Validation of the Lacaine-Huguier predictive score for choledocholithiasis: prospective study of 380 patients

Performance of the predictive criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis at a secondary care public hospital in the State of Nuevo León, Mexico

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Currently there is no ideal diagnostic/therapeutic approach for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. The primary aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of the criteria for predicting choledocholithiasis proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted that included 352 patients seen at a secondary care public healthcare institution in Monterrey, Nuevo León, that treats an open population and does not have endoscopic ultrasound or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography at its disposal.

RESULTS

The most frequent predictor presented by the patients was abnormal liver function tests (90.63%), and with their use alone, sensitivity was higher than that of all the predictors analyzed (91.41%). In addition, the finding of common bile duct stones on ultrasound imaging was the only predictor independently associated with the confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis. Regarding the general performance of the 2019 criteria, the high-risk category had 68.75% sensitivity, 52.08% specificity, a positive predictive value of 79.28%, a negative predictive value of 38.46%, diagnostic accuracy of 64.20%, and a confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis in 79.28% of the patients of that risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

The study corroborated that the presence of choledocholithiasis could be predicted using the choledocholithiasis predictors and risk categories proposed by the ASGE, with acceptable accuracy, in accordance with the standards suggested by those same guidelines.

Compliance to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography according to current guidelines and adverse outcomes of suspected choledocholithiasis in an acute care setting

INTRODUCTION

Common bile duct (CBD) stones are common among patients who underwent cholecystectomy. However, few studies have investigated the compliance with the guidelines for the prediction of choledochlithiasis (CL). Therefore, we aim to study the compliance with the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines for the identification of CL in a major hospital in Saudi Arabia's capital.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review on adult patients admitted to emergency department at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh with gallstones between January 2016 and January 2019. Our data collection includes demographics and level of suspicion based on Transabdominal Ultrasound, liver function, amylase, and lipase tests. We then determined the likelihood of CL based on ASGE guidelines in order to assess the adherence to ASGE guidelines, the procedure's outcomes and adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 826 patients who met the study's criteria: 384 (46.4%) were compliant, while 442 (53.6%) were non-compliant with ASGE guidelines. There was a significant association between compliance and the presence of stones on ERCP in high likelihood patients. 48 (21.3%) of total ERCP procedures among all the likelihoods had adverse outcomes. 13 (40.6%) of non-compliant ERCP performed in intermediate likelihood have experienced adverse outcomes. There was a significant association between having adverse outcomes and being non-complaint with ASGE guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Despite ASGE guidelines' recommendations, a third of high likelihood cases and the majority of intermediate likelihood cases were non-compliant. Additionally, the current guidelines for the intermediate group are somewhat vague, giving ample leeway for patients to be placed in the intermediate group, which might subject them to unnecessary interventions. To conclude, there was a great lack of compliance with ASGE guidelines that is significantly associated with adverse outcomes. Hence, reassessing the current guidelines and monitoring healthcare facilities' compliance with the updated guidelines is highly recommended.

2020 World Society of Emergency Surgery updated guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute calculus cholecystitis

BACKGROUND

Acute calculus cholecystitis (ACC) has a high incidence in the general population. The presence of several areas of uncertainty, along with the availability of new evidence, prompted the current update of the 2016 WSES (World Society of Emergency Surgery) Guidelines on ACC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The WSES president appointed four members as a scientific secretariat, four members as an organization committee and four members as a scientific committee, choosing them from the expert affiliates of WSES. Relevant key questions were constructed, and the task force produced drafts of each section based on the best scientific evidence from PubMed and EMBASE Library; recommendations were developed in order to answer these key questions. The quality of evidence and strength of recommendations were reviewed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria (see https://www.gradeworkinggroup.org/ ). All the statements were presented, discussed and voted upon during the Consensus Conference at the 6th World Congress of the World Society of Emergency Surgery held in Nijmegen (NL) in May 2019. A revised version of the statements was voted upon via an online questionnaire until consensus was reached.

RESULTS

The pivotal role of surgery is confirmed, including in high-risk patients. When compared with the WSES 2016 guidelines, the role of gallbladder drainage is reduced, despite the considerable technical improvements available. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) should be the standard of care whenever possible, even in subgroups of patients who are considered fragile, such as the elderly; those with cardiac disease, renal disease and cirrhosis; or those who are generally at high risk for surgery. Subtotal cholecystectomy is safe and represents a valuable option in cases of difficult gallbladder removal.

CONCLUSIONS, KNOWLEDGE GAPS AND RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS

ELC has a central role in the management of patients with ACC. The value of surgical treatment for high-risk patients should lead to a distinction between high-risk patients and patients who are not suitable for surgery. Further evidence on the role of clinical judgement and the use of clinical scores as adjunctive tools to guide treatment of high-risk patients and patients who are not suitable for surgery is required. The development of local policies for safe laparoscopic cholecystectomy is recommended.

2017 WSES and SICG guidelines on acute calcolous cholecystitis in elderly population

Background

Gallstone disease is very common afflicting 20 million people in the USA. In Europe, the overall incidence of gallstone disease is 18.8% in women and 9.5% in men. The frequency of gallstones related disease increases by age. The elderly population is increasing worldwide.

Aim

The present guidelines aims to report the results of the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) and Italian Surgical Society for Elderly (SICG) consensus conference on acute calcolous cholecystitis (ACC) focused on elderly population.

Material and methods

The 2016 WSES guidelines on ACC were used as baseline; six questions have been used to investigate the particularities in elderly population; the answers have been developed in terms of differences compared to the general population and to statements of the 2016 WSES Guidelines. The Consensus Conference discusses, voted, and modified the statements. International experts contributed in the elaboration of final statements and evaluation of the level of scientific evidences.

