Prospective External Validation of a Bladder Cancer Detection Model

Potential molecular biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer (BC) is a common malignant tumor of urinary system, which can be divided into muscle-invasive BC (MIBC) and nonmuscle-invasive BC (NMIBC). The number of BC patients has been gradually increasing currently. At present, bladder tumours are diagnosed and followed-up using a combination of cystoscopic examination, cytology and histology. However, the detection of early grade tumors, which is much easier to treat effectively than advanced stage disease, is still insufficient. It frequently recurs and can progress when not expeditiously diagnosed and monitored following initial therapy for NMIBC. Treatment strategies are totally different for different stage diseases. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study new biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis. In this review, we summarize the current state of biomarker development in BC diagnosis and prognosis prediction. We retrospectively analyse eight diagnostic biomarkers and eight prognostic biomarkers, in which CK, P53, PPARγ, PTEN and ncRNA are emphasized for discussion. Eight molecular subtype systems are also identified. Clinical translation of biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis, monitoring and treatment will hopefully improve outcomes for patients. These potential biomarkers provide an opportunity to diagnose tumors earlier and with greater accuracy, and help identify those patients most at risk of disease recurrence.

Prediction for recurrent non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) has a high recurrence rate, which places a significant burden on both patients and the healthcare system. Hence, it holds significant importance to predict the recurrence risk following treatment for individuals diagnosed with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). As new generation technologies continue to emerge, an increasing number of recurrence risk prediction tools are being developed and discovered. This article provides an overview of the primary recurrence risk prediction tools currently available, including the liquid biopsy, tissue biopsy, and risk prediction tables. Each of these tools is described in detail and illustrated with relevant examples. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these tools. This article aims to enhance the reader's understanding of the current progress in recurrence prediction tools and encourage their practical utilization in the fields of precision medicine and public health.

Systematic Review of the Incidence of and Risk Factors for Urothelial Cancers and Renal Cell Carcinoma Among Patients with Haematuria

CONTEXT

The current impact of haematuria investigations on health care organisations is significant. There is currently no consensus on how to investigate patients with haematuria.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence of bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), and renal cell carcinoma (RCC) among patients undergoing investigation for haematuria and identify any risk factors for bladder cancer, UTUC, and RCC (BUR).

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Medline, Embase, and Cochrane controlled trials databases and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched for all relevant publications from January 1, 2000 to June 2021 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Prospective, retrospective, and cross-sectional studies with a minimum population of 50 patients with haematuria were considered for the review.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

A total of 44 studies were included. The total number of participants was 229701. The pooled incidence rate for urothelial bladder cancer was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14-20%) for visible haematuria (VH) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.45-4.3%) for nonvisible haematuria (NVH). The pooled incidence rate for RCC was 2% (95% CI 1-2%) for VH and 0.58% (95% CI 0.42-0.77%) for NVH. The pooled incidence rate for UTUC was 0.75% (95% CI 0.4-1.2%) for VH and 0.17% (95% CI 0.081-0.299%) for NVH. On sensitivity analysis, the proportions of males (risk ratio [RR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.10-1.17 for VH; 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78 for NVH; p < 0.00001; moderate certainty evidence) and individuals with a smoking history (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.24-1.61 for VH; 1.53, 95% CI 1.36-1.72 for NVH; p < 0.00001; moderate certainty evidence) appeared to be higher in BUR than in non-BUR groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Male gender and smoking history are risk factors for BUR cancer in haematuria, with bladder cancer being the commonest cancer. The incidence of RCC and UTUC in NVH is low. The review serves as a reference standard for future policy-making on investigation of haematuria by global organisations.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Our review shows that male gender and smoking history are risk factors for cancers of the bladder, kidney, and ureter. The review also provides information on the proportion of patients who have cancer when they have blood in their urine (haematuria) and will allow policy-makers to decide on the most appropriate method for investigating haematuria in patients.

Risk prediction models for symptomatic patients with bladder and kidney cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Timely diagnosis of bladder and kidney cancer is key to improving clinical outcomes. Given the challenges of early diagnosis, models incorporating clinical symptoms and signs may be helpful to primary care clinicians when triaging at-risk patients.

AIM

To identify and compare published models that use clinical signs and symptoms to predict the risk of undiagnosed prevalent bladder or kidney cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic review.

