Predicting the Burden of Revision Knee Arthroplasty: Simulation of a 20-Year Horizon

Global mapping of institutional and hospital-based (Level II-IV) arthroplasty registries: a scoping review

PURPOSE

Four joint arthroplasty registries (JARs) levels exist based on the recorded data type. Level I JARs are national registries that record primary data. Hospital or institutional JARs (Level II-IV) document further data (patient-reported outcomes, demographic, radiographic). A worldwide list of Level II-IV JARs must be created to effectively assess and categorize these data.

METHODS

Our study is a systematic scoping review that followed the PRISMA guidelines and included 648 studies. Based on their publications, the study aimed to map the existing Level II-IV JARs worldwide. The secondary aim was to record their lifetime, publications' number and frequency and recognise differences with national JARs.

RESULTS

One hundred five Level II-IV JARs were identified. Forty-eight hospital-based, 45 institutional, and 12 regional JARs. Fifty JARs were found in America, 39 in Europe, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and one in Africa. They have published 485 cohorts, 91 case-series, 49 case-control, nine cross-sectional studies, eight registry protocols and six randomized trials. Most cohort studies were retrospective. Twenty-three per cent of papers studied patient-reported outcomes, 21.45% surgical complications, 13.73% postoperative clinical and 5.25% radiographic outcomes, and 11.88% were survival analyses. Forty-four JARs have published only one paper. Level I JARs primarily publish implant revision risk annual reports, while Level IV JARs collect comprehensive data to conduct retrospective cohort studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study mapping all Level II-IV JARs worldwide. Most JARs are found in Europe and America, reporting on retrospective cohorts, but only a few report on studies systematically.

Are joint replacement registries associated with burden of revision changes? A real-world panel data regression analysis

OBJECTIVES

The association of joint replacement registries with outcomes such as revision burden is uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate whether joint replacement registries are associated with the burden of revision changes while controlling for confounders that could affect the association.

DESIGN

A longitudinal study involving a combination of cross-sectional and time series data from 1980 to 2018. The study was a panel regression analysis using the difference-in-difference method.

SETTING

Data from countries with joint replacement registries and countries without joint replacement registries were used. Registry data were obtained from joint replacement registries' annual reports, while non-registry data were obtained from each included country's pooled hospitals' annual revision burden reported in the literature.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in revision burden from 1980 to 2018 was the outcome measure. The revision burden in the registry periods of registry countries was compared with the non-registry periods of registry and non-registry countries.

RESULTS

Data were obtained from 12 registry periods and 8 non-registry periods. The average difference in revision burden in the registry periods of registry countries relative to the non-registry periods of registry and non-registry countries was statistically significant for hip, -3.80 (95% CI (-2.50 to -5.10); p<0.001) percentage points and knee, -1.63 (95% CI (-1.00 to -2.30); p<0.001) percentage points. This translates to a 19.30%, and 21.85% reduction in revision burden for hip and knee registries, for the whole sampling period.

CONCLUSION

Joint replacement registries are associated with a significant reduction in the burden of revision. Although revision burden reduces over time even without the registries, the establishment of joint replacement registries is associated with an increased reduction. The establishment of joint replacement registries in non-registry countries would be a worthwhile decision as it will further improve the outcomes of arthroplasty surgeries.

Epidemiology of Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty in the United States, 2012 to 2019

Background

As primary total knee arthroplasty volume continues to increase, so will the number of revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) procedures. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated perspective on the incidence, indications, and financial burden of rTKA in the United States.

Material and methods

This was a retrospective epidemiologic analysis using the National Inpatient Sample. International Classification of Diseases ninth and tenth revision codes were used to identify patients who underwent rTKA and create cohorts based on rTKA indications from 2012 to 2019. National and regional trends for length of stay, cost, and discharge location were evaluated.

Results

A total of 505,160 rTKA procedures were identified. The annual number of rTKA procedures increased by 29.6% over the study period (56,490 to 73,205). The top 3 indications for rTKA were aseptic loosening (23.1%), periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) (20.4%), and instability (11.0%). Over the study period, the proportion of patients discharged to skilled nursing facility decreased from 31.7% to 24.1% (P < .001). Hospital length of stay decreased from 4.0 days in 2012 to 3.8 days in 2019 (P < .001). Hospital costs increased by $1300 from $25,730 to $27,077 (P < .001). The proportion of rTKA cases performed at urban academic centers increased (52.1% to 74.3%, P < .001) while that at urban nonacademic centers decreased (39.0% to 19.2%, P < .001).

