Population stress: A spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001-2011

The nexus between urbanization and ecosystem services balance in China: A coupling perspective

Urbanization inevitably interfered with the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs), which has a crucial impact on the ESs balance. Scientific exploration and clarification of the coupling and decoupling relationship between them can effectively reveal the disturbance of urbanization to the ecosystem, which can help to reasonably manage and protect the ecosystem. Previous studies have paid more attention to the coupling relationship but less attention to the decoupling relationship. This study comprehensively reflected urbanization from the three aspects of construction land, population, and economy and used the evaluation matrix to measure ESs. On this basis, coupling and decoupling analyses were taken to fully clarify the complex relationship between urbanization and ESs balance in China, so as to provide a reference for the formulation of relevant policies. Coupling aspect, the coupling degrees between the proportion of construction land (CLP) and ESs balance index (ESBI) were higher only in the central and eastern plains. The coupling degrees between population density (PD) and ESBI, economic density (ED) and ESBI, and land development index (LDI) and ESBI were only lower in the central and eastern plains than in other regions. Decoupling aspect, strong, weak negative, weak, and strong negative decoupling were the main decoupling types between urbanization and ESs balance in China. Among them, the proportion of the strong decoupling type is much higher than other types, which proves the opposite relationship between the two. Weak decoupling can not only promote economic growth and social development but also protect the ecological environment and biodiversity, which is a type of sustainable development and an ideal state that urbanization should pursue. The results can provide scientific guidance for the formulation of differentiated ecosystem management policies.

Does interstate trade of agricultural products in the U.S. alleviate land and water stress?

Interregional free-trade of agricultural products is expected to transfer embodied (virtual) water from more to less water-productive regions. However, irrigation in semi-arid to arid regions may significantly push up agricultural productivity but cause local water scarcity. This may result in a puzzle: inter-regional trade may save overall water consumption but lead to more severe local water scarcity. An analogous puzzle may exist for farmland, for instance, trade may save farmland but not address farmland scarcity. To test the existence of these two important puzzles, we applied environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models to obtain the inter-regional virtual agricultural water and land transfer across 48 states of the conterminous U.S. and estimated their agricultural land and water footprints in 2017. Such a detailed analysis showed that while the land-abundant Midwestern states exported a sizable amount of virtual farmland to other densely populated areas and foreign nations, the water-stressed Western U.S. and Southwestern U.S. states, like California, Arizona, and New Mexico, exported considerable amounts of water-intensive crops such as fruits, vegetables and tree nuts to the Eastern U.S. and overseas, thus worsen the local water scarcity of those water scarce states. Our analysis highlights a critical dilemma inherent in an economic productivity-focused incentive regime: It frequently leads to increased withdrawal of scarce water. Therefore, resource scarcity rents need to be reflected in inter-regional trade with the support of local environmental policies.

Ecosystem degradation or restoration? The evolving role of land use in China, 2000-2020

Dramatic land use change in China affects ecosystem degradation and restoration. Identifying the evolving role of land use in ecosystem degradation and restoration in China is essential for sustainable land policy making. However, it is not clear how land use affects ecosystem degradation and restoration over time. Here, we used the revised benefit transfer approach and spatial statistics based on land use data to determine the evolving role that land use plays in ecosystem degradation and restoration in China during 2000-2020. The study results pointed out that the deterioration of the forestland ecosystem during the study period was the main reason for ecosystem degradation, while the conversion of arable land to forestland was the main cause for ecosystem restoration. Every 1% increase of land use intensity in the periods 2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2020 resulted in -1.754%, 0.697%, 1.098%, and -0.058% of the changes in ecosystem services, respectively. This study provided important policy implications for future sustainable land use management in China.

