Decision analysis model of open repair versus endovascular treatment in patients with asymptomatic popliteal artery aneurysms

Long-term outcomes of elective endovascular vs open repair of popliteal artery aneurysms in the VISION database

BACKGROUND

The best modality for elective popliteal artery aneurysm repair (PAR) remains controversial. Most single-center studies suggest that open popliteal aneurysm repair (OPAR) is more durable than endovascular PAR (EPAR), but large, randomized, multicenter studies are lacking. This study compares long-term outcomes of EPAR and OPAR in the Vascular Quality Initiative-Vascular Implant Surveillance and Interventional Outcomes Network (VISION) database.

METHODS

VQI Medicare-linked VISION database (2010-2019) for peripheral vascular interventions and infrainguinal bypass were reviewed for elective PAR. Patients undergoing OPAR and EPAR were propensity matched to compare outcomes.

RESULTS

There were 1159 PARs (65.1% open). EPAR patients were older (77 years vs 73 years; P < .001) and more likely to be on P2Y12 inhibitors (26.5% vs 17.0%; P < .001). After matching, there were 396 patients in each group with similar baseline characteristics. EPAR patients were more likely to be discharged home (87.6% vs 48.5%; P < .001) and have a shorter hospital length of stay (1 day vs 3 days; P < .001). Kaplan-Meier curves showed no difference in mortality, reintervention, or major amputation at 1, 3, and 5 years. Cox proportional hazards regression showed no significant association between revascularization strategy and mortality, reintervention, or major amputation. Subgroup analysis of patients undergoing OPAR with great saphenous vein (GSV) bypass compared with EPAR showed that OPAR with GSV bypass was associated with lower mortality without difference in reintervention or major amputation.

CONCLUSIONS

Elective EPAR is durable and comparable with OPAR in terms of limb outcomes, even when GSV is used as conduit. However, bypass with GSV was associated with increased survival after open PAR compared with endovascular therapy.

A Hybrid Approach That May Facilitate the Repair of Traumatic Popliteal Artery Pseudoaneurysms

PURPOSE

Traumatic popliteal pseudoaneurysms may occur in accidents or as an iatrogenic complication of a total knee arthroplasty. Complications often arise in open repair because of distorted anatomy. Up to 22% of the patients may suffer above-knee amputation. Endovascular treatment has proven to be an effective solution. However, the long-term performance of stents at the hinge point of the popliteal artery is questionable. We present a hybrid technique that was used successfully in 2 cases.

TECHNIQUE

Our approach takes advantage of both open and endovascular techniques. At first, we apply a stent graft at the side of the injury to cover the arterial trauma and stop blood leakage to the aneurysm sac. This allows for a safer dissection and open repair. We clamp the artery proximally and distally, open the sac, extract the stent graft, and extend to a longitudinal arteriotomy. We then reconstruct the entire area with a standard in lay end-to-end anastomosis using a vein graft. This hybrid technique may reduce the risk of uncontrollable bleeding and allow for a safer nerve decompression.

CONCLUSIONS

Repair of such injuries is technically demanding. A hybrid approach may reduce the risk of complications and offer excellent long-term outcomes.

CLINICAL IMPACT

The hybrid approach to the treatment of traumatic popliteal pseudoaneurysms combines the advantages of both open and endovascular approaches. It may be possible to make an acute operation just as safe as an elective operation by implementing the proposed strategy. The procedure can be performed by surgeons of all levels, and patients may benefit from a safer surgical dissection with fewer complications and blood loss. This smart combination of standard techniques may prove invaluable in a hostile surgical environment where limb loss is likely.

The Impact of Underlying Conditions on Quality-of-Life Measurement Among Patients with Chronic Wounds, as Measured by Utility Values: A Review with an Additional Study

