Comparative performance of three TSE rapid tests for surveillance in healthy sheep affected by scrapie

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in goats: is PrP rapid test sensitivity affected by genotype?

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) surveillance in goats relies on tests initially approved for cattle, subsequently assessed for sheep, and approval extrapolated for use in "small ruminants." The current EU-approved immunodetection tests employ antibodies against various epitopes of the prion protein PrPSc, which is encoded by the host PRNP gene. The caprine PRNP gene is polymorphic, mostly at codons different from the ovine PRNP. The EU goat population is much more heterogeneous than the sheep population, with more PRNP-related polymorphisms, and with marked breed-related differences. The ability of the current tests to detect disease-specific PrPSc generated against these different genetic backgrounds is currently assumed, rather than proven. We examined whether common polymorphisms within the goat PRNP gene might have any adverse effect on the relative performance of EU-approved rapid tests. The sample panel comprised goats from the UK, Cyprus, France, and Italy, with either experimental or naturally acquired scrapie at both the preclinical and/or unknown and clinical stages of disease. Test sensitivity was significantly lower and more variable when compared using samples from animals that were preclinical or of unknown status. However, all of the rapid tests included in our study were able to correctly identify all samples from animals in the clinical stages of disease, apart from samples from animals polymorphic for serine or aspartic acid at codon 146, in which the performance of the Bio-Rad tests was profoundly affected. Our data show that some polymorphisms may adversely affect one test and not another, as well as underline the dangers of extrapolating from other species.

Modelling of strategies for genetic control of scrapie in sheep: The importance of population structure

Scrapie is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep and an example of a disease that may be controlled through breeding for disease resistance. Member states of the European Union have introduced strategies for breeding against scrapie based on the selection of genetically resistant breeding rams. An ambitious strategy adopted in The Netherlands consisted of selecting resistant rams for breeding throughout both breeding and production sectors. Mathematical modelling of the effect of a breeding program on the spreading capacity of scrapie in a national flock is needed for making assessments on how long a breeding strategy needs to be maintained to achieve disease control. Here we describe such a model applied to the Dutch situation, with the use of data on the genetic content of the Dutch sheep population as well as on scrapie occurrence in this population. We show that the time needed for obtaining scrapie control depends crucially on two parameters measuring sheep population structure: the between-flock heterogeneity in genotype frequencies, and the heterogeneity of mixing (contact rates) between sheep flocks. Estimating the first parameter from Dutch genetic survey data and assuming scenario values for the second one, enables model prediction of the time needed to achieve scrapie control in The Netherlands.

EU-approved rapid tests might underestimate bovine spongiform encephalopathy infection in goats

We report the diagnostic sensitivity of 3 EU-approved rapid tests (ELISAs; 1 from IDEXX and 2 from Bio-Rad) for the detection of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diseases in goats. Ninety-eight goat brainstem samples were tested. All the rapid tests had 100% specificity and ≥80% sensitivity, with the IDEXX test significantly more sensitive than the 2 Bio-Rad tests. All tests detected 100% of samples from goats with clinical scrapie, but missed 8% (IDEXX) to 33% (Bio-Rad SG) of samples from preclinical goats. Importantly, only IDEXX picked up all samples from clinical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-infected goats, whereas the other 2 rapid tests missed 15% (Bio-Rad SG) to 25% (Bio-Rad SAP). These results show that a fraction of preclinical scrapie infections are likely missed by EU surveillance, with sensitivity of detection strongly dependent on the choice of the rapid test. Moreover, a significant proportion of clinical BSE infections are underestimated by using either Bio-Rad test. Assuming that the same sensitivity on preclinical goats would also occur in BSE-infected goats, our data suggest that IDEXX is likely the most sensitive test for detecting preclinical field cases of BSE infection in goats, although with an 8% failure rate. These results raise some concerns about the reliability of current EU surveillance figures on BSE infection in goats.