Land cover change in global drylands: A review

As a sensitive region, identifying land cover change in drylands is critical to understanding global environmental change. However, the current findings related to land cover change in drylands are not uniform due to differences in data and methods among studies. We compared and judged the spatial and temporal characteristics, driving forces, and ecological effects by identifying the main findings of land cover change in drylands at global and regional scales (especially in China) to strengthen the overall understanding of land cover change in drylands. Four main points were obtained. First, while most studies found that drylands were experiencing vegetation greening, some evidence showed decreases in vegetation and large increases in bare land due to inconsistencies in the datasets and the study phases. Second, the dominant factors affecting land cover change in drylands are precipitation, agricultural activities, and urban expansion. Third, the impact of land cover change on the water cycle, especially the impact of afforestation on water resources in drylands, is of great concern. Finally, drylands experience severe land degradation and require dataset matching (classification standards, resolution, etc.) to quantify the impact of human activities on land cover.

Linking land degradation and restoration to ecosystem services balance by identifying landscape drivers: insights from the globally largest loess deposit area

Land degradation is one of the most serious environmental challenges that profoundly affects ecosystem services (ESs), which further threaten ecosystem sustainability. However, few studies have been committed to sufficiently explore the relationship between land degradation neutrality (LDN) and the ES balance of supply and demand sides, as well as their spatial disparities and determinants. To fill the knowledge gaps, this study quantifies land dynamics and ES balance through biophysical models and an expert knowledge matrix, respectively, and explores the spatial determinants through an integrated regression method. From 1990 to 2018, the ecosystem restoration projects in the Loess Plateau substantially reduced soil loss and maintained ES surplus patterns for the entire regional scale, except for individual urban agglomerations, which suffered from ES deficits. Spatial panel models and geographically and temporally weighted regression revealed that the ES balance and soil loss were concurrently determined by socioeconomic indicators, landscape composition, and structure. In addition, the spatial determinants presented remarkable regional heterogeneities and spillover effects depending on individual environmental and socioeconomic conditions, which should be taken into account in landscape monitoring, simulation, forecasting, and planning. Therefore, ecosystem restoration and landscape management should not solely depend on individual indicators in local units, but also rely on integrated frameworks and coordinated collaborations from cross-border areas that appropriately link LDN and ES balance maintenance targets by considering common critical determinants and their external effects. This study enriches the understanding of ecosystem evolution and sustaining ES balance. The findings are expected to further support policy formulations and implementations to address land degradation challenges and enhance ecosystem sustainability.

Evolution Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Production-Living-Ecological Space in China: Perspective of Main Function Zones

The main function zone (MFZ) is the major strategy of China's economic development and ecological environment protection. Clarifying the logical relationship between "MFZ strategy" and "territorial spatial layout" is vital to construct regional economic layout and territorial spatial supporting system of high-quality development. However, few studies have revealed the evolution process and formation mechanism of the production-living-ecological space (PLES) structure of China's MFZ over a long period of time. To bridge the gap, based on the land use dataset in China from 1980 to 2020, this study analyzed the evolution patterns of PLES in China's MFZs using multiple methods and measured the formation mechanism of PLES in different types of MFZs with the GeoDetector model. Results showed that the spatial structure of China's national territory has evolved drastically in the past 40 years, showing significant horizontal regional differentiation and vertical gradient differentiation. Ecological space has been continuously decreasing, while production space and living space have been continuously increasing, and the evolution of PLES varied significantly in different MFZs. During the study period, the gravity center of PLES in China all moved westward. The spatial distribution pattern of production space and living space was from northeast to southwest, and the ecological space was from east to west. The evolution of China's territorial spatial structure was subject to the combined effects of natural and socio-economic factors, exhibiting significant differences in different MFZs. Land use intensity had the most prominent influence on the formation of PLES, followed by elevation. The influences of different factors on PLES structure were strengthened mainly through two types of nonlinear enhancement and dual-factor enhancement. This study can provide scientific support for the optimal management and high-quality development of territorial space in China.