Significance: Quality of life (QoL) is important to patients with chronic wounds and is rarely formally evaluated. Understanding what comorbidities most affect the individual versus their wounds could be a key metric. Recent Advances: The last 20 years have seen substantial advances in QoL instruments and conversion of patient data to a single value known as the health utilities index (HUI). We review these advances, along with wound-related QoL, and analyze real-world comorbidities challenging wound care. Critical Issues: To understand the impact of underlying comorbidities in a real-world patient population, we examined a convenience sample of 382 patients seen at a hospital-based outpatient wound center. This quality reporting study falls outside the regulations that govern human subject research. Comorbid conditions were used to calculate HUIs using a variety of literature-reported approaches, while Wound-Quality-of-Life (W-QoL) questionnaire data were collected from patients during their first visit. The mean number of conditions per patient was 8; 229 patients (59.9%) had utility values for comorbidities/conditions, which were worse/lower than their wounds' values. Sixty-three (16.5%) patients had depression and/or anxiety, 64 (16.8%) had morbid obesity, and 204 (53.4%) had gait and mobility disorders, all of which could have affected W-QoL scoring. The mean minimum utility value (0.5) was within 0.05 units of an average of 13 studies reporting health utilities from wound care populations using the EuroQol 5 Dimension instrument. Future Directions: The comorbidity associated with the lowest utility value is what might most influence the QoL of patients with chronic wounds. This finding needs further investigation.

The Management of Patients with Popliteal Artery Aneurysms Presenting with Acute Limb Ischemia

INTRODUCTION

Endovascular popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) repair has acceptable outcomes compared to open repair for elective therapy. Endovascular repair for urgent PAA causing acute limb ischemia (ALI) has not been well studied. This project compares outcomes of urgent endovascular and open repair of PAA with ALI.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative database for peripheral vascular interventions and infrainguinal bypass were reviewed for PAA with ALI from 2010 to 2021. Only patients entered as having symptoms of ALI in the PVI module and ALI as indication in the infrainguinal bypass module were included. In addition, patients undergoing elective treatment were excluded and the sample analyzed was restricted to patients undergoing urgent and emergent open and endovascular repair. Patient demographics and comorbidities as well as procedural details were compared between the two groups. Perioperative complications up to 30 days were compared as well as long-term outcomes including major amputation and mortality at one year.

RESULTS

Urgent PAA repair for ALI constituted 10.5% (N=571) of all PAA. Most urgent repairs were open (80.6%, n=460) with 19.4% (n=111) endovascular. The proportion of endovascular repair significantly increased from 16.7% in 2010 to 85.7% in 2021. Patients undergoing endovascular repair were older (71.2 ± 12.5 vs 68.0 ± 11.8, p=0.011) than patients undergoing open repair. They were also more likely to have coronary artery disease (32.4% vs 21.7%, p=0.006). Open PAA repair was associated with more bleeding complications (20.8% vs 2.7%, p<0.001), longer post-op length of stay (8.1 ± 9.3 days vs 4.9 ± 5.6 days, p<0.001), and less likelihood of discharge to home (64.9% vs 70.3%, p=0.051). Perioperative major amputation rate was 7.5% with no difference between the two treatment strategies up to one year. However, patients receiving endovascular repair had higher inpatient (1.1% vs 0%, p<0.001), 30-day (6.3% vs 0.4%, p<0.001), and 1-year (16.5% vs 8.4%. P=0.02) mortality. Multivariable regression analysis suggested that endovascular repair was possibly associated with increased 30-day mortality, but not 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

Endovascular PAA has exponentially increased from 2010 to 2021. Endovascular repair is associated with decreased complications and hospital length of stay. The increased perioperative mortality seen in this group is likely due to selection bias.

Real-world data of popliteal artery aneurysm treatment. Analysis of the POPART registry

