External validation of a 5-year survival prediction model after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Association of polypharmacy scores with the long-term survival of patients with intact aortoiliac aneurysms and indication for repair

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND

Our study analyzed the relationship between two polypharmacy scores (addition of chronic prescribed drugs [ACPDs] and Rx-Risk Comorbidity Index) and survival in patients with an intact abdominal aortic and/or common iliac aneurysm (AAA).

METHODS

Consecutive retrospective, single-center cohort of patients attended for an intact AAA with indication for repair from 2008 to 2021. Demographic data, Charlson Comorbidity Index, AAA treatment, ACPD, and Rx-Risk polypharmacy scores were recorded at baseline. Main outcomes were the 5-year and long-term survival rates. The statistical analysis included Cox regression, area under the curve, and continuous net reclassification index.

RESULTS

A total of 424 patients with AAA were evaluated (median age: 76 years; 92.2% male, median Charlson index 2), of whom 314 (74.1%) underwent intervention (80% endovascular and 20% open) and 110 (25.9%) did not. During follow-up (mean 4.6 years), 245 patients (57.8%) died, with 1-month, 1-year, and 5-year survival rates of 98.1%, 86.3%, and 52.7%, respectively. ACPD and Rx-Risk indices (median [interquartile range]: 6 [4-9] and 3 [0-5], respectively) were significantly and linearly associated (P < .001) with survival, with the best cutoff points at 5 and 0, respectively. An ACPD >5 (patients with >5 chronically prescribed drugs at baseline) and an Rx-Risk >0 were associated with a 45.2% (P = .038) and 102% (P = .002) increase in 5-year mortality, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex, Charlson index, and type of AAA treatment. Both polypharmacy indices improved significantly the discriminative power of the Charlson Comorbidity Index in predicting survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ACPD and Rx-Risk polypharmacy scores are independently related to survival among patients with an intact AAA and indication for repair. Their behavior is similar, so the simple ACPD >5 appears to be sufficient to identify patients with lower survival rates.

Comparative performance of three comorbidity scores in predicting survival after the elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

We aimed to study the discriminative power of 3 comorbidity scores for predicting 5-year survival after the elective repair of aorto-iliac aneurysms (AAA).

METHODS

444 patients with AAA undergoing elective repair (33% open and 67% endovascular) between 2000 and 2020 were reviewed. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and subsequent adjustments by Schneeweiss, Quan and Armitage, the Modified Frailty Index (MFI) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Score (ASA) were calculated from preoperative data. Their association with 5-year survival was analyzed using Cox regression models and their discriminative power and its changes with C statistics and Net Reclassification Index (NRI).

RESULTS

All comorbidity scores were associated with survival after adjusting by age, sex and type of surgical repair: original CCI HR=1.24, P<0.001; Schneeweiss CCI HR=1.23, P<0.001; Quan CCI HR=1.27, P<0.001, Armitage CCI HR=1.46, P<0.001, MFI HR=1.39, P<0.001 and ASA HR=1.68 (P=0.04) and 2.86 (P=0.01) for classes III and IV, respectively. Associated C statistics were of 0.64, 0.65, 0.65, 0.64, 0.61 and 0.59, respectively. Compared with the original CCI, models based on Schneeweiss CCI and Armitage CCI provided minor improvements in NRI (0.32 and 0.23), and the model based on ASA showed lower C statistics (P=0.014) and NRI (-0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Established comorbidity scores, such as CCI, MFI or ASA, are all associated with 5-year survival after the elective repair of AAAs, being ASA the worst of them. However, their predictive power is in no case sufficient to identify, by themselves, those patients who may not be eligible for intervention on the basis of life expectancy.

