Predictions of sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem dynamics under future fishing, forced-biomass and SST scenarios

Prediction of fishing intensity and trends across South China Sea biogeographic zones

The volume of industrial fishing in the South China Sea ranks among the top global sustainable fisheries concerns of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). To better understand the scale of management challenges, biogeographic zones of the SCS were characterized, and within each a multivariate GAM (General Additive Model) was fitted to predict and map the complete fishing activities from 2017 to 2020. Model variables, some incomplete or with gaps, included: VIIRS DNB night-time light imagery; Global Fisheries Watch (GFW) data; satellite Ocean Colour; Sea Surface Temperature; and bathymetry data. Four biogeographic zones with differing fishing patterns and trends were identified. We used cross-validation and the GAM model's own tuning method for model prediction accuracy determination, which performed well in four biogeographic zones (R2 respectively: 0.62, 0.68, 0.74 and 0.71). High-intensity fishing grounds are mainly distributed in offshore continental shelf areas. From 2017 to 2019, high-intensity fishing grounds were located near the Beibu Gulf of Vietnam, south Vietnam, part of the Gulf of Thailand and the central Java Sea, where fishing effort greater than 50 h exceeded average annual SCS fishing intensity for several years. By season, intensity and extent of fishing in Spring were largest. In 2020, due to the impact of COVID-19, except for Spring, fishing volume generally decreased. Our experimental results provide new insights and an adaptable biogeographic modelling methodology to map the scale and intensity of regional fishing activities more accurately and completely. This more comprehensive database, that takes account of intrinsic biogeographic fishery context, will help improve and strengthen the regulation of fishing activities around the world.

What drives the recruitment of European sardine in Atlanto-Iberian waters (SW Europe)? Insights from a 22-year analysis

The European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) is the most abundant and socio-economically important small pelagic fish species in Western Iberia Upwelling Ecosystem. As a result of a long series of low recruitments, sardine biomass off Western Iberia has greatly reduced since the 2000s. Recruitment of small pelagic fish is mainly dependent on environmental factors. In order to identify the key drivers of sardine recruitment, it is essential to understand its temporal and spatial variability. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive suite of atmospheric, oceanographic, and biological variables spanning 1998-2020 (22 years) were extracted from satellite datasets. These were then related to in situ recruitment estimates obtained from yearly spring acoustic surveys carried out along two different hotspots of sardine recruitment of the southern Iberian sardine stock (NW Portugal and Gulf of Cadiz). Sardine recruitment in Atlanto-Iberian waters appears to be driven by distinct combinations of environmental factors, although sea surface temperature was identified as the main driver in both regions. Physical conditions that favour larval feeding and retention, such as shallower mixed layers and onshore transport, were also seen to play a vital role in modulating sardine recruitment. Furthermore, high sardine recruitment in NW Iberia was associated with optimal conditions in the winter (January-February). In contrast, recruitment strength of sardine off the Gulf of Cadiz were associated with the optimal conditions during late autumn and spring. The results from this work provide valuable insights to further understand the dynamics of sardine off Iberia, with potential to contribute to the sustainable management of sardine stocks in Atlanto-Iberian waters, particularly under climate change.