Rural Effectiveness Evaluation: A New Way of Assessing Village Development Status

China is currently at a crucial stage of rural revival and transformation growth. Accurate measurement of rural development status is able to provide decision-making services for rural revitalization plan implementation. To address this issue, combining with effectiveness concepts and on the basis of the widely recognized “production–living–ecology” perspective of rural development in the world, this study proposes an innovative technical evaluating system for rural effectiveness. We constructed a rural effectiveness evaluation index system and measurement model, as well as a four-quadrant approach to identify the effectiveness of villages, selecting Xintai county, a typical resource-depleted city, for empirical analysis to verify the evaluation technical system. The results show that (1) 220 villages had comprehensive effectiveness, accounting for 27.8% of the total; the amount of effectiveness for villages in terms of the production, living, and ecological dimensions were 204, 229 and 195, respectively, and they clearly displayed heterogeneity in terms of spatial distribution. (2) The following are village effectiveness dominant types: the function dominates the comprehensive effectiveness. For each dimension, there is a functionally dominant type. (3) Bivariate Moran’s I analysis revealed the relationships’ internal effectiveness. In the same dimension, there was a conflict between efficiency and function. In each dimension, trade-offs were found between the production function, ecological function, living efficiency, as well as production efficiency, ecological function, and efficiency. Synergies were found among the production function and ecological efficiency. Living efficiency had synergies with production efficiency and ecological efficiency. This research enriched the theoretical approach of assessing rural development status and can help guide the rational conversion of village elements to achieve village transformation and sustainability development, as well as providing technical assistance for the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

A multi-scale assessment of ecosystem health based on the Pressure-State-Response framework: a case in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China

Anthropogenic activities have reshaped the structure and function of ecosystems in global urban agglomerations. Evaluating the spatiotemporal features of ecosystem health for sustainable and high-quality development and the strategic deployment of ecological civilisation in urban agglomerations is essential. However, existing research lacks a multi-scale assessment of ecosystem health in urban agglomerations, limiting governments in formulating effective ecosystem management policies. To bridge this gap, a multi-scale assessment of ecosystem health at the county and township levels in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations (MRYRUA) in China was conducted using the 'Pressure-State-Response' framework. The results showed that most units (> 70%) were at a moderately healthy level, while only a small proportion (< 10%) was at a healthy level from 2000 to 2015 at both scales. The ecosystem health level in the surrounding and central mountainous areas was significantly higher than that in the plain areas. Our results demonstrated that the overall ecosystem health index in the MRYRUA continued to decrease during the study period at both scales. The ecosystem health in the key cities, the surrounding units of the key cities, and the units along the main traffic routes were low. This study provides an overview of ecosystem health and a scientific basis for landscape planning and ecosystem restoration in the MRYRUA.

Spatial mismatch of ecosystem service demands and supplies in China, 2000-2020

The supply capacity of ecosystem services (ES) in the past decades has shown a significant decrease globally, while ES demand capacity has increased. Identifying the spatial mismatch of ES supply and demand (ES S&D) can provide valuable knowledge about where the gaps are. Existing studies, however, lack specifics about the spatial mismatch of ES S&D-that is, few studies consider the coupling and decoupling relationship of ES S&D at the national scale. This study tries to fill the gap by examining the spatiotemporal distribution of ES S&D capacity in China from 2000 through 2020 using the land use/land cover matrix method. The spatial mismatch between ES S&D was ultimately identified by using coupling and decoupling analysis models. A continuous increase was found in the ES demand capacity in China during the period studied, while a continuous decline was found in the ES supply capacity. The coupling degree of the ES S&D was relatively higher in the plains areas. The strong negative decoupling was the dominant relationship between ES S&D, which was widely distributed in eastern and southeastern China. The spatial mismatch of ES S&D in China has increased substantially from 2000 through 2020. The findings in this study provide important implications for ES management and effective allocation of resources.

Identifying the spatial disparities and determinants of ecosystem service balance and their implications on land use optimization

Ecosystem services (ESs) are increasingly affected by human interventions, and the ES balance between supply and demand plays a vital role in guaranteeing the expected efficacy of ecosystem restoration projects. However, the spatial disparities of ES balance, along with its determinants and spillover effects, remain unclear, constraining effective ES management and landscape planning. The aim of this study was to fill these gaps by quantifying the ES balance in the restoring Loess Plateau using an expert-based ES matrix approach and by examining the spatial associations between ES balance and driving factors via an integrated regression approach. The results showed that the county-scale ES balance was closely related to the land-use composition and population density. Geographic locations of counties with ES surplus were mainly concentrated in mountainous areas with high proportions of woodland and grassland, while urbanized land and a high population density resulted in an ES deficit. Forest and grass regeneration, due to revegetation practices, alleviated ES deficits, while rapid urbanization and population growth aggravated ES imbalance. The integrated regression approach demonstrated that the ES balance and its dependencies (i.e., landscape metrics and population density) had remarkable spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects, which should be practically considered in localized ES management and landscape optimization. Excessive agricultural reclamation and urban expansion improved grain productivity and economic profits but deteriorated landscape fragmentation, further aggravating the ES deficit. In contrast, excessive revegetation practices promoted ecosystem restoration and improved ES surplus but threatened food security. Therefore, an appropriate balanced state should be maintained for sustainable ecosystem restoration through timely and efficient policy interventions and landscape optimization.