OBJECTIVE

Popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) is a rare disease with a prevalence of 0.1-1%. Within the last years, endovascular repair of PAA (ER) has been performed more frequently despite the lack of high-level evidence compared to open surgery (OR). In 2014, the POPART registry was initiated to validate current treatment options in PAA repair.
 METHOD: POPART is a multinational multicenter registry for peri- and postoperative outcome of endovascular and open PAA repair. Data sets are recorded by the online survey tool "SurveyMonkey®". Regular monitoring and plausibility checks of the data sets are performed to ensure reliability. The aim of this study is to present results of the POPART registry, with data of 41 centers.
 RESULTS: From June 2014 to August 2019, a total of 794 cases were recorded in the PAA registry. OR was performed in 662 patients and ER in 106 patients; 23 Patients were treated conservatively. Four of the 106 patients with primary ER underwent conversion to OR. ER patients were significantly older (ER x˜= 71 vs. OR x˜= 67 (p<0.05). There were no other significant differences in demographics or comorbidities and aneurysm morphology between the two groups. 50.3% patients in the OR group were symptomatic; in the ER group 29.2% (p<0.05). Emergency treatment for acute ischemia, critical ischemia or rupture was necessary in 149 patients (22.5%) in the OR group vs. 11 patients (10.3%) in the ER group.
Most frequent complications after surgery were impaired wound healing (OR n=47, 7.1%; ER n=3, 2.8%, p>0.05) and major bleeding (OR n=26, 3.9%; ER n=3, 2.8%, p>0.05). In-hospital length of stay (= 10d [3-65] OR vs. x˜=7d [1-73] ER) was significantly higher in the OR group. Overall patency was 83.2% vs. 44.7% (OR/ER, p<0.005) after 12 months and 74.2% vs. 29.1% (OR/ER, p<0.005) after 24 months. There was a significantly poorer outcome for prosthetic graft compared to autologous vein in the OR group (71.4% vs. 88.1% 12-month primary patency).
 CONCLUSION: 
 In order to evaluate new treatment techniques such as endovascular repair (ER) for PAA, real world data is of essential importance. This analysis of the first results for the POPART registry shows good perioperative results for endovascular treatment of PAA in asymptomatic patients with good outflow vessels. The perioperative complication rate is low and the postoperative hospital stay is shorter than after OR. However, the patency rates after 12 and 24 months are low in the ER group compared to patients treated with open repair. More follow-up data is required for further interpretation; the completion of the data sets in the registry is ongoing.

The Potential Benefits and Costs of an Intensified Approach to Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Lowering in People with Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were to assess the incidence of major vascular events (MVE) and peripheral vascular events (PVE) in people with a small asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and model the theoretical benefits and costs of an intensified low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering programme.

METHODS

A total of 583 participants with AAAs measuring 30 - 54 mm were included in this study. The control of LDL-C and prescription of lipid lowering drugs were assessed by dividing participants into approximately equal tertiles depending on their year of recruitment into the study. The occurrence of MVE (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death, and coronary or non-coronary revascularisation) and PVE (non-coronary revascularisation, AAA repair, and major amputation) were recorded prospectively, and the incidence of these events was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The relative risk reduction reported for these events in a previous randomised control trial (RCT) was then applied to these figures to model the absolute risk reduction and numbers needed to treat (NTT) that could theoretically be achieved with a mean LDL-C lowering of 1 mmol/L. The maximum allowable expense for a cost effective intensive LDL-C lowering programme was estimated using a cost utility analysis.

RESULTS

At entry, only 28.5% of participants had an LDL-C of < 1.8 mmol/L and only 18.5% were prescribed a high potency statin (atorvastatin 80 mg or rosuvastatin 40 mg). The five year incidences of MVE and PVE were 38.1% and 44.7%, respectively. It was estimated that if the mean LDL-C of the cohort had been reduced by 1 mmol/L, this could have reduced the absolute risk of MVE and PVE by 6.5% (95% CI 4.4 - 8.7; NNT 15) and 5.3% (95% CI 1.4 - 7.5; NNT 19), respectively. It was estimated that the maximum allowable expense for a cost effective LDL-C lowering programme would be between $1 239 AUD (€768) and $1 582 AUD (€981) per person per annum over a five year period.

CONCLUSION

People with a small asymptomatic AAA are at high risk of MVE and PVE. This study provides evidence of the possible benefits and allowable expense for a cost effective intensive LDL-C lowering programme in this population.

The Society for Vascular Surgery clinical practice guidelines on popliteal artery aneurysms

The Society for Vascular Surgery clinical practice guidelines on popliteal artery aneurysms (PAAs) leverage the work of a panel of experts chosen by the Society for Vascular Surgery to review the current world literature as it applies to PAAs to extract the most salient, evidence-based recommendations for the treatment of these patients. These guidelines focus on PAA screening, indications for intervention, choice of repair strategy, management of asymptomatic and symptomatic PAAs (including those presenting with acute limb ischemia), and follow-up of both untreated and treated PAAs. They offer long-awaited evidence-based recommendations for physicians taking care of these patients.

