Estudio epidemiológico y comparación de los índices pronósticos del MD Anderson Cancer Center y el índice del Gruppo Italiano Malattie Ematologiche Maligne dell′ Adulto en pacientes con leucemia linfática crónica de células B

Prognostic models for newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common cancer of the lymphatic system in Western countries. Several clinical and biological factors for CLL have been identified. However, it remains unclear which of the available prognostic models combining those factors can be used in clinical practice to predict long-term outcome in people newly-diagnosed with CLL.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, describe and appraise all prognostic models developed to predict overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or treatment-free survival (TFS) in newly-diagnosed (previously untreated) adults with CLL, and meta-analyse their predictive performances.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (from January 1950 to June 2019 via Ovid), Embase (from 1974 to June 2019) and registries of ongoing trials (to 5 March 2020) for development and validation studies of prognostic models for untreated adults with CLL. In addition, we screened the reference lists and citation indices of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all prognostic models developed for CLL which predict OS, PFS, or TFS, provided they combined prognostic factors known before treatment initiation, and any studies that tested the performance of these models in individuals other than the ones included in model development (i.e. 'external model validation studies'). We included studies of adults with confirmed B-cell CLL who had not received treatment prior to the start of the study. We did not restrict the search based on study design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form to collect information based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Independent pairs of review authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). For models that were externally validated at least three times, we aimed to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of their predictive performance, notably their calibration (proportion of people predicted to experience the outcome who do so) and discrimination (ability to differentiate between people with and without the event) using a random-effects model. When a model categorised individuals into risk categories, we pooled outcome frequencies per risk group (low, intermediate, high and very high). We did not apply GRADE as guidance is not yet available for reviews of prognostic models.

MAIN RESULTS

From 52 eligible studies, we identified 12 externally validated models: six were developed for OS, one for PFS and five for TFS. In general, reporting of the studies was poor, especially predictive performance measures for calibration and discrimination; but also basic information, such as eligibility criteria and the recruitment period of participants was often missing. We rated almost all studies at high or unclear risk of bias according to PROBAST. Overall, the applicability of the models and their validation studies was low or unclear; the most common reasons were inappropriate handling of missing data and serious reporting deficiencies concerning eligibility criteria, recruitment period, observation time and prediction performance measures. We report the results for three models predicting OS, which had available data from more than three external validation studies: CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) This score includes five prognostic factors: age, clinical stage, IgHV mutational status, B2-microglobulin and TP53 status. Calibration: for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, the pooled five-year survival per risk group from validation studies corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study. In the very high-risk group, predicted survival from CLL-IPI was lower than observed from external validation studies. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of seven external validation studies (3307 participants, 917 events) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.77). The 95% prediction interval (PI) of this model for the c-statistic, which describes the expected interval for the model's discriminative ability in a new external validation study, ranged from 0.59 to 0.83. Barcelona-Brno score Aimed at simplifying the CLL-IPI, this score includes three prognostic factors: IgHV mutational status, del(17p) and del(11q). Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk group, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of four external validation studies (1755 participants, 416 events) was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.67); 95% PI 0.59 to 0.68. MDACC 2007 index score The authors presented two versions of this model including six prognostic factors to predict OS: age, B2-microglobulin, absolute lymphocyte count, gender, clinical stage and number of nodal groups. Only one validation study was available for the more comprehensive version of the model, a formula with a nomogram, while seven studies (5127 participants, 994 events) validated the simplified version of the model, the index score. Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk groups, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of the seven external validation studies for the index score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70); 95% PI 0.51 to 0.77.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of published studies of prognostic models for OS, PFS or TFS for newly-diagnosed, untreated adults with CLL, only a minority of these (N = 12) have been externally validated for their respective primary outcome. Three models have undergone sufficient external validation to enable meta-analysis of the model's ability to predict survival outcomes. Lack of reporting prevented us from summarising calibration as recommended. Of the three models, the CLL-IPI shows the best discrimination, despite overestimation. However, performance of the models may change for individuals with CLL who receive improved treatment options, as the models included in this review were tested mostly on retrospective cohorts receiving a traditional treatment regimen. In conclusion, this review shows a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of both prognostic model development and external validation studies. For prognostic models to be used as tools in clinical practice, the development of the models (and their subsequent validation studies) should adapt to include the latest therapy options to accurately predict performance. Adaptations should be timely.

The International Prognostic Index for Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Has the Higher Value in Predicting Overall Outcome Compared with the Barcelona-Brno Biomarkers Only Prognostic Model and the MD Anderson Cancer Center Prognostic Index

In recent years, new prognostic indexes (PIs) for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), which include clinical, biological, and genetic variables, have been validated, highlighting the MD Anderson Cancer Center prognostic index (MDACC PI), the CLL-international prognostic index (CLL-IPI), and the Barcelona-Brno biomarkers only prognostic model. The aim of this study is to compare the utility of these PIs in a cohort of Spanish patients. A retrospective analysis of 696 unselected CLL patients newly diagnosed and previously untreated from different Spanish institutions was performed. The MDACC PI, the CLL-IPI, and the biomarkers only PI were applied to these patients, and a comparison of the three PIs was performed. With a median follow-up time of 46 months, 394 patients were alive and 187 had received treatment. The median overall survival (OS) was 173 months and the median time to first therapy (TTFT) was 32 months. Significant differences were obtained in OS and TTFT for all subgroups when applying these PIs, with the CLL-IPI being the one with the higher c-index (0.676 for OS and 0.757 for TTFT). The three PIs were able to discriminate patients in different prognostic subgroups. In our cohort, the CLL-IPI showed higher power in predicting TTFT and OS.