Multi-Dimensional Feature Recognition and Policy Implications of Rural Human–Land Relationships in China

Rural decline has become an indisputable fact and a global issue. As a developing country, China is simultaneously facing unprecedented rapid urbanization and severe rural decline. The coordinated development of its rural human–land relationship is therefore of great significance for ensuring the country’s food security and achieving both rural revitalization and sustainable development. Yet, the related research on this complex subject has mostly focused on a single element: rural settlements. Since studies of the rural human–land relationship tend to only discuss the coordinated change in rural populations vis-à-vis rural settlement area, their degree of spatial matching and intensive utilization level of rural settlements has been largely overlooked. To rectify this imbalance, using data on rural populations and rural settlement area in counties of Shandong Province in 2009 and 2018, this paper applied the methods of per capita rural settlement area, the Theil index, and Tapio’s decoupling model to quantitatively identify the rural human–land relationship along three dimensions: intensive utilization level, spatial matching degree, and change coordination degree. The results revealed that the per capita rural settlement area in Shandong Province was as high as 212.18 m2/person in 2018, which exceeded the standard to varying degrees in all cities, having an overall geographical pattern of being high in the north and low in the south. The Theil index for all cities was small, which indicates that the spatial matching between rural population and rural settlements is high. To sum up, there are small differences in the utilization of rural settlements among cities, and their extensive utilization of rural settlements is a common phenomenon. In addition, the relationship between the changes in the rural population size and rural settlement area corresponded to a discordant state, in the form of strong negative decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and expansive coupling; however, among them, the strong negative decoupling type was the dominant type. It is worth noting that all of these three types will exacerbate the extensive utilization of rural settlements. Accordingly, this paper proposes policies and measures, such as the paid withdrawal of rural homesteads, an expanded scope of homestead transfer, cross-regional “increasing versus decreasing balance”, classified promotion of rural revitalization, and improved village planning.

Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the School-Age Migrant Population in Liaoning Province, China, and Its Driving Factors

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and driving factors of the floating school-age population in Liaoning Province, China from 2008 to 2020 using county-level statistical education data combined with spatial autocorrelation and the multiscale geographically weighted regression model. The major findings are as follows. From 2008 to 2020, the distribution of the school-age migrant population exhibited obvious spatial imbalance characteristics both in terms of the number and proportion of school-age migrants. Specifically, the school-age migrant population was concentrated in the municipal districts of large and medium-sized cities and continued to increase over time in the suburbs of large and medium-sized cities. Over the past 12 years, the distribution of the school-age migrant population in Liaoning Province exhibited significant spatial autocorrelation. From the number of school-age migrants, the cold and hot spot area expanded. Conversely, from the proportion of school-age migrants, the cold and hot spot area decreased gradually, whereas the cold spot area became more diffuse. Regarding the driving factors, the quantity and quality of teaching staff, the quality of teaching equipment and conditions, and the quality of the education environment played a role in promoting or restraining the differentiation of the school-age migrant population in Liaoning Province. Moreover, the degree of influence of the driving factors exhibited substantial spatial differences.

