A spatially-modelled snapshot of future marine macroalgal assemblages in southern Europe: Towards a broader Mediterranean region?

Temporal variability of sea surface temperature affects marine macrophytes range retractions as well as gradual warming

Record mean sea surface temperatures (SST) during the past decades and marine heatwaves have been identified as responsible for severe impacts on marine ecosystems, but the role of changes in the patterns of temporal variability under global warming has been much less studied. We compare descriptors of two time series of SST, encompassing extirpations (i.e. local extinctions) of six cold-temperate macroalgae species at their trailing range edge. We decompose the effects of gradual warming, extreme events and intrinsic variability (e.g. seasonality). We also relate the main factors determining macroalgae range shifts with their life cycles characteristics and thermal tolerance. We found extirpations of macroalgae were related to stretches of coast where autumn SST underwent warming, increased temperature seasonality, and decreased skewness over time. Regardless of the species, the persisting populations shared a common environmental domain, which was clearly differentiated from those experiencing local extinction. However, macroalgae species responded to temperature components in different ways, showing dissimilar resilience. Consideration of multiple thermal manifestations of climate change is needed to better understand local extinctions of habitat-forming species. Our study provides a framework for the incorporation of unused measures of environmental variability while analyzing the distributions of coastal species.

The thermal journey of macroalgae: Four decades of temperature-induced changes in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

Global warming is triggering significant shifts in temperate macroalgal communities worldwide, favoring small, warm-affinity species over large canopy-forming, cold-affinity species. The Cantabrian Sea, a region acutely impacted by climate change, is also witnessing this shift. This study delved into the impacts of increasing sea surface temperature on the subtidal macroalgal communities in the southeastern Bay of Biscay over the last four decades, by using data from the years 1982, 2007, 2014, and 2020. We found that temperature has shaped the community structure, with warm-affinity species steadily displacing their cold-affinity counterparts. Notably, new communities exhibited a profusion of smaller algal species, explaining the observed increased biodiversity within the area. In the last period investigated (2014-2020), we observed a partial recovery of the communities, coinciding with cooler sea surface temperatures. Shallow algal communities were more reactive to temperature variations than deeper communities, possibly associated with higher exposure to increased temperatures. Our study offered insights into the intricate relationship between the changes in ocean temperature and algal species in the southeastern Bay of Biscay, shedding light on the ongoing ecological shifts in this region.

Short-term response of macroalgal communities to ocean warming in the Southern Bay of Biscay

Climate change is causing significant shifts in biological communities worldwide, including the degradation of marine communities. Previous research has predicted that southern Bay of Biscay canopy-forming subtidal macroalgal communities will shift into turf-forming Mediterranean-like communities by the end of the century. These predictions were based on a community-environment relationship model that used macroalgal abundance data and IPCC environmental projections. We have tested the short-term accuracy of that model by resampling the same communities and locations four years later and found the short-term predictions to be consistent with the observed communities. Changes in sea surface temperature were positively correlated with changes in the Community Temperature Index, suggesting that macroalgal communities had responded quickly to global warming. The changes over four years were significant, but canopy-forming macroalgae were more resilient in local sites with favourable temperature conditions. Our study demonstrated that updating predictive models with new data has the potential to yield reliable predictions and inform effective conservation strategies.