METHOD

A search identified primary research reporting or validating models predicting the risk of bladder or kidney cancer in MEDLINE and EMBASE. After screening identified studies for inclusion, data were extracted onto a standardised form. The risk models were classified using TRIPOD guidelines and evaluated using the PROBAST assessment tool.

RESULTS

The search identified 20 661 articles. Twenty studies (29 models) were identified through screening. All the models included haematuria (visible, non-visible, or unspecified), and seven included additional signs and symptoms (such as abdominal pain). The models combined clinical features with other factors (including demographic factors and urinary biomarkers) to predict the risk of undiagnosed prevalent cancer. Several models (n = 13) with good discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve >0.8) were identified; however, only eight had been externally validated. All of the studies had either high or unclear risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Models were identified that could be used in primary care to guide referrals, with potential to identify lower-risk patients with visible haematuria and to stratify individuals who present with non-visible haematuria. However, before application in general practice, external validations in appropriate populations are required.

Apolipoprotein A1 as a novel urinary biomarker for diagnosis of bladder cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction:

The emergence of urinary biomarkers for bladder cancer diagnosis could provide a reliable and less invasive diagnostic method. It could be also used as an adjuvant to the current gold standards of cytology and cystoscopy to improve diagnostic accuracy and decrease the percentage of false positives.

Methods:

We searched PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science up to March 18, 2020. We selected four studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of urinary apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA-1) in detecting bladder cancer and met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted the data and performed quality assessment of the studies.

Results:

Four studies with 771 participants were selected; 417 were bladder cancer patients and 354 were controls. Bladder cancer was either transitional cell carcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma, the stages varied between Ta to T3, and the grades varied between G1 and G3. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio were 90.7%, 90%, 9.478, 0.1, and 99.424, respectively. Summary receiver operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.9544 and Q* index of 0.8965.

Conclusions:

ApoA-1 showed high sensitivity and specificity, so it could be a useful biomarker in diagnosis of bladder cancer.

Upper tract imaging modality to investigate haematuria: cancer detection rates and changing guidelines

Background

To assess the imaging modalities used to investigate both visible haematuria and non-visible haematuria along with their detection rate of malignancy at two hospitals and the corresponding radiological workload produced.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted across two hospitals. All CT urograms and ultrasound scans investigating haematuria in the outpatient setting over a 12-month period were evaluated.

Results

The detection rate for upper tract urothelial cancer with visible haematuria was 0.97% and for renal cell carcinoma was 0.64%. Of all the CT urograms performed for non-visible haematuria 4.9% had suspicious findings but none of these represents an underlying malignancy. Of all the ultrasound scans performed for either visible or non-visible haematuria, none were shown to have an underlying malignancy. The detection rate was thus zero for an upper tract urinary cancer or renal cell carcinoma in the non-visible haematuria group. A CT urogram was performed in 27% and 67% of cases in each respective hospital to further investigate non-visible haematuria. CT urography makes up 2.3% and 5.2% of each hospitals overall respective workload in the CT department. CT urography to investigate non-visible haematuria could be replaced by ultrasound in low-risk patients.

Conclusions

Radiological investigations are a limited resource and better rationalisation of upper tract imaging is needed in the setting of haematuria. Risk stratification of patients would be of benefit to help prevent a significant delay in timely diagnostics for higher risk individuals presenting with haematuria.

Assessment of Diagnostic Yield of Cystoscopy and Computed Tomographic Urography for Urinary Tract Cancers in Patients Evaluated for Microhematuria: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Microhematuria (MH) is a common finding that often leads to further evaluation for urinary tract cancers. There is ongoing debate about the extent to which patients with MH should be evaluated for cancer.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic yield for detection of urinary tract cancers, specifically bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC), and kidney cell carcinoma, among patients evaluated for MH using cystoscopy and computed tomographic (CT) urography.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase were systematically searched for eligible studies published between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Original prospective and retrospective studies reporting the prevalence of cancer among patients evaluated for MH were eligible. Two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts to select studies that met the eligibility criteria and reached consensus about which studies to include. Among 5802 records identified, 5802 articles were screened using titles and abstracts. After exclusions, 55 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, with 39 studies selected for systematic review.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Studies were quantitatively synthesized using a random-intercept logistic regression model.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was diagnostic yield, defined as the proportion of patients with a diagnosis of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, UTUC, or kidney cell carcinoma) after presentation with MH. Studies were stratified by the percentage of cystoscopy and CT urography use and by high-risk cohorts. The diagnostic yields of CT urography and cystoscopy were calculated for each cancer type.

