Sequence of novel agents in multiple myeloma: An instrumental variable analysis

The impact of recent chemotherapy innovation on the longevity of myeloma patients: US and international evidence

The longevity of multiple myeloma patients increased sharply since the late 1990s. This increase coincided with the introduction of several important innovations in chemotherapy for myeloma. In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of recent chemotherapy innovation on the longevity of myeloma patients using both time-series US data and longitudinal data on 38 countries. We estimate that almost two-thirds (0.99 years) of the 1997-2005 increase in the life expectancy of American myeloma patients was due to an increase in the number of chemotherapy regimens now preferred by specialists. Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, this means that the cost per US life-year gained from post-1997 chemotherapy innovation is unlikely to have exceeded $46,000. We also investigate the impact of chemotherapy innovation on the myeloma mortality rate using longitudinal country-level data on 38 countries during the period 2002-2012. Countries that had larger increases in the number of chemotherapy regimens now preferred by specialists had larger subsequent declines in myeloma mortality rates, controlling for myeloma incidence. The (marginal) effect on the mortality rate of one additional preferred chemotherapy regimen is similar in other countries to its effect in the US. Non-US prices of two of the three new drugs were lower than US prices, so recent myeloma chemotherapy innovation may have been more cost-effective in other countries than it was in the US. Recent chemotherapy innovation has had a significant positive impact on the longevity of myeloma patients in the countries in which the drugs have been available.