Prognostic model for survival of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms treated with endovascular aneurysm repair

The role of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in patients with asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) who are unfit for open surgical repair has been questioned. The impending risk of aneurysm rupture, the risk of elective repair, and the life expectancy must be balanced when considering elective AAA repair. This retrospective observational cohort study included all consecutive patients treated with standard EVAR for AAA at a referral centre between 2001 and 2020. A previously published predictive model for survival after EVAR in patients treated between 2001 and 2012 was temporally validated using patients treated at the same institution between 2013 and 2020 and updated using the overall cohort. 558 patients (91.2% males, mean age 74.9 years) were included. Older age, lower eGFR, and COPD were independent predictors for impaired survival. A risk score showed good discrimination between four risk groups (Harrel's C = 0.70). The 5-years survival probabilities were only 40% in "high-risk" patients, 68% in "moderate-to-high-risk" patients, 83% in "low-to-moderate-risk", and 89% in "low-risk" patients. Low-risk patients with a favourable life expectancy are likely to benefit from EVAR, while high-risk patients with a short life expectancy may not benefit from EVAR at the current diameter threshold.

Peri-Operative Management of Patients Undergoing Fenestrated-Branched Endovascular Repair for Juxtarenal, Pararenal and Thoracoabdominal Aortic Aneurysms: Preventing, Recognizing and Treating Complications to Improve Clinical Outcomes

The advent and refinement of complex endovascular techniques in the last two decades has revolutionized the field of vascular surgery. This has allowed an effective minimally invasive treatment of extensive disease involving the pararenal and the thoracoabdominal aorta. Fenestrated-branched EVAR (F/BEVAR) now represents a feasible technical solution to address these complex diseases, moving the proximal sealing zone above the renal-visceral vessels take-off and preserving their patency. The aim of this paper was to provide a narrative review on the peri-operative management of patients undergoing F/BEVAR procedures for juxtarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (JAAA), pararenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (PRAA) or thoracoabdominal aortic aneurism (TAAA). It will focus on how to prevent, diagnose, and manage the complications ensuing from these complex interventions, in order to improve clinical outcomes. Indeed, F/BEVAR remains a technically, physiologically, and mentally demanding procedure. Intraoperative adverse events often require prolonged or additional procedures and complications may significantly impact a patient's quality of life, health status, and overall cost of care. The presence of standardized preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative pathways of care, together with surgeons and teams with significant experience in aortic surgery, should be considered as crucial points to improve clinical outcomes. Aggressive prevention, prompt diagnosis and timely rescue of any major adverse events following the procedure remain paramount clinical needs.

Prognostic Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers in 5-Year Survival After Endovascular Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in a Predominantly Male Cohort: Implications for Practice

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors of long-term survival can guide selection of patients for endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (EVAR). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and the systemic immune-inflammation index (SIII) with survival after EVAR and to assess whether the addition of these biomarkers improved the prediction of survival after surgery.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 284 consecutive patients who underwent an EVAR at a single institution. The association between biomarkers and survival was explored using generalized additive models with penalized smoothing splines and multivariate Cox models. C-statistics and continuous net reclassification indexes (c-NRI) were used to assess the improvement in prediction.

RESULTS

Survival rates at 2 and 5 years were 83.9% and 66.2%, respectively. The predictive score of survival included hemoglobin (HR = 0.849, p = 0.004), statin intake (HR = 0.538, p = 0.004), atrial fibrillation (HR = 2.515, p < 0.001), heart failure (HR = 2.542, p = 0.017) and the non-revascularized coronary artery disease (HR = 2.163, p = 0.004). Spline analyses showed a linear relationship between survival and NLR, PLR, LMR and SII. After adjusting for the predictive score, there was an independent relationship between survival and NLR (HR = 1.072, p = 0.006), PLR (HR = 1.002, p = 0.014) and SII (HR = 1.000, p = 0.043). However, only the addition of NLR improved moderately the c-NRI. A NLR ≥ 3 was independently associated with lower survival rates at 2-years (HR 1.98; 95% CI 1.07-3.66) and 5-years (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.22-2.78) of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Most inflammatory biomarkers are linear and independently associated with survival after EVAR, but only the NLR improved moderately the prediction of a survival score. Therefore, a NLR ≥ 3 may be used to identify patients with a low survival rate and help in decision-making.

Reporting standards for endovascular aortic repair of aneurysms involving the renal-mesenteric arteries

Endovascular aortic aneurysm repair of complex aortic aneurysms requires incorporation of side branches using specially designed aortic stent grafts with fenestrations, directional branches, or parallel stent grafts. These techniques have been increasingly used and reported in the literature. The purpose of this document is to clarify and to update terminology, classification systems, measurement techniques, and end point definitions that are recommended for reports dealing with endovascular repair of complex abdominal and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms involving the renal and mesenteric arteries.