Conclusion

The top 3 indications for rTKA were aseptic loosening, PJI, and instability, with PJI becoming the most common indication in 2019. These cases are increasingly being performed at urban academic centers and away from urban nonacademic centers.

Level of Evidence

3 (Retrospective cohort study).

Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty With the Use of Restricted Kinematic Alignment Protocol: Surgical Technique and Initial Results

Purpose: Kinematic alignment (KA) for primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has been shown to provide equivalent or better results to mechanical alignment (MA). The use of KA in revision TKA to restore the individual knee anatomy, kinematics, and soft-tissue balance, has not been documented yet. The purpose of this study is to describe the technique for performing TKA revision using the restricted KA (rKA) protocol and to report (1) rerevision rate and adverse events, (2) patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and (3) radiological signs of implant dysfunction related to this technique.

Methods: The rKA protocol was used in 43 selected TKA revisions cases suitable for the technique. Adverse events, reoperation, revision, and their causes were recorded. In addition, PROMs assessed by WOMAC score and radiographic evaluation to identify signs of implant dysfunction were documented at last follow-up.

Results: After a mean follow-up of 4.0 years (0.9–7.7, ±2), only one rerevision (2.3%) was required for persisting instability (polyethylene liner exchange from posterior stabilized to a semi-constrained). Short-cemented stems were used for both the femur and tibia in 28 (65%) cases, for the femur alone in 13 (30%) cases, and no stems in two cases. In 31 (72%) cases, a standard posterior stabilized tibial insert was used, while 12 (28%) cases required a semi-constrained insert. The mean WOMAC score was 34.4 (0–80, ±21.7). Mean postoperative arithmetic hip-knee-ankle angle (HKA) was 0.8° varus (from 5° varus to 4° valgus), mean mechanical distal femoral angle was 1.7° valgus (from 2° varus to 5° valgus), and mean mechanical tibia proximal angle was 2.2° varus (from 5° varus to 1° valgus). No radiological evidence of aseptic loosening or periprosthetic radiolucencies were identified.

Conclusion: Although current revision TKA implants are not ideal for revision TKA performed with rKA, they are an appealing alternative to MA, especially in cases of early, non-wear-related, unsuccessful MA TKAs. rKA TKA revision using short-cemented stems in conjunction with meticulous preoperative planning is safe in the mid-term.

Level of evidence: IV

Infection and periprosthetic fracture are the leading causes of failure after aseptic revision total knee arthroplasty

AIM

The purpose of this study was to clarify the medium to long term survival of aseptic revision total knee arthroplasty (RTKAs) and identify the common modes of failure following RTKAs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A multi-center, retrospective study included all aseptic RTKAs performed at three tertiary referral hospitals between 2003 and 2016. Patients were excluded if the revision was for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) or they had previously undergone revision surgery. Minor revisions not involving the tibial or femoral components were also excluded. Demographics, surgical data and post-operative outcomes were recorded and analyzed. Survival analysis was performed and the reasons for revision failure identified.

RESULTS

Of 235 aseptic RTKAs identified, 14.8% underwent re-revision at mean follow-up of 8.3 years. Survivorship of RTKA was 93% at 2 years and 83% at 8 years. Average age at revision was 72.9 years (range 53-91.5). The most common reasons for failure following RTKA were periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) (40%), periprosthetic fracture (25.7%) and aseptic loosening (14.3%). Of those whose RTKA failed, the average survival was 3.33 years (8 days-11.4 years). No demographic or surgical factors were found to influence RTKA survival on univariate or multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

PJI and periprosthetic fracture are the leading causes of re-revision surgery following aseptic revision TKA. Efforts to improve outcomes of aseptic revision TKA should focus on these areas, particularly prevention of PJI.