RESULTS

A total of 30 studies comprising 24 366 patients evaluated for MH were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled diagnostic yield among all patients was 2.00% (95% CI, 1.30%-3.09%) for bladder cancer, 0.02% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.15%) for UTUC, and 0.18% (95% CI, 0.09%-0.36%) for kidney cell carcinoma. Stratification of studies that used cystoscopy and/or CT urography for 95% or more of the cohort produced diagnostic yields of 2.74% (95% CI, 1.81%-4.12%) for bladder cancer, 0.09% (95% CI, 0.01%-0.75%) for UTUC, and 0.10% (95% CI, 0.04%-0.23%) for kidney cell carcinoma. In high-risk cohorts, the diagnostic yields increased to 4.61% (95% CI, 2.34%-8.90%) for bladder cancer and 0.45% (95% CI, 0.22%-0.95%) for UTUC.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study's findings suggest that, given the low diagnostic yield of CT urography and the associated risks and costs, limiting its use to high-risk patients older than 50 years is warranted. Risk stratification, as recommended by the recent American Urology Association guidelines on MH, may be a better approach to tailor further evaluation.

Evaluation of Hematuria in a Large Public Health Care System

Background:

Hematuria is the most common presenting symptom in bladder cancer, but many patients are not adequately evaluated.

Objectives:

To evaluate the type and frequency of hematuria evaluation in a large public health care system.

Patients and Methods:

Electronic medical records of adult patients with urinalysis positive for hematuria (≥3 RBCs/HPF) from January 2015 to April 2018 in an outpatient setting were reviewed. Logistic regression was performed to determine factors associated with urology referral and complete evaluation.

Results:

11,422 patients met the inclusion criteria; the majority were females (72%) and white race (60%). There were an additional 3,221 patient’s with initial diagnosis of UTI. Median age was 49.0 years. Testing included repeat urinalysis (50%), imaging (26%), urology referral (11.4%), cystoscopy (4.4%) and complete evaluation defined as cystoscopy and US/CT/MRI (4%). In the multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with higher referral to urology were age >35, male gender, hypertension, RBCs ≥20. African American race was associated with less referral to urology. Smoking was a significant variable on univariable analysis only. 37 patients (0.25%) were diagnosed with urological malignancies, with bladder cancer in 33, 12 of whom are missed by excluding UTI patients.

Conclusions:

In the outpatient setting of a public health care system, the vast majority of patients with hematuria are not referred and evaluated properly across all age categories and regardless of smoking status. This might result in missed cancer diagnoses and requires quality improvement measures.

Epidemiology, aetiology and screening of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer (BC) is a common, significant and expensive health condition. Understanding the risk factors for this disease is paramount to improving disease prevention and increasing public awareness. Historically BC has been a disease of industrialized regions and the most responsible carcinogens are tobacco smoke and occupational chemical exposure. BC incidence and mortality differ dramatically by region and reflect differences in risk factor exposure, healthcare behaviour, and population demographics. Screening studies have suggested a survival benefit amongst screened non-symptomatic populations with known risk factors, but this has not become standard practice.

Diagnostic biomarkers in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Successful treatment of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) relies heavily on our ability to accurately detect disease typically in the presence of hematuria as well as to detect the early recurrent tumors in patients with a history of NMIBC. Unfortunately, the current biomarker landscape for NMIBC is a work in progress. Cystoscopy continues to be the gold standard, but can still miss 10% of tumors. Therefore, physicians frequently use additional tools to aid in the diagnosis of bladder cancer, such as urinary cytology. The urinary cytology is a good option for high-grade disease; however, it is limited by low sensitivity in detecting low-grade disease, as well as variable interpretation among cytopathologists. Thus, the limitations of cystoscopy and urinary cytology have brought to light the need for more robust diagnostic assays. In this non-systematic review, we discuss the performance, potential advantages or disadvantages of these tests, and the future direction of biomarkers in NMIBC.

Molecular markers in bladder cancer

Purpose

Use of molecular markers in urine, tissue or blood offers potential opportunities to improve understanding of bladder cancer biology which may help identify disease earlier, risk stratify patients, improve prediction of outcomes or help target therapy.