Sarcopenia predicts mortality and adverse outcomes after endovascular aneurysm repair and can be used to risk stratify patients

BACKGROUND

Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is currently the most common treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysms. Potential predictors of long-term survival after EVAR include physiologic, functional, and cognitive status, but assessments of these conditions have been difficult to standardize. Objective radiographic findings, such as skeletal muscle atrophy, or sarcopenia, may provide an additional means for selection of patients. This study investigates sarcopenia as a method to predict 1-year survival in patients undergoing EVAR.

METHODS

A single-institution retrospective review was conducted of all patients who underwent elective EVAR from September 2002 to June 2014. Patients with an available periprocedural computed tomography (CT) scan and clinical data were included in the analysis. Normalized total psoas cross-sectional area (nTPA) was measured on axial CT images using the area of the bilateral psoas muscle at the third lumbar vertebral level normalized to the square of patient height. A threshold for optimal estimate of sarcopenia based on nTPA was determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Sarcopenia was evaluated as an independent risk predictor using univariate, multivariate, and survival analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 272 EVAR-treated patients were evaluated, including 237 men and 35 women with a median age of 72 years and mean body mass index of 28.6 kg/m². There was a significant increase in overall mortality in patients in the lowest quartile of nTPA (Q1, 23.53%; Q2, 13.24%; Q3, 7.35%; Q4, 5.88%; P = .01). The estimated nTPA threshold for increased mortality after EVAR was 500 mm²/m². Using this threshold, sarcopenia accounted for 57% of the risk effect in our 1-year survival model.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia can assist in identifying EVAR candidates who are less likely to benefit from surgery. It can be readily evaluated from preoperative CT scans and may be a useful tool in evaluation of abdominal aortic aneurysm patients with applications in risk evaluation and telemedicine.

Correlation between Sex and Prognosis of Acute Aortic Dissection in the Chinese Population

BACKGROUND

The prevalence, presentation, management, and prognosis of coronary heart disease differ according to sex. Greater understanding on the differences between men and women with acute aortic dissection (AAD) is needed. We aimed to investigate whether sex disparities are found in patients with AAD, and to study sex differences in complications, mortality in-hospital, and long-term.

METHODS

We included 884 patients enrolled in our institute between June 2002 and May 2016. Considering psychosocial factors, treatments, and the outcomes in men versus those in women with AAD, we explored the association of sex with psychosocial characteristics and mortality risk. For categorical variables, significant differences between groups were assessed with the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, and continuous parameters were assessed with Student's t-test. Univariate and stratified survival statistics were computed using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 884 patients (76.1% male, mean age 51.4 ± 11.8 years) were included in this study. There were fewer current smokers in female compared with male (17.5% vs. 67.2%, χ2 = 160.06, P < 0.05). The percentage of men who reported regular alcohol consumption was significantly higher than that in women (40.6% vs. 3.8%, χ2 = 100.18, P < 0.05). About 6.2% (55 of 884) of patients with AAD died before vascular or endovascular surgery was performed, 34.4% (304 of 884) of patients underwent surgical procedures, and 52.7% (466 of 884) and 12.8% (113 of 884) of patients received endovascular treatment and medication. Postoperative mortality similar (6.0% vs. 5.6%, respectively, χ2 = 0.03, P = 0.91) between men and women. Follow-up was completed in 653 of 829 patients (78.8%). Adjustment for age, history of coronary disease, hypertension, smoking and drinking, Type A and use of beta-blocker, angiotensin II receptor blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, calcium-channel blockers and statins by multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that age (odds ratios [OR s], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.07; P < 0.05), using of calcium-channel blockers (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.18-0.74; P < 0.05), at discharge were independent predictors of late mortality, ACE inhibitors (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.03-3.54; P = 0.04) was independent risk factor of late mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In Chinese with AAD, sex is not independently associated with long-term clinical outcomes. Age, the intake of calcium-channel blockers at discharge might help to improve long-term outcomes.