A projection of primary knee replacement in Denmark from 2020 to 2050

Background and purpose - The incidence of knee replacements (KRs) has increased in the past decades. Previous studies have forecast a continuous and almost exponential rise in the use of KRs, but this rise must cease at some point. We estimated when and at what incidence the use of KRs will plateau in Denmark.Patients and methods - We retrieved 138,223 primary KRs conducted from 1997 to 2019 from the Danish Knee Arthroplasty Registry. Censuses from 1997 to 2019 as well as population projections from 2020 through 2050 were collected from Statistics Denmark. We applied logistic and Gompertz regression analysis to the data to estimate the future incidence until 2050 with root mean squared error (RMSE) as a quantitative measurement of the models' fit.Results - The Danish incidence of KRs from 1997 to 2009 increased by more than 300%, but has stalled since 2009. Logistic and Gompertz regression had an RMSE of 14 and 15 indicating that these models fitted the data well. Logistic and Gompertz regressions estimated that the maximum incidence will be reached in 2030 at 250 (95% prediction interval [PI]) 159-316) KRs per 10⁵ or in 2035 at 260 (PI 182-336) KRs per 10⁵, respectively.Interpretation - The Danish incidence of KRs seems set to plateau within the coming decades. Countries experiencing a current exponential rise at a lower incidence may benefit from this study's projection when forecasting their future demand for KRs.

Recommendations for return to sports after total hip arthroplasty are becoming less restrictive as implants improve

INTRODUCTION

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) surgeries are expected to exponentially increase in the upcoming years, likely because of the overall broader indication of THAs. With these developments, an increasing number of younger (< 50 years) and active patients will receive surgical interventions, and expectations for an active lifestyle will accordingly increase. In addition, surgeons now have a growing array of techniques and implant materials to choose from. Despite these developments, evidence to provide the best standard-of-care to patients with high expectations for return to sports (RTS) is scarce and urgently needed. What recommendations do arthroplasty surgeons currently make to patients with high return to sports expectations, what factors may influence their recommendations and what surgical techniques and implant specifications are considered favorable in the treatment of patients with a more active lifestyle? This study was conducted to analyze the current recommendations, patient assessment, and patient counseling after THA to identify trends and relevant factors for surgical decision-making in patients with high-RTS expectations.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We designed a questionnaire comprising five general items and 19 specific items that included 46 sub-items for hip arthroplasty and conducted a survey among 300 German surgeons specialized in arthroplasty at the German Arthroplasty Society (AE) to assess expert opinions, recommendations, surgical decision-making, and patient counseling for patients with high expectations for RTS after THA.

RESULTS

The majority of surgeons (81.9%) were in favor of RTS after THA. Risks associated with sports after THA were considered minimal (1%), with periprosthetic fractures ranking highest, followed by hip dislocation and polyethylene wear. Some surgical decision-making was influenced by high-RTS expectations in regard to implant fixation, stem type, femoral head diameter, and bearing-surface tribology. We observed an increasingly liberal counseling of patients for high-impact sports.

CONCLUSION

With the improvement of implants and surgical techniques, surgeons are more willing to encourage patients to adopt a more active lifestyle. However, the true long-term limitations need further investigation in future studies.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

5 Expert opinions.

The projected volume of primary and revision total knee arthroplasty will place an immense burden on future health care systems over the next 30 years

PURPOSE

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) rates have increased substantially in the recent decades worldwide, with Germany being one of the leading countries in the prevalence of TKA. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of treatment changes during the last decade and to project the expected burden of primary and revision TKA (rTKA) for the next 30 years.

METHODS

Comprehensive nationwide data from Germany was used to quantify primary and revision TKA rates as a function of age and gender. Projections were performed with use of a Poisson regression models and a combination of exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models on historical procedure rates in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2050.

RESULTS

The incidence rate of primary TKAs is projected to increase by around 43% to 299 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 231-368], leading to a projected total number of 225,957 primary TKAs in 2050 (95% CI 178,804-276,442). This increase has been related to a growing number of TKA performed in male patients, with the highest increase modelled in patients between 50 and 65 years of age. At the same time, the annual total number of revision procedures is forecast to increase even more rapidly by almost 90%, accounting for 47,313 (95% CI 15,741-78,885; IR = 62.7 per 100,000, 95% CI 20.8-104.5) procedures by 2050. Those numbers are primarily associated with a rising number of rTKAs secondary to periprosthetic joint infection (PJI).

CONCLUSIONS

Using this country- specific forecast approach, a rising number of primary TKA and an even more rapidly growing number of rTKA, especially for PJI, has been projected until 2050, which will inevitably provide a huge challenge for the future health care system. As many other industrialized nations will face similar demographic and procedure-specific developments, these forecasts should be alarming for many health care systems worldwide and emphasize the tremendous need for an appropriate financial and human resource management in the future.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, prognostic study, economic and decision analysis.