The Nexus between Urbanization and Traffic Accessibility in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China

China has entered the stage where urban agglomerations underpin and spearhead the county’s urbanization. Urban agglomerations in China have become economic growth poles, and the constantly improving transport networks in these agglomerations bring about opportunities for redistributing labor forces and promoting regional economic development, trade, and social progress for all. This is the foundation and fuel for urban development. However, lack of knowledge of the spatial features of, and the interrelationship between, regional urbanization and traffic accessibility constrains effective urban planning and decision-making. To fill this gap, this study attempted to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of urbanization levels and traffic accessibility in 1995, 2005, and 2015 in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations (MRYRUA), China. The spatial interaction, spatial dependence effect, and spatial spillover effect between urbanization and traffic accessibility were tested by employing the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and spatial regression models. The results showed that the urbanization level and traffic accessibility in the MRYRUA shot up over time and manifested similar spatial distribution characteristics. The global bivariate spatial autocorrelation coefficients were positive and significant during the period studied, and the main relationship types were the high urbanization and high traffic accessibility types and low urbanization and low traffic accessibility types. The spatial regression results showed that there was a significant positive association between urbanization and traffic accessibility, but with a significant scale effect. Urbanization is not only affected by the traffic accessibility of the individual grid unit but also by those in the adjacent or further grid units. The findings in this study provide important implications for urbanization development and transportation planning. The spatial dependence effect and spatial spillover effect between urbanization and traffic accessibility should be considered in future urban planning and transportation planning. The rational allocation of resources and inter-regional joint management can be an effective path toward regional sustainability.

The associations between social, built and geophysical environment and age-specific dementia mortality among older adults in a high-density Asian city

Background

Although socio-environmental factors which may affect dementia have widely been studied, the mortality of dementia and socio-environmental relationships among older adults have seldom been discussed.

Method

A retrospective, observational study based on territory-wide register-based data was conducted to evaluate the relationships of four individual-level social measures, two community-level social measures, six short-term (temporally varying) environmental measures, and four long-term (spatially varying) environmental measures with dementia mortality among older adults in a high-density Asian city (Hong Kong), for the following decedents: (1) all deaths: age >= 65, (2) “old-old”: age > = 85, (3) “mid-old”: aged 75–84, and (4) “young-old”: aged 65–74.

Results

This study identified 5438 deaths (3771 old-old; 1439 mid-old; 228 young-old) from dementia out of 228,600 all-cause deaths among older adults in Hong Kong between 2007 and 2014. Generally, regional air pollution, being unmarried or female, older age, and daily O₃ were associated with higher dementia mortality, while more urban compactness and greenness were linked to lower dementia mortality among older adults. Specifically, being unmarried and the age effect were associated with higher dementia mortality among the “old-old”, “mid-old” and “young-old”. Regional air pollution was linked to increased dementia mortality, while urban compactness and greenness were associated with lower dementia mortality among the “old-old” and “mid-old”. Higher daily O₃ had higher dementia mortality, while districts with a greater percentage of residents whose native language is not Cantonese were linked to lower dementia mortality among the “old-old”. Economic inactivity was associated with increased dementia mortality among the “young-old”. Gender effect varied by age.

Conclusion

The difference in strengths of association of various factors with dementia mortality among different age groups implies the need for a comprehensive framework for community health planning. In particular, strategies for air quality control, usage of greenspace and social space, and activity engagement to reduce vulnerability at all ages are warranted.

Spatiotemporal variability in long-term population exposure to PM2.5 and lung cancer mortality attributable to PM2.5 across the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region over 2010-2016: A multistage approach

The Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) is one of the most densely populated regions in the world, and is frequently influenced by fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Specifically, lung cancer mortality has been recognized as a major health burden associated with PM_2.5. Therefore, this study developed a multistage approach 1) to first create dasymetric population data with moderate resolution (1 km) by using a random forest algorithm, brightness reflectance of nighttime light (NTL) images, a digital elevation model (DEM), and a MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and 2) to apply the improved population dataset with a MODIS-derived PM_2.5 dataset to estimate the association between spatiotemporal variability of long-term population exposure to PM_2.5 and lung cancer mortality attributable to PM_2.5 across YRD during 2010-2016 for microscale planning. The created dasymetric population data derived from a coarse census unit (administrative unit) were fairly matched with census data at a fine spatial scale (street block), with R² and RMSE of 0.64 and 27,874.5 persons, respectively. Furthermore, a significant urban-rural difference of population exposure was found. Additionally, population exposure in Shanghai was 2.9-8 times higher than the other major cities (7-year average: 192,000 μg·people/m³·km²). More importantly, the relative risks of lung cancer mortality in high-risk areas were 28%-33% higher than in low-risk areas. There were 12,574-14,504 total lung cancer deaths attributable to PM_2.5, and lung cancer deaths in each square kilometer of urban areas were 7-13 times higher than for rural areas. These results indicate that moderate-resolution information can help us understand the spatiotemporal variability of population exposure and related health risk in a high-density environment.