Results

The quality of the studies available decreases when we approach ACC in elderly. Same admission laparoscopic cholecystectomy should be suggested for elderly people with ACC; frailty scores as well as clinical and surgical risk scores could be adopted but no general consensus exist. The role of cholecystostomy is uncertain.

Discussion and conclusions

The evaluation of pro and cons for surgery or for alternative treatments in elderly suffering of ACC is more complex than in young people; also, the oldest old age is not a contraindication for surgery; however, a larger use of frailty and surgical risk scores could contribute to reach the best clinical judgment by the surgeon. The present guidelines offer the opportunity to share with the scientific community a baseline for future researches and discussion.

2016 WSES guidelines on acute calculous cholecystitis

Acute calculus cholecystitis is a very common disease with several area of uncertainty. The World Society of Emergency Surgery developed extensive guidelines in order to cover grey areas. The diagnostic criteria, the antimicrobial therapy, the evaluation of associated common bile duct stones, the identification of “high risk” patients, the surgical timing, the type of surgery, and the alternatives to surgery are discussed. Moreover the algorithm is proposed: as soon as diagnosis is made and after the evaluation of choledocholitiasis risk, laparoscopic cholecystectomy should be offered to all patients exception of those with high risk of morbidity or mortality. These Guidelines must be considered as an adjunctive tool for decision but they are not substitute of the clinical judgement for the individual patient.

A scoring system for the prediction of choledocholithiasis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Techniques for diagnosing choledocholithiasis pose significant morbidity and mortality risks.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a clinical scoring system for predicting choledocholithiasis.

DESIGN

Data from a prospectively maintained database of all patients with gallstones.

SETTING

Patients were admitted to the general surgery department of a military hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled consecutive patients with symptomatic gallstones, biliary pancreatitis, obstructive jaundice, or cholangitis, who subsequently underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive model was developed from a scoring system using their imaging and laboratory data. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) or intraoperative cholangiography were used for confirmatory diagnoses. The predictive efficacy of the scoring system was validated using a retrospective cohort of 272 patients.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive accuracy of the scoring system.

RESULTS

We enrolled 155 patients in the development group. The common bile duct diameter, alkaline phosphatase of >=200 IU, elevated bilirubin levels, alanine transaminase of >=220 IU, and male age of >=50 years were significantly associated with choledocholithiasis and were included in the scoring system. Ninety-six patients (35%) had scores of >=8 (high risk), 86 patients (32%) had scores of 4-7 (intermediate risk), and 27 patients (10%) had scores of 1-3 (low risk). In the validation cohort, the positive predictive value for a score of >=8 was 91.7%, and the scoring system had an area under the curve of 0.896.

CONCLUSION

Scores of >=8 were strongly correlated with choledocholithiasis in the developmental and validation groups, which indicates that our scoring system may be useful for predicting the need for therapeutic ERCP. However, prospective validation in a large multicenter cohort is needed to fully understand the benefits of the system.

LIMITATIONS

The retrospective validation cohort might have introduced selection and observational biases. The study may have been underpowered because of the sample size of the developmental cohort. The delay between admission and the time of ERCP theoretically may have increased the number of negative ERCP results, but our false negative rate for ERCP was consistent with the previously reported rates.

Regression tree for choledocholithiasis prediction

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and compare the predictive accuracy of classification and regression tree (CART) analysis with logistic regression (LR) for predicting common bile duct stones (CBDS) in patients subjected to laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We prospectively collected preoperative (demographic, biochemical, ultrasonographic) and intraoperative (intraoperative cholangiography, cystic duct diameter) data for 154 patients considered for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy at the department of General Surgery at Gornji Milanovac from 2013 through 2014. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors of CBDS. The CART analysis was carried out using the predictors identified by LR analysis. Various measures for the assessment of risk prediction models were determined, such as predictive ability, accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and clinical utility using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The most decisive variable at the time of classification was the cystic duct diameter category, the alkaline phosphatase, and dangerous stones. The CART model was shown to have good discriminatory ability (93.9%). Accuracy was similar in both models, ranging from 92.9% in the CART model and 93.5% in the LR model. In decision curve analysis, the CART model outperformed the LR model.

CONCLUSION

We developed a user-friendly risk model that can successfully predict the presence of choledocholithiasis in patients planned for elective cholecystectomy. However, before recommending its use in clinical practice, a larger and more complete database should be used to further clarify the differences between models in terms of prediction of the CBDS.

Non-invasive assessment of choledocholithiasis in patients with gallstones and abnormal liver function

AIM: To find a non-invasive strategy for detecting choledocholithiasis before cholecystectomy, with an acceptable negative rate of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

METHODS: All patients with symptomatic gallstones were included in the study. Patients with abnormal liver functions and common bile duct abnormalities on ultrasound were referred for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. Patients with normal ultrasound were referred to magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. All those who had a negative magnetic resonance or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy with intraoperative cholangiography.

RESULTS: Seventy-eight point five percent of patients had laparoscopic cholecystectomy directly with no further investigations. Twenty-one point five percent had abnormal liver function tests, of which 52.8% had normal ultrasound results. This strategy avoided unnecessary magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography in 47.2% of patients with abnormal liver function tests with a negative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography rate of 10%. It also avoided un-necessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in 35.2% of patients with abnormal liver function.

CONCLUSION: This strategy reduces the cost of the routine use of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, in the diagnosis and treatment of common bile duct stones before laparoscopic cholecystectomy.