Geography and genealogy of the human host harbouring a distinctive drug-resistant strain of tuberculosis

Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission often occurs within a household or community, leading to heterogeneous spatial patterns. However, apparent spatial clustering of TB could reflect ongoing transmission or co-location of risk factors and can vary considerably depending on the type of data available, the analysis methods employed and the dynamics of the underlying population. Thus, we aimed to review methodological approaches used in the spatial analysis of TB burden.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of TB published in English using Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Scopus and Web of Science databases with no date restriction from inception to 15 February 2017. The protocol for this systematic review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO ( CRD42016036655 ).

RESULTS

We identified 168 eligible studies with spatial methods used to describe the spatial distribution (n = 154), spatial clusters (n = 73), predictors of spatial patterns (n = 64), the role of congregate settings (n = 3) and the household (n = 2) on TB transmission. Molecular techniques combined with geospatial methods were used by 25 studies to compare the role of transmission to reactivation as a driver of TB spatial distribution, finding that geospatial hotspots are not necessarily areas of recent transmission. Almost all studies used notification data for spatial analysis (161 of 168), although none accounted for undetected cases. The most common data visualisation technique was notification rate mapping, and the use of smoothing techniques was uncommon. Spatial clusters were identified using a range of methods, with the most commonly employed being Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic followed by local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's local Gi(d) tests. In the 11 papers that compared two such methods using a single dataset, the clustering patterns identified were often inconsistent. Classical regression models that did not account for spatial dependence were commonly used to predict spatial TB risk. In all included studies, TB showed a heterogeneous spatial pattern at each geographic resolution level examined.

CONCLUSIONS

A range of spatial analysis methodologies has been employed in divergent contexts, with all studies demonstrating significant heterogeneity in spatial TB distribution. Future studies are needed to define the optimal method for each context and should account for unreported cases when using notification data where possible. Future studies combining genotypic and geospatial techniques with epidemiologically linked cases have the potential to provide further insights and improve TB control.

Signatures of Selection at Drug Resistance Loci in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death by an infectious disease, and global TB control efforts are increasingly threatened by drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Unlike most bacteria, where lateral gene transfer is an important mechanism of resistance acquisition, resistant M. tuberculosis arises solely by de novo chromosomal mutation. Using whole-genome sequencing data from two natural populations of M. tuberculosis, we characterized the population genetics of known drug resistance loci using measures of diversity, population differentiation, and convergent evolution. We found resistant subpopulations to be less diverse than susceptible subpopulations, consistent with ongoing transmission of resistant M. tuberculosis. A subset of resistance genes ("sloppy targets") were characterized by high diversity and multiple rare variants; we posit that a large genetic target for resistance and relaxation of purifying selection contribute to high diversity at these loci. For "tight targets" of selection, the path to resistance appeared narrower, evidenced by single favored mutations that arose numerous times in the phylogeny and segregated at markedly different frequencies in resistant and susceptible subpopulations. These results suggest that diverse genetic architectures underlie drug resistance in M. tuberculosis and that combined approaches are needed to identify causal mutations. Extrapolating from patterns observed for well-characterized genes, we identified novel candidate variants involved in resistance. The approach outlined here can be extended to identify resistance variants for new drugs, to investigate the genetic architecture of resistance, and when phenotypic data are available, to find candidate genetic loci underlying other positively selected traits in clonal bacteria. IMPORTANCEMycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a significant burden on global health. Antibiotic treatment imposes strong selective pressure on M. tuberculosis populations. Identifying the mutations that cause drug resistance in M. tuberculosis is important for guiding TB treatment and halting the spread of drug resistance. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of M. tuberculosis isolates can be used to identify novel mutations mediating drug resistance and to predict resistance patterns faster than traditional methods of drug susceptibility testing. We have used WGS from natural populations of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis to characterize effects of selection for advantageous mutations on patterns of diversity at genes involved in drug resistance. The methods developed here can be used to identify novel advantageous mutations, including new resistance loci, in M. tuberculosis and other clonal pathogens.