Management of Asymptomatic Popliteal Artery Aneurysms

Popliteal artery aneurysms (PAAs) are the most common peripheral artery aneurysms. They are frequently symptomatic and are associated with high rates of morbidity and limb loss. PAA can be treated by open or endovascular means, although there are no specified recommendations guiding treatment choice. This article delineates many of the differences between open and endovascular repair of asymptomatic PAA, and highlights several key articles comparing open and endovascular repair to guide decision making. Proper diagnosis and choice of repair can lead to good outcomes in the treatment of asymptomatic PAA.

Open and Endovascular Repair of Popliteal Artery Aneurysms

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to report midterm outcomes of open repair (OR) or endovascular repair (ER) of popliteal artery aneurysms (PAAs) and assess if outcomes of patients have changed in the endovascular era.

METHODS

This monocentric and retrospective study included all consecutive patients treated for PAA between January 2004 and December 2016. Before 2010, all patients underwent OR, but ER was available since 2010, and the choice between OR or ER was made on the basis of clinical presentation and preoperative morphological assessment. Survival, primary patency, primary-assisted patency, secondary patency, and limb salvage rates were assessed regarding the surgical way of treatment (OR or ER) or regarding the period of time (before 2010 or since 2010).

RESULTS

A total of 153 PAA were treated in 126 patients (103 limbs in OR and 50 limbs in ER). Mean follow-up was 3.8 years. Five-year survival was 97.7% for OR and 88.7% for ER. Five-year primary patency was 77.8% and 29.5% for OR and ER, respectively, primary-assisted patency 85.0% and 49.7%, respectively, and secondary patency 92.8% and 79.6%, respectively. Five-year limb salvage was 89.5% for OR and 87.9% for ER. No outcome difference was observed between patients who underwent surgery before or after ER was available.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of OR and ER in the setting of PAA are satisfactory. Outcomes of patients did not change in the endovascular era.

Cost-effectiveness of supervised exercise therapy compared with endovascular revascularization for intermittent claudication

Background

Current guidelines recommend supervised exercise therapy (SET) as the preferred initial treatment for patients with intermittent claudication. The availability of SET programmes is, however, limited and such programmes are often not reimbursed. Evidence for the long-term cost-effectiveness of SET compared with endovascular revascularization (ER) as primary treatment for intermittent claudication might aid widespread adoption in clinical practice.

Methods

A Markov model was constructed to determine the incremental costs, incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of SETversus ER for a hypothetical cohort of patients with newly diagnosed intermittent claudication, from the Dutch healthcare payer's perspective. In the event of primary treatment failure, possible secondary interventions were repeat ER, open revascularization or major amputation. Data sources for model parameters included original data from two RCTs, as well as evidence from the medical literature. The robustness of the results was tested with probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analysis.

Results

Considering a 5-year time horizon, probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that SET was associated with cost savings compared with ER (−€6412, 95 per cent credibility interval (CrI) –€11 874 to –€1939). The mean difference in effectiveness was −0·07 (95 per cent CrI −0·27 to 0·16) QALYs. ER was associated with an additional €91 600 per QALY gained compared with SET. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated more favourable cost-effectiveness for ER in subsets of patients with low quality-of-life scores at baseline.

Conclusion

SET is a more cost-effective primary treatment for intermittent claudication than ER. These results support implementation of supervised exercise programmes in clinical practice.

Cirurgia aberta e endovascular no tratamento de aneurisma de artéria poplítea: experiência de cinco anos do HCRP-FMRP-USP