Recommendations for Patients with High Return to Sports Expectations after TKA Remain Controversial

(1) Background: Improved surgical techniques and implants in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) have led to broader indications for surgical interventions of osteoarthritis of the knee. There is a growing young and active patient subgroup with high return to sports (RTS) expectations after TKA. The current lack of evidence regarding RTS capacity in this patient cohort, requires the consolidation of experts' opinions and experiences to address the special needs among these patients. The aim of this study was to assess current expert opinions in regard to preoperative patient assessment, surgical technique and decision-making and patient counseling for these patients. (2) Methods: We performed a survey among surgeons specialized in arthroplasty with a questionnaire designed to assess current recommendations, surgical techniques, and implant preferences as well as patient counseling in patients with high expectations for RTS after TKA. (3) Results: The majority of surgeons are in favor of return to low-impact sports after TKA within 3 to 6 months. Some even recommend return to high-impact sports. Despite improvement of surgical techniques and implants, we observed no clear preference for a single surgical technique or implant specification in active patients. (4) Conclusions: Current evidence for sports-associated complications after TKA is scarce. Despite a growing array of surgical techniques and implants, the available literature is still controversial with no single surgical technique or TKA design distinguishing itself clearly from others. Surgeons' recommendations are mostly based on their experience and training. Nonetheless, we observed growing faith in modern implants with some surgeons even recommending high-impact sports after TKA.

Survival and functional outcome of revision total knee arthroplasty with a total stabilizer knee system: minimum 5 years of follow-up

INTRODUCTION

Revision knee arthroplasty surgery can range from patella resurfacing or polyethylene exchange, to staged revision and revision to a more constrained implant. Subsequently, the ability to elicit outcomes becomes difficult to obtain and hence information on functional outcome and survivorship for all modes of failure with a single revision system is valuable.

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed 100 consecutive revision knee replacements that were converted from a primary knee replacement to a Triathlon total stabilizer (TS) knee system (Stryker Orthopaedics, Mahwah, NJ). Inclusion criteria included failure of a primary knee replacement of any cause converted to a Stryker TS knee system. Midterm outcome of at least 5 years was required. Implants survivorship, Oxford Knee Score (OKS), Forgotten Joint Score (FJS-12), Short Form (SF-) 12, reported patient satisfaction and radiographic analysis were recorded.

RESULTS

The all-cause survival rate at 5 years was 89.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87.3 to 90.7]. The all-cause survival rate was generally static after the first 4 years. The mean OKS was 27 (SD 11.9, range 0 to 46), FJS was 32.3 (SD 30.4, range 0 to 100), SF-12 physical component summary was 40.6 (SD 17.6, range 23.9 to 67.1), and mental component summary was 48.3 (SD 15.5, range 23.9 to 69.1). Reported patient satisfaction in patients who were not re-revised was 82%.

CONCLUSION

The midterm survivorship of cemented Stryker Triathlon TS knee revision for all-cause mode of failure is good to excellent; however, future follow-up is required to ensure this survivorship is observed into the long term. Despite limited functional outcome, overall patient satisfaction rates are high.

Rates of Total Joint Replacement in the United States: Future Projections to 2020–2040 Using the National Inpatient Sample

Objective.

To project future total hip and knee joint arthroplasty (THA, TKA) use in the United States to 2040.

Methods.

We used the 2000–2014 US National Inpatient Sample (NIS) combined with Census Bureau data to develop projections for primary THA and TKA from 2020 to 2040 using polynomial regression to account for the nonlinearity and interactions between the variables, assuming the underlying distribution of the number of THA/TKA to be Poisson distributed. We performed sensitivity analyses using a negative binomial regression to account for overdispersion.

Results.

Predicted total annual counts (95% prediction intervals) for THA in the United States by 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2040 are (in thousands): 498 (475, 523), 652 (610, 696), 850 (781, 925), and 1429 (1265, 1615), respectively. For primary TKA, predicted total annual counts for 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2040 are (in thousands): 1065 (937, 1211), 1272 (1200, 1710), 1921 (1530, 2410), and 3416 (2459, 4745), respectively. Compared to the available 2014 NIS numbers, the percent increases in projected total annual US use for primary THA and TKA in 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2040 are as follows: primary THA, by 34%, 75%, 129%, and 284%; and primary TKA, 56%, 110%, 182%, and 401%, respectively. Primary THA and TKA use is projected to increase for both females and males, in all age groups.

Conclusion.

Significant increases in use of THA and TKA are expected in the United States in the future, if the current trend continues. The increased use is evident across age groups in both females and males. A policy change may be needed to meet increased demand.