Methods

A review of the published literature was performed, without restriction of time.

Results

Despite the fast-growing literature about the topic and the approval of several urinary biomarkers for use in clinical practice, they have not reached the level of evidence for widespread utilization. Biomarkers could be used in different clinical scenarios, mainly to overcome the limitations of current diagnostic, predictive, and prognostic tools. They have been evaluated to detect bladder cancer in asymptomatic populations or those with hematuria and in surveillance of disease as adjuncts to cystoscopy. There is also a potential role as prognosticators of disease recurrence, progression and survival both in patients with non-invasive cancers and in those with advanced disease. Finally, they promise to be helpful in predicting the response to local and/or systemic chemotherapy and/or immunotherapy.

Conclusions

To date, due to the lack of high-quality prospective trials, the level of evidence provided by the current literature remains low and, therefore, the potential of biomarkers exceeds utilization in clinical practice.

The contemporary role and impact of urine-based biomarkers in bladder cancer

Despite advances in the surgical and medical treatment of bladder cancer, there have only been minor improvements in mortality and morbidity rates over the past decades. Urine-based markers help to improve diagnosing bladder cancer with the aim of complementing or probably in future replacing cystoscopy. Biomarkers may allow individualized risk stratification and support decision-making regarding therapy and follow-up. This review summarizes the existing urine-based biomarkers in bladder cancer. We conducted a comprehensive review of the literature. We conducted a PubMed/Medline based research on English language articles and selected original articles and review articles that provided both description and assessment of urinary markers at time of screening, initial diagnosis, monitoring and prognostic evaluation of urothelial bladder cancer. Our research covered studies published between 2000 and 2017. The aim of this study was to give clinicians keys to understand the existing or promising urinary markers that may become alternatives to cytology/cystoscopy pair in the near future. Many urinary markers are now available, often with superior sensitivity to cytology. Their uses have been evaluated in numerous clinical situations in addition to the time of initial diagnosis and surveillance such as cases of isolated macroscopic hematuria or atypical cytology discordant with the rest of the explorations. However, their superiority over the cytology/cystoscopy association is not demonstrated. These new markers are lacking for the most part of standardization and simplicity making their use in common practice difficult. the types and forms of these new markers are very heterogeneous among themselves and between the studies that evaluate them. Well-designed protocols and prospective, controlled trials are needed to provide the basis to determine whether integration of urine- and blood-based biomarkers into clinical decision-making will be of value for bladder cancer detection and screening in the future.

Review of the Clinical Approaches to the Use of Urine-based Tumor Markers in Bladder Cancer

Bladder cancer is a common disease with a stable incidence for the past few decades despite advancements in molecular and genetic determinants of cancer development and progression. Cystoscopy remains the standard for detection and surveillance of bladder cancer, but it is an invasive and potentially costly procedure. With the knowledge of molecular alterations associated with bladder cancer numerous urine-based tumor markers have become commercially available. These urine markers have been evaluated in all clinical scenarios for the detection of bladder cancer including screening, hematuria, atypical cytology evaluation, and surveillance, but given the relative lack of impactful trials they are not routinely utilized. The efforts to develop markers with increased sensitivity to replace cystoscopy for the detection of bladder cancer have thus far been unsuccessful as well. This review addresses role of urine markers for screening, detection, and surveillance of bladder cancer.

An etiologic prediction model incorporating biomarkers to predict the bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

No etiological prediction model incorporating biomarkers is available to predict bladder cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to aromatic amines.

METHODS

Cases were 199 bladder cancer patients. Clinical, laboratory and genetic data were predictors in logistic regression models (full and short) in which the dependent variable was 1 for 15 patients with aromatic amines related bladder cancer and 0 otherwise. The receiver operating characteristics approach was adopted; the area under the curve was used to evaluate discriminatory ability of models.

RESULTS

Area under the curve was 0.93 for the full model (including age, smoking and coffee habits, DNA adducts, 12 genotypes) and 0.86 for the short model (including smoking, DNA adducts, 3 genotypes). Using the "best cut-off" of predicted probability of a positive outcome, percentage of cases correctly classified was 92% (full model) against 75% (short model). Cancers classified as "positive outcome" are those to be referred for evaluation by an occupational physician for etiological diagnosis; these patients were 28 (full model) or 60 (short model). Using 3 genotypes instead of 12 can double the number of patients with suspect of aromatic amine related cancer, thus increasing costs of etiologic appraisal.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating clinical, laboratory and genetic factors, we developed the first etiologic prediction model for aromatic amine related bladder cancer. Discriminatory ability was excellent, particularly for the full model, allowing individualized predictions. Validation of our model in external populations is essential for practical use in the clinical setting.

Bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is a highly prevalent disease and is associated with substantial morbidity, mortality and cost. Environmental or occupational exposures to carcinogens, especially tobacco, are the main risk factors for bladder cancer. Most bladder cancers are diagnosed after patients present with macroscopic haematuria, and cases are confirmed after transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT), which also serves as the first stage of treatment. Bladder cancer develops via two distinct pathways, giving rise to non-muscle-invasive papillary tumours and non-papillary (solid) muscle-invasive tumours. The two subtypes have unique pathological features and different molecular characteristics. Indeed, The Cancer Genome Atlas project identified genetic drivers of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) as well as subtypes of MIBC with distinct characteristics and therapeutic responses. For non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), intravesical therapies (primarily Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)) with maintenance are the main treatments to prevent recurrence and progression after initial TURBT; additional therapies are needed for those who do not respond to BCG. For localized MIBC, optimizing care and reducing morbidity following cystectomy are important goals. In metastatic disease, advances in our genetic understanding of bladder cancer and in immunotherapy are being translated into new therapies.

Deep Sequencing of Urinary RNAs for Bladder Cancer Molecular Diagnostics

Purpose: The majority of bladder cancer patients present with localized disease and are managed by transurethral resection. However, the high rate of recurrence necessitates lifetime cystoscopic surveillance. Developing a sensitive and specific urine-based test would significantly improve bladder cancer screening, detection, and surveillance.Experimental Design: RNA-seq was used for biomarker discovery to directly assess the gene expression profile of exfoliated urothelial cells in urine derived from bladder cancer patients (n = 13) and controls (n = 10). Eight bladder cancer specific and 3 reference genes identified by RNA-seq were quantitated by qPCR in a training cohort of 102 urine samples. A diagnostic model based on the training cohort was constructed using multiple logistic regression. The model was further validated in an independent cohort of 101 urines.Results: A total of 418 genes were found to be differentially expressed between bladder cancer and controls. Validation of a subset of these genes was used to construct an equation for computing a probability of bladder cancer score (P_BC) based on expression of three markers (ROBO1, WNT5A, and CDC42BPB). Setting P_BC = 0.45 as the cutoff for a positive test, urine testing using the three-marker panel had overall 88% sensitivity and 92% specificity in the training cohort. The accuracy of the three-marker panel in the independent validation cohort yielded an AUC of 0.87 and overall 83% sensitivity and 89% specificity.Conclusions: Urine-based molecular diagnostics using this three-marker signature could provide a valuable adjunct to cystoscopy and may lead to a reduction of unnecessary procedures for bladder cancer diagnosis. Clin Cancer Res; 23(14); 3700-10. ©2017 AACR.

Validation of a DNA Methylation-Mutation Urine Assay to Select Patients with Hematuria for Cystoscopy

PURPOSE

Only 3% to 28% of patients referred to the urology clinic for hematuria are diagnosed with bladder cancer. Cystoscopy leads to high diagnostic costs and a high patient burden. Therefore, to improve the selection of patients for cystoscopy and reduce costs and over testing we aimed to validate a recently developed diagnostic urine assay.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Included in study were 200 patients from a total of 3 European countries who underwent cystoscopy for hematuria, including 97 with bladder cancer and 103 with nonmalignant findings. Voided urine samples were collected prior to cystoscopy. DNA was extracted and analyzed for mutations in FGFR3, TERT and HRAS, and methylation of OTX1, ONECUT2 and TWIST1. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between predictor variables and bladder cancer.

RESULTS

Combining the methylation and mutation markers with age led to an AUC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-0.99) with 93% sensitivity and 86% specificity, and an optimism corrected AUC of 0.95. The AUC was higher for T1 or greater tumors compared to Ta tumors (0.99 vs 0.93). The AUC was also higher for high grade tumors compared to low grade tumors (1.00 vs 0.93). Overall negative predictive value was 99% based on the 5% to 10% prevalence of bladder cancer in patients with hematuria. This would lead to a 77% reduction in diagnostic cystoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyzing hematuria patients for the risk of bladder cancer using novel molecular markers may lead to a reduction in diagnostic cystoscopy. Combining methylation analysis (OTX1, ONECUT2 and TWIST1) with mutation analysis (FGFR3, TERT and HRAS) and patient age resulted in a validated accurate prediction model.