Resumo Contexto Aneurismas de artéria poplítea (AAPs) correspondem a 70,00% dos aneurismas periféricos. A indicação cirúrgica é para aneurismas com diâmetros maiores que 2,0 cm ou sintomáticos. O tratamento é feito por técnicas cirúrgicas convencionais ou endovasculares. Esta última tem ganho muitos adeptos, mas ainda não há consenso estabelecido sobre sua indicação. Objetivo Apresentar a experiência da Divisão de Cirurgia Vascular e Endovascular do Hospital das Clínicas de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo no tratamento dos AAPs. Método Foram revisados casos de reparo convencional e endovascular de AAPs tratados nos últimos cinco anos, avaliando dados demográficos, comorbidades, indicação cirúrgica, complicações pré e pós-operatórias precoces e tardias, tempo de internação e de perviedade em até um ano. Resultados Foram realizadas no período dez cirurgias endovasculares (CE) e 21 cirurgias abertas (CA). O grupo CE teve maior frequência de comorbidades. Houve maior frequência de pacientes sintomáticos no grupo CA (85,00%) do que no grupo CE (40,00%). O Grupo CE apresentou menor número de complicações clínicas e cirúrgicas. A idade entre os grupos e o tempo de internação de cada grupo não apresentaram diferença estatística. A perviedade primária em um ano no Grupo CE foi de 80,00%, enquanto no Grupo CA foi de 75,00%. Conclusão O tratamento endovascular para AAPs apresenta bons resultados, em termos de perviedade com taxas de complicações aceitáveis, em pacientes com risco cirúrgico elevado e anatomia favorável, justificando, assim, a necessidade de mais estudos controlados para modificar a posição da técnica endovascular como uma terapia alternativa para casos selecionados.

Popliteal Artery Aneurysm Repair in the Endovascular Era: Fourteen-Years Single Center Experience

To compare outcomes of popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) repair by endovascular treatment, great saphenous vein (GSV) bypass, and prosthetic bypass.Single center retrospective analysis of patients presenting PAA from 2000 to 2013. Patients were divided into endovascular treatment (group A); GSV bypass (group B); and prosthetic graft bypass (group C). Outcomes were technical success, perioperative mortality, and morbidity. Survival, primary and secondary patency, and freedom from reintervention rate were estimated. Differences in ankle-brachial index (ABI), in-hospital length of stay (InH-Los), red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and limb loss were reported. Mean follow-up was 49 (median: 35; 1-145; SD 42) months.Sixty-seven patients were included; 25 in group A, 28 in group B, and 14 in group C. PAA was symptomatic in 23 (34%) cases. Technical success was 100%. No perioperative death occurred. Three (4.5%) perioperative complications were reported with no significant difference between groups (P = 0.866). Five-years estimated survival was 78%. Estimated 5-years primary patency for groups A, B, and C was 71%, 81%, and 69%, respectively (P = 0.19). Estimated 5-years secondary patency for groups A, B, and C was 88%, 85%, and 84% (P = 0.85). Estimated 5-years freedom from reintervention for groups A, B, and C was 62%, 84%, and 70%, respectively (P = 0.16). A significant difference between preoperative ABI versus postoperative ABI was observed (P = 0.001). InH-LoS was significantly shorter in group A (P < 0.001). RBC transfusions were required significantly less in group A when compared to group C (P = 0.045). Overall limb salvage was achieved in all but 1 patient.PAA repair has good early and long-term outcomes with different treatment options. Endovascular treatment was not inferior to surgical repair with a reduced InH-LoS and RBC transfusion. It can be successfully employed even in nonelective setting. A randomized controlled trial with long-term follow-up and appropriate patient inclusion criteria is necessary to compare these 3 treatment options.

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular repair, open repair, and conservative management of splenic artery aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

Open repair (OPEN) and conservative management (CONS) have been the treatments of choice for splenic artery aneurysms (SAAs) for many years. Endovascular repair (EV) has been increasingly used with good short-term results. In this study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of OPEN, EV, and CONS for the treatment of SAAs.

METHODS

A decision analysis model was developed using TreeAge Pro 2013 software (TreeAge Inc, Williamstown, Mass) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the different treatments for SAAs. A hypothetical cohort of 10,000 55-year-old female patients with SAAs was assessed in the reference-case analysis. Perioperative mortality, disease-specific mortality rates, complications, rupture risks, and reinterventions were retrieved from a recent and extensive meta-analysis. Costs were analyzed with the 2014 Medicare database. The willingness to pay was set to $60,000/quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Outcomes evaluated were QALYs, costs from the health care perspective, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed and different clinical scenarios evaluated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to include the uncertainty around the variables. A flowchart for clinical decision-making was developed.