Abnormalities in Brainstem Auditory Evoked Potentials in Sheep with Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies and Lack of a Clear Pathological Relationship

Scrapie is transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), which causes neurological signs in sheep, but confirmatory diagnosis is usually made postmortem on examination of the brain for TSE-associated markers like vacuolar changes and disease-associated prion protein (PrP(Sc)). The objective of this study was to evaluate whether testing of brainstem auditory evoked potentials (BAEPs) at two different sound levels could aid in the clinical diagnosis of TSEs in sheep naturally or experimentally infected with different TSE strains [classical and atypical scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)] and whether any BAEP abnormalities were associated with TSE-associated markers in the auditory pathways. BAEPs were recorded from 141 clinically healthy sheep of different breeds and ages that tested negative for TSEs on postmortem tests to establish a reference range and to allow comparison with 30 sheep clinically affected or exposed to classical scrapie (CS) without disease confirmation (test group 1) and 182 clinically affected sheep with disease confirmation (test group 2). Abnormal BAEPs were found in 7 sheep (23%) of group 1 and 42 sheep (23%) of group 2. The proportion of sheep with abnormalities did not appear to be influenced by TSE strain or PrP(Sc) gene polymorphisms. When the magnitude of TSE-associated markers in the auditory pathways was compared between a subset of 12 sheep with and 12 sheep without BAEP abnormalities in group 2, no significant differences in the total PrP(Sc) or vacuolation scores in the auditory pathways could be found. However, the data suggested that there was a difference in the PrP(Sc) scores depending on the TSE strain because PrP(Sc) scores were significantly higher in sheep with BAEP abnormalities infected with classical and L-type BSE, but not with CS. The results indicated that BAEPs may be abnormal in sheep infected with TSEs but the test is not specific for TSEs and that neither vacuolation nor PrP(Sc) accumulation appears to be responsible for the clinical abnormalities.

Investigation of a Simple Model for Within-Flock Transmission of Scrapie

Genetic control programs for scrapie in sheep build on solid knowledge of how susceptibility to scrapie is modulated by the prion protein genotype at the level of an individual sheep. In order to satisfactorily analyze the effectivity of control programs at the population level, insight is needed at the flock level, i.e., how the grouping of sheep in flocks affects the population-level transmission risk. In particular, one would like to understand how this risk is affected by between-flock differences in genotype frequency distribution. A first step is to model the scrapie transmission risk within a flock as a function of the flock genotype profile. Here we do so by estimating parameters for a model of within-flock transmission using genotyping data on Dutch flocks affected by scrapie. We show that the data are consistent with a relatively simple transmission model assuming horizontal transmission and homogeneous mixing between animals. The model expresses the basic reproduction number for within-flock scrapie as a weighted average of genotype-specific susceptibilities, multiplied by a single overall transmission parameter. The value of the overall transmission parameter may vary between flocks to account for random between-flock variation in non-genetic determinants such as management practice. Here we provide an estimate of its mean value and variation for Dutch flocks.

The evolution of the prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain using surveillance data between 2005 and 2012

After the decline of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB), scrapie remains the most prevalent animal Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) present in GB. A number of control measures have been implemented for classical scrapie, and since 2005 there has been a large reduction in the number of observed cases. The objective of this study is to estimate two measures of disease frequency using up to date surveillance data collected during and after the implementation of different control measures established since 2004, and breeding for resistance schemes that ran from 2001 until 2009. This would enable an assessment of the effectiveness of both the breeding for resistance programme and the compulsory eradication measures in reducing the prevalence of scrapie in GB. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the rapid post-mortem test for scrapie indicated that it detected scrapie in the last 25% of the incubation period. A back-calculation model was developed to estimate the prevalence of infection at animal and flock-level. The results of the model indicated a mean drop of infection prevalence of 31% each year, leading to a 90% drop in infection prevalence between 2005, with an estimate of 5737 infected sheep in GB in 2012. The risks of classical scrapie infection in animals with genotypes of National Scrapie Plan Types I-IV (all other genotypes), relative to Type V (all genotypes containing V136 R154 Q171 and not A136 R154 R171), were estimated to be: 0, 0.0008, 0.07, and 0.21 respectively. The model estimated a very low rate of reporting of clinical suspects and a large decline from 2007 of the probability of a sheep being reported as a clinical suspect. The model also estimated that the expected number of sheep holdings with classical scrapie in 2012 was 215 (95% confidence interval: 33-437), out of a total of approximately 72,000 sheep holdings in GB. Model estimates indicate that the prevalence in 2012 has dropped to 10% of that in 2005, showing the effectiveness of the control measures. It also shows a bias in the destination of infected animals, with the majority of infected animals being detected in the fallen stock surveillance stream, and an extremely low proportion of animals detected as clinical suspects; this is very important in terms of the design of surveillance schemes for classical scrapie.