Identifying the Impact of Landscape Pattern on Ecosystem Services in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China

Clarifying the impact mechanisms of landscape patterns on ecosystem services is highly important for effective ecosystem protection, policymaking, and landscape planning. However, previous literature lacks knowledge about the impact mechanisms of landscape patterns on ecosystem services from a spatial perspective. Thus, this study measured landscape patterns and the ecosystem services value (ESV) using a series of landscape pattern metrics and an improved benefit transfer method based on land-use data from 2015. It explores the impact mechanisms of the landscape pattern metrics on the ESV using the ordinary least-squares method and spatial regression models in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations (MRYRUA), China. We found that forestland was the main landscape type in the MRYRUA, followed by cultivated land, and the fragmentation degree of cultivated land was significantly higher than that of forestland. The findings demonstrate that landscape pattern metrics had a significant impact on ecosystem services, but could vary greatly. Moreover, ecosystem services in the MRYRUA exhibited significant spatial spillover effects and cross-regional collaborative governance was an effective means of landscape planning. This paper acts as a scientific reference and effective guidance for landscape planning and regional ecosystem conservation in MRYRUA and other similarly fast-growing urban agglomerations.

A simple method to evaluate groundwater vulnerability in urbanizing agricultural regions

A methodology to evaluate groundwater vulnerability was developed and tested in a case study in the Central Valleys of the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, a region known for intensive agricultural activities and poor water management policies. An analysis was conducted to create and evaluate scenarios reflecting anthropogenic and natural stressors on groundwater using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems. Uncertainty in the vulnerability model was assessed using a Monte Carlo analysis. Five indices (abstraction (A_bs), pollution (P_o), runoff (Ru), groundwater recharge (Re), and marginalization (Ma)) were selected after an evaluation of the effects of population growth, climatology, hydrogeological features, and social marginalization on access to groundwater. Abstraction, pollution, and recharge rates are the main drivers of groundwater vulnerability, accounting for 87% of the vulnerability. The analysis revealed that the proposed model generates consistent results and contains low uncertainty. It also showed that more than 50% of the region's groundwater is moderately, and the vulnerability has become increasingly with abstraction, reduced recharge, and pollution (the most sensitive indices), indicating that groundwater in the Central Valleys is under great stress. Pollution and abstraction of groundwater resources are expected to rise in the more vulnerable areas, which will increase water crises and reduce access to water in rural communities. The approach and the indicators establish a baseline for the management and protection of water resources in developing countries where high-resolution data are lacking.

Assessing the relationship between anthropogenic heat release warming and building characteristics in Guangzhou: A sustainable development perspective

We assessed the spatial heterogeneity of warming due to total anthropogenic heat release (AHR) and building anthropogenic heat release under different heat release scenarios and its relationship with building properties in the highly urbanized portion of Guangzhou using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulation results show that different AHR scenarios result in different temperature rise outcomes. A rise of 0.40 °C and 0.23 °C results from a normal total AHR scenario and normal building AHR scenario, while a rise of 0.71 °C and 0.41 °C arises when total AHR and building AHR is doubled. This indicates that more anthropogenic heat results in a more serious warming effect. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity of the AHR-caused temperature rise is affected by the building area. The AHR-derived warming effect is most serious in high-height-medium-density (H-M) and high-height-high-density (H-H) building areas, where temperature rose by 0.36 °C and 0.34 °C due to building AHR under two AHR scenarios, while it was least serious in low-height-high-density (L-H) and high-height-low-density (H-L) areas, where temperature rose by 16 °C and 0.25 °C under two building AHR scenarios. When AHR is doubled, the hot spot of AHR-derived warming tends to become more concentrated. The quantitative relationship between building AHR-derived warming and building property data was assessed using a multiple linear regression model. The model shows that the combination of building height and building density provides better predictor of building AHR warming than either property alone; and the relationship is best predicted in L-H and H-L areas, with R² values of 0.68 and 0.79, respectively. Warming due to AHR should be considered as one of the most serious urban warming forces and the land surface properties are the key factors that influence AHR-derived warming. This study provides evidence for the significance of AHR in the urban environment and offers suggestions for mitigating urban thermal heating.

