax is a relevant metric for physiological vulnerability assessments.

Thermal tolerance responses of the two-spotted stink bug, Bathycoelia distincta (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), vary with life stage and the sex of adults

Temperature tolerance is an essential component of insect fitness, and its understanding can provide a predictive framework for their distribution and abundance. The two-spotted stink bug, Bathycoelia distincta Distant, is a significant pest of macadamia. The main goal of this study was to investigate the thermal tolerance of B. distincta across different life stages. Thermal tolerance indices investigated included critical thermal maximum (CT_max), critical thermal minimum (CT_min), effects of acclimation on CT_max and CT_min at 20, 25, and 30 °C, and rapid heat hardening (RHH), and rapid cold hardening (RCH). The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to explore the effects of life stage and acclimation on CT_max and CT_min and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the probability of survival after pre-exposure to RHH at 41 °C for 2 h and RCH at -8 °C for 2 h. CT_max and CT_min varied significantly between life stages at all acclimation temperatures, but CT_min (3.5 °C) varied more than CT_max (2.1 °C). Higher acclimation temperatures resulted in larger variations between life stages for both CT_max and CT_min. A significant acclimation response was observed for the CT_max of instar 2 (1.7 °C) and CT_min of females (2.7 °C) across acclimation temperatures (20-30 °C). Pre-exposure significantly improved the heat and cold survival probability of instar 2 and the cold survival probability of instar 3 and males. The response between life stages was more variable in RCH than in RHH. Instar 2 appeared to be the most thermally plastic life stage of B. distincta. These results suggest that the thermal plastic traits of B. distincta life stages may enable this pest to survive in temperature regimes under the ongoing climate change, with early life stages (except for instar 2) more temperature sensitive than later life stages.

Tolerance of high temperature and associated effects on reproduction in euedaphic Collembola

Studies show that tropical and mid-latitude terrestrial ectotherms are more vulnerable to global warming than species from high latitudes. However, thermal tolerance studies from these regions still lack soil invertebrates. In the present study, we investigated six euedaphic species of Collembola (of the genera Onychiurus and Protaphorura) sampled across latitudes ranging from 31° N to 64° N and determined their upper thermal limit (UTL) by static assays. In another experiment, we submitted springtails to high temperatures for exposure times, causing 5% to 30% mortality within each species. Survivors from this series of increasing heat injuries were used to determine the time-to-first-oviposition and the number of eggs produced following heat exposure. Two hypotheses are tested in this study: 1) heat tolerance of species correlates positively with the environmental temperature of their habitat; 2) the most heat-tolerant species require less time to regain reproduction and produce more eggs than the least heat-tolerant species. Results showed that the UTL positively correlates to the soil temperature of the sampling site. The sequence of UTL₆₀ (the temperature causing 50% mortality after 60 min of exposure) from highest to least was O. yodai > P. fimata > P. armata ≈ P. tricampata > P. macfadyeni > P. pseudovanderdrifti. Heat stress inflicted on springtails can delay reproduction in all species, and two species showed a reduced egg production rate after heat exposure. For heat stress causing up to 30% mortality, the most heat-tolerant species did not have advantages over the least heat-tolerant species for what concerns the recovery of reproduction. The relation between UTL and recovery from heat stress is not linear. Our study provides evidence for a potential long-term effect of high-temperature exposure on euedaphic species of Collembola and highlights the need for further studies on the effects of global warming on soil-living organisms.

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT50 ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT50 as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.