Economic evaluation of obinutuzumab in combination with chlorambucil in first-line treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Spain

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of obinutuzumab in combination with chlorambucil (GClb) versus rituximab plus chlorambucil (RClb) in the treatment of adults with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and with comorbidities that make them unsuitable for full-dose fludarabine-based therapy, from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System.

Methods

A Markov model was developed with three mutually exclusive health states: progression-free survival (with or without treatment), progression, and death. Survival time for the two treatments was modeled based on the results of CLL11 clinical trial and external sources. Each health state was associated with a utility value and direct medical costs. The utilities were obtained from a utility elicitation study conducted in the UK. Costs and general background mortality data were obtained from published Spanish sources. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were conducted, with a time frame of 20 years. The health outcomes were measured as life years (LYs) gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Efficiency was measured as the cost per LY or per QALY gained of the most effective regimen.

Results

In the deterministic base case analysis, each patient treated with GClb resulted in 0.717 LYs gained and 0.673 QALYs gained versus RClb. The cost per LY and per QALY gained with GClb versus RClb was €23,314 and €24,838, respectively. The results proved stable in most of the univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, with a probabilistic cost per QALY gained of €24,734 (95% confidence interval: €21,860–28,367).

Conclusion

Using GClb to treat patients with previously untreated CLL for whom full-dose fludarabine-based therapy is unsuitable allows significant gains in terms of LYs and QALYs versus treatment with RClb. Treatment with GClb versus RClb can be regarded as efficient when considered the willingness to pay thresholds commonly used in Spain.

Lenalidomide and chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Lenalidomide is an oral immunomodulatory drug used in multiple myeloma and myelodysplastic syndrome and most recently it has shown to be effective in the treatment of various lymphoproliferative disorders such as chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The mechanism of action of lenalidomide varies depending on the pathology, and in the case of CLL, it appears to primarily act by restoring the damaged mechanisms of tumour immunosurveillance. This review discusses the potential mechanism of action and efficacy of lenalidomide, alone or in combination, in treatment of CLL and its toxic effects such as tumor lysis syndrome (TLS) and tumor flare reaction (TFR), that make its management different from other hematologic malignancies.

IGHV gene mutational status and 17p deletion are independent molecular predictors in a comprehensive clinical-biological prognostic model for overall survival prediction in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Background

Prognostic index for survival estimation by clinical-demographic variables were previously proposed in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. Our objective was to test in a large retrospective cohort of CLL patients the prognostic power of biological and clinical-demographic variable in a comprehensive multivariate model. A new prognostic index was proposed.

Methods

Overall survival and time to treatment in 620 untreated CLL patients were analyzed retrospectively to evaluate the multivariate independence and predictive power of mutational status of immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene segments (IGHV), high-risk chromosomal aberration such as 17p or 11q deletions, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression, age, gender, Binet stage, β2-microglobulin levels, absolute lymphocyte count and number of lymph node regions.

Results

IGHV mutational status and 17p deletion were the sole biological variables with independent prognostic relevance in a multivariate model for overall survival, which included easily measurable clinical parameters (Binet staging, β2-microglobulin levels) and demographics (age and gender). Analysis of time to treatment in Binet A patients below 70 years of age showed that IGHV was the most important predictor. A novel 6-variable clinical-biological prognostic index was developed and internally validated, which assigned 3 points for Binet C stage, 2 points/each for Binet B stage and for age > 65 years, 1 point/each for male gender, high β2-microglobulin levels, presence of an unmutated IGHV gene status or 17p deletion. Patients were classified at low-risk (score = 0-1; 21%), intermediate-risk (score 2-5; 63% of cases), high-risk (score 6-9; 16% of cases). Projected 5-year overall survival was 98%, 90% and 58% in low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. A nomogram for individual patient survival estimation was also proposed.

Conclusions

Data indicate that IGHV mutational status and 17p deletion may be integrated with clinical-demographic variables in new prognostic tools to estimate overall survival.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia: putting new treatment options into perspective

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a monoclonal B-cell malignancy that afflicts mainly older individuals. Since many patients are diagnosed in the earliest stages, the course of the disease may be indolent and asymptomatic, requiring no therapy. For those who are diagnosed in advanced stages or whose disease becomes symptomatic, treatment is indicated. Advances in identifying prognostic factors, such as cytogenetics, IgHV mutational status, CD38, TP53, and ZAP-70, are helping physicians better predict who is more likely to have progressive disease and thus needs more frequent monitoring. Some of these prognostic factors are also helping to guide therapy choices as they can predict response to treatment and/or duration of response. Recent advances in treatment options have moved beyond traditional management with alkylating agents and purine analogs into regimens combining these two chemotherapy classes with monoclonal antibodies targeting CD20. Chemoimmunotherapy with fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab (FCR) has become the most effective therapy option to date for CLL. Compared with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide, FCR has shown higher complete response rates and longer progression-free survival. Bendamustine, a unique alkylating agent with purine analog properties, has recently been approved by the FDA for treatment of CLL and provides a new alternative to existing therapies. Initial trials combining bendamustine with rituximab are showing promise for both untreated and relapsed/refractory disease. Other agents recently approved and/or being tested, such as ofatumumab, flavopiridol, and lenalidomide, are demonstrating activity in the relapsed setting.