The spatial association of ecosystem services with land use and land cover change at the county level in China, 1995-2015

Ecosystem services are increasingly affected by land use and land cover change (LULCC) in China. However, the spatial association between LULCC and ecosystem services remains unclear, thus constraining effective land use and ecosystem conservation policymaking. This study attempts to fill this gap by examining the association between ecosystem services intensity (ESI) and LULCC from a spatial perspective at the county level in China. The adapted benefit transfer method was employed to measure the ESI based on LULCC data. LULCC was characterized and measured by single land use dynamic degree, integrated land use dynamic degree, land use intensity, and land use diversity. The results indicated that ESI levels in China experienced a continuously decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015, especially in large metropolitan areas. The relationship between ESI and LULCC exhibited both significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity. Overall, ESI and land use intensity had statistically significant negative associations. However, the association between ESI and LULCC varied greatly over space and in different time periods. The results have important implications for future delineation of ecological conservation priority zones, sustainable development of national land, and the integration of ESI into landscape planning.

Estimating long-term LULC changes in an agriculture-dominated basin using CORONA (1970) and LISS IV (2013-14) satellite images: a case study of Ramganga River, India

The basin of Ramganga River, a major tributary of Ganga, has seen rapid industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural growth in modern times, especially during and after the 1970s, with consequent changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) of the basin. Object-based classification of seldom-used CORONA images (for 1970) for historical LULC scenario and LISS IV (Resourcesat-2) images (for 2013-14) for the present scenario of the basin was performed with high overall accuracies of 93% and 87% and Kappa coefficients of 0.89 and 0.82 respectively. Object-based classification using the eCognition software tool combined with manual classification of the images revealed significant decrease in total forest cover (~ 485 km²) and riverbed (~ 498 km²) LULC classes along with correspondingly increased agriculture (~ 898 km²) and built-up (~ 313 km²) classes in the basin. Further, though Ramganga reservoir (spread over ~ 70 km²), operated since in 1974, has increased the water area by ~ 1295% in Afzalgarh sub-basin of the Ramganga Basin, the overall area of water class decreased by 1.64% in the basin, probably due to loss of ponds in agricultural lands. An upward shift of about 42 km in the confluence point of Ramganga and Gangan Rivers was also observed, which may be attributed to the course shift of Ramganga in a south-west direction.

Intercity Passenger Rails: Facilitating the Spatial Spillover Effects of Population and Employment Growth in the United States, 2000-2010

This research examines the association that intercity passenger rails have with population and employment growth at the county level in the continental United States from 2000 to 2010. This research adopts an integrated spatial regression approach that incorporates both spatial lag and spatial error dependence. The data come from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Land Developability Index, and the National Atlas of the United States. Population and employment change are regressed on intercity passenger rails, controlling for 14 socioeconomic variables. Intercity passenger rails are measured by the number of intercity passenger rail terminals in each county. The results suggest that the associations that intercity passenger rails have with population and employment change are both direct and indirect. Intercity passenger rails have a negative and direct association with population and employment change from 2000 to 2010. The Great Recession during this period may have compelled people to move out of their home county in search of jobs; having intercity passenger rails facilitated this process. The results also indicate that intercity passenger rails have a positive and indirect association with population and employment change. Population and employment change in one county influences those in the adjacent counties. This indirect association shows the spatial spillover effect of population and employment growth through passenger rails. The indirect association does not come from within the county; rather, it is a spread effect from its neighbors. This research suggests that intercity passenger rails, although built long ago, still play an important role in facilitating the spread of change and the integration of local communities into a larger regional economy.