Long-term outcomes in a high-risk bladder cancer screening cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long-term outcomes in patients at high risk of bladder cancer who participated in a bladder cancer screening trial.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients who were classified as high risk based on age ≥50 years, ≥10 pack-years (combination of packs of tobacco per day and years of smoking) smoking and/or ≥15 years environmental exposure were enrolled in a one-time screening trial using a nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22) assay, between March 2006 and November 2007, at Dallas Veterans Affairs Hospital. We assessed the subsequent detection of smoking-related malignancies (bladder, lung and renal cell carcinoma [RCC]) in these patients up until 31 January 2014. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with bladder cancer diagnosis and survival.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 925 patients, of whom 886 (95.8%) were smokers and 613 (66.3%) had received hazardous occupational exposure. At initial screening, 57 patients had a positive NMP22 test and two had bladder cancer. Another nine patients (1.0%) were diagnosed with bladder cancer during the median follow-up of 78.4 months. The bladder cancers were non-invasive (Ta) and seven were low grade and four high grade. RCC and lung cancer were diagnosed in 10 (1.1%) and 18 patients (1.9%), respectively. A total of 134 patients died, including three from RCC and 12 from lung cancer, but none from bladder cancer. Factors associated with worse overall survival on multivariable analysis were: lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 5.06; P < 0.001), microscopic or gross haematuria (HR 1.66; P = 0.006 and HR 2.11; P = 0.02, respectively), and >60 pack-years smoking history (HR 4.51; P = 0.037).

CONCLUSION

At 6.5 years of follow-up, no patients in this high-risk cohort developed muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Lung cancer, haematuria and >60 pack-years smoking history are independent predictors of mortality. Other-cause mortality is an important consideration in patients undergoing bladder cancer screening.

A segregation index combining phenotypic (clinical characteristics) and genotypic (gene expression) biomarkers from a urine sample to triage out patients presenting with hematuria who have a low probability of urothelial carcinoma

Background

Hematuria can be symptomatic of urothelial carcinoma (UC) and ruling out patients with benign causes during primary evaluation is challenging. Patients with hematuria undergoing urological work-ups place significant clinical and financial burdens on healthcare systems. Current clinical evaluation involves processes that individually lack the sensitivity for accurate determination of UC. Algorithms and nomograms combining genotypic and phenotypic variables have largely focused on cancer detection and failed to improve performance. This study aimed to develop and validate a model incorporating both genotypic and phenotypic variables with high sensitivity and a high negative predictive value (NPV) combined to triage out patients with hematuria who have a low probability of having UC and may not require urological work-up.

Methods

Expression of IGFBP5, HOXA13, MDK, CDK1 and CXCR2 genes in a voided urine sample (genotypic) and age, gender, frequency of macrohematuria and smoking history (phenotypic) data were collected from 587 patients with macrohematuria. Logistic regression was used to develop predictive models for UC. A combined genotypic-phenotypic model (G + P INDEX) was compared with genotypic (G INDEX) and phenotypic (P INDEX) models. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) defined the performance of each INDEX: high sensitivity, NPV >0.97 and a high test-negative rate was considered optimal for triaging out patients. The robustness of the G + P INDEX was tested in 40 microhematuria patients without UC.

Results

The G + P INDEX offered a bias-corrected AUC of 0.86 compared with 0.61 and 0.83, for the P and G INDEXs respectively. When the test-negative rate was 0.4, the G + P INDEX (sensitivity = 0.95; NPV = 0.98) offered improved performance compared with the G INDEX (sensitivity = 0.86; NPV = 0.96). 80% of patients with microhematuria who did not have UC were correctly triaged out using the G + P INDEX, therefore not requiring a full urological work-up.

Conclusion

The adoption of G + P INDEX enables a significant change in clinical utility. G + P INDEX can be used to segregate hematuria patients with a low probability of UC with a high degree of confidence in the primary evaluation. Triaging out low-probability patients early significantly reduces the need for expensive and invasive work-ups, thereby lowering diagnosis-related adverse events and costs.