RESULTS

For a 55-year-old female patient with a SAA, EV has the highest QALYs (11.32; 95% credibility interval [CI], 9.52-13.17), followed by OPEN (10.48; 95% CI, 8.75-12.25) and CONS (10.39; 95% CI, 8.96-11.87). The difference in effect for 55-year-old female patients between EV and OPEN is 0.84 QALY (95% CI, 0.42-1.34), comparable with 10 months in perfect health. EV is more effective and less costly than OPEN and more effective and more expensive compared with CONS, with an ICER of $17,154/QALY. Moreover, OPEN, with an ICER of $223,166/QALY, is not cost-effective compared with CONS. In elderly individuals (age >78 years), the ICER of EV vs CONS is $60,503/QALY and increases further with age, making EV no longer cost-effective. Very elderly patients (age >93 years) have higher QALYs and lower costs when treated with CONS. The EV group has the highest number of expected reinterventions, followed by CONS and OPEN, and the number of expected reinterventions decreases with age.

CONCLUSIONS

EV is the most cost-effective treatment for most patient groups with SAAs, independent of the sex and risk profile of the patient. EV is superior to OPEN, being both cost-saving and more effective in all age groups. Elderly patients should be considered for CONS, based on the high costs in relation to the very small gain in health when treated with EV. The very elderly should be treated with CONS.

Long-term results of open repair of popliteal artery aneurysm

INTRODUCTION

Popliteal artery aneurysms (PAA) are rare. Different surgical techniques for open surgical repair are possible. This study presents a single centre experience using open surgical repair with a medial approach (MA) and outlines differences between symptomatic (SLS) and asymptomatic (ALS) legs.

METHODS

Data collection was performed retrospectively. The investigation period was from 1 January 1996 to 1 January 2013. Patients presented in the Outpatient Department and received a questionnaire concerning their quality of life. Data are presented as mean ± standard deviation. Mann-Whitney test and Cochran-Armitage test for trend was used for data analysis. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate limb salvage rates. p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

We analyzed 16 ALS and 26 SLS with an average age of 63.5 ± 10 years. Preoperative ankle-brachial index (ABI) was 1.0 ± 0.2 for ALS (on control examination: 1.12 ± 0.24) and 0.08 ± 0.18 for SLS (on control examination 0.94 ± 0.14) (p < 0.05). Limb salvage rate was 100% for ALS and 86.7% for SLS (overall 93.3%). Primary patency rate for SLS was 85%, for ALS rate of 100%, respectively (overall 92.5%). ALS reached an average of 13.1 ± 2.7 points (SLS 11.4 ± 2.8) on a numeric point scale.

CONCLUSION

Open surgery is therapy and prevention of acute ischaemia all in one, especially for asymptomatic patients and delivers good long-term results. Endovascular therapies offer an alternative but long-term results are pending. Open surgery should still be considered as a gold standard therapy.

Clinical management and burden of prostate cancer: a Markov Monte Carlo model

Background

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common non-skin cancer among men in developed countries. Several novel treatments have been adopted by healthcare systems to manage PCa. Most of the observational studies and randomized trials on PCa have concurrently evaluated fewer treatments over short follow-up. Further, preceding decision analytic models on PCa management have not evaluated various contemporary management options. Therefore, a contemporary decision analytic model was necessary to address limitations to the literature by synthesizing the evidence on novel treatments thereby forecasting short and long-term clinical outcomes.

Objectives

To develop and validate a Markov Monte Carlo model for the contemporary clinical management of PCa, and to assess the clinical burden of the disease from diagnosis to end-of-life.

Methods

A Markov Monte Carlo model was developed to simulate the management of PCa in men 65 years and older from diagnosis to end-of-life. Health states modeled were: risk at diagnosis, active surveillance, active treatment, PCa recurrence, PCa recurrence free, metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer, overall and PCa death. Treatment trajectories were based on state transition probabilities derived from the literature. Validation and sensitivity analyses assessed the accuracy and robustness of model predicted outcomes.

Results

Validation indicated model predicted rates were comparable to observed rates in the published literature. The simulated distribution of clinical outcomes for the base case was consistent with sensitivity analyses. Predicted rate of clinical outcomes and mortality varied across risk groups. Life expectancy and health adjusted life expectancy predicted for the simulated cohort was 20.9 years (95%CI 20.5–21.3) and 18.2 years (95% CI 17.9–18.5), respectively.

Conclusion

Study findings indicated contemporary management strategies improved survival and quality of life in patients with PCa. This model could be used to compare long-term outcomes and life expectancy conferred of PCa management paradigms.