Risk assessment for marine spills along European coastlines

Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts

This study analyzes historical trends and forecasts of spill risks in coastal counties along the U.S. Pacific, including Alaska and Hawaii. The method calculates spill impact, which rises with size but diminishes with age and distance from the coast. Over the past two decades, spill risks in California and Washington have increased significantly. Coastal counties in Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay have seen the highest increases, surpassing 2000 levels by 79 % and 39 %, respectively. Alaska experienced a moderate rise, while Oregon and Hawaii had smaller but noteworthy increases. Ocean currents may reduce risk by 38 % on average. Most counties are expected to experience increasing spill risks, particularly in Southern California and Southwest Washington, which could see nearly a 50 % increase by 2033 compared to present levels. These findings can help coastal zone monitoring and inform policies for protecting coastal regions, regulating marine transportation and reducing spill vulnerability.

A hybrid Monte Carlo simulation risk model for oil exploration projects

A new 3-D Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Risk Model is proposed in this study. The wind, wave, current, climate change, and tsunami sub-models of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Transport and Water Quality Model HYDROTAM-3D are interrelated with MCS, to obtain probability distributions for the simulation of environmental conditions. This is the only model that can incorporate the tsunami, storm, and sea level rise risks in oil exploration projects. The spill risk index (SRI) of 50 blue barrels spilled due to a blowout from the rig/port during fuel supply was circa 1 ton/ship as Tier I with an average annual occurrence probability of 1.0 × 10-6. The discharge of 4000 bbls for 6 h was modeled, resulting in the SRI of 546 metric tons from the riser blowout with SRI = 0.2 per meter, indicating a Tier II risk. The mean arrival time of this spill was found by MCS as 145 min.

A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development, application and evaluation

Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed highly saline reverse estuary that is exposed to the risk of oil spills in offshore oil and gas activities. In the early 2000s, a specific version of NOAA's Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP II) was developed for Persian Gulf to assist regional organizations in preparing oil spill contingency plans. In this research, a new stochastic model is developed to cover the limitations of TAP II. The new model is based on an advanced trajectory model, which is now linked with high resolution spatiotemporal data of the wind and sea current. In a case study, the developed model is compared with TAP II, and evaluated by multiple tests designed for analysis of uncertainty, sensitivity, reliability and variability. The case study proved the applicability of the new model, and the evaluation tests provided useful information for the future development of the model.

Initial environmental risk assessment of hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) spill accidents to mitigate its damages

In this study, a system was established to perform an initial environmental risk assessment of hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) spill accidents. Initial environmental risk assessment was performed using exposure and hazard assessments. An integrated hydrodynamic and chemical fate model was used to predict HNS concentrations at harbors, taking into account local environmental conditions. To consider the worst case HNS spill accident, the spill amount of 10,000 tonnages, was used for this study. The results show that highly soluble HNS are fatal to marine organisms during the neap tide. The results were based on a hypothetical worst case HNS spill accident and, not any specific actual HNS spill accident. Nevertheless, the method and system developed in this study, which includes the physical/chemical properties of 158 priority HNS, can be readily used to perform an initial environmental risk assessment for future HNS spill accidents.

Probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells in Persian Gulf

Oil spills in the marine environment can have serious environmental, social and economic impacts. These impacts may be of transnational nature, and this makes the oil spill problem an international issue. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a common structured methodology for oil spill risk assessment. In this research, a general framework is presented for probabilistic risk assessment of oil spill from offshore oil wells. A case study is also performed in Persian Gulf to quantify the risk posed by 357 offshore wells to the near-shore receptors. First, thousands of hypothetical spill scenarios of different volumes are defined and simulated using a Lagrangian particle tracking model. Then, the result of the simulations is statistically processed to generate the risk networks and risk maps. The result of this research shed light on the importance of the pattern of environmental forcing elements and the frequency of spills